Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday April, 20

Marc Lawrence

Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Golden State Warriors

When the Warriors take on the Mavericks Friday night in Dallas, Golden State will take the court knowing they are 28-13-1 ATS of late in this series, including 20-8 ATS when taking more than eight points. With the defending champs looking dead ahead to a bigger showdown tomorrow night against the Bulls in Chicago, look for Dallas to continue to play down to the level of opposition this season as they fall to 9-17 ATS in games against .485 or less foes tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Golden State.

Sam Martin

New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: New York Knicks

We know the Knicks have clinched a playoff spot already, but while the Knicks don't much to play for here (other than seeding positioning), they take on a Cleveland team that has been practically tanking for the last few weeks. The Cavs have lost 15 of their last 18 games overall, including three consecutive blowout losses by a combined 71 points. No reason to think Cleveland will suddenly turn things around, and even a disinterested New York squad can win this game handily.

Matt Fargo

Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee has been up and down to start the season as it opened 4-2 then lost four straight before winning two out of three against the Dodgers in its most recent series. The Brewers are a game under .500 and trail the Cardinals in the National League Central by three games. They still have six games left on this current homestand and after Colorado, Houston comes to visit so a very good finish is more than possible. Milwaukee is 20-6 in its last 26 series openers. The Rockies ended up with a 5-4 homestand after winning the final two series against Arizona and San Diego, taking two games in each. This is just the second road series for Colorado which dropped its opening series in Houston by losing two of three. The starting pitching has been the big concern thus far as the Rockies have posted a 5.83 ERA from their rotation. They are 2-9 in their last 11 series openers and 17-39 in their last 56 games as a road underdog between +110 and +150. Shawn Marcum went from hero to goat in Milwaukee in matter of two months. Through 29 starts last season, he had a 3.11 ERA and was coasting the Brewers into the playoffs and then the wheels fell off. In his final four regular season starts and his three playoff starts, he posted a whopping 11.91 ERA with only one quality start over that stretch. Fast forward to 2012 and he has seemed to have gotten over it as he has two quality outings to open the season and now comes his home season debut. Colorado has not gotten the same early season success from Jhoulys Chacin. In his first start against the Giants, he gave up five walks, four hits and four runs in four innings so it was a very uneven performance. He was pitching better in his second start against Arizona as he had allowed one run over four innings before a rain delay cut his outing short. He has had a decent run in Colorado but certainly nothing spectacular and in his only career start against the Brewers last season, he allowed five runs in 6.1 innings.

Rob Vinciletti

Lakers vs. Spurs
Play: Under 202.5

The Lakers have stayed under in 9 of 11 vs teams who average 99 or more points per game and 3 of 4 times this season when playing with home loss revenge. In the series 5 of the last 5 have played under in San Antonio. For system purposes we note that home favorites of -5 or more with 1 day of rest have played under 14 of 17 times if that scored 120 or more as a road favorite, while shooting 50% or better from the field, vs an opponent that played on the road in their last game. Look for this one to go under the total here tonight.

Sean Murphy

Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers

It's not easy to go against the Rangers these days; after all, they've won seven games in a row, and are coming off a 10-3 beatdown of the Tigers in the opener of this series last night.

However, that's precisely what we're going to do on Friday, as I fully expect Detroit to respond favorably following that ugly loss.

It's a long season, and the Rangers will most certainly lose their share of games. We've already seen them suffer losses at the hands of the White Sox and Mariners (not exactly elite clubs), so it's not as if the Tigers are facing an insurmountable task here. Keep in mind, Detroit remains a solid 5-2 at home this season, and sits only two games behind the Rangers in the A.L. standings.

I'm expecting some regression from Rangers starter Matt Harrison tonight. Through two starts, he's posted a sparkling 0.64 ERA, but it's not as if he's been positively dominant, allowing 11 hits while posting a medicore 7:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 14 innings of work. It's also worth noting that his two starts have come against the White Sox and Twins, so he's definitely taking a step up in class tonight.

Harrison faced the Tigers three times last season, allowing 20 hits and nine earned runs in only 15 innings pitched. The Tigers won two of those three games - in fact, they've gone 5-1 in six games against Harrison all-time.

Rick Porcello will counter for Detroit. Much like Harrison, he's enjoyed plenty of success through two starts this season, recording a 1.84 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. The difference is, Porcello has actually looked dominant at times, posting eight strikeouts compared to only one walk. Unlike Harrison, he's already faced an elite team, holding down the Rays in a 5-2 win on April 10th.

