Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, April 12

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Texas at Seattle
The Mariners look to build on their 6-1 record in Hisashi Iwakuma's last 7 home starts. Seattle is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Mariners favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+130)

Game 951-952: San Francisco at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 14.935; Cubs (Villanueva) 15.432
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-150); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+130); N/A

Game 953-954: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 15.515; Pittsburgh (Burnett) 14.802
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-110); Over

Game 955-956: Atlanta at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Teheran) 15.658; Washington (Detwiler) 16.256
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-135); Under

Game 957-958: Philadelphia at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lannan) 14.162; Miami (Nolasco) 14.876
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+105); Over

Game 959-960: Milwaukee at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Lohse) 13.377; St. Louis (Miller) 17.931
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 4 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-140); Under

Game 961-962: LA Dodgers at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.128; Arizona (Corbin) 15.822
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+140); Over

Game 963-964: Colorado at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Garland) 15.362; San Diego (Ross) 15.928
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-110); Under

Game 965-966: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Quintana) 14.665; Cleveland (Masterson) 14.169
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+125); Over

Game 967-968: Baltimore at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gonzalez) 16.088; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 14.415
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+130); Over

Game 969-970: Tampa Bay at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Cobb) 15.362; Boston (Doubront) 15.686
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-125); Under

Game 971-972: Toronto at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Happ) 15.024; Kansas City (Mendoza) 14.740
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+105); Under

Game 973-974: Detroit at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 15.550; Oakland (Colon) 18.414
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 3; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-105); Over

Game 975-976: Houston at LA Angels (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Norris) 14.801; LA Angels (Hanson) 14.232
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+170); Under

Game 977-978: Texas at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Darvish) 14.402; Seattle (Iwakuma) 15.161
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+130); Over

Game 979-980: NY Mets at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 15.479; Minnesota (Worley) 15.111
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-115); Under

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh PiratesFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Pittsburgh PiratesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When the Pirates send A. J. Burnett to the mound against Mike Leake and the Reds Friday night at PNC Park, Pittsburgh will do so knowing Burnett is 4-1 at home with a 2.12 ERA in his career teams starts against Cincinnati. On the flip side Leake enters with a dismal 1-5 career team start mark in the Steel City. With that look for Burnett to improve to 14-4 in his last 18 home teams starts during the month of April here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Pittsburgh.

Bryan LeonardFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland A'sFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Detroit TigersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Max Scherzer faces off against Bartolo Colon in the series opener between the Tigers and Athletics. The Oakland lineup is a great matchup for Scherzer. Since the start of 2012, the Athletics have struck out in 22% of their at bats and Scherzer had the highest K/9 of any qualified pitcher last season. Scherzer also issued less than three walks per nine innings. He induces a below average amount of ground balls, so any fly ball tendencies he has will not hurt him in Oakland at night.
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The Tigers lineup has been scoring runs without much difficulty of late and they should be salivating for a look at Bartolo Colon. Colon threw nearly 90% fastballs last season and 91.6% of his pitches in his first start were fastballs. The Tigers were the seventh-most productive team offensively last season on fastballs put in play. With the same core lineup back, and the additions of Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter, that number is likely to go up this season. Tigers hitters are very aggressive, so a guy constantly around the plate like Colon will have a very high percentage of balls put in play.
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The Tigers played a getaway day game and will have had part of Thursday and most of Friday to adjust to the time change and get their rest, while the Athletics played a night game in Anaheim. Scherzer is definitely the better pitcher and as a small favorite, with the momentum that the Tigers lineup has, the Tigers appear to be a strong play.

Jim Feist

Charlotte at Detroit
Pick: Over

A pair of teams going nowhere, and that means no one will care about defense as the lost seasons wind down. Charlotte is 29th in the NBA in points allowed giving up 102.9 ppg. The over is 5-1 in the Bobcats last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. They've had 2 full days off and face a Detroit team that is on a 3-2 run over the total. The Pistons don't play any defense, either, 17th in points allowed and 19th in field goal shooting allowing 46%. The over is is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings, including 6-1 over the total in the last 7 meetings in Detroit. Play the Bobcats/Pistons over the total.

