Jim Feist
Spurs at Rockets
Pick: Rockets
Houston is motivated, winning 6 of 8 games because they are trying to overtake Memphis for the final playoff spot in the West. The Rockets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. San Antonio has the best record in the NBA, but not lately as injuries have ravaged them the last week. Tim Duncan is out, with Ginobili and guard Tony Parker not 100%. Houston is rested for this state rivalry game, while San Antonio is in a tough situational spot after playing the Celtics last night on national TV. Play the Rockets!
Craig Trapp
Arizona D-Backs vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies -1.5
First half of last season saw COL's Jimenez just tear it up. Today he is lucky he gets to face the worst lineup in baseball in ARI. The strike outs might be down for ARI but the power also will be down. COL is such a good home offensive team historically that think its safe to lay the run line here.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Clippers +5
Fading the Phoenix Suns is the only move now late in the season. That's because Phoenix as a team realizes that they are not going to make the playoffs in the Western Conference, and they have certainly been playing like it of late. Phoenix, loser of four in a row, could find itself eliminated from postseason contention by the end of Friday night as it faces the Los Angeles Clippers. The Suns would also be eliminated if they end up in a tie with Houston and Utah as well as Memphis, based on winning percentage in all games among the tied teams.
While the Suns have packed it in, the Clippers continue to fight. "I'm trying to see who wants to compete, get coached and be developed," coach Vinny Del Negro said following a 106-100 home loss to Dallas on Wednesday. "I'm trying to see what type of nucleus we have with our core guys and trying to continue to develop our young players." Los Angeles is 8-6 over their last 14 games, and they have gotten a major boost from point guard Mo Williams since he was traded from Cleveland. Williams is averaging 17.1 points per game since the trade. The Clippers are fully healthy too which is a big reason for their recent success, with both Chris Kaman and Eric Gordon returning from injuries recently. Roll with L.A. Friday.
Lenny Del Genio
Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays were outstanding as home favorites LY going 33-14 and will start the underrated Rocky Romero on Opening Day after he posted a solid 3.73 ERA in 32 starts in 2010. They took six of nine from the Twins last season and Minnesota scored only 4.4 runs per game vs. lefties in 2010. Carl Pavano could be in for a rough first start as Toronto killed righties here at Rogers Centre, going 42-24 (+$1425). Take Toronto.
SPORTS WAGERS
Boston –1½ +140 over TEXAS
Playing in the ultra-competitive American League East, Boston finished seven games behind division-winner Tampa Bay last season so it should come as no surprise that general manager Theo Epstein pushed all of his chips to the middle of the table this past winter and helped Boston become the AL's clear-cut offseason winner. Epstein traded for San Diego Padres' slugger Adrian Gonzalez. Just a few days later he signed free agent outfielder Carl Crawford. Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler were also added to bolster the pen. Nice additions to a lineup that already features guys like Kevin Youkillis, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz and Jacoby Ellsbury. Jon Lester starts the opener and he ranks amongst the leagues best. Lester’s ground-ball profile continues to improve every year. Last season he struck out 220 batters in 203 IP. He had an outstanding ERA and an even more impressive WHIP of 1.20. Lester is consistently dominant on the mound. Today, he’ll face C.J. Wilson. Wilson effectively made the transition from a relief role to the starting rotation last season, though his skills were not as impressive as his surface stats. His ERA outperformed his xERA (expected ERA) and that’s a sure sign that his surface stats were very misleading. His 74% strand rate is high and reason for concern, as is his receding ground-ball rate. While Wilson showed improvement in the second half, his pedestrian skills inspire skepticism in his ability to repeat his 2010 performance. The 130-IP increase in workload merely adds to that skepticism. Buyer beware. Boston gets out of the gate impressively here. Play: Boston –1½ +140 (Risking 2 units).
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Milwaukee Bucks +2.5
The Bucks have to get this one in order to hold onto any hope of sneaking into the playoffs. They are three games behind Indiana for the final playoff spot in the East, and they won't go down without a fight. "This is probably do or die for us," Andrew Bogut said. "This game is everything for us... Milwaukee has had its share of success against Indiana. The Bucks have won 6 of the last 7 meetings, including 3 in a row at Conseco Fieldhouse. Going to the numbers, we find the Bucks at 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. We also find the Pacers at 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Bucks are 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in this series and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Indiana. The road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Expect Milwaukee's success against Indiana to continue this evening. Take the points.
