JR O'Donnell
3* Red Sox / Rays Over 8.5
The Rays @ 32-14 will get to Boston's John Lackey (4-3, 5.07 ERA) as he is really struggling, bombed by the Phillies last game and having a poor recent record vs the Rays, but he's 0-2 with a 17.28 ERA the last two times he's squared off vs. the Boys from Fla. Let's take a hard look at the Over as Vegas has this baby at 8.5 for a reason. The under will be the popular play here and JR O is going against the grain as 3* totals have cashed nicely. Power play ratings have this May 26th battle at 11.3 runs on the variances we have. That’s a full 2 runs off. Over 8.5 grabs the 3* status.
Dave Cokin
Matchup: Oakland at Baltimore
Time: 7:05 PM EDT (Wed)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) CAHILL, T vs. (L) MATUSZ, B
Play: Baltimore (ML -115)
The Oakland A's had lots of chances to break things open early in their Tuesday game with the Orioles. But they left loads of runners stranded and ended up with the loss, extending the road miseries for this team. The A's are now a woeful 5-14 on the road, and I think they're in trouble tonight. The Orioles clearly have bullpen issues, so they will need a good start tonight from lefty Brian Matusz. The talented young southpaw is off a very bad outing, but I expect him to rebound smartly against an A's lineup that's not real loaded for bear against lefties. On the flip side, Baltimore can bang righties, especially at home, and A's starter Trevor Cahill has struggled in most of his away starts. Given the Oakland problems on the road and the fact the O's have what I believe is an edge on the mound, this number is actually a little on the low side. I'll look for the O's to win their second straight.
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Matchup: Boston at Orlando
Time: 8:30 PM EDT (Wed)
Play: Boston (+4 -110)
It's amazing how quickly people will change their tune when analyzing sports. Most of the same people who said this series was over after Game Three are suddenly talking about how the Magic are right back in the series and that the pressure is now on the Celtics. I think that's absurd. Boston is ahead three games to one. The pressure is on Orlando, because if they lose tonight, their season is finished. I also am not putting a whole lot of stock into the Game Four result. The Celtics played flat, and yet they still got the game to OT and might well have won in regulation has Rasheed Wallace not taken another of his typically stupid technical fouls late in the game. In my opinion, the Celtics still have the physical advantage and unless the Magic have another game where they are unconscious from beyond the arc, it's ending tonight. At the very least, I expect Boston to be in it all the way, so taking the points with the Celtics is the play.
Foxsheets
Super Situations
ST LOUIS at SAN DIEGO
Play Against - Road teams (ST LOUIS) average hitting team (AVG = .255 to .269) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL)
92-58 over the last 5 seasons. ( 61.3% | 40.7 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )
Play Against - Home teams (MINNESOTA) poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL
72-42 since 1997. ( 63.2% | 35.6 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.6 units )
Situational Power Trends
NATS at SF
SAN FRANCISCO is 15-2 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in Home games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: SAN FRANCISCO (4.5) , OPPONENT (1.5)
Super Situations
BOSTON at ORLANDO
Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points revenging a home loss vs opponent, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record
44-17 over the last 5 seasons. ( 72.1% | 25.3 units )
5-3 this year. ( 62.5% | 1.7 units )
Play On - Underdogs vs the money line (BOSTON) after beating the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games
31-30 over the last 5 seasons. ( 50.8% | 30.7 units )
2-6 this year. ( 25.0% | -2.2 units )
Play Against - Road teams vs. the 1rst half line (BOSTON) revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7or more against opponent off an upset win as an underdog
84-43 since 1997. ( 66.1% | 36.7 units )
6-1 this year. ( 85.7% | 4.9 units )
Premium picks from Jimmy Boyd
3* NBA Playoffs SMASH (ESPN) on Magic -4
If the Magic were going to just pack it in, they would have done so in Boston in Game 4. Instead, they showed a lot of heart and extended the series. Now they're back home, where they are 38-9 on the season, with some momentum on their side. I know Boston stole the first two games of this series on the road, but I can't see it winning three in a row in Orlando. The Magic's Game 4 win will give them some much needed confidence. As a result, expect the three-point shots to start falling. The Magic are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Plus, they are a perfect 13-0 ATS after a win by 6 points or less this season, winning in this situation by an average score of 106.5 to 90.5. I'll play by the numbers tonight. Take the Magic.
