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Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, March 9,2011

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Bob Valentino

50 Dime Texas Tech

 
Posted : March 9, 2011 12:00 pm
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ATS Lock Club

5 Units C Florida
4 Units S Mississippi
4 Units Marquette

 
Posted : March 9, 2011 12:02 pm
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Wunderdog

5 Units Lightning

5 Units Red Wings

 
Posted : March 9, 2011 12:06 pm
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EZWinners

Colorado
Baylor
Nebraska

 
Posted : March 9, 2011 12:09 pm
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EZWinners

Colorado
Baylor
Nebraska

 
Posted : March 9, 2011 12:09 pm
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King Creole

1* Houston +9.5

Houston has basically has their way against Marshall in Conference USA play... going 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. They'll also be the ones with the Revenge MOTIVATION on Wednesday in the opening round of the CUSA Tourney. Back on February 1st, Houston lost by ONE point (63-62).

First off, a quick peak into the ATS tendencies of the Conference USA Tournament. Teams off a BIG loss are usually a GREAT play.
2-15 ATS: All CONF USA opening round favorites of 12 points playing off a SU double-digit FAVORITE loss (HOUSTON).

A look at the SEEDS (Houston: #11 / Marshall: #6) seals the deal....
5-20 ATS since 2004: All OPENING ROUND Conference Tourney #6 SEED favorites of > 7 points (Marshall) versus a #11 SEED (Houston). These teams are a PERFECT 0-6 ATS in the last 6 years vs any opp off a DD SU loss (like HOUSTON).

 
Posted : March 9, 2011 12:53 pm
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Craig Davis

50 Dime SMU

 
Posted : March 9, 2011 12:55 pm
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Sean Higgs

10* Montana Under
5* St Johns
5* San Jose State
4* Missouri

 
Posted : March 9, 2011 12:56 pm
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Maddux Sports

10 Units West Virginia -2
10 Units Baylor -7
10 Units Houston +9
10 Units Oregon -1

 
Posted : March 9, 2011 1:27 pm
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Teddy Covers

Big Ticket: Oregon St +4.5
Texas Tech +10.5
Rice +2.5
Iowa St +5
76ers -1

 
Posted : March 9, 2011 2:04 pm
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3G Sports

10* Iowa St +5
5* St John's -10
4* Rice +3
4* Arizona St + 1

 
Posted : March 9, 2011 2:18 pm
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DAVID MALINSKY

4* TCU / WYOMING UNDER 141.5

We had to sit back and let the markets do their thing on this one, but now that the value has reached peak it is time to get in play, as two incompetent teams produce a sluggish game flow in a rare setting in which each side genuinely has a chance to win.

Here is the gist: A couple of games ago Fred Langley decided to do what an interim coach should do when a bad team has little to play for – he let them go out and have fun, choosing to run vs. Mountain West powers U.N.L.V., San Diego State, and Brigham Young, in the last three games. Word got out that it was his intention, and we saw a lot of steam to the Over in each of those games. As such the oddsmakers became aware and adjusted, yet the Over bettors kept winning anyway. Now they are at it again here, and after these two teams had their Totals close at 134.5 at T.C.U. and 131.5 at Wyoming during the regular-season, you can see how much of an adjustment has been made.

Here is our key: Langley knew that there was no chance to win those last three games anyway. So why hold the ball just to keep the score down? He let the Cowboys have some fun, even if it meant losing those games by a combined 64 points. But this is different. There is a realistic chance to win against a weak opponent that they have already beaten by 10 a month ago, and that means an entirely different game plan than those recent outings. Now it is time to at least attempt to play some defense and slow the pace, and the latter is what bad teams do when they are in close games – because of the lack of confidence, they slow things down. So how far out of the line is this Total now? With T.C.U. now favored by -2, the markets are basically calling it a 72-70 game. Now note that the Horned Frogs have reached 72 twice in 16 Mountain West games, and in the 10 games since losing leading scorer Ronnie Moss have averaged just 59.7 in regulation.

This will not be pretty to watch, with the crowd perhaps not even reaching four figures, but the current line offers too much value to pass up.

 
Posted : March 9, 2011 4:23 pm
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Kelso

15 Units 76ers

 
Posted : March 9, 2011 5:05 pm
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Sam Paolini

20* NY Rangers +105

 
Posted : March 9, 2011 5:06 pm
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Andy Fanelli

60 Dime Philadelphia 76ers
40 Dime Minnesota
30 Dime Chicago
20 Dime Indiana/Minnesota Over

 
Posted : March 9, 2011 5:11 pm
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