KELSO
50 Units Phoenix Suns +7
DR GURU
12* Philadelphia Phillies -150 (F5 INNINGS)
10* Washington Nationals -145 (F5 INNINGS)
10* Colorado/Houston Over 5 (F5 INNINGS)
Mike Lineback
4* Tigers/Oakland under 7
Lenny Del Genio
20* Cincinnati Reds
THE PREZ
8* Suns / Lakers Over 214.5
Monday Night's Western Conference finals between the Lakers and the Suns flew over the total, and while the oddsmakers have made the adjustment we expected, and wrote about in our Game 1 analysis, the opening total tonight is still a solid investment to the OVER. While Phoenix doesn't have a true center the Spurs struggled to matchup with their smaller frontcourt. Los Angeles, which has two seven-footers on the inside with Bynum and Gasol , will be pounding the rim against the smallish Suns bigs.. for the second straight game.
No one expected a Suns sweep over the Spurs And not one so called expert expected such stellar play from the Phoenix bench. Alvin Gentry's offensive staple, the pick and roll is the Lakers weakness, and the best offense in the NBA takes on arguably the best player in the game, Kobe Bryant, with no one player on the roster than can stop him (evidence was in Game 1 when Kobe put up monster numbers).
Flashback: "The oddsmakers opening total in this game has fallen two points and current sits at an attractive 210.5. If things play out like we expect them to, with both teams scoring more than 110 points apiece in Game 1, you will not see another 212 (opening total), not for the remainder of these conference finals, at least." This is what we wrote in our 10* Game 1 analysis. While the total has grown, the play remains the same -- OVER the total in Game 2.
The Lakers are 50-8 (86%) to the OVER when they allow 105 or more points in a game over the last two seasons with an average final score exceeding 220 points and what the Suns are doing right now with their deep bench and superior execution of a Utah like pick and roll (the Lakers and the Jazz went over the total all four games) warrants a large play, but less than Game 1, to the OVER 215.
The Suns, despite getting horse whipped in Game 1, will likely take a more physical role in tonight's matchup. Amare Stoudemire, who promised physical play against the Lakers' bulky frontcourt before the series, was unimpressed by Lamar Odom, who had 19 points and 19 rebounds off the Lakers' bench in the opener. "He had a lucky game in Game 1," Stoudemire told the AP. "We've just got to make sure we box him (Odom) out," said Stoudemire, who managed just three rebounds while Odom set a career playoff high on the boards. "I think I focused so much on (Pau) Gasol and (Andrew) Bynum to where he sneaked in there and got 19 boards."
Expect the Suns to find easier baskets via their pick-and-roll offense with more transition points, this unless the Lakers shoot 58% from the floor again, which would still offer us advantage to a play on the OVER.
Playing to the OVER on a road team, revenging a road loss of 10 points or more against a division foe when oddsmaker open the total at 200 or more has been an 80% (39-10) proposition over the last 13 NBA campaigns. The trend is 4-1 this season and 20-4 over the last three.
We mentioned in our write-up about Monday's 10* total, and the low 210.5 total, that bettors wouldn't see that low of a opening number for the rest of the series and as expected the oddsmakers opened the Game 2 total three points higher, hence the lower rating for The Prez' Over play tonight. That said little will change from Game 1 to Game 2, with the exception of a correction by both teams. The Suns won't shoot as poorly as they did in the series opener and the Lakers likely won't hit 58 percent from the floor. In the end the results will be the same.. a high scoring fast paced contest.
Bob Balfe
Chicago White Sox -155
The Angels are a bad team on the road, but we are taking the White Sox today because of the pitching prowess of Danks. John Danks is definitely one of the most under-rated pitchers in all of baseball. At home, he should easily pitch his surging team to victory tonight. Take the White Sox.
