Jeff Benton
30 Dime New Mexico
There’s no question this has been a disappointing season for New Mexico, which is just 18-11 overall and 6-8 in the Mountain West Conference, just one year removed from a 30-win season and a Mountain West regular-season championship that earned the school a No. 3 seed in the Big Dance.
However, New Mexico’s fifth-place standing in the Mountain West is very deceiving if you review the Lobos’ schedule. To wit, here’s a look at the team’s eight conference defeats: there’s a pair of 10-point losses to San Diego State (at home) and Utah (on the road), plus a one-point loss at Wyoming, a one-point loss at UNLV, a six-point loss at Colorado State, a six-point loss at San Diego State, a two-point, buzzer-beating home loss to Utah and a three-point overtime home loss to UNLV.
That’s right: The Lobos haven’t lost a Mountain West game by more than 10 points all year, and if you take away the two 10-point losses to San Diego State and Utah, New Mexico’s other six league losses were by a total of 19 points. Throw in a three-point overtime loss at Dayton and a six-point loss at Northern Iowa back in non-conference play, and 10 of New Mexico’s 11 losses this season have been by 10 points or less (the only team to blow out the Lobos was Cal, which rolled 89-64 at home back on Nov. 20, the third game of the season).
And yet here are the Lobos catching 11 to 12 points tonight against BYU, a team that A) has just two losses this season, but one of them was to New Mexico (86-77 in Albuquerque); B) is in a major flat spot, coming off Saturday’s 80-67 win at San Diego State (the last time they beat San Diego State – also by 13 points – they followed it up with the nine-point loss at New Mexico) and C) is 24 hours removed from the crushing news that starting forward Brandon Davies (11.1 points, team-high 6.2 rebounds per game) has been suspended for the rest of the season for violating the school’s Honor Code.
Now, I know what you’re thinking: “Hey Jeff, two words for you: Jimmer Fredette.” True, Fredette is a freaking stud. However, if you watched BYU’s sensational win over San Diego State on Saturday, you know the Cougars are much more than just Jimmer. And the loss of Davies is a major, major blow. Besides, as great as Jimmer is, BYU has lost three straight and four of five to New Mexico (both SU and ATS).
So to recap:
BYU is coming off its biggest win of the season (and the last time that was the case, the Cougars lost by nine points at New Mexico; also, the Cougars are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following a spread-cover).
BYU has lost three in a row and four of five to New Mexico.
BYU just lost its third-leading scorer and leading rebounder to a season-ending suspension.
New Mexico has played 26 games without losing by more than 10 points.
And New Mexico is, at minimum, an 11-point underdog in this game (and the Lobos are 4-0 ATS in their last four when catching between 7 and 12½ points).
One final point: The Lobos are tied with Utah for fifth place in the Mountain West standings, and because Utah beat New Mexico twice, the Lobos have to win their final two games and hope Utah loses once to get the No. 5 seed in the upcoming conference tournament and avoid UNLV (which hosts the tournament on its home floor) in the first round. In other words, this is a HUGE game for New Mexico.
Will the Lobos win it? I’m not willing to make that prediction (after all, BYU is 15-0 at home). But New Mexico has proven to be a very tough matchup for the Cougars, and I don’t see why that won’t be the case today (especially since BYU will be without one of its starters). Grab the points and watch the Lobos stay within this inflated pointspread wire to wire!
PPP
5% NY Knicks
5% Marquette
Wayne Root
No Limit - W Virginia
Pinacle GOM - Florida St +2
RAS
Cal Riverside +7.5
AL DeMarco
College Teaser f the Year - Dayton & Richmond
La Salle
Will Cover
5* Colorado
4* Miami OH
3* Air Force
2 Minute Warning
10 Dime La Salle
Derek Mancini
20 Dime Florida St
Anthony Redd
30 Dime St Louis
Chuck O'Brien
20 Dime Marquette
10 Dime Pistons
Craig Davis
50 Dime Florida St
50 Dime New Mexico
Jay McNeil
100 Dime Eastern Kentucky
Joel Tyson
20 Dime UConn
10 Dime North Carolina
Matt Rivers
200,000* Memphis
Trace Adams
1000* Marquette
500* Oklahoma City
Helmut
La Salle Over 152.5
Massachusetts Under 129.5
Texas El Paso Over 134
Tennessee State Under 138
Eastern Kentucky Under 127
American Umder 131.5
Sam Paolini
20* Minnesota -125
Donnie Black
20* Memphis Tigers +1
Seabass
100* Florida St
100* Bobcats
100* TWolves
200* Steam W Virginia
Dr Bob
2* Golden St
2* Northwestern
NBA Opinion
Portland (-3) over SACRAMENTO
The Blazers should be better with former Bobcats’ star Gerald Wallace, but so far they’ve lost 2 straight as solid favorites with their new lineup. Portland applies to a very good 60-16-2 ATS situation tonight and the Blazers are 25-11-2 ATS as a road favorite the last few years (9-0-1 ATS on the second of back-to-back nights). However, my ratings only favor Portland by 2 points and the line is probably high based on how well the Blazers are expected to play with Wallace – which is something they haven’t shown yet. I’ll just lean with the Blazers at -3 or less and I’d play Portland in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 or better.
College Opinions
George Washington (+7) over RHODE ISLAND
George Washington has always been better in conference play (99-67-5 ATS) than they’ve been in non-conference play (30-46-2 ATS) under coach Karl Hobbs, including a huge difference this season (2-9 ATS non-conference, 11-3 ATS conference). Rhode Island, meanwhile, is just 37-57-1 ATS after a game in which they won and covered under coach Jim Baron, including 4-20-1 ATS recently. My current ratings favor Rhode Island by 7 points, so the line is fair, and I’ll lean with George Washington plus the points based on the team trends.
SE Missouri State (+7) over Eastern Kentucky
Eastern Kentucky won both regular season meetings against SE Missouri State by double-digit margins, but my ratings only favor Eastern Kentucky by 6 points and SEMO applies to a solid 45-17 ATS conference tournament revenge situation. I’ll lean with SE Missouri State plus the points.
EZWinners
Colorado
Rocky Sheridan
Blazers
Richmond
Northern Ill
Northwestern
Steve Budin
Richmond