Rated Picks
3 Units St Louis -4
3 Units Orlando Magic +1
2 Units Boston Celtics -4.5
3 Units Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (+240)
Andrew Bucciarelli
3* Rangers (-145) over Islanders
Billy Coleman
5* Orl +1 (GOY)
3* NO +6
4* Pac/App St Over 132
3* Pac +3
3* VaTech/RI Under 143
James Patrick Sports
5* Indiana Pacers
Sportsbetsnow
1 Unit Utah -3
John Fina
Illinois
Marc Lawrence
4 Units Indiana
SEAN HIGGS
20* Butler
Stephen Nover
50 Dime - Missouri St.
20 Dime - LA Lakers
David Malinsky
4* INDIANA -8 over WASHINGTON
The Indiana Pacers have quietly played some of the best basketball in the NBA over the past two weeks. In going 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS they have beaten the pointspread by 69 points, and it is hard to fault either of the defeats – losses but covers at Milwaukee and Cleveland. Looking to slide into a better lottery pick? Not this bunch, as the following from Jim O’Brien attests - ”We get paid to win. I’ll play the guys I think give us the best chance of winning. Flat out and simple. There won’t be any deviating from that.” And they are getting a particularly major surge from Danny Granger right now, with 93 points in three games since missing that close loss at Cleveland, and only once in his last nine appearances has he been held to less than 24 points.
We deal with that side of the equation first because it leads to one of our favorite settings in professional sports – the night in which a team is going to come to play against a truly weak sister, instead of taking them lightly. And Washington is the weakest of the weak right now. All things considered, it is difficult to imagine a worse setting for any team this season. First we start with the obvious personnel shortcomings, and the draining of whatever confidence the Wizards once had, with the current slide now at 12 straight defeats. But now add a huge degree of fatigue and disorganization. This will be their ninth game in 14 days, all with court changes, and rarely does the NBA throw anything tougher at a team than giving them just one day at home off of a west coast swing, and then making them travel again immediately off of that home game. That is the case here, and it got exacerbated in multiple ways in that 95-86 overtime loss to Charlotte last night – not only does that increase the physical fatigue issues, but now the likelihood of Andray Blatche being suspended at least for tonight only makes things worse. He was benched early last night for not getting back on defense and never did return to the game, which led to a long diatribe from Flip Saunders afterwards. Here is the best of it -
"Fifteen years, I've never seen anything like it, never ... You can be upset with me, but don't leave your teammates hanging out to dry like that. You don't do that. You don't do that. That's one of the greatest things about this sport. You look to the right, and you look to the left. It's being in the trenches with those players. And what happens is as players, you know what you have. Right now, those teammates, he's lost their credibility. What's going to happen when things go bad? You can't do those things … I am extremely disappointed. I am the most disappointed I've ever been in 15 years with a player. Most disappointed."
With Mike Miller also bothered by an ankle injury the options for Saunders are extremely limited right now, and the team is in a devastated psychological state. That leaves the door wide open for the Pacer momentum to continue in style here.
Rocketman
3* Charlotte -9
JAY MCNEIL
20* Milwaukee Bucks
ANTHONY REDD
25* Boston U +12
25* Dayton +3
25* Princeton +4.5
CHUCK O'BRIEN
25* New Orleans +5.5
10* Denver +4.5
KARL GARRETT
20* Illinois -3
10* Orlando +1
BOBBY MAXWELL
300* Utah Jazz -3.5
100* LA Lakers +1
MICHAEL CANNON
20* Orlando +1
Jimmy Boyd
3* Wednesday NCAAB Top Side on Princeton +4.5
Princeton has what it takes to win this game straight up so I will take the points with the Tigers tonight. Both teams play halfcourt hoops so we can expect this to be a close game, and I'll take the points in this situation every time. Plus, based on the low total set for this game, odds makers feel points will be at a premium. So once again, I like our side where we are catching a couple field goals. Princeton is 18-6 ATS in all lined games this season so it is one of the very best covering teams in the country. It is also a perfect 8-0 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%), after 15 or more games, over the last 3 seasons. The Tigers are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 road games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. We'll take the points.
3* Wednesday Night NBA SMASH on Rockets +8
The Thunder are struggling a little bit, having lost 3 of their last 4, and I expect them to get a test from a very resilient Houston Rockets squad tonight. The Rockets are coming off a loss in Chicago, but they have proven to be a good bounce back team from a point spread perspective. In fact, the Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. The Thunder are much improved this season, but they haven't proven they can be trusted laying this many points. In fact, they are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. They also haven't proven they can beat the Rockets. Houston has won 13 in a row against the OKC franchise. It is also worth noting that Houston is 15-5 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, actually exploding to win in these spots by 10.6 points on average. Take the points.
