Nelly
LA Angels + over NY Yankees
The Angels are just 2-4 after back-to-back one-run losses in Minnesota the last two days but the Yankees are a fortunate 3-3, winning in extra-innings each of the last two days. These teams have almost identical scoring numbers both for and against but the Angels have been the superior hitting team, batting .268 compared to .243 for New York. The Yankees have struggled against right-handed pitching with a .236 team average for the year. This is the home opener for New York so there will be some extra fanfare and distractions, but also a motivated Angels team that seeks to unseat New York and emerge on their own as one of the American League powers. The road team has won four of the last eight in this series although the Yankees have historically had a great home edge. Ervin Santana allowed six runs in his 2012 debut with two costly home runs but he has quietly emerged as one of the better right-handed pitchers in baseball the last few seasons. Santana is 52-37 the last four years and in three of those seasons his ERA was below 4.00. Santana has cut down on his walks significantly from his early career numbers and he is now a legitimate strikeout pitcher. On paper acquiring Hiroki Kuroda made a ton of sense for the Yankees but Kuroda leaves pitching friendly Dodger Stadium, where he always posted average numbers and moves to one of the best hitting parks in baseball and must face more potent offensive teams. Kuroda struggled with his command and was hit hard in the opener and he may not be up to the challenge of the home opener, facing overvaluation as well.
Eric Williams
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Detroit Pistons +5
The Bucks have lost two straight following their four-game SU winning streak while the Pistons picked up a convincing win over the lowly Bobcats on Thursday night. Not only that NBA roundball bettors, but the Home team in this series has gone 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings while the Bucks are just 1-4 ATS in the L/5 meetings in Detroit. Last but not least, things are looking good for Pistons betting backers with the Underdog going 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and Milwaukee compiling an unimpressive 2-5 ATS mark in the L/7 meetings overall. Play the Pistons to win and cash in while dealing the Bucks playoff hopes a serious blow!
SPORTS WAGERS
DETROIT +171 over Milwaukee
The Pistons have played just seven home games over their past 22 games. They’ve won six of those seven with only loss over that span occurring against the Miami heat. The Pistons have also won six of 10 with only losses over that stretch occurring all on the road against Chicago, Miami, Atlanta and Orlando. Detroit is without question, one of the most undervalued and under-appreciated team in the Association. The Pistons are healthy, they have a solid starting five and a great big man in the middle in Greg Munroe. The Bucks have won five of eight and are in a battle with Philadelphia and New York for that eighth and final playoff spot. However, their five recent wins came against Portland, Charlotte, Cleveland (twice) and Washington. They have an outstanding backcourt with Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis but when you consider recent form and strength of schedule, the Bucks are wrongly favored against this enthusiastic and very dangerous host. Play: Detroit +171 (Risking 2 units).
MATT RIVERS
As for your Friday night comp play, I will take the double-digits with the Cavaliers to cover once again versus the Pacers.
On Wednesday night I gave you a free play winner on Cleveland as they stayed inside of the number at home against Indiana, and I see no reason to jump ship now, as Indiana has been asked to cover some inflated numbers of late and have not been up to the task.
The Pacers have failed their last three when installed as the favorite, and eight of their last eleven overall when asked to cover an impost.
The Cavaliers come into this game having covered their last four games, and they have been tough on Indy, covering ALL three meetings this season - two of the games going overtime! - and four in a row overall versus the Pacers dating back to last season.
Take the Cavs to stay inside of the roomy impost again tonight.
2♦ CLEVELAND
SCOTT DELANEY
I am am telling you right now, Indiana coach Frank Vogel should get serious consideration for NBA Coach of the Year. Rivers has done an impressive job, as has Chicago's Tom Thibodeau, San Antonio's Gregg Popovich and Philadelphia's Doug Collins. But come on guys, the Bulls and the Spurs were the No. 1 seeds in last year's postseason, and Philly is fading fast. The Pacers, however, have emerged, and come into this one having won two straight and seven of 10.
Tonight the Pacers, winners of six of seven, will embark on a three-game spree against sub-.500 teams. And even though they've struggled against the Cavaliers a bit - they pulled out a 98-91 win in overtime at home Dec. 30 and lost 98-87 at Quicken Loans Arena on Feb. 15 - that's been a couple months now. Tonight we're going to see the Pacers show the improvement they've made under the watchful eye of Vogel, and just how good they've become.
And make note, the Feb. 15 loss was without George Hill and Danny Granger. Those are big hits, as Granger alone is averaging 27.4 points while playing in seven straight wins in the series.
Lay the home chalk in this one, as the Pacers roll.
3♦ INDIANA
CHUCK O'BRIEN
My free winner for Friday night is going to be on the Boston Celtics, laying the road chalk north of the border, in this clash in Toronto against the Raptors.
While the Chicago Bulls appear to be running away with the Eastern Conference, and the Miami Heat are struggling, the veteran-laden Celtics have won four straight and have taken over first place in the Atlantic Division. I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see coach Doc Rivers named coach of the year, as he has his troops playing the best basketball they've played all season.