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Baltimore Orioles at New York YankeesFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Baltimore OriolesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I'm going against both the Yankees and Sabathia here. The Yanks have murdered the ball in their last last three outings, putting up 32 runs. Unfortunately for them, they have now been rained out on back to back days, and that's a potential momentum stuffer for a team that was swinging the bats so well. They're also facing a guy who has given them fits in Miguel Gonzalez. Small sample to be sure, but Gonzalez has been outstanding in his prior Yankee Stadium visits. The Orioles righty had some impressive notes out of his first start. Zero line drives, 71% ground balls. I can't expect Gonzalez to be quite that efficient here, but that's still a very positive indicator going in. It means he's locating his pitches well, and if he can keep the Yankees from hitting it in the air tonight, he'll be in good shape. Sabathia was much better in his second start as he shut down Detroit, but there was still some troubling data. The velocity is still down significantly. Sabathia at 90 with the heat is just not as imposing, and his BB/K ratio is still nowhere near where he needs it to be. I have to give Gonzalez the edge on the mound at the present time. Baltimore has the better bullpen, and at this point in the campaign, give me the team that's been playing every day against a team that had to sit around and do nothing for two days. Nice price on the Orioles to boot. The weather might well prevent this from ever getting started, but I'll hope they can get around Mother Nature and I'll grab the plus sign with the Orioles.

Bruce MarshallFOR REE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore Orioles at New York YankeesFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Baltimore OriolesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After romping to three wins in a row earlier this week, the Yankees found someone they couldn't beat...the weatherman! Rainouts the last two days sidelined the Yanks after they rolled to a win on Sunday in Detroit and blasted the Indians in the first two of their midweek set in Cleveland. But the dynamics are now different back at Yankee Stadium where a very confident and capable Baltimore enters tonight. The O's straightened out the past two days with gut-check wins in Boston just when it seemed as if things might begn to unravel after losing three of their previous four, with the bullpen once again delivering for Buck Showalter. Now the Orioles look to continue the momentum in the The bBonx with hot-hitting CF Adam Jones, who has hit safely in all nine games this season and is batting .462 (18 of 39). Starting pitcher Miguel Gonzalez has been quietly effective, too, dispatching the Rays last Thursday in his first 2013 start while allowing only 2 runs in 6 2/3 IP, and remember he fared well vs. New York last year, with a 2-0 mark and 2.63 ERA in the regular season and then yielding only one run over 7 IP in Game Three of the ALCS. Meanwhile, note that Yankee starter CC Sabathia posted a 6.3 ERA in the regular season vs. Baltimore a year ago before faring better in the playoffs. Looks like a tempting dog price on the O's tonight. Play Orioles

Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego PadresFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: San Diego PadresFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After opening the season 5-1, the Rockies went to San Francisco and got swept by the Giants in their three-game series. They should come in with some confidence having already swept San Diego once this season but that was a home and going back to last season, Colorado is 6-21 in its last 27 road games. The Rockies hand the ball over to Jon Garland who is coming off a solid start in his opener, his first outing since June 2011. He allowed two runs on five hits in six innings in his start against the Padres and while he looks to repeat that San Diego has the advantage of facing him a second time in a week. The Padres are off to a very slow start with a 2-7 record including losses in the final two games against the Dodgers. Last night's brawl overshadowed another solid pitching performance as the Padres allowed just 10 runs in the three-game set and they hope Tyler Ross can carry over into that. He is coming off an inconsistent first outing where he allowed three runs on three hits but issued four walks against Colorado. The Rockies also have the edge of seeing him for a second time but this time, it takes place at pitcher friendly Petco Park. San Diego has won seven of the last 10 meetings at home.

Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland Cavaliers +4½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cavaliers are getting too many points against a Knicks team that is playing on back to back nights and coming off a loss against Chicago. New York was on the road against the Bulls and they are on the road against when they face Cleveland tonight. New York’s defense has not been great on the road allowing 97.4 points per game while the offense averages only 97.2 per game offensively.
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The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and they are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss. They face a Knicks team that is trending in the wrong direction. In the heart of their 13 game win streak the Knicks were averaging over 50% shooting. They have gone over 50% only one time in their last four games coming into this matchup against the Cavaliers.

Don Best ConsensusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Brooklyn Nets at Indiana PacersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Brooklyn NetsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Nets are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Nets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.

Vegas ConnectionFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dodgers at DiamondbacksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona Kershaw vs Corbin Any time you put to Kershaw out there there is always a chance you could not only see a shutout but a no hitter Low scoring game inside Chase Field Low scoring game.

