Jeff Benton
15 Dime Colorado
Pretty ironic that Colorado didn’t get a bid to the Big Dance mostly because of its crappy non-conference schedule, and yet who’s the Buffaloes’ first-round NIT opponent? Texas Southern out of the Southwestern Athletic Association (one of the worst conferences in all of Division I basketball). Anyway, I’m laying the big chalk with Colorado here because I believe the Buffs – having had three full days to deal with the disappointment of not getting selected to the big tournament – will be properly motivated to go out and make a statement to their naysayers. And if they have indeed converted their depression into determination, then the Buffs can name the score against an outmanned team.
Consider: Colorado is 15-2 on its home floor this year, going 9-2 ATS in lined games. This includes victories over Big 12 rivals/Big Dance entrants Texas, Kansas State (a team Colorado defeated three times) and Missouri. The only teams to get the Buffs in Boulder: Kansas won by four as a 7½-point favorite early in the Big 12 campaign, and Texas A&M won by three in overtime as a 3½-point underdog. Colorado averages nearly 84 points per game at home while shooting 49.6 percent overall, 44.7 percent from downtown and 80.2 percent from the free-throw line. Meanwhile, Texas Southern has played 21 of its 31 games away from home, and here’s what the Tigers have done in those 21 games: 62.6 ppg, 42.4 percent overall, 30.2 percent from three-point land and 67 percent from the free-throw line.
Texas Southern played nearly half a Big 12 schedule in the non-conference season, facing Oklahoma, Kansas State, Iowa State and Baylor (all on the road). It lost all four games by an average of 18.3 ppg, including an 82-52 loss at Oklahoma, an 84-60 loss at Kansas State and a 65-54 loss at Iowa State (which finished dead-last in the Big 12 this year). Additionally, the Tigers gave up 75 points in a 23-point loss at Oregon, 70 points in a six-point home loss to North Texas, and 79 points in a 12-point loss at Wichita State. My point: I don’t see how Texas Southern is going to slow down explosive Colorado, which has topped 80 points 17 times this year.
The Buffs have covered in six of their last seven games following a defeat (which is huge, because it shows the coaches know how to get the players to respond from disappointment), and prior to Big 12 play they cashed in four of their final five non-conference games. Colorado is also 3-0 ATS this year when laying more than seven points, and they own seven victories this year of 22 points or more.
Make it eight such blowout wins as the Buffs come out strong from the get-go and roll to a 35-point win.
Jim Feist
Road Warrior - Dallas