Bryan Leonard
4* Mountain West Conference Game of the Year!
San Diego State at UNLV
The Rebels really struggle against physical athletic squads which was very evident in their two losses to USC and Kansas State. The Aztecs are the type of team that UNLV dreads, and it's shown in their recent meetings. San Diego State won all three match-ups with the Rebels last year including two wins on this court. Steve Fisher recruits a certain type of player to fit into his system and he always has the most athletic squad in the conference. San Diego State has won 7 of the last 10 games in this series and there is no way they should be an underdog of this magnitude tonight.
The Aztecs are off an embarrassing loss at Wyoming where they blew a double digit lead against the Cowboys. With only a home date with TCU on deck you know this is a statement game for the visitor.
UNLV is off an impressive win in The Pit against New Mexico, but they suffer a letdown here. This is just a bad match-up for the Rebels and the Aztecs exploit it.
PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE
MR EAST
NCAAB WEDNESDAY PLAY OF THE DAY
PITT PANTHERS @ UCONN HUSKIES
3 UNITS: PITT PANTHERS +6.5
The Connecticut Huskies can play at a high level, when they are running the floor, their athletes stand out in Dyson, Robinson, and Walker, but when they are forced into a halfcourt game, they really struggle. Last time out they let a 19 point lead slip away at Georgetown, after looking like a #1 team for 20 minutes they looked like an also ran thereafter. They have struggled all season vs teams you'd expect them to blowout, but playing 40 minutes has been an isue for this team. Now they get a tough Pitt team, that is finally healthy and it shows. Jermaine Dixon has played only 7 games, and , and this will be the 5th for Gilbert Brown, and with both on the court the Panthers have won and covered every game. They will at the very least be in this one all the way, and I'm going with Pitt here.
BRANDON LANG
25 DIME - NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
Huge flat spot for the Badgers.
Off a huge home win over undefeated Purdue, Wisconsin now takes to the road as a small favorite at Northwestern.
I like what the Wildcats showed me with the big road win at Michigan, and now back home catching points is good value.
Off a straight up win Northwestern has gone a perfect 7-0 ATS next game out, and they couldn't ask for a better spot in which to get this Wisconsin team tonight.
Some terrible numbers for the Badgers in this spot tonight:
They are just 2-5 ATS last 7 on the road and 3-8-1 ATS last 12 when facing a team with a winning home record, 1-4 ATS last 5 at Northwestern and 1-4 ATS last 5 and 2-5 ATS last 7 versus the Wildcats overall.
With an outstanding 8-2 home mark with the two losses being to Michigan State and Butler, I really feel this is a great spot for the home dog.
25 dime - Northwestern
FREE SELECTION - TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS
Tom Freese
10* GAME OF THE WEEK
Difficult spot here for San Antonio here as they beat the Lakers last night by 20 points. Oklahoma City who is led by the brilliant Kevin Durant who averages just under 29 points a game. Guard Russell Westbrook chips in with 16.3 points and forward Jeff Green puts up 14 points a night. The Spurs have not done well as underdogs of late going 1-7 ATS their last 8 games as road dogs. The rested Thunder will wear down the tired Spurs. NBA GAME OF THE WEEK PLAY ON OKLAHOMA CITY -
BIG AL
Vanderbilt at Alabama
Prediction: Alabama
At 9 pm, our member selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide over Vanderbilt, as we will fade the Commodores, who have won six straight following two losses in early December (against Illinois and Western Kentucky). But each of Vanderbilt's last six games have come at home, in Nashville, and Vandy is a super 9-0 at home this season. However, it is a mediocre 3-3 away from home, and that's been Vandy's downfall over the years. Indeed, since 1990, the Commodores are an awful 15-43 ATS on the road off a home win, provided they are not favored by more than two points in the current game. Alabama comes into tonight's contest off an upset win, 66-49, at LSU as a 2-point underdog. And the Crimson Tide are 67% (26-13 ATS) since 1997 off an upset win. Bama has covered each of the three meetings between these two clubs over the past two seasons, and we'll back the Crimson Tide tonight.
David Malinsky
4* Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5
One of the strongest long-term patterns in the NBA has been the difficulties the Spurs continue to have in back-to-back settings, with the run at 28-45 ATS over the last 4+ seasons (you might see 27-46 from other tracking’s, but we credit them for an underdog cover in a game that they lost in O.T.). The key for our purposes is that the oddsmakers have not adjusted for this, largely because when teams of this caliber are involved there is always going to be public money for them anyway, and that the real reasons for the slide in the role are not fully understood. So in a most favorable price range we get to play again here.
