Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday April, 13

SPORTS WAGERS

NHL SERIES

FLORIDA +167 over New Jersey

This is a series everyone assumes the Devils are going to win but we’re not as convinced, as Florida is truly a team with nothing to lose. "We're going in loose," GM Dale Tallon said Sunday. "Everyone's waiting for the other shoe to drop, but we're going to have some fun with this." While the Devils seem to hold a significant edge in terms of the firepower up front, there are still questions about the blue line. They have been without their best defenseman, Henrik Tallinder, for the last half of the season and blood clotting issues look to keep him out of the playoffs. No defenseman had more than four goals. While the addition of Marek Zidlicky at the trade deadline added a little oomph to the blue line, the reality is the Devils won't get much help from the back end when it comes to offense. The Panthers, by comparison, are downright dynamic on the back end. Led by Brian Campbell, who finished tied for second among all defensemen with 53 points and second among defensemen with 49 assists, the Panthers' blue line is crucial to generating offense. Jason Garrison enjoyed a breakout year with 16 goals, third among defensemen. Dmitry Kulikov, who had 27 points, is another weapon from the back end. In a series that figures to be tight, production from the blue line, or lack thereof, might be a deciding factor. Lastly, we’ve been suggesting all year that Marty Brodeur is a big liability and we’re not about to change our tune now. He’s allowed an inordinate amount of soft goals and could easily cost the Devils this series. The price, the lack of pressure, the much stronger goaltending and defense make the Panthers very appealing taking back a tag like this with home ice advantage. Play: Florida +167 (Risking 1 unit).

Marc Lawrence

Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks and Magic meet in Disney World Friday evening in a key Southeast Division clash with both teams looking to get back up off the mat with Atlanta off an overtime loss at Boston on Wednesday while Orlando fell in a puzzling 8-point loss at Washington Tuesday night. Considering the Magic's sporadic play this season, including a 4-9 ATS mark in division duels, look for the Hawks to improve to 7-0 SU and ATS in this series when playing off a loss here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Atlanta.

Nick Parsons

Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates

After being swept three games by Arizona to start the season, then taking two of three in Colorado, the Giants finally return to the Bay area for their home opener. Matt Cain gets the mound as he faces off against 6'5' James McDonald of the Pirates. Cain was recently signed to a $100 million dollar contract, one of the richest in the league and is a below .500 career pitcher. This signing was basically a thank you for the 21.5 scoreless innings he tossed during the 2010 playoffs, en route to a World Series title. While Matt Cain was nasty at home in 2010 he was the opposite in 2011 with a lack-luster 6-5 record in 16 starts at McCovey Cove. The Pirates on the other hand took two of three at home from Philly then dropped a two game set at Dodgers Stadium. McDonald recorded a W in his first start of the year as a home dog vs the Phillies, and we expect to see another strong outing against the Giants. McDonald had success against the Giants last year going 7 innings at home in a 2-0 victory to start out the season last April and also made a start in AT&T ballpark in August, losing 6-0, but only giving up 3 ER over 6 innings. Yesterday the Giants bats were quiet vs 49 year old Jamie Moyer, who was tossing in the high 60's/low 70's. S.F. only managed 4 runs in their 4-1 victory, may have a bit of a shock to the system to be facing the hard throwing McDonald. These teams split their season series 3-3 last year, with the visiting team taking the series each time. Matt Cain is coming off a rough outing, giving up two home runs, and may be feeling early pressure from such a huge contract signing. We will back James McDonald and the young Pirates as they play spoiler for the Giants' home opener.

Rob Vinciletti

Dallas Mavericks vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Dallas Mavericks -2

Dallas has Home loss revenge here tonight and several Key angles in their favor. The Mavericks are a solid 36-5 straight up the last 3 seasons in the second half vs teams who are under .500. They have won and covered 3 of the last at Portland when playing with no rest and have won 9 of 10 with 8 spread wins as a road favorite with no rest off a road game. Both times this season a team when into Portland with no rest they won and covered. Look for the Mavericks to emerge with the wind and cover here tonight.

