Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, April 1,2011

Marc Lawrence

Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers
Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers

When the Trailblazers host the Thunder in a key Western Conference showdown Friday night Portland will take the floor knowing that despite playing with triple revenge this evening they are 7-3 ATS in this series the last 10 games in this series, including 3-0 SU and ATS in games in which OKC arrives off a double-digit ATS win. With Portland off a straight up road favorite loss at New Orleans two nights ago, look the Blazers to make amends here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Portland.

Scott Spreitzer

Angels at Royals
Play: Under

Kansas City is grooming serious talent "down on the farm." But they're at least one more season away from watching some of that talent blossom at the Major League level. Instead, this promises to be yet another long summer for the Royal faithful. Yesterday, the Angel bullpen gave KC every opportunity to come from behind and "steal" a late-inning win. But KC is simply anemic at the plate. Take Melky Cabrera's at-bats out of the boxscore and the rest of the lineup went just 4 of 29 at the plate, a "sizzling" .138 team batting average. I expect another tough day at the plate against Dan Haren, who owns strong April numbers. KC will counter with Jeff Francis, who I believe will put up decent numbers this season, even if it doesn't show in his win/loss record. Francis faces an Angels' lineup that went just 3-11 in road night games against southpaws last season, averaging just 3.1 rpg. Very little clutch hitting yesterday for LAA, and I expect more of the same tonight. Meanwhile, the Royals just don't have the bats to take advantage of any Angel pitching miscues. Haren starts are on a 7-0-1 run to the Under and I expect another low scoring game in this one.

Frank Jordan

New York Mets vs. Florida Marlins
Play: New York Mets

The Mets enter 2011 very banged up and full of question marks, but the one thing they have going for them is they do have a knack for winning on opening day. This year will be one of the tougher ones as Florida is throwing their ace Josh Johnson who is a stud. Johnson had his issues with the Mets last year going 0-1 in three starts with an era over four. Look for the Mets to stay hot on opening day as Johnson once again hits a bump in the road against the Mets. Play NY Mets

BIGG AL

San Antonio @ Houston
PICK: Houston

When these two teams met last month at the Toyota Center, the Spurs caught a break, and Houston forward Luis Scola didn't play. San Antone won that game 115-107, but the Rockets haven't lost at home since. And it seems as if the Spurs haven't caught a break since. San Antonio had stormed out to the league's best record at 57-13, but then the injury bug hit, and the Spurs are now mired in a 5-game losing streak, their worst since the 1996-97 season. Yesterday's loss at home to Boston was a result of hot shooting by the Celtics, and poor 3-point shooting by the Spurs. Perhaps the league has finally figured out how to stifle the Spurs' offense, as gunners like Matt Bonner and Gary Neal are no longer getting the open looks which were available earlier this season. When healthy, Houston matches up very well with San Antonio, and I expect Scola, Chuck Hayes, Chase Budinger and Kevin Martin to have very big nights. Take Houston.

Steve Janus

1* Clippers +5

The Suns chances of making the playoffs are done for, and this team is struggling to cross the finish line. They have loss 4 straight and 9 of 12. The Clippers are finally back to full health and appear motivated to finish the season strong. I will take the 5 points, but I really like the Clippers to win this game outright. Phoenix is just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games, while the Clippers are 13-4 ATS after playing 2 consecutive home games this season.

Bobby Conn

Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

High number to lay today is why you'll find this one played for a smaller unit on the free side rather than on the premium side. David Price dominated the O's last year, giving up a single run in 15 innings of work. Jeremy Guthrie did not throw well during the spring, giving up 22 hits, 10 runs and striking out only 7 batters in 14 innings. Everyone is kind of down on Tampa this year and high on Baltimore's acquisitions. Not me, I'll play a small one on Tampa today.

Info Plays

3* Grizzlies +1.5

Reasons why the Grizzlies will cover:

1) Memphis is 5-1 in their last six games, with their only loss coming at Chicago. I look for Memphis to bring everything they have to the floor tonight, as they could possibly move from the 8th spot to a tie for the 6th spot with a win against the Hornets.

2) The Grizzlies have lost their last two against the Hornets, but that sets up a very profitable spot for Memphis, as they are 13-5 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent this season.

3) New Orleans is just 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite, and only 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.

Bryan Leonard

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs

We don't normally play favorites in this price range but we made the number -190 which gives us a sizable edge over the current line. There is no better team to fade on the road that the Pittsburgh Pirates. Expected to win just 67 games this year the Pirates have the lowest expectations in baseball. Kevin Correia will be making his Pirates debut and it won't be long before everyone notices that Petco Park was the reason for any of his past success.

The Cubs have a solid staff this year as they are one of the deepest rotations in the National League. Ryan Dempster is often undervalued as he doesn't have overpowering stuff. That said, he is a quality starter that we get to back at a bargain price. He is 26-14 in his career at Wrigley Field and 7-2 as of late in the opening month of the season.

EZWINNERS

Oregon Ducks -4.5

The Ducks evened this series up winning game two 71-58 in rather easy fashion on Wednesday night and I expect them to do so again in this game. The Blue jays did not shoot lights out on the road as they had done at home throughout the CBI tournament and they also turned the ball over at an alarming rate. The Ducks led 35-9 in points off of turnovers and 14-2 in fast break points. I expect a similar outcome in this game. Home teams have won fifteen of the sixteen CBI Tournament games this year and I look for that home cooking to continue. Lay the points.