igz1 sports
3* Texas -115
NSA
20* Magic -4
20* Dodgers +100
20* Twins -115
Billy Coleman
5* St Louis
3* Texas
3* Houston
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units Orlando -4
1 Unit Toronto +135
1 Unit Boston +150
Anthony Redd
20 Dime - Magic (1st Half)
10 Dime - Yankees/Twins Under
Chris Jordan
400* Colorado Rockies RL
100* Orlando Magic
High Stakes Syndicate
Washington: The Nationals (23-22) have righted the ship with a pair of victories over the weekend and now take a 10-game road trip test without C Ivan Rodriguez who’s persistent back injury has moved him to the DL. With catchers Coste and Flores also sidelined, C Wil Nieves (.224, HR, 5 RBI in 58 at-bats) will get the starts for this vastly improved attack. 4.31 runs per game gets Manager Jim Riggleman’s crew in the game this season – especially with a team slugging mark of .420 led by the sticks of Dunn (.250, 9 HR, 21 RBI), Willingham (.267, 8 HR, 28 RBI), and Zimmerman (.308, 8 HR, 25 RBI). 25-year old rookie RHP Luis Atilano (3-1, 5.06 ERA) hasn’t demonstrated great control (19 BB versus 15 K in 32 innings) but he has posted 4 good starts in 6 trips while closer Matt Capps is the squad’s MVP with 16 saves in 17 opportunities.
San Francisco: The Giants’ (22-21) previously respectable offense has flat-out his the skids of late with just 1 run racked over their 3-game series in Oakland, extending their current losing streak to 5 games. LF Mark DeRosa remains on the DL with a wrist injury while C Bengie Molina’s (.294, 2 HR, 10 RBI) power numbers have slid, leaving CF Rowand (.242, 5 HR, 18 RBI), Uribe (.267, 5 HR, 25 RBI), and Huff (.280, 4 HR, 20 RBI) the remaining modest long ball threats for an attack that averages 4.07 runs per game with a slugging mark of .390. However, there is good news for Manager Bruce Bochy’s unit. SS Edgar Renteria (.313, HR, 10 RBI) recently was activated from the disabled list plus RHP Tim Lincecum (5-0, 2.35 ERA) takes the hill tonight. The 4th-year ace is coming off his worst start of the season but with a well-timed extra day of rest.
FREE SELECTION: The Nationals bring the better offensive attack to AT&T Park tonight while even Tim Lincecum needs at least one run – something the Giants haven’t managed in 20 consecutive innings – to post a win. We’ll take the long shot here with Washington + 240
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play San Francisco (-250) over Washington
San Francisco has won 11 of the last 13 games vs. Washington and they have also won 9 of the last 10 games when playing as a favorite of -200 or higher. Tim Lincecum has won 8 of the last 9 games when playing as a favorite of -200 or higher and he is 5-0 this season with an ERA of 2.35.
50* Play Colorado (-240) over Arizona
Colorado has won 3 consecutive games as a favorite of -200 or higher and they have also won 3 consecutive home games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Ubaldo Jimenez has won 14 of the last 16 games as a favorite of -150 or higher and he is also 8-1 this season with an ERA of 0.99.
Mike Lineback
4* POD SF Giants -1.5 -125
4* Milwaukee -114
4* Baltimore -125
ATS Lock Club
3 Units Boston +4
4 Units Seattle -110
4 Units Philadelphia -110
CRAIG DAVIS
100 Dime Colorado Rockies -1.5