Dr Bob
NBA Opinion/Possible Best Bet
Chicago (-9) over TORONTO
The Raptors played last night while the Bulls take the floor for their first post All-Star break game. Toronto applies to a negative 90-174-6 ATS situation that is based on their lack of rest. My ratings favor Chicago by 8 points and I’m not fond of giving up any line value in the NBA. I’ll lean with the Bulls based on the good situation at -8½ or -9 points and I’d take Chicago in a 2-Star Best Bet at -8 or less.
Wednesday College Opinion/Possible Best Bet
DePaul (+13½) over ST JOHN’S
DePaul has improved throughout the season under first year coach Oliver Purnell, as the Blue Demons enter this game on a 5 game spread winning streak. DePaul applies to a very good 91-35-1 ATS big underdog momentum situation based on their spread winning streak and the Blue Demons are now 24-6-1 ATS as a double-digit dog, including 9-3 ATS this season under Purnell. St. John’s, meanwhile, is just 1-6 ATS as a favorite of 8 or more. My ratings favor St. John’s by 14½ points and the line opened at 15 points as has come down, so the line value is not there. However, the situation is strong enough to lean with DePaul at +13 or more and I’d take DePaul in a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more.
Alatex Sports
20* New Mexico -2
Sam Clayton
3* Indiana +5.5
Final triple of the Big Ten regular season tonight and it's on the Hoosiers, who held their own against Purdue two weeks ago at Mackey Arena before losing steam down the stretch. This is a great scenario to back the Crimson and Cream here given the perception of the two teams and even more importantly, the situation at hand. There is absolutely no love loss between the two in-state rivals and IU has been on the short end of the stick the last four games against the Boilers. Outside of the Eric Gordon drama and the ensuing rivalry build-up with Illinois the past four years --- the Hoosiers beat the Illini outright earlier this season --- this is the most important game for the Indiana basketball program every single season. Regardless of who little brother is (Purdue has CLEARLY been better since the Kelvin Sampson era came to an end), I always explore reasons to back the underdog in this rivalry.
Purdue is flying high after knocking off No. 3 Ohio State over the weekend in a huge statement slash revenge game. The energy in West Lafayette was incredible and the Boilers bottled up all the home crowd energy en route to a pretty convincing win. E'Twaun Moore finished with a career-high 38 points thanks to an unconscious 7-of-10 shooting spree from downtown and everything was peachy for Matt Painter's squad. What does this have to do with tonight's game, you ask? Well, quite honestly, you're paying quite the premium backing Purdue, a team that's had some serious shooting woes away from home and has to go into a hostile environment in Bloomington and beat their revenge-bent rivals by two possessions. Hmm. Prime letdown situation if you ask me, especially considering how badly Indiana wants to exert some revenge of their own. IU will be motivated and undoubtedly pumped up for this game. Parlay that with the fact that Hoosier basketball is the ONLY thing that matters in Bloomington and this Purdue side starts to get uglier by the moment.
Late Tuesday night, I went back and watched the tape from the first meeting and was very impressed with Tom Crean's defensive gameplan for JaJuan Johnson. The pre-season All-American never really settled in, going only 4-of-10 from the field. Crean threw multiple looks at JJ, mixed and matched defenders, and the help defense was tremendous. The Hoosiers don't have that marquee cog in the middle that can single-handedly take JJ out of the game, but they've got two blue-collar bruisers in Tom Pritchard and Derek Elston that give Indiana the checkmark in the toughness and physicality category. Defensively, Johnson is the only true post defender and he's the best in the conference in that forte. However, IU's Christian Watford (who missed the first meeting with a hand injury) presents a serious matchup problem for the Boiler frontcourt because of his ability to score from literally anywhere on the floor. Watford's stroke gets better seemingly every game and JJ could definitely run into trouble guarding a guy with finesse on the low block that can also step out and shoot the rock from mid-range and behind the arc.
If I can channel my inner-Mike Hook for a second, this game has public disaster written all over it. Purdue is a great basketball team, there's absolutely no question about it. Along with Ohio State, the Boilers have the best chances to run the table in the conference tourney and make a run for Houston. That said, tonight is a dangerous spot to back them going up against a live Indiana team that shoots 50 percent at the Assembly Hall and has three players that can catch fire from the perimeter. Jordan Hulls and Verdell Jones are very solid shooters, but they bring so much more to the table than a sweet stroke. Both are great at getting a piece of the paint, causing the defense to collapse and kicking out to the wings --- watch out for Matt Roth roaming around the perimeter. At home, IU's shots are going to find the bottom of the net; that's just how they roll. Running the point, Hulls is calm and collected and he's never been one to rush into a shot or let one rip from 26 feet like some point guards I know (cough, cough McCamey).
