Jimmy Boyd
5* Hawks +3
3* Duquesne -12
Jeff Benton
20 Dime Oklahoma
10 Dime Creighton
Oklahoma
I’m fully aware that Oklahoma has been a complete and total disaster away from home this season, losing 11 of 12 road/neutral-site contests while going just 4-7 ATS in true road games.
I’m fully aware that Oklahoma comes into this game having lost five in a row (2-3 ATS), including back-to-back double-digit road losses at Missouri (84-61 as a 15½-point underdog) and Kansas State (77-62 as a 14½-point underdog). In fact, I backed K-State in that game on Saturday and cashed a 15 Dimer.
And I’m fully aware that Texas A&M has won four in a row overall (with three of those victories coming on the road) and three in a row against the Sooners (including a 69-51 pasting at Oklahoma on Jan. 8, the Big 12 opener for both schools).
So I’m sure you’re wondering: “Why on God’s green earth would you risk your five-game Big 12 winning streak on Oklahoma tonight?” Answer: Because this pointspread is reflective of all the facts I just pointed out – meaning the oddsmakers have inflated the number – and because Texas A&M simply cannot be trusted to cover this big of a number against anyone.
To that second point, consider that since opening conference play with blowout wins over Oklahoma and Oklahoma State (71-48), the Aggies are 6-4 SU and 3-7 ATS. Two of their losses were at home to Texas (69-49) and Baylor (76-74 in overtime), while their six victories were as follows: 91-89 overtime win over Missouri; 64-56 win over Kansas State; 73-70 overtime win over Colorado; 70-67 win over Texas Tech; 71-66 win over Iowa State; 67-66 win over Oklahoma State.
That’s six wins (including two in overtime) by a total of 20 points. And tonight, A&M – which hasn’t won a game by more than eight points in the last five weeks and is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games – is laying 12½ to 13 points. Ridiculous.
Oklahoma has been very competitive in recent trips to College Station, losing by scores of 65-62 last year (but cashing as a 7½-point underdog), 60-52 in 2008 and 70-61 in 2007. And in 2009, the Blake Griffin-led Sooners beat the Aggies on their home court 69-63. In fact, OU has cashed in six of its last seven at Texas A&M (and the road team is on a 5-0 ATS run in this series).
One final point to make with respect to this pointspread: With the exception of the 91-89 overtime game against Missouri (which doesn’t play defense), Texas A&M hasn’t scored more than 74 points in a Big 12 game all season. And if you eliminate the Missouri result, the Aggies are averaging just 65 ppg in conference play. Assuming they hit that average tonight, to cover this spread, they’ll have to hold Oklahoma to 52 points. Well, the Sooners are averaging 68.1 ppg over their last nine, with a low of exactly 52 against Texas (which is far and away the best defensive team in the Big 12).
Too many points here, guys. Take the oddsmakers generosity and watch the visiting Sooners keep this one within six points.
Creighton
Love Wichita State … when it plays on the road. The Shockers have won nine straight on the highway while going 7-0-1 ATS in their eight Missouri Valley Conference road games (including a 68-54 rout at Creighton as a three-point favorite). At home, though, Wichita is a totally different team.
Wichita State has dropped two in a row in its building (Friday’s 68-67 Bracket Buster loss to VCU as a nine-point home favorite, preceded by a shocking 56-53 loss to Southern Illinois as a 15½-point chalk), and the Shockers are just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
Meanwhile, Creighton won its first two conference road games but has lost its last five in a row. However, those five losses were by margins of 6 (overtime), 5, 2, 1, 5, 8 and 3 points. Also, the Bluejays are 6-2 ATS when visiting Missouri Valley foes and 5-2 ATS as a conference underdog. Even better, Creighton is on ATS runs of 12-5 in all conference games, 10-4 in all road games, 6-1 as a road underdog, 6-1 following a SU loss (the Bluejays are coming off Saturday’s XX Bracket Buster loss at Akron) and 5-1 on Wednesdays.
And even thought Wichita State got a win at Creighton last month to improve to 4-0-1 ATS in this rivalry, the Bluejays are still 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to Wichita and the road team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
Finally, don’t ignore the look-ahead factor here, as the Shockers travel to Missouri State on Saturday in a game that will determine the regular-season MVC champ. So ask yourself this: Do you trust a team that has struggled recently to cover numbers at home to win by double digits when its biggest game of the year is up next? I sure don’t.
Brandon Lang
Tennessee Chattanooga +5
Chris Jordan
600♦ Wisconsin
Teddy Covers
Big Ticket: Grizzlies -3
EZWinners
Indiana
Keith Glantz
100* St. Johns
100* Nebraska
25* Temple
25* Arkansas
Sam Paolini
20* LA Kings
Coyotes / Lightning Under 5.5
Helmut
Duke Over 139.5
Georgetown Under 131
Power Play Wins
Georgetown -7
RAS
New Mexico -2.5
Young Guns
3* Houston Rockets
Great Lakes Sports
3* Miami Ohio
RAS
Virginia Commonwealth/Drexel Under 126
Purdue/Indiana Over 136.5
Georgia State/William & Mary Over 124.5
Purdue/Indiana Over 136.5
Tim Trushel
Jazz / Mavs Under