David Malinsky
4* PITTSBURGH over WEST VIRGINIA
With an early market surge running West Virginia into double figures for this one it should come as absolutely no surprise that we are in play – in cashing both tickets behind Pittsburgh as road underdogs in January, and two of three against the Mountaineers as home favorites at the same time (the only loss being a bitter half-point ATS failure with Ohio State, which led by 15 on this court before finally falling by six), there are market biases that we can exploit. This is more of the same.
We have used the “Tough Out” moniker for Jamie Dixon and his Panthers so many times through the years that a long explanation would be redundant, but the short synopsis is that you have an outstanding tactician on the sidelines who has consistently recruited hard-nosed players, the kind needed to have success on the difficult Big East trail. That has led to a sparkling 20-9 ATS run as a conference road underdog since he took over the program, and note that in those seven seasons the Panthers are 6-4 straight-up when facing a Top 10 team on the road. This, from starting C Gary McGhee, sums up their attitude well heading into Morgantown - "We enjoy the experience. It's a hostile environment. It's pretty difficult to play there. The fans get loud. We play harder when the fans come at you. It gets you pumped up and your adrenaline going. It's something good for us." And with Jermaine Dixon returning after missing Sunday’s loss at South Florida (the Panthers are 7-1-1 ATS with him on the court since mid-December), the pieces are in place to make a serious challenge.
The West Virginia issues continue to be there – without a true PG or a true C this is a team loaded with talent that will be less than the seeming sum of its parts because of the awkward fit. They are particularly vulnerable against smaller and quicker teams, which is tonight’s matchup, and only their resiliency enabled them to overcome second-half deficits to escape with those close wins here vs. Ohio State, Louisville and Marquette, which came by a combined nine points. With just seven bench points in the last two games they are not going to wear this class of opponent down (Deniz Kilicli will make his debut tonight, but is not ready to be much of a factor yet), and 68.7 percent free throw shooting does not grow margins late.
Ben Burns
10* Personal Favorite - Philadelphia 76ers -1.5
9* Top Northwest Div. Total - Jazz/Trail Blazers Under 198
9* Blue Chip - Philadelphia/Chicago Over 193
10* Top MWC Total - Wyoming/UNLV Over 149.5
7* Buffalo Sabres -140
6* Calgary Flames -165
Brandon Lang
15 Dime - Colorado Buffaloes
Free - Pittsburgh Panthers
WAYNE ROOT
Perfect Play - South Florida +12.5
Billionaire - Iowa +4.5
Millionaire - West Vir -10.5
Vegas Legend - N. Iowa -6
ATS LOCK CLUB
5 Units Vandy -5
5 Units Virginia -5
4 Units Pitt +10
4 Units Illinois -4
INSIDER SPORTS REPORT
4* Colorado State +9.5
3*Richmond -5
3*Ok City -2
WUNDERDOG
3 Units Chicago Under
3 Units Anaheim Under
4 Units Edmonton +1.5
ALATEX
GOY - Rice -3
Rice Under 127
Mizzou Over 145
JEFF BENTON
20 DIME: UAB
UAB has been on the receiving end of its fair share of ass-kickings by Memphis, but now it’s time for the Blazers to exact some revenge. Because the fact is, UAB has a better basketball team this year, and the numbers bear that out. The Blazers are 18-3 on the season, including a 6-1 start to the Conference USA season. True, the one league loss came Saturday against UTEP (74-65 home setback as a four-point underdog), but as you can see by the pointspread in that game, UTEP is a quality team, too.
UAB has won seven of nine road/neutral-site games, too, including Conference USA wins at Marshall, SMU and Tulane, plus a victory at Arkansas. In fact, the Blazers are 3-1 against teams from power conferences, beating Arkansas, Cincinnati and Georgia, while losing at Virginia. They also own a quality 10-point win over Butler (which has been ranked pretty much all season).
As for Memphis, it is coming off a 10-point loss at SMU as a 7½-point road favorite. The Tigers, who entered this season on a 64-game Conference USA winning streak, have split their last four games (like UAB, the Tigers lost at home to UTEP). For the season, Memphis is 15-6, but the key is it doesn’t have a marquee win to speak of. Three of the Tigers’ six losses came against Kansas, Tennessee and Syracuse, the only ranked teams they’ve faced this season. Their best win to date? Uh, a 15-point home win over Houston, which has an 11-9 record. Pretty telling.
Since starting the season with consecutive spread-covers, Memphis is 3-11 ATS, including 2-9 ATS in their last 11 as a favorite and 0-4 ATS when laying less than seven points.
Yes, UAB has lost seven in a row to Memphis, going 1-6 ATS. But that’s when the Tigers were a national powerhouse under coach John Calipari. This year, Memphis is clearly in transition under first-year coach Josh Pastner, and the roster simply isn’t as loaded as it used to be. In particular, the Tigers don’t have the height and length they used to have, which explains why they’ve been out-rebounded in seven of their last 10 games and – despite facing a slew of cupcakes in the non-conference season – they’ve been out-rebounded for the season (Memphis averages 30.2 boards per game; its opponents average 30.8). By comparison, UAB out-boards its opponents by an average of 6 per game (34-28), and the Blazers have finished with the rebounding edge in 11 of their last 13 contests.
I fully expect rebounding to be the big difference in this one, and when you throw in the fact that UAB is the superior free-throw shooting team, this becomes a no-brainer. Even though I doubt we’ll need them, take the points with the visiting Blazers.
Anthony Redd
10-Dime - Evansville
BEATYOURBOOKIE
100* Play Portland (+7.5) over Utah
100* Play Colorado (+13.5) over Kansas
Matt Fargo
10* OK City Thunder -2
Kevin Rogers
Warriors at Mavs
Pick: Warriors +12
The Warriors continue their swing through Texas tonight, as Golden State battles Dallas. The Mavs continue to struggle covering numbers as home favorites, going 0-16 ATS the last 16 as 'chalk' at American Airlines Center. Dallas isn't play well recently, dropping three straight games. How bad has it been for the Mavs at home? Since an 18-point victory over the Rockets on November 10th, the Mavs' biggest home margin of victory has been seven points in the last 18 games in their backyard. Golden State did win at Dallas, 111-103 in late November, as the Warriors played with six players. Until the Mavs can prove they can beat teams convincingly at home, I'll fade them and take the Warriors tonight.
Dominic Fazzani
20 Dime - UNLV
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Carolina/Calgary Under 5.5
For a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on the "under" in this situation:
Carolina is making its first visit to Calgary since a 3-0 loss Dec. 5, 2006. That marked its second straight shutout at the Pengrowth Saddledome since a 4-3 win Dec. 12, 2002.
The Hurricanes had their season-high four-game win streak snapped Monday with a 4-2 loss at Edmonton. Cam Ward made 23 saves on 27 shots after posting a 1.25 goals-against average in the four-game run; I expect him to return to form tonight.
On the other side of the rink: The Flames are expected to debut two more players in Ales Kotalik and Christopher Higgins on tonight.
After pulling off this recent block-buster trade, Calgary promptly lost 3-0 to Philadelphia on Monday.
The Flames know they need practice time to get used to the new players as well as victories in the tight Western Conference playoff race and I believe it will continue to struggle on the offensive end.
Also, keep in mind that the total has gone "under" the number in 10 of Calgary's last 11 at the Saddledome.
Bottom line: Calgary has also seen the total go "under" the posted number in 7 of 9 non-conference games and in 13 of 21 games this season when playing against a team with a losing record.
All of the above factors point to the UNDER as being the sharp wager in this situation!
8* UNDER