Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, March 9,2011

Jeff Benton

40 Dime St. John’s
15 Dime East Carolina

St. John’s

I know Rutgers had a great showing yesterday in rallying for a six-point overtime upset win over Seton Hall. And I know the Scarlet Knights have been paying dividends at the window lately (9-4-1 ATS last 13 games, including 8-3 ATS as an underdog). And I know that one of those spread-covers came at the Garden against St. John’s back on Feb. 2 (the Johnnies escaped with a 58-56 win but came up way short as an eight-point home favorite).

That said, this Rutgers is still being forced to play on back-to-back days for the first time all season, and it does so on St. John’s home court. More importantly, the Red Storm have been virtually unstoppable lately. With Saturday’s 16-point win over South Florida as a 12-point home favorite, St. John’s has won nine of its last 11 overall and eight of its last nine conference games.

Just as impressively, the Red Storm are on an 8-3 ATS tear, going 5-1 ATS at home with the only non-cover coming against Rutgers. Speaking of that first meeting between these teams, don’t forget that it was played just three days after St. John’s destroyed Duke at the Garden (a 93-78 win as an eight-point underdog). So it was a classic letdown spot for the Red Storm.

Today that letdown element doesn’t exist. In fact, I’m quite sure coach Steve Lavin will use last month’s close call against Rutgers to motivate his players, reminding them they can be beat today if they aren’t fully focused on the task at hand.

One more thing working in the Red Storm’s favor in this contest: the start time. Not only did Rutgers have to work overtime to beat Seton Hall yesterday, but this one will tip less than 24 hours after yesterday’s game ended.

Lay the chalk with confidence as St. John’s (4-1 ATS last five neutral-site games) will try to establish an up-tempo pace from the get-go and eventually wear down the Scarlet Knights in the final 10 minutes of the game.

East Carolina

Don’t exactly understand what the oddsmakers were thinking when they lined this East Carolina-Central Florida game. All East Carolina has done is upset the Golden Knights three straight times, including two comfortable victories this year – 74-62 as a 13-point road underdog and 68-61 as a two-point home underdog. In fact, the Pirates have covered in five of the last six meetings, all from the underdog spot.

If you don’t care about recent history, then what about recent form? East Carolina ended the season with three wins and covers in its last four games, including two outright upsets over UTEP (83-76 at home) and Rice (71-68 on the road), plus a strong 11-point home victory over Memphis as a scant one-point chalk.

True, UCF did snap out of an eight-game losing skid by ending the regular season with five wins in its last seven games. However, one of those losses came on Saturday at Marshall, and it wasn’t pretty (83-69). More importantly, the Golden Knights never came close to covering as a four-point road underdog in that one, drophing to – get this – 3-13-1 ATS over the final 17 regular-season games (the final 16 of which were against Conference USA foes). And that 3-13-1 ATS slide includes just one spread-cover in 12 games as a favorite … and that was a 65-62 win at Tulane as a three-point chalk.

In fact, after opening C-USA play with a 65-58 win over Marshall (as an 11-point favorite), Central Florida won just five other league games and did so by the narrowest of margins: 1, 3, 6, 1 and 3 points.

Bottom line, guys: I’m not suggesting East Carolina is about to put on Cinderella’s slipper and make a run at this tournament championship. But the Pirates certainly have enough ability to get by Central Florida (as they’ve proven twice already this year). And for the Golden Knights to be favored, and favored by a decent margin, is more insane than Charlie Sheen.