There is no doubt in my mind that the public is going to be all over Purdue given their position in the conference standings, their potential to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament and their HUGE win Sunday against Ohio State. At the time I'm clacking away on my keyboard (4:05 am CT), Purdue has received 93 percent of the near 2,000 bets made --- yet the line has already reversed a full point at a couple shops. That strong RLM tells me everything I need to know; I'm letting it ride with Indiana, an unpopular team at the window that just so happens to have all their eggs in one basket for this game. The energy at the Assembly Hall is going to be electric for this televised game, the versatile Watford is back into the fold and I would not be surprised if Indiana's David plays Purdue's Goliath down to the final buzzer. The best part: we've got two possessions of wiggle room and are rolling with a team that warms up with candy striped pants.
Chip Chirimbes
Atlanta Hawks vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: Atlanta Hawks +3
The Hawks are coming off a much expected beating by the Lakers last night as most felt the Los Angeles was not going to drop their fourth straight. The Phoenix Suns (27-27, #23-29-1) who is only 11-17-1 against the points at home have already defeated the Hawks in Atlanta and now it's turn. The Suns have dropped their last three at home and the Hawks will make it four tonight.
Joseph D'Amico
Purdue vs. Indiana
Play: Purdue -5
Purdue is red-hot, winning 4 in a row both SU and ATS. In their L2 contests, the Boilermakers took down both the Badgers and Buckeyes. The team is striding. Purdue is led by JaJuan Johnson. The Forward is averaging 20.5 PPG and 7.7 RPG. The back court duo of E’Twuan Moore and Anthony Johnson are combining for 35.6 PPG and 12.4 RPG. The Boilermakers already took down the Hoosiers 67-53 about 2 weeks ago. Laying 13 ½ at home, they failed to cover. In this road matchup, there is a short number of – 5 ½. They face an Indiana team that lost 4 in a row and 7 of their L10 SU. They have failed to cover their L2 home stands. Top-scorer Christian Watford is listed as questionable with a hand injury. With or without the standout Forward, Indiana doesn’t have the guns to match up here. The Boilermakers are 5-0 ATS their L5 games played as a favorite, 4-0 ATS their L4 vs. the Big 10, and 4-0 ATS their L4 overall. Take Purdue.
David Malinsky
4* MILWAUKEE over NEW YORK
We will go right into play here with both short-term and long-germ notions working for us. The short-term tells us that the Bucks are much more ready to play right now, having had that tune-up win over the Timberwolves to work out some kinks, while New York not only brings the obvious chemistry issues into play as those new faces try to mesh, but also the rust for holdovers that will be playing for only the second time in 11 days. But the long-term is equally as important.
Milwaukee is an under-rated item, having had to play without Brandon Jennings, Andrew Bogut, Carlos Delfino, John Salmons and Corey Maggette at various times because of injuries. It is certainly not too late to put a playoff run together at only 3.5 games out of the final spot in the east, and as always we will see a Scott Skiles team bring the right work ethic to make that happen. They have been particularly adept at “grinding” in spots like this, going 13-4 ATS when playing the second night of a back-to-back on the road the past two seasons.
Neither the short-term nor the long-term for the Knicks may be what the markets are projecting. It is naturally going to take some time to develop a chemistry, but even when they do this is a group that is lacking on defense, on the boards, and in terms of depth. And that assumes that Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony can be a fit, which is absolutely not guaranteed to happen. As for that new lineup creating a scouting headache for the opposition, the last game that the Bucks played before the All Star break was against Denver, so there has been a recent look at both Anthony and Billups, and we can expect Skiles to turn this into a half-court slog that can fully tax all of the New York issues.
MTi Sports
Kings / Magic Under 204.5
The Magic are in the midst of a long homestand, giving them an excellent opportunity to move up in the Eastern Conference standings. They have won two straight, holding their opponent to 75 and 76 points respectively. We see no reason for them to change tactics here. We’ll play the under.
The Magic catch the Kings off a game last night in Miami. The results of that game activate many UNDER trends for Sacramento. First of all, the Kings are 0-10 OU (-20.6 ppg) since February 20, 2010 on the road after a loss in which Beno Udrih took fewer than 10 shots. It’s great to have a trend that involves a team’s point guard that have a 20+ point average margin. Further, six of the ten games are from THIS season.
In addition, Sacramento is 0-6 OU (-21.2 ppg) since November 24, 2008 after Jason Thompson shot better than 66% from the field the last two.
The Magic are 1-17-1 OU (-13.6 ppg) since December 23, 2009 at home after a win in which they scored fewer points than expected, including 0-7 OU since November 15th.
Also, Orlando is 0-11-1 OU (-12.5 ppg) since February 26, 2010 with at least one day of rest after a game in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers and 0-7 OU (-11.0 ppg) since January 12, 2010 with two or more days of rest when they held their opponent to fewer than 85 points in their last game.
Finally, the Magic are 0-5 OU (-18.7 ppg) when their opponent is playing in at least their fourth straight road game, 0-5 OU (-12.0 ppg) with two or more days of rest after a game at home in which they allowed less than 40% from the field and 0-7 OU (-14.7 ppg) THIS season at home when JJ Redick took fewer than 10 shots in each of their last two games.