Ben Burns

Flyers @ Pittsburgh Penguins
PICK: Under 6

Nice start to the NHL playoffs. I've gone 2-0 with my premium (guarnateed) plays while also going 2-0 with free plays. After a win with LA over Vancouver Wednesday, I came back with an underdog winner on San Jose over St. Louis yesterday. Today's complimentary total also offers the chance to get more back than we wagered.

In other words, we're able to get "plus money" on the "under 6" for this game. While the first game was indeed high-scoring (4-3 Flyers in OT) I feel that's providing us with excellent value. With all due respect to these offenses, in my humble opinion, I feel that's simply too high for a playoff game.

While the Pens have certainly been a high-scoring team, keep in mind that the "under" is stil 4-1-1 when the Flyers have played a road game with an O/U line of six, 13-7-2 their last 22 in that situation.

Four of six regular season meetings produced six or fewer goals. I feel this one has a better chance of finishing with less than six than I do with more than six goals. That being the case, this price provides value. Consider the Under.

David Chan

Phoenix @ Houston
PICK: Under 199.5

I bet value where I see it and believe we'll see a tight, low-scoring game.

The Suns are 30-28 and are coming off a 104-93 setback at Memphis on Wednesday.

It snapped their two game streak, and dropped them to 10th spot in the West.

'We really have to focus on getting every win possible and not worry about the standings,' said the Suns Josh Childress. 'When the season is over, see where we stand. We can't be playing for that seed. We've got to be playing to win every game.'

Marcin Gortat had 19-points; Shannon Brown had 18; Markieff Morris added 17.

Steve Nash chipped in 11-points and 10-assists.

"We've got to do a better job finishing games, especially on the road," coach Alvin Gentry said. "We play hard and we put ourselves in a position to have an opportunity to win a game, and you just have to finish it."

The Rockets are 33-26 and are coming off a 103-91 loss to Utah on Wednesday. It was a big loss for Houston, as it snapped a four-game win streak, and dropped it behind Dallas in the standings:

'We weren't sharp, we had some turnovers,' coach Kevin McHale said. 'We had opportunities, but could not seem to make that big shot, or that big play that would kind of get us over the hump.'

Goran Dragic had 19; Kyle Lowry added 15.

Whenever these conference opponents battle each other, we've seen some pretty defensive affairs, as all three in the series so far this season have gone "under" the posted number; I'm expecting this strong O/U trend to continue here.

This one will definitely have a "playoff air" surrounding it, and because of that, and when also taking into consideration the rest of the factors I've listed above, expect to see a high intensity defensive performance from each side from the opening tip to the final horn; consider a second look at the "under"!

Sean Murphy

Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays

The Red Sox still have only one win this season, and that came in a game they trailed heading into the ninth inning. I look for the Rays to add to their woes on Friday afternoon at Fenway Park.

There's absolutely no intimidation factor at play in this one, as Tampa Bay took seven of 10 meetings here in Boston last season. The Rays certainly don't mind kicking the Red Sox while they're down, and they should be in a foul mood after dropping two of three games in Detroit.

I like the way the pitching matchup sets up for the Rays, as they send David Price to the hill against Josh Beckett.

Price had some control issues in his season debut, but still managed to work into the seventh inning, allowing only five hits and two earned runs in an eventual 8-6 win over the Yankees. The Rays are a perfect 4-0 in his last four outings here at Fenway Park.

Josh Beckett was rocked by the Tigers in his first start of the season, allowing seven hits and seven earned runs over 4 2/3 innings of work. He gave up five home runs in the game. That unsettling trend seems to have carried over from last season, as he was tagged for home runs in 10 of his final 12 starts in 2011.

The Rays are simply the better team at this point, and I'm not sure that throngs of supporters will help the Red Sox today. Tampa Bay has proven it can win big games at Fenway Park, and I expect a similar story to unfold on Friday afternoon.

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

Sacramento @ Oklahoma
PICK: Under 213

Sacramento is 19-40 (5-25 on the road). Oklahoma City is 42-16 (24-6 at home). The last time these team's played against each other, the Kings won 106-101 in Sacramento on February 9th, 2012. That was the Kings only win in the last five in this series.

Sacramento lost 105-96 at New Orleans on Wednesday. Marcus Thornton had 25-points. Tyreke Evans chipped in 19. It was the Kings sixth straight setback.