Art AronsonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia vs. MiamiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: PhiladelphiaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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John Lannan (0-0, 3.86 ERA) gets the call for the visitors. Lannan looked good in his debut, giving up three runs off five hits over seven frames vs. the Royals on Saturday. Lannan would finish with five K's in the no decision (note that Lannan was 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA on the road last year). Ricky Nolasco (0-1, 3.97 ERA) toes the rubber for the home side. Nolasco gave up three runs and six hits over 5 1/3's frames of work in his team's eventual 7-3 setback to the Mets last Saturday (note that Nolasco was a very pedestrian 6-6 with a 4.52 ERA at home last season). These lineups are clearly moving in opposite directions. The Phillies took two-straight from the Mets over the weekend, led by Ryan Howard who homered in Tuesday's 8-3 victory, and who was 2 for 4 in his team's 7-3 win over New York on Wednesday: "It's not about how you start, it's about how you finish," Howard said yesterday. "I'd rather have a slow start and finish up strong and be in the playoffs and go deep in the playoffs in October. As long as we get going, that's all that matters." Philadelphia has now plated 25 runs over its last four outings, while going yard three times in each of the last two. The Fish are off to a dismal 1-8 start, which represents the team's worst since 1998. Their most recent series vs. the Braves saw them outscored 13-2 and shutout twice. In fact, the Marlins' 16 runs are the fewest in all of MLB, and their .217 average is among the worst in the league. I'm going to give the slight nod to Lannan on the mound, and with a clear advantage at the plate, in my opinion the prudent wager in this one is indeed on Philadelphia. What do you think?

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Phoenix vs. CalgaryFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: CalgaryFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Flames delivered a spirited effort against Vancouver at home on Wednesday but came out on the wrong side of a 4-1 game. It was a lot closer than the score indicates though, as they were level at 1-1 midway through the third period. The Canucks broke the game open in the final eight minutes.
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The Phoenix Coyotes are in town Friday, a team which doesn't have the firepower that the Flames were forced to deal with Wednesday. Phoenix really struggles with special teams. The Coyotes only convert 15 percent of their power play chances this season.
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The Coyotes are a solid team on home ice, where they have earned 13 of their 18 victories this season. They are just 5-9-1 on the road though. Playing the final leg of a West Coast road trip, I feel that they're potentially in a tough spot here.
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Note that the Coyotes, who won 3-1 at Edmonton on Wednesday, are only 26-35 (-11.8) the past few seasons, when off a win by two or more goals.
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While the Coyotes are still holding on to a slim hope that they can advance to the post-season, I believe that the Flames also still have something to play for.
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Since trading away Jarome Iginla and Jay Bowmeester, the Flames are officially rebuilding. That means that their lineup is currently made up of a lot of young talent and players on the cusp. They're fighting for a job with an NHL club and want to make a good impression. With some recent losses on home ice, the young Flames also really want to win one for the home fans.
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There is no question this team still has a lot of fight, the Flames have averaged 38 shots, while out-shooting their opponent in each of their last three games.
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Coach Bob Hartley noted: "I like my entire team's effort. ... The young players are coming in and giving us some great minutes. They're contributing, they're skating hard, I think we're seeing some great chemistry."
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I expect the Flames to continue playing with purpose and I won't be at all surprised to see them score the upset here. Consider Calgary.

Will RogersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota vs. UtahFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UtahFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Despite being one game back of the Lakers for the 8th & final playoff spot in the West, the Jazz still have the advantage of owning the head to head tiebreak, so they only need to finish the regular season tied with LA. They clearly have the easier schedule down the stretch, mainly because of a home & home with the Minnesota T'wolves. They are big favorites to win the front end at home Friday night & I see them covering.
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Here are my keys to the game.FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1. Homecourt Advantage - Though they lost their last home game, Tuesday vs. Oklahoma City, this is a significant step down in class for the Jazz, who are 29-11 straight up this season in Salt Lake City. Minnesota is just 10-29 SU on the road. This includes a loss in their only prior visit to EnergySolutions Arena, 106-84 as 3-pt dogs back on January 2nd. That was the Timberwolves fifth loss in a row here, a streak that has also seen them go 0-5 against the spread.
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2. Defense - Minnesota is not a good defensive team to begin with, allowing 101 pts/game on the road. They allowed more than that in their previous visit to Utah and have in fact allowed more than 100 points in three straight games. Most recently, they allowed the Clippers to score 111 on 57% shooting Wednesday.
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3. X-Factor - Ultimately, this comes down to the fact Utah is in a playoff chase and playing its final home game, while Minnesota is playing its third road game in four nights, will host Phoenix tomorrow night and then complete the home and home with the Jazz two days later.

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Minnesota +9FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Let's be honest. The league wants the Lakers in the playoffs, and the Jazz face the Timberwolves twice while the Lakers face very good teams down the stretch, including the Warriors and a couple above-.500 teams. You think Minnesota likes being told they are horrible on ESPN? Trust me when I tell you, they will show up to this game as they will show some pride and will not be thought of as an afterthought. This is a team that is not going to the playoffs, so this is as relevant as they will be this late in the season, and they likely show up in this spot. This team has not quit on the season as they are 5-5 going into the Clippers game Wednesday, and I like them to do well as decent sized underdog at Utah.