The Tigers split Porcello's two starts against the Rangers last season, but he pitched well, giving up only three earned runs while striking out eight and walking one in 12 2/3 innings pitched.

Detroit's bullpen does worry me against this potent Rangers offense, but my thinking is that the Tigers will build enough of a lead that it won't matter much in the latter innings. That's always the plan, right?

Dave Cokin

Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners
Pick: Chicago White Sox

Hector Noesi was lights out for the Mariners in his most recent start, but I'm not sold he's more than a back of the rotation type who will occasionally show a flash of brilliance. I'm much higher on Chris Sale, a star in the making for the White Sox. I'm taking the Chisox to get this one.

Jim Feist

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs
Pick: Chicago Cubs

Cincinnati is not getting it done, especially on the road, in their poor start. Starter Homer Bailey is walking too many batters (7 in 11 innings), combined with 13 hits that's 20 base runners in 11+ innings. That's why he's 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA. And you can't walk batters in a small park like Wrigley Field. Lifetime he has a 6.75 ERA against the Cubs in 32 innings, walking 19 while allowing 41 hits. Chicago goes with newcomer Chris Volstad, who has walked 2 in 11 innings and fanned 10. The Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. Play the Cubs.

EZWINNERS

Toronto Blue Jays -108

The Royals starting pitcher Luke Hochevar missed his regular start in the rotation after getting hit in the left ankle with a line drive in his last start. Hochevar has not thrown the ball well and has an ERA of 7.84 so far this season. I expect the Blue Jays to put some runs on the board against the struggling Hochevar and it should take many runs for Toronto to pick up the win if their starting pitcher Kyle Drabek continues to throw the ball well. So far this season, Drabek is 2-0 with an ERA of just 1.42. The Royals are just 2-8 in Hockevar's last ten starts during the first game of a series, while the Jays are a stellar 5-0 when Drabek opens a series. Play on Toronto.

JR O'Donnell

Detroit Tigers -110

We have two good pitchers and teams that can score runs big time. Rangers are 10-2, 5-0 on the road, a +39 in runs scored and are riding a "6" game win streak. Tigers are 9-3, 5-1 at home, +18 in runs scored and 7-1 as a favorite. The Texas Rangers send out lefty Matt Harrison (2-0, .64 ERA & 1.07 WHIP), and his mound opponent Rick Porcello is 1-0, 1.84 ERA with a .89 WHIP. Both pitchers hold the opposition to a batting average of .226 or lower. #'s punch in heavy @ Detroit is 6-0 against lefties, and average 6.7 r/g at home.

Tony George

Lakers / Spurs Over 202.5

Kobe Bryant returns tonight for LA so expect some fireworks and added scoring for LA who is avenging a home loss where the Spurs throttled them and had 112 points 3 days ago. In the Lakers last 29 games against Western Conference teams they have went Over in 21 of those games. The Spurs are not the defense juggernaut as they have been in years past and currently are averaging 104 ppg their last 5 games. The suit up everyone again tonight for this rematch and you can expect a high scoring affair here. I have this power rated at 209, that is a 6.5 point overlay against the line. San Antonio is hitting 51% from the floor overall and 41% from 3 point range in their last 5 games. Although the Under trends for these 2 clearly favor that proposition, it is what is going on right here, right now and this one should go over the total with ease.

Toronto Blue Jays -108

Not backing my hometown team who flat out sucks and will have serious issues on offense, facing Drabek tonight who is sporting a 2-0 record with an overall ERA of 1.42. Kansas City cannot get out of their own way right now and with Hochaver on the hill for KC the Jays might just do what everyone else has done, light him up with his over 7 ERA. In his last start at home a week ago he gave up 7 earned runs in the top of the first inning against Cleveland of all people. Forget about it, Jays roll and KC loses their 7th straight tonight at home.

SPORTS WAGERS

Miami +104 over WASHINGTON

After a tough start to open the year, the Marlins are off and running with four wins in a row and five wins in six games. During its four game streak, Miami has outscored the opposition 24-10 while batting a combined .307. That’s with Jose Reyes still batting just .226 and when he gets going at the top of the lineup, the Fish instantly become much more potent. Carlos Zambrano pitches his best at this park. Zambrano has won all four of his starts in Washington with a 0.69 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 26 innings. Overall, he's won six of his last seven starts versus the Nationals behind a 2.84 ERA. Ross Detwiler has never lived up to expectations. He posted outstanding minor league numbers but has never been able to bring that success to the majors. He’s beginning to look like another failed prospect but there is a glimmer of hope after two decent starts to the season. It’s going to take a lot more than that to back him as the chalk against a talented Marlins club that is heating up. Play: Miami +104 (Risking 2 units).