3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Magic/Hawks UNDER 196
We've seen the last 4 meetings between these two teams finish Under the number with the average combined score in these games totaling just 180.8 points. This matchup will feel like a playoff game as the defensive intensity should increase. The fact that Orlando crushed the Hawks by 18 the last time these two teams met will have Atlanta out for blood tonight. Revenge plays in our favor here as Atlanta is 19-6 Under when revenging a road loss of 10 points or more versus an opponent over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing 184.8 total points scored in these spots on average. Plus, Atlanta is 23-12 Under vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing an average of 182.3 points scored in these games. Yes, Orlando has been scoring the rock lately, but it is 16-4 Under after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing an average of 191.3 points scored in these spots. We'll take the Under tonight.
4* Major NIT Total of the Year (ESPN 2) on Rhode Island/VA Tech UNDER 143
Odds makers have set the bar too high this evening. The Under is 16-5-1 in the Rams' last 22 road games. They just don't score the basketball as well on the road. Plus, Rhode Island is up against a VA Tech squad only allowing 60.1 points in home games this season. When we get a little bit more specific, we find that the Under is 13-3-1 in the Rams' last 17 games as an underdog and 5-0-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. The Under is also 7-3 in the Hokies' last 10 home games and 7-1 in their last 8 vs. the Atlantic 10. Here's the clincher: Rhode Island is 11-0 Under versus good defensive teams with a shooting percentage defense of 42% or better, after 15+ games, this season, and we are only seeing an average total of 128.4 points scored in these spots. Bet the Under.
Brandon Lang
5 Units Indiana -9
Craig Davis
50 Dime – NUGGETS
DENVER NUGGETS - I should have known better than to release the Denver Nuggets as my free play yesterday, knowing it was a huge look-ahead spot against Boston the night after. My mistake. The good news is I hit my one-and-only premium play on North Carolina yesterday... and another 30 dimes in our pocket. So, my mistake in releasing Denver as a free play last night will be money in our pockets tonight as the Nuggets not only cover the number, they challenge for the outright win.,$$$ Denver's loss combined with Dallas' win over the Clippers last night put those two in a deadlock for the #2 seed in the Western Conference Playoffs. You may not think it's that big of a deal, but getting the 2-seed gives that team one more home game in a seven-game series... and chances are these two will be meeting up in the second round (unless Utah makes a run).
Do not, for one second, put any stock into Denver's performance vs. the Knicks last night. They clearly weren't prepared and came in thinking they'd steamroll New York on their way to Boston. Didn't happen. What this loss did was give the Nuggets just their fourth two-game losing streak of the season... a rarity for sure. But what's even more rare for them is a three-game losing streak... which has only happened to them one other time this year. And keep in mind, that two-game losing streak turned into a three-game losing streak because they didn't have Carmelo Anthony for that third game. After dropping tough matchups with Dallas and Portland, Denver went to Sacramento without their star and still nearly won.
Tonight, Carmelo, Billups, JR Smith, Nene... they're all healthy and ready to get back on track after disappointing losses to Milwaukee and New York. The last time these two hooked up in Denver, the Nuggets won by 9 despite shooting just 62% from the free throw line, getting out-rebounded, and shooting a lesser percentage from the field. If Denver had hit anywhere close to their season average from the free throw line (78%), this game would have been a double-digit win. Denver is in the top 5 in free throw shooting in the NBA and this game could very well come down to a battle at the line in the end. The one area the Nuggets did excel in the last meeting was the three-point shooting, and that could also play a big factor tonight. Denver shoots a good 2% better from downtown than Boston, and Boston allows opponents to shoot 4% better than Denver does... that's a big difference.
Look, I understand that Denver isn't the best road team in the NBA, but Boston isn't really a great home team... especially when it comes to covering the number. The Celtics are 18-38-1 ATS in their last 57 home games, they're 4-11-1 in their last 16 vs. teams from the Western Conference, and 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. teams with a winning percentage greater than .600. Denver, meanwhile, is 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 in the role of underdog, 19-7 ATS in their last 26 vs. teams from the Atlantic Division, and 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. teams with winning percentages greater than .600. I'm not saying Boston doesn't want to win this game, but I think Denver has more to play for and I remember the last time they had their backs against the wall, they went to Los Angeles and blasted the Lakers with a three-point barrage. I'm not saying they necessarily win tonight, but I just can't see them losing by more than 5. Top play of the day on the Denver Nuggets.