Marc Lawrence
3 Units Twins
Cincinnati Kid
Phoenix +7
Suns were stunned by the Kobe factor in the 3rd Q of Game 1 and should bring a more balanced attack this evening...Suns 8-1 ATS off a SU 20 point loss in the post-season while Lakers 2-7 ATS home off a 20 > SU home win in the playoffs including 0-3 vs division foes...Western Conf Finals RD's off a DD SU division loss stand 14-4 vs .666 or better foes and 7-1 when facing the same foe off BB SU wins...Round 3 Game 2 division clashes have favored the clubs off a SU loss witnessing them cash 10 of 13 tickets...Clubs playing with 1 days re~st are 10-1 ATS as RD's off a SU loss vs a foe off BB SU wins - in addition clubs in Game 2 vs. division foes playing hosts are 0-7 off BB SUATS wins when owning a .666 > win-loss mark.
Matt Fargo
10* Phoenix Suns +6.5
King Creole
2* Phoenix Suns +7.5
I always start my querying in the Playbook NBA post-season database with an eye on the OVER / UNDERS. After running some systems and simulations, NOTHING shook out as far as tonight's TOTALS PLAY goes. But there is a clear-cut SIDE PLAY... and that's the Underdog.
Game One of this series went to the home team (Lakers)... and it also went 'OVER the Total'. I plugged in these results for the last 3 rounds of the NBA Playoffs... and the UNDERDOG has brought home the bacon in the past 90% of the time.
1-9-1 ATS since 2000: All NBA Playoff GAME TWO (Rds 2, 3, or 4) home favorites of > 3 points playing off a SU and ATS win... and an 'OVER' result (Lakers).
There's something about this '3.2' Game that cries out for players to grab the points. That would be ROUND 3 / GAME 2...... It worked last night for the CELTICS, who got the outright win over the Magic. We'll stay ON IT Wednesday evening.
8-21-1 ATS since 1995: All '3.2' HOME teams (Lakers). If these hosts are favored by 7 > points (Orlando LAST night / Lakers TONIGHT)... the results are 1-7 ATS.
The BIG time 6-game Playoff WINNING streak for Phoenix finally came to an end of Monday night. Our Playbook NBA database tells us that these teams get RIGHT back up off the mat after a loss that broke such a large winning streak.
12-3 ATS since 1995: All NBA Playoff UNDERDOGS (any round / any game) off a SU loss that broke a 5+ game PLAYOFF winning streak (SUNS). Since the 2005 season, these teams have gone a PERFECT 5-0 ATS.
Tonight's OU line is on the HIGH side (215 or more points). Nothing caught our fancy in terms of tonight's Totals Play... but some great ATS results jumped out at us after querying such a high OU line.
0-5 ATS since 2005: All NBA Playoff ROUND THREE (any game) home teams with an OU line of 215 > points (Lakers).
8-23-2 ATS: All NBA Playoff GAME TWO (any round) home teams with an OU line of 210 > points (Lakers). And against fellow DIVISION opponents, these hosts have gone 0-5 ATS since the 1005 season.
LA ripped off 128 points in the Game One win...
3-10 ATS: All NBA Playoff GAME TWO teams who scored 125 > points in their last game (Lakers). In Rounds 2, 3, or 4... these teams have gone 1-5 ATS.
A look at tonight's SEEDS will seal the deal for us....
17-40-3 ATS: All NBA Playoff #1 SEED favorites in any GAME TWO in Rounds 2, 3, or 4 (Lakers). In the LAST two rounds (3 or 4), the results are 8-23-1 ATS. And if these #1 Seed teams are off a SU and ATS win (like the Lakers), the results are a perfect 0-8 ATS.
8-2 ATS: All NBA Playoff #3 SEED teams in any GAME TWO... in Rounds 3 or 4 (SUNS). These teams have gone 6-1 ATS vs any opponent off BB SU and ATS wins (like the Lakers).
Savannah Sports
1* Phoenix +7
1* Atlanta Over 8.5
1* Pittsburgh Over 9
1* Tampa Bay +1.5
AL DeMARCO
10 Dime Philadelphia Phillies
5 Dime LA Lakers/Phoenix Suns Over
ANTHONY REDD
10 Dime TB Rays
10 Dime Phoenix Suns/LA Lakers Over
10 Dime SF Giants
5 Dime Pittsburgh Pirates
5 Dime Baltimore Orioles
5 Dime Chicago WS -1.5
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* Blue Jays/Mariners Over 7.5
STEPHEN NOVER
20 Dime Minnesota Twins
10 Dime Phoenix Suns