The Thunder are also coming off a loss, 100-98 to the Clippers on Wednesday. Kevin Durant had 22-points. Russell Westbrook scored 20. James Harden had 17-points off the bench. Oklahoma City remains one game ahead of the Spurs, and two games behind first place Chicago for the overall No. 1 seed. 'We just got lazy in the second half,' said Harden. 'We didn't come out with that aggression like we did in the first half to really control him, and he took advantage of it.'

Sacramento has seen the total go "under" the number in 16 of 29 on the road this year, while Oklahoma City has seen it go "under" the number in 30 of 58 overall.

These teams play three of their final eight games against each other to close out the year.

Oklahoma City is having difficulties holding onto the top spot in the West, as its lost four of its last six; all four losses have come against playoff bound teams.

With stars Durant and Westbrook struggling (Westbrook has shot less than 35% in each of the last four losses and was just 3 of 14 from the floor vs. Clippers. Durant has averaged 21.3 points on 38.8% shooting over his past three-games. For anyone else this wouldn't be too big, but that's 6.2 less than his season average. When you consider that the losses to Memphis, Miami, Indiana and the Clippers came by an average of 4.5-points, then this drop becomes absolutely significant), expect to see Oklahoma City play with urgency on the defensive end tonight as it desperately attempts to win the games it's "supposed" to win, in the final weeks leading up to the playoffs.

And that game-plan spells doom for the suddenly offensively challenged Kings, who have scored 96-points or fewer in four of their last five. DeMarcus Cousins has averaged 12.8-points over his past five games, which is 13.6 fewer than he put on the board in his previous nine.

This number is a little high I feel, and will recommend a free play wager on the "under".

Jack Zito

Dallas @ Portland
PICK: Portland +2

The Dallas Mavericks (32-26 SU, 29-29 ATS) head into Portland to battle the Trail Balzers (28-31 SU, 28-30-1 ATS) at the Rose Garden. Despite firing head coach Nate McMillan and cleaning house at the trade deadline, this Trail Blazers are still in the playoff hunt. While a lot needs to happen, just the fact that they have remaining life goes a long way. The home team will come out ready to play on national television.

I can sit and run through stat after stat, but the fact of the matter is this game isn't about numbers. It's almost impossible to get a mathematical read on a team with such a small sample size.

Instead, this game is about fading the public and taking advantage of the betting market. Being that this game is on ESPN it will be one of the most bet on games of the day. On top of that, Dallas will be the easy pick in the eyes of the public.

What the public fails to realize is change needed to be made in Portland. At the beginning of the season this was a team I thought had what it takes to reach the Western Conference Finals. To say this team underachieved would be an understatement. Starting fresh with a new head coach and lineup was necessary. Because this team had so much depth, the trade had little impact. In fact one could say the moves were a positive, as it opened up starting spots and more minutes for Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum.

Winning long-term is harder than just fading the public. You need to know when to fade the public. This is exactly when you want to do it, as everyone will be loading their money up on the Mavericks.

Dave Cokin

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox

Jake Peavy has a terrible injury history, so chances are he'll beak down again at some point. But right now Peavy is healthy and I liked his first start against Texas. Max Scherzer was horrible in his 2012 debut and I'll take my chances against him here. The White Sox are the choice.

Jim Feist

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks are 37-14 in their last 51 vs. a team with a losing record and 36-16 in their last 52 vs. the National League West. The defending division champs are playing well again, 10th in baseball in on-base percentage and slugging. Starter Daniel Hudson had a winning record with a 3.86 ERA on the road last season and in 26 career innings against Colorado has a 2.73 ERA. The Rockies are 8-20 in their last 28 vs. the National League West and 6-22 in their last 28 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Diamondbacks are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Colorado and 16-5 in the last 21 meetings. Play the Diamondbacks!