Our take on the back-to-back failures has nothing to do with the advancing age of Tim Duncan and other key cogs, but the fact that one of the prime reasons for their success through the years has been the ability of Gregg Popovich to game plan for an opponent. When Popovich has a full day or more to prepare he may be the very best in the NBA at putting the X’s and O’s together, but when that time is taken away, they suddenly become a much lesser team. And that is what we have here. Off of a major home win on Tuesday against the Lakers there is precious little turnaround time for this challenge, and note that despite the big final margin the game was not put away until the latter stages, with Duncan having to toil 39:48. That takes a toll on him for this one, and with Tony Parker dealing with plantar fasciitis, which is going to make back-to-back nights awkward for him as the season progresses, this is a much more vulnerable team than the markets are projecting.
It is more than just the back-to-back nights that is being missed in this line, but the fact that San Antonio has played the softest schedule in the league to this point. The Spurs have had one road game against a winning team in the last five weeks, a 12-point loss at Phoenix, and are just 1-5 SU on the road against winning teams this season. Now a rested and ready Oklahoma City team that is only playing for the third time in seven days, having only faced the weak Pacers and Knicks in that span, can take full advantage, and with a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS run in the last four meetings in the series the confidence is there to get the job done.
RAS
Nevada -3
WAYNE ROOT
Billionaire - Virginia Tech -3½
Vegas Legend - Utah State +3½
TIM TRUSHEL
20* Okla City
Alabama
Texas Tech
RAS
Nevada -3
Texas Tech
UTEP
Fantasy Sports Gametime
1000* Play Clemson (-3.5) over North Carolina (ACC GOY)
Clemson has won 7 of the last 8 games and they have also won 8 of the last 9 games coming off a win by 10 points or more. Clemson has won 3 consecutive home games when the total posted is between 150 and 154.5 points and they are only allowing an average of 59 points a game on defense at home this season.
50* Play Miami (+3) over Virginia Tech
Miami is 15-1 this season and they have also covered the spread in 5 consecutive games coming off a home game. Miami has covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games coming off a win by 6 points or less and they are only allowing an average of 58 points a game on defense this season.
50* Play Atlanta (-11) over Washington
Atlanta has won and covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 games and they have also covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 games coming off a game as an underdog. Atlanta has won 8 of the last 10 home games when the total posted is between 205 and 209.5 points and they are averaging over 109 points a game on offense at home this season.
Wunderdog
Saint Louis Billikens @ Duquesne Dukes
5 Units: Saint Louis Billikens +7.5
Rick Majerus continues to employ the slowdown tactics designed to keep his team in the game as he rebuilds the talent at St. Louis. That means that this is a hard team to stretch out the lead against. They have faced some very good teams, but show the largest deficit in any loss at just 12 points. Last year they had success vs. this Duquesne team beating them at home then falling by just 2 on the road. Damien Saunders has been a beast for the Dukes averaging 14.4 points per game and 12.8 rebounds per game, but he could get bottled up in the zone employed by Majerus here. With none of the top three scorers producing better than 24% from deep, that zone could have him surrounded and tough for the Dukes to find consistent offense. I'll go with St. Louis in this one.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Creighton -4
For a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on Creighton in this situation:
Drake defeated Southern Illinois 70-65 on Saturday night; Kevin Dillard scored 19 points and Carlton Fay and Tony Freeman had 13 apiece for the Salukis (9-5, 2-3), who lost their third in a row; expect another "letdown" this evening.
Keep in mind that Southern Illinois is a sub-par 2-5 ATS its last seven overall and just 2-5 ATS its last seven on the road.
On the other side of the court: The Bluejays are more likely to finish in the bottom half of the MVC than they are to defend their co-championship. The Jan. 9 loss at Wichita State provided more evidence. The Shockers jumped out to a 20-8 lead and Creighton never got closer than 11 points; that being said, they have an excellent opportunity to improve their play on both sides of the ball tonight against a reeling Salukis squad.
Not only is Creighton 4-1 SU its last five at home, its also 4-1 SU its last five vs. Southern Illinois.
Bottom line: The Bluejays have the matchup advantage in this one; look for CREIGHTON to improve to 4-3 ATS when playing the roll of favorite and for Southern Illinois to move to 0-3 ATS this year when playing the roll of underdog!
7* CREIGHTON
Bob Balfe
SA Spurs +1.5
Tony George
Pittsburgh +6
DEFENSE. U Conn has lost to common opponents while Pitt has won, even on the road. U Conn has allowed 70 ppg their last 5 games, while Pitt has allowed 58 ppg. I like the depth of Pit here, in what should be a very tight game and Pitt has won and covered 4 out of the last 5 in this heated series. Pitt 10-4-1 ATS their last 15 in conference action. Too many points, 3 pointer one way or the other. Play 1 Unit on Pitt