Texas +101 over DETROIT

The Rangers look unstoppable with some sick numbers right across the board. To beat this intruder you have to score at least five runs or more because scoring five for them is like scoring one for most other teams. Texas is 6-0 on the road. Overall, they’ve won seven in a row. Over that span they’re batting .367. Over their past five games they’ve hit 11 jacks, scored 44 runs and have walked 22 times. They came in here last night and whacked the Tigers 10-3. That was a flattering score to Detroit, as the Rangers had seven hits and two walks in the first two innings and scored twice. Current Rangers batters have hit .372 over Tigers starter today, Rick Porcello. Meanwhile, Matt Harrison has raced out to a 2-0 record with a glistening 0.64 ERA. He has yielded just one run over 14 innings pitched while recording seven strikeouts and establishing himself as another solid starter in the Texas rotation. It makes a huge difference on the mound for pitchers knowing that if they allow runs the offense will get them back in a hurry. This is a Rangers club with no easy outs in the lineup and they’re playing like they know they’re going to win. Play: Texas +101 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

Detroit +105 over NASHVILLE

What a great round one of the NHL playoffs. It’s entertainment at its highest level with every series having plots, storylines and bizarre occurrences. This series has seen the dominant team lose every game. The Predators are up 3-1 and the only game in which they outplayed the Wings was the game they lost. Detroit outshot Nashville 37-26 in game 1, 43-22 in game 3 and 41-17 in game 4 and they’re down 3-1 in the series. As we saw with Los Angeles and Philadelphia, the close-out game is the toughest to win and when we apply Detroit’s dominance over Nashville in this series, the smart play is to take the small offering. With a wager on Nashville to win the series, we’re essentially free-rolling on this game and that’s a nice position to be in. The Red Wings have seen every scenario over the years and know how to prepare to avoid elimination. They were down 0-3 to San Jose just a year ago before forcing a game seven. Nashville has just one series win in their history and all the pressure is on them to close it out. Play: Detroit +105 (Risking 2 units).

Philadelphia +165 over PITTSBURGH

No crystal ball in the world could predict which one of these goalies, if any, is going to fall flat on their face tonight. But here’s what we do know. The Flyers are too dangerous to be getting a take-back like this against a team they thrive against in a venue they thrive in. They’ve won four of their past five visits here including the first two games of this series. The Penguins responded with a big effort in the last game in Philly and as a result of that 10-goal outburst, they’re grossly overvalued here. Of course the Penguins can win here. They still have one of the most potent attacks in the league but the defense is still a mess, allowing far too many scoring chances to warrant this tag. Play: Philadelphia +165 (Risking 2 units).

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

LA ANGELS -137 over Baltimore: Glad I grabbed this one last night as it is now at -145. The Halos have really struggled out the gate and with all the money they put out in the offseason, this shouldn't be happening. They are off a home series loss to the A's and now get a chance at getting back on track vs the surprising Baltimore Orioles. The Angles offense has been struggling and it really shouldnt be as this team has plenty of good hitters on, but if their is one pitcher in baseball that I would like to face if Im in a slump, its Brian Matusz. This guy is just horrible. Since the start of last year he is now 1-11 with a 10.31 ERA, including an 0-2 mark with an 8.38 ERA in 2 starts this year. He has now lost his last 11 decisions in a row and he has an 11.48 ERA in those 11 losses. Want more? Ok, he is 0-6 in his last 8 road starts, with a 9.60 ERA and 4-15 with a 5.76 ERA in the first half of the season in his career, plsu he is 1-2 with a 5.74 ERA in 3 starts vs the Halos, including 0-1 with an 11.25 ERA in 1 start here. Ouch. This guy is bad and I marvel at how he still has a job. Last night Albert had 3 doubles and he is starting to get his swing. He may get his first HR in an Angels uniform tonight vs this guy. Jerome Williams struggled in his opener, but he will get that ship righted. Jerome did go 4-0 with a 3.68 ERA last year and he is 2-0 with a 2.51 ERA in 2 career starts vs the O's. The O's are hot, but the Halos are desperate for a win here and should tee of on Brian tonight and stop their 3 game slide.

Philadelphia -126 over SAN DIEGO: Glad I grabbed this one last night as well as the line is over -130 now. As No Limit said "It'll be hard to get Cole Hamels at this price again" I have been playing more Phils games this year and it's partly due to the lower lines they have had than in the last few years. Cole Hamels would be an