Ray Monohan
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers
Play: Under 191½
After coming within one botched blockout from pushing the Lakers to a Game 7 in the playoffs last season tonight we get an interesting matchup in Portland. My question, just how uncomfortable can the Thunder make things in the Western Conference this post-season. With 8 games to go OKC has already equaled last season regular-season win total (50) and the Thunder have jumped from an 8 seed in 2009-10 to a probable 4 this season. The addition of Perkins has added a nasty streak to the front line, and the team’s defense is clearly improved. The Western Conference is not quite the beast it was last season, when every playoff team won at least 50 games in the regular season. Kevin Durant is still harder to defend than anyone not located in Los Angeles or Miami. It might be a good idea not to sleep on these guys. Perhaps most importantly, the Thunder have some momentum as they hit the home stretch. Their victory over Phoneix on Wednesday in the first game of a four-game road swing was OKC’s fifth victory in a row. The Thunder held the Suns to under 100 points in a surprisingly easy 116-98 win. They absolutely love the defense they get with Perkins at center and Serge Ibaka at the 4. One of OKC’s victories in the current 4-game win streak was over the Blazers. But Portland always play tough in Portland, so who knows? Liking OKC tonight in Portland in a close game that has under written all over it.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Thunder/Trail Blazers UNDER 191.5
Play Under on road teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points that are up against a division opponent and off a road win are 35-14 (71.4%) the last 5 seasons. The Under is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in this series. The Under is also 13-3-1 in the Trail Blazers' last 17 games vs. a team with a winning SU record and 15-4-2 in the Thunder's last 21 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. We'll take the Under as defense takes center stage in this battle.
Dave Price
1 Unit on LA Clippers +5.5
Phoenix has packed it in with 4 consecutive losses while the Clippers continue to fight. The Suns are all but officially eliminated from playoff contention and they are a tired team. Consider that Phoenix is just 2-12 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. The Suns are losing these contests by an average of 6.0 points. Take the points.
Rob Vinciletti
Red Sox vs Rangers
Play: Under 9
This game pits two of the finest pitchers in the American League in J. Lester and CJ. Wilson. Lester has allowed just 3 runs in his last 2 starts in Texas. Wilson has completely shut down the Redsox allowing just 2 earned runs with 11 hits and no home runs over his last 21 innings against them. Look for this one to go under and wait till game time as this total may get up to nine.
Black Widow
1* on New Orleans Hornets -1.5
The New Orleans Hornets get the call Friday as just a small home favorite over the Memphis Grizzlies. We'll certainly side with the home team in this crucial game that has 7th place in the Western Conference playoffs on the line. The Hornets are 25-11 at home this year, while the Grizzlies are 15-23 on the road. New Orleans is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 185 and 189.5 points this season. Memphis is 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons. The Hornets are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 Friday games. It will be a packed house for this big game in New Orleans tonight and the Hornets will feed off of their home crowd to come away with a victory. Take the Hornets and lay the points.
Larry Ness
San Antonio @ Houston
PICK: Houston -1.5
The Rockets are three games out of the final playoff spot in the West with just seven games remaining. That’s pretty much “desperation time” for Houston. However, the bigger story in this game is what’s happening to the Spurs. San Antonio has owned the NBA’s best record from almost Day One of this year’s NBA season but the Spurs will ‘limp’ into Houston tonight on the heels of a five-game losing slide. The Spurs were seemingly on ‘cruise control’ less than two weeks ago. The team was 57-13 through 70 games and with just 12 games remaining, was all but assured of securing the NBA’s overall No. 1 seed with an excellent chance of surpassing the team’s franchise-record win total of 63, set back in 2005-06. So much for that. The Spurs would have to now “win-out” to reach 64 victories but clearly the more pressing concern is that the Lakers (winners of eight straight and 16 of 17 since the break), are just two games behind them in the loss column and 2 1/2 games behind overall, in the ‘race’ for the West’s best record. Can the Spurs turn it around? Duncan (20 points / 13 rebounds) returned last night vs Boston (after missing four games) and Ginobili was back after sitting out one game but the Spurs still lost, 107-97. The good news here for San Antonio is that they Spurs are 3-0 vs the Rockets this year, averaging a whopping 115.7 PPG. The bad news is that Houston has been playing well since the All-Star break, going 13-5 SU and 12-5-1 ATS. Granted, the Rockets have had a tough time against the Spurs but Houston has won its last five home games since losing 115-107 to the Spurs on March 12. I won’t be shocked if the Spurs win but right now, want no part of them until they finally come out of their current ‘free-fall.’ I’m taking the Rockets.
MTi Sports
Heat at Timberwolves
Prediction: Under
The Heat are 0-12 OU (-15.2 ppg) after a double digit win in which they shot at least 50% from the field. Minnesota is 0-9 OU (-10.2 ppg) as a dog with at least one day of rest after a home loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field and 0-6 OU (-10.2 ppg) at home after a loss in which Kevin Love played fewer than 30 minutes. Take these two UNDER.