James Patrick Sports

Bulls vs. Pistons

The Bulls love taking the short trip to Detroit, going (7-1 ATS) in their past eight visits to the Motor City and Chicago is (15-2-1 ATS) in the past 18 meetings with the Pistons overall, Big Game James Patrick's complimentary selection in Friday NBA action is Chicago Bulls.

Tom Stryker

Chi. White Sox @ Cleveland
PICK: Chi. White Sox

After falling short last season and watching Minnesota take the AL Central title, Chicago will be champing at the bit to get after it in 2011. The Pale Hose get a quick test on the division start on the road at Cleveland and it's one that they'll pass with flying colors.

Veteran southpaw Mark Buehrle will get the pill for the White Sox and he's got something to prove. Last season wasn't one of Buehrle's best for Chicago. With 210.1 innings in the bank, Mark was tagged for 100 earned runs and 246 hits. That produced an average-at-best 13-13 record and an elevated 4.28 ERA! Fortunately, for us, the South Sider's have cashed 15 of their last 22 with No. 56 toeing the rubber including six of their last seven in division play.

Right-hander Fausto Carmona will counter for Cleveland on Thursday afternoon. After a stellar season in 2007, Carmona has struggled to find his form the last three years. In 2008, Fausto finished with an 8-7 record and an elevated 5.44 ERA. Went from bad-to-worse in 2009 posting a 5-12 mark and a ridiculous 6.32 ERA. And, last season, finished one game under the .500-mark (13-14) with a 3.77 ERA!

Fausto has enjoyed a little success against the ChiSox winning seven straight. However, this is not the spot for the Tribe. Against left-handers, the Indians have dropped 37 of their last 55.

With the addition of Adam Dunn, the Pale Hose will be a bit more offensive this season. Watch Ozzie's troops get out of the gate quickly in this important division battle. Take Chicago with listed pitcher Buehrle.

Tom Freese

Denver Nuggets vs. Sacramento Kings
Play: Denver Nuggets -5½

Sacramento is 21-53 straight up this year. The Kings are 14-29 ATS in home games when playing a team with winning road record. The Kings are 25-40 ATS in home games vs. a team who shoots 76% from the foul line. Denver is 45-29 straight up this year. The Nuggets are 18-7-1 ATS their last 26 games overall and they are 10-2-1 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. The Nuggets are 18-7-1 ATS when playing with one day of rest. Denver is 7-1-1 ATS their last 9 games following a straight win by more than 10 points.

JR O'Donnell

Toronto -135

We are super super high on Toronto Jays 26 year old Starter Ricky Romero as the Jays open the 2011 season off a real nice Offensive spring. Romero who was a solid 14-9 with a 3.73 ERA last year will be the man @ the sold out Rogers Center. The Jays last year hung up 257 home runs as they easily led the MLB Bigs. This year new skipper John Farrell wants the team to play some small ball, force the issue and be more active on the base paths. Stealing bases, hit and runs, bunting etc... The Jays have a young stud line up hurlers.

R Romero was a solid 2-0 with a 2.78 ERA in three starts versus the Twins. The Twins will fire out re tread C Pavano who will get hit by these nasty Jays. The Jays have a quiet stud behind the dish in J Arencibia he slammed 32 homers, 85 RBIs and tore up the Las Vegas with a .300 BA..... LET'S FIRE OUT A TORONTO JAYS FRIDAY WINNER.

Matt Fargo

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Portland Trail Blazers -2½

This is an excellent spot for Portland which returns home following a disappointing 1-2 roadtrip. One of those losses came in Oklahoma City so the Blazing will be playing with some revenge and they are actually down 3-0 in the season series so they have triple-revenge going their way tonight. Portland is 26-10 at home this season including wins in six straight games with two of those coming against the Mavericks and the Spurs and it has won 22 of 29 home games when listed as the favorite.

Oklahoma City has won its last five games while also going 11-1 in its last 12 games and 14-2 in its last 16 games so to say the Thunder are playing good would be an understatement. The problem is that despite this recent dominance, they have not been able to move up in the Western Conference standings as they have only been able to hold off the Nuggets in the Northwest Division. Looking ahead, there is little chance for a move up as they trail Dallas by two and a half games.

On the other hand, Portland needs to keep winning. The Blazers likely will not fall out of the playoff picture as they are four games clear of Houston which is currently the ninth place team but they are just a game out of eighth place as well as currently being tied for sixth place. Getting that sixth seed could be ideal as it means avoiding the Lakers and Spurs in the first round of the playoffs. Getting Dallas in the first round is no prize but they are 1-2 against the Mavericks with the losses coming by a combined eight points.

This is a great number for the Blazers to be laying. Portland is 13-5 ATS this season when favored by fewer than four points including a 6-1 ATS mark at home. Also, the Blazers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after having lost two of their last three games this season and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss. The favorite has brought home the cash in seven of the last 10 meetings in this series and that trend continues tonight. 3* Portland Trailblazers