SPORTS WAGERS

FLORIDA +110 over New Jersey

The Devils are the popular pick, as the Panthers, outside of Florida, are a team that nobody pays much attention to. Of all the teams in the playoffs, this is the least mentioned team and it will also be the least watched series. The Devils had a very nice season and played much of it under the radar until late January when folks realized just how good they are and how many points they recorded. They also missed the playoffs last year and will be hungry. However, they have some serious problems that are being overlooked. On defense, they are adequate but that core of defensemen cannot help offensively and that’s a liability. We also have no faith in Martin Brodeur. He’ll get lucky in a game or two with some saves that hit his pads as he’s flopping around out of position but he’s not to be trusted as a netminder that can win a series or help his team win. If New Jersey wins this series it’ll be because they outplay the Panthers by a wide margin and we don’t see that happening. Florida is getting no credit. They would actually have finished the season with more points than a lot of teams, including New Jersey, had they not lost 18 OT games (11 by shootout). Last time we looked, there were no shootouts in the playoffs. As mentioned in our series write-ups, the Panthers have a huge edge on the blue-line and in goal. Offensively, the Devils have an edge but with goaltending being a big part of every series and with Florida having more offense than they’re getting credit for, we give the edge to the Panthers and will play them on their home ice taking back a tag in their first home playoff game in 12 years. Play: Florida +110 (Risking 2 units).

Philadelphia +174 over PITTSBURGH

Based on value alone, the Flyers are an absolute must play. Philadelphia will be playing with house money here, as they are already up a game and stole home ice advantage. The Flyers won’t be satisfied with that. They are fully aware of how important it is to go up 2-0 against the Greatest Show on Ice and they’ll bring a horde of momentum into this one after being written off for dead in the last game in which when they were trailing 3-0. Additionally, it’s not being talked about much but Sidney Crosby took a pretty good shot to the head in game 1 and this is a fragile superstar, who is probably a hit in the head or two away from hanging up his skates for a long time. It’s something to watch, not only because he’s an important player but because he could also be playing a little tentative knowing that one hit could put him out. The Penguins defense proved once again that they’re a liability. They have trouble moving the puck out and they can be pressured into making bad decisions. Anyway, what we have here is two top-tiered clubs fighting to advance. This series is so close that anything can happen from game to game. The difference is that the Flyers are taking back a ridiculously high price and offer up all the value. If the game were in Philly, the Flyers would be favored and in no way is home ice worth 2-1 or close to it. Overlay. Play: Philadelphia +174 (Risking 2 units).

Los Angeles +155 over VANCOUVER

Not sure if the odds makers watched game one or this line is based on the public’s thinking that the host cannot go down 0-2 in a “must win” game but just like in the Phi/Pit game, this line is simply out of whack. It’s hard to argue that Los Angeles wasn’t the better team in game one. They outhit, outplayed and outlasted the Canucks by a wide margin. The Kings sustained more pressure, they outshot them 39-26 and if not for the great goaltending of Roberto Luongo, the score would’ve been much worse. A lot has been made about the Kings taunting the Canucks on Twitter after the game. In case you missed it and it’s all over the internet, the Kings official Twitter account tweeted this, “To all of Canada outside of B.C., you’re welcome”. Sure, it might motivate the Canucks a little more but too much is being made of it, as the media continues to blow everything way out of proportion. The product on the ice sees the Kings in a great state of mind with a great game plan to beat this team. Vancouver is certainly feeling the pressure of losing last year, losing its best player and being down 1-0 in the series. We also love the fact that the Kings fell behind 1-0 early in game one and were not fazed one bit by their much maligned “lack of offense”. They played with swagger and created a slew of scoring chances. That aforementioned “must win” angle is probably the lamest angle of them all and holds zero weight. The Kings can go up 2-0 in this series and seeing what happened in game one and with a take-back of +155, it’s very easy to pull the trigger on them here. Play: Los Angeles +155 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

L.A. Angels +142 over N.Y. YANKEES

The Yankees open up their home portion of the schedule in front of a packed house but so what. Every game is packed and the opposition is usually more jacked up than the home side. Besides, this season, New York is more beatable than they’ve been in previous years with an older, slower and a less intimidating lineup. The Yanks opened the season by losing three straight to the Rays and followed that up by sweeping the Orioles to even their record at 3-3. What the Rays and Angels have in common that the Orioles do not is good pitching. Ervin Santana appeared to be on his way to becoming one of the game's elite pitchers after his stellar 2008 season. Elbow ligament problems derailed him in 2009 but he has rebounded to establish himself as a solid workhorse. While he has not yet fully reclaimed his elite 2008 skills, Santana recovered in 2011, while displaying at least one new skill, an emerging GB tendency, reversing his historical flyball orientation to record a higher GB% than FB% for the first time. Santana posted a strong BAA reliability rating. He seems on his way to becoming a different type of pitcher than in 2008 and those changes suggest there could be even more improvement to come. At the end of the 2011 season, there were some questions about the back-end of the Yankee’s rotation. One solution was the signing of free agent Hiroki Kuroda but we’re not so sure. Kuroda switches from the NL to the AL and from pitcher-friendly Chavez Ravine to hitter friendly Yankee Stadium. Yankee Stadium enhances runs by 8%, right-handed HR’s by 17%, left-handed jacks by a ghastly 43% and Kuroda does not have a high groundball tendency. While strong run support will provide him with plenty of chances to garner wins, his ERA is heading north and it’s also worth noting that the Rays got to him for eight hits and six runs in 5.2 frames. Overlay. Play: Los Angeles +142 (Risking 2 units).

Tampa Bay +109 over BOSTON

The Red Sox also open their home schedule in this matinee game and bring their 1-5 record with them. Last year’s collapse seems to have carried over into this season and until we see something different, this is a great fade team because like the Yankees, Boston is usually overpriced. Josh Beckett was slaughtered in his season debut when he surrendered five, count ‘em, five jacks to the Tigers. The Red Sox lost that game 10-0. While we don’t put a lot of weight on one start, we saw signs of a Beckett decline last year and it’s hard to ignore five home runs allowed. Beckett had a dramatic fly-ball % rise a year ago that saw his fly-ball ratio go from 34% in 2010 to 45% last year. That’s significant and it appears as though it was no aberration. David Price’s strikeout growth is supported by raw stuff. His “average” fastball now sits at 95 MPH. Outstanding command and skills against both right-handed and left-handed batters supports that he's more than a LH feaster. Trends say he's an ace with even more growth potential with projections being a 2.50 ERA with 250 K’s. Play: Tampa Bay +109 (Risking 2 units).

Detroit -109 over CHICAGO

The Tigers come in with a 5-1 record and their only loss came when they blew a 2-0 ninth inning lead against the Rays. They should be 6-0 and it’s no surprise, as they’re one of the favorites to win the World Series. The White Sox are one of the favorites to lose 100 games or more. Matt Scherzer was whacked in his opening day start in that bizarre 13-12 win over Boston. Jim Leyland said Scherzer started to battle a sinus infection over the weekend and it really affected him. It sounds as though Scherzer is feeling much better coming into this one. Scherzer went 2-2 with a 1.24 ERA and 27 strikeouts in four starts (29 innings) against Chicago last season. It seems like the ideal opponent for Scherzer to get back on track against. Jake Peavy has been on the DL in each of the last four years. He’s coming off a decent start in Texas in which he allowed three runs on eight hits in six innings in a very tough park but it was one start. Peavy went 7-7 with a 4.92 ERA in 112 IP with the South Side last season. His ERA and fly-ball ratio is trending ugly and even in that first game we saw a groundball rate of just 20%. The pitchers don’t always dictate the play. When we can spot less than a dime on the Tigers over the White Sox in a year in which one is projected to win 100 games while the other is projected to lose that many, we’ll gladly take our chances. Play: Detroit -109 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).

BPV (Base Performance Value)

This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors. In tandem with a pitcher's strand rate, it provides a complete picture of the elements that contribute to a pitcher's ERA, and therefore serves as an accurate tool to project likely changes in ERA. BENCHMARKS: A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.

EZWINNERS

Seattle Mariners -154

This is the third time in eight games that the A's and Mariners lineups will be seeing today's starting pitchers (Colon and Hernandez) and I think that gives Seattle a huge advantage. Colon is past his prime and I think even the offensively weak Seattle lineup will due some damage the third time around. Hernandez on the other hand has great stuff and being familiar with his stuff and being able to hit it is two different things. Play on Seattle.