SPORTS WAGERS
New York -4½ over CLEVELAND
In their previous two matchups this season, the Knicks have not managed to beat Cleveland by more than five points but that was then and this is now. A lot has changed since then. New York just had its 13-game winning streak snapped last night in an overtime loss to the Bulls but can’t afford to take its eyes off this opponent. The Pacers, with two games in hand on the Knicks, are just two games back of New York for the coveted #2 seed in the East. If the Knicks lose this game (Indy is at home to Brooklyn), they could potentially be just one game ahead of the Pacers when they meet on Sunday at Madison Square Gardens. The motivation to maintain the second seed will ensure the Knicks stay focused against the injury riddled Cavs. The Knicks have played well in the second of back to back games this season with an 11-6 record both straight up and against the spread. Most recently the Knicks are 3-0 straight up and ATS in the tail end of back-to-backs. Fatigue and focus doesn’t figure to be a factor working against the Knicks and with all things being equal, they should have little trouble of disposing of this inferior enemy.
LA Clippers/NEW ORLEANS Over 192
Two of the three meetings between these clubs this season have gone over the number. Both teams also boast favorable over/under records this year in favor of the over and right now the Clippers are firing away on all cylinders. The Clip Joint games have gone over in four straight and in eight of their past 10. L.A. has won its last three games by 16, 14 and 25 points respectively, so it’s a style that is suiting them well. No reason to change it here against this uninspired host that has officially been eliminated from playing in the post-season.
New Orleans has played over the number in two straight while playing out the string. Intensity levels for the Hornets are way down because the games are meaningless. That allows them to be a lot more carefree and not worry about missing shots or playing defense. The Hornets have also gone over the total in their previous three home games and right now the focus for New Orleans is more on entertaining the fans than playing strong defense. The Clippers should be happy to oblige that style, as it’s been a winning one for them recently as they jockey for position in the playoff seedings.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
San Diego/ Colorado Over 7: They moved the fences in at Petco and after the first 2 gams played there I can see an uptrun in scoring in this park. Thursday night there wasn't much scoring, but I see this one being much like the first two played here in which San Diego and LA combined for 19 runs and 45 hits, especially with a good hitting Rockies squad coming to town. The Rockies are 10th in scoring at 5.22 rpg, and 2nd in the league in hitting at .287 and last year Colorado did score 21 runs in their last 3 games played in this park and remember last year's park was bigger. Tyson Ross had a rough opening start for the Padres, allowing 3 ER's on 3 hits and 4 walks in just 4 innings, giving him a 1.75 WHIP for that start. I know it's just 1 start, but he is used to high WHIPs as his career WHIP is 1.61 and that goes along with his career 5.61 ERA in 54 appearances (22 Starts). Well some can say that he has way more pen appearances than starts, but let's also note that in 22 career starts he has a 5.35 ERA and a 159 WHIP and I feel the Rockies can knock him around some tonight. The Padres offense is dealing with some injuries but they still hit very well in the Dodgers series and they should continue that vs Jon Garland, who has a career 4.60 ERA on the road and a career 4.756 ERA during the 1st month of the season. He does have a 3.22 ERA in this park, but that was when it was a bigger park and he does have a 3.60 ERA vs the Padres. 7 Is just to low in the park, especially with at least 1 top notch offense and 2 shaky pitchers on the mound. Like above I expect no less than 9 runs in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Detroit/ Oakland Over 7.5: This Oakland offense is just amazing right now. They come in ranked 1st in scoring and 5th in hitting and as I right this they have 12 more hits and 6 runs through 6 innings vs the Angels. Now they come home where they put up 14 runs in their last 2 home games vs Seattle and face Max Scherzer, who is not a great pitcher on the road. Max has a 4.15 ERA in his career road starts,including a 5.56 ERA in 2 starts in this park, plus he is also a slow starter, posting a 4.66 ERA in 21 career starts during the 1st month of the season. That continued in his last start as he has a 7.20 ERA through 1 start and that doesn't figure to improve vs the hottest offense in the league. Bartolo Colon has a nice ERA in this park (3.15), but not good numbers vs the Tigers, posting a 5.60 ERA in 24 starts vs them. The Over is 10-4 in the A's last 14 off a trip of 7 or more days, while the Over is 5-0 in Scherzer's last 5 as a favorite. Scherzer is not a good pitcher on the road and the fact that Detroit is favored on the road vs this white hot offense is an indication to me that Detroit will put sum runs up, while Oakland will also get their far share of runs as well. Look for 9+ runs here.
Houston/ LA Angels Over 8: Bud Norris has had two very nice starts this year so far, but both of those starts were at home, where he has a career 3.50 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. Tonight he is out on the road where he has struggled Mightily in his career. In 49 career road starts, Bud is 11-23 with a 5.39 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP, plus teams have hit .279 vs him away from home. Big difference between home and road for him. I don't expect the numbers to improve tonight vs a very angry Halos squad tat was just swept at home vs the A's. This is an offense with an abundance of hitting and they should explode vs a pitcher who is horrible away from home. Tommy Hanson allowed 3 ER's in his first start at Texas and may give up a run or two more vs a Houston squad that put up 24 runs in their last 2 games vs Seattle. Houston has put up at least 3 runs in 5 of their last 6 games and If they get at least 3 in this one then I don't see how we don't get at least a push in this in, because I do not expect the Halos to be held below 5 runs here. One other thing I haven't touched on is the fact that both pens are horrible, which should give us late runs as well. I look for at least 10 in this one.
Texas -142 over SEATTLE: In keeping with my late night theme for my top plays I will go with Tthe Rangers and Darvish in this one. Yu has struggled some with Seattle, going just 2-2 with a 6.65 ERA in 4 career starts vs them, but he had three really bad starts vs them and they were all before the middle of July. In his last 9 starts last year the Rangers were 7-2 and he didn't allow more than 3 ER's in any of those games. He did face Seattle once in that stretch, allowing just 1 ER in 9 innings in that start. So far this year Yu has picked up where he left off late last year, posting a 2-0 mark and a 1.98 ERA, with 20 K's and just 4 walks in his 2 starts thus far. Hishashi Iwakuma has not had good numbers ver Texas, going 1-2 with a 4.67 ERA in 3 starts vs them and while he has had a couple of opening starts I just don't see him getting it done vs a Texas team that has shown it can still score even without Hamilton. Look for Texas to take game 2 here behind another strong performance from Darvish.