MTi’s FORECAST: ORLANDO 98 Sacramento 83
Larry Ness
Las Vegas Insider: New Mexico -2
A last-second desperation 3-point shot banked-in for Utah, as the Utes successfully rallied from 13 points down in the second half to defeat New Mexico by a 62-60 score on Saturday. Said Lobos' coach Steve Alford about how his team is moving forward after losing their fourth game out of the five decisions this season that have been settled by three points or less; "This was a really tough loss; it's kind of been a year of that ... We've had good fortune the last two years of winning close games, and we just can't win the close ones this year." The thing about close games is that winning or losing them tends to balance out over the long run. So New Mexico may be "due" to see the ball bounce in their favor in one of these tight contests. Then again, there have not been many close games in The Pit this season where the Lobos are 12-2 with an average winning margin of plus-16.2 PPG (including a nine-point win over BYU which is currently 7th in the AP poll). At 17-10 overall and 5-7 in the Mountain West Conference, New Mexico needs quality wins to improve its postseason resume (or at least build confidence for the MWC tournament). New Mexico experienced its worst shooting performance this year in the Utah game by hitting only 35.8% of its shots. However, Alford has to be encouraged that his club converted 47.8% of its shots in the team's 63-62 loss at UNLV last month. The problem for the Lobos in that game was that the Runnin' Rebels shot 46.8% from the field which included converting a decisive 6-of-13 (46.2%) from the three-point line. Lon Kruger's team is extremely unlikely to shoot like that again in The Pit where New Mexico limits opponents to 38.5% shooting (30.9% from the three-point line) and to just 60.6 PPG. As it is, UNLV shoots only 30.5% from three-point land on the season, so it is safe to say that its performance in the first encounter with the Lobos was an aberration. The Runnin' Rebels shoot below 45% away from the Thomas & Mack Center as well. Kruger's team won its sixth game over their last eight contests by winning at Colorado State by a 68-61 score.However, UNLV's recent shooting woes continued in that one as the Rebels shot only 37.5% from the floor which is the fifth time over their last six games that they have shot under 38%. That win secured the program's fifth straight 20-win season, at 20-7 overall and 8-5 in conference play and while Kruger's club is not an NCAA 'lock,' ESPN's latest Bracketology projection places them as an 8th-seed. However, let me remind everyone that UNLV has been swept by BYU and San Diego State in conference play and the Runnin' Rebels have failed to cover in FIVE of their last six games against teams with a winning record. This is a vulnerable basketball team and history reveals that New Mexico is 8-3 (73%) ATS in its last 11 games vs UNLV. With the help of its very intimidating home court environment in The Pit, I expect New Mexico to snap the team's three-game losing streak and pull away in this important game for them.
Lenny Del Genio
Oklahoma City +7.5
Way too many points for a good Thunder team to be getting here, even at San Antonio. Last year, we consistently were all over OKC as an underdog as they were a huge money maker in that role, but this year with the higher profile of the NBA's leading scorer Kevin Durant and company, opportunities have been few and far between. This will be just the fourth time all season that they have been +6.5 or higher and previously they've gone 2-1 ATS. In fact, they started the year by winning all five games they were an underdog in outright! That includes wins at Utah and Boston. The lone exception was a New Year's Day showdown here in San Antonio, where the Thunder clearly must have been out partying too much the previous night and got blown out 101-74 for their worst loss of the season. The good news is that Oklahoma City has been an excellent revenge team this season, going 16-7 ATS, but even better is the team's 12-1 ATS mark on the road the L2 seasons when seeking revenge for a loss by 10 or more. The Thunder did not skip a beat coming out of the Break last night with a convincing 111-88 win over the Clippers at home. Durant scored 21 and Russell Westbrook scored 13 and the good news is that neither played in the 4th quarter. This is San Antonio's first home game back after a 6-3 road trip that ended last week with a loss at Chicago. We don't like teams playing their first home game following a road trip of four or more games. Take Oklahoma City.
Rocketman
3* Los Angeles -125
Kings are 5-1 in their last 6 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Kings are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. Western Conference. Kings are 5-2 in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Ducks are 2-5 in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Kings are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
The Duke's Sports
Michigan (+4) for 2.5 Units
Wisconsin/Michigan 6:30: Michigan is in desperate need of a signature win for their NCAA post-season resume and we're going to look for it here. They're catching the Badgers off a sluggish win at home vs Penn State. Wisconsin has struggled in their last 3 road games -- failing to cover. We realize Wisconsin has beaten Michigan 9 straight times but the Wolves should be ready for redemption tonight. The youthful but now disciplined Wolves are making good decisions (just 10.4 turnovers per game) and playing well at Crisler Arena where they're 13-4 SU. They have a dangerous scorer in Hardaway Jr. with a fine supporting cast. Michigan plays the dog role well (22-8 ATS), including 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as a home dog. Michigan the call.
ATS Lock Club
6 Units UTEP -2.5
5 Units Maryland -6.5
5 Units Wichita St -10.5
4 Units DePaul +13.5
PPP
5% Depaul
5% Drexel
4% Pacers
Mike Lineback
Knicks Under
Maddux Sports
10 Units Milwaukee
10 Units Memphis
10 Units Portland
10 Units Creighton
10 Units Nebraska