Point guard Rajon Rondo has been on it of late, producing double-figure assists in each of his last 13 games and a triple-double in his last game. Add in the experience of Kevin Garnett and the hot shooting of Paul Pierce, I might be inclined to say the Celtics are the second-best team on the East right now - not the Heat.
Tonight they take on a struggling Raptors team that has lost four straight and is currently battling a slew of injuries. Toronto will likely be without leading scorer Andrea Bargnani once again, as he's missed the last two games with a calf strain. Linas Kleiza could very well be unavailable as well, as he's nursing a sore right knee
This game is important, as the Celtics are trying to not only win their fifth consecutive Atlantic Division title, but also overtake the Indiana Pacers for third in the East.
Boston comes in on ATS runs of 5-0 on the road, 8-1 off a straight-up win, 13-3 when playing on one day's rest and 10-1 overall. On the flipside, the Raptors are on ATS slides of 0-4 with just one night's rest and 1-4 in their last five overall.
Lay the road chalk, as Boston rolls.
2♦ BOSTON
JEFF BENTON
Your Friday freebie is the Boston Celtics as the road favorite at Toronto.
Not many teams have been as hot as Boston has down the stretch, and I am willing to lay this road chalk tonight against a Toronto team that has officially thrown in the towel as we wind down the regular campaign.
Toronto's losing streak stands at four in a row straight up, and they have failed in three of those four setbacks.
Boston comes into this one having won four in a row, and 11 of their last 14 games straight up, while going 10-2-2 against the spread in those 14 contests.
The Celtics did lose to the Raptors by a basket back in February at the Air Canada Center, but don't look for a repeat, as Boston had won the previous five series meetings while going 4-0-1 against the spread in those previous five victories.
The favorite in this series is 8-2-1 the last eleven meetings, and the C's have copped eight of the last ten versus the number their last ten trips north of the border.
Lay it with Boston.
3♦ BOSTON
Your Friday freebie is the Los Angeles Dodgers with Aaron Harang as they start their weekend set with the San Diego Padres and Clayton Richard.
This will be San Diego's first road game, and they come into Chavez Ravine saddled with a 2-5 start on their just completed seven game home stand.
The Dodgers have been riding high to start the season, off to a 6-1 start, and thus far a perfect 3-0 start at Dodgers Stadium.
Look for Los Angeles to improve on those numbers as Richard and Harang meet for the second time this year, Richard and the Padres got the better of Harang and the Dodgers last Sunday at Petco Park, but the Dodgers are 13-3 the last 16 times they have faced their division-rival, so I expect a turnaround in tonight's contest.
The Padres are just 4-13 their last 17 road games, while the Dodgers are 17-5 their last 22 home games.
Go with L.A. to open the weekend with the victory.
2♦ L.A. DODGERS
MLB Predictions
Tigers / White Sox Over 8.5
The Tigers head into Chicago for their first divisional game of the season as they look to improve on their solid 5-1 start to the season. The White Sox had a successful 3-2 start to the season on the road and look to win their home opener tonight to keep up with the Tigers. Detroit will send Max Scherzer to the mound who looks to rebound from his rough start to the season. In his first start against the Red Sox Scherzer allowed 8 hits and 7 earned runs in just 2.2 innings of work. Scherzer had a 5.23 ERA on the road in 2011 compared to his 3.80 ERA at home. On the road he had a higher WHIP at 1.42 and .279 opponents batting average. Chicago's starter Jake Peavy went 6 innings giving up 8 hits and 3 earned runs in his first start of the season in Texas. Peavy was 7-7 last season with a 4.92 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .268 opponents batting average. Most of the time we see pitchers more comfortable at home, but that wasn't the case with Peavy last season. Peavy went 3-6 at home last year with a high 6.11 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and .284 opponents batting average. Cabrera hit .388 against the White Sox last year, which included 6 homeruns and 18 RBIs. With Fielder hitting behind him in the lineup he is just that much more dangerous. The Tigers are averaging 6.67 runs per game so far this season, and they have 5 of their key players hitting over .300 on the year. The White Sox got their bats going against Cleveland on Wednesday with a 10-6 win, and look to rough up Scherzer in their home opener. Take note that the OVER is 5-1-1 in Scherzer's last 7 starts overall, 4-1 in his last 5 starts vs divisional opponents, and 3-1-1 in his last 5 road starts. The OVER is 21-7-1 in the White Sox last 29 divisional games, and 9-3 in their last 12 following a game where they scored 5+ runs. The OVER is 10-4-1 in Peavy's last 15 vs a team with a winning record, 4-1-1 in his last 6 home starts, and 9-3-1 in his last 13 starts as an underdog. Also take note that the OVER is 18-7-1 in these two teams last 26 meetings and 9-3-1 in their last 13 meetings in Chicago. The bats should be going tonight and we have a generous price on a 8.5 run total - take the OVER.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
KANSAS CITY -122 over Cleveland: Emotion is a big part of sports and these Royals are jacked up for their home opener. They have been talking about it all through preseason and their road trip. The fans will be jacked as well as they know they finally have a team that may do some damage this year. Derek Lowe had a fine outing in his opener as he pitched 7 scoreless innings vs Toronto, but this is still the same aging Derek Lowe that went 9-17 with a 5.05 ERA last year for the Braves and he is 4-4 (team starts) with a 4.92 ERA in 8 starts vs the Royals. Luke Hochevar is not aging and yes he has struggled vs the Tribe (4-7, 5.21 ERA), but he is still the better pitcher in this one and he looks like he is ready to be the ace of this staff. Luke also had a fin showing in his opener, allowing 2 ER on 5 hits in 6.1 innings of work, in a win at LA. The Royals had a rough showing in Oakland after a very good showing in LA, but they are back home where the crowd will be rocking at that should have both Luke and their offense pumped for this one. Look for this improved royals team to show their mfans what all the excitement is about surrounding this team.
PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (+130) over NY Mets: (Added) How important is David Wright to the Mets? Well they are 4-0 with him and 0-2 without him and in the two losses they lost by 4 runs in each game and he may be missing for tonight's game as well. Now they take on a Philadelphia squad that is starting to figure things out. The Phils offense is coming alive as they have banged out 18 hits and have put 10 runs on the board in ntheir last 2 games, compared to scoring just 8 total runs in their first 4 games. Making it even tougher for the Mets is the fact that they will be facing Cliff Lee, who is 2-0 with an 0.43 ERA in 3 starts vs them, and in both wins the Phils outscored them by 4 and 10 runs. Cliff also likes to pitch at the Bank as he is 14-5 with an ERA of 2.06 in 23 starts here. Last year the Phils were 13-5 in his home starts and of the 12 wins, 10 were by 2 or more runs and they did give him good run support in his home wins, scoring 6.2 rpg in those wins and they should get him some good runs tonight vs R.A. Dickey. Dickey is 1-3 with a 3.09 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Phils, but in 2 trips here he is 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA. The Mets have scored just 2 runs in their last 2 games with out Wright and the way that Lee pitches vs them and in this park they won't get more than 2 runs here, while the Phils should be good for around 5 runs vs Dickey, who has struggled in this park. Phils by 3+ here.
2 UNIT PLAYS
LA Angels/ NY Yanks Over 9.5: In looking at the way both starters did in their opening games and the way both offenses have been coming alive, it looks way too easy that this game will hit DD in runs, but sometimes i have been burned by the way too obvious so I will make this a lesser play and not a top play. The Angels bats seem to have waken up a bit as they put up 19 runs in Minnesota, which is more of a pitchers park than a hitters park and today they play in hitter friendly NY, vs Hiroki Kuroda, who allowed 8 hits, 4 walks and 4ER in just 5.2 innings of work in his opening start. Ervin Santana had a rough start in his opener, allowing 5 ER on 7 nhits and 2 walks in 5.2 innings of work and will be taking on a Yanks squad that has scored 5 or more runs in 5 of their 6 games, with all of those games on the road and now they will be at home where they scored 5.77 rpg and hit .273 last year. Both teams have plenty of offense for this one, while the pitching may be below average at best here. 10 runs should be attainable.
ST LOUIS -1.5 (+115) over Chicago: (Added) Jeff Samardzija had a fine showing in his opener, but let's face it, the Washington offense is nothing like he will face today. Jeff has 2 starts in his career vs the Cards and he allowed 0 ER in 5.2 innings of work in the first meeting, but 8 ER in 4.1 innings of work in the 2nd one. Today he will meet a Cards team that is out to prove that they really don't miss Albert as they have hit .296 and have scored 5.29 rpg in the early going. All those games have been on the road so far and now they come home where they hit pretty well. Adam Wainright had a tough go in his opener, but he is 3-1 with a 2.75 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Cubs, while the Cards are 8-2 in his last 10 starts vs them, with 7 of the 8 wins coming by 2 runs or more. The Cubs have shown some offense so far, but all of their games have been at home and last year they were able to score just 3.1 rpg in this park. The Cubs had a game yesterday and must travel, while the Cards had off. Too many edges in this one for the Cards as they win by 3 or more.
More Later
Tony George
Houston Rockets -4
Like them against the Suns in this spot at home tonight. Suns on a long road trip and I like going against teams at the end of long raodies. Speaking of roadies, The Rockets just went 4-0 SU on the road and including a huge win over Da Bulls, and I look for them to bounce back after a home loss to Utah in their game here tonight. Homecourt helps here big time. Houston is 20-9 at this year. They are also avenging a loss to the Suns.
WUNDERDOG
Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees
Pick: Los Angeles Angels +145
The Los Angeles Angles signed Albert Pujols to a long-term deal, which basically makes their solid pitching stronger by lengthening their lineup. The Yankees are hoping to get a good year out of Hiroki Kuroda, but at the age of 37 he might not have much left. He was hit hard in his Pinstripes debut, after closing last year with the Dodgers going 2-3 in his last five starts. The Angels have gotten huge outings from Santana when he opens a series where they are 27-8 in their last 35. The Bombers have been a disappointing 3-9 after a day off in their last 12, and a team that used to kill right-hand pitching is just 3-8 against them in their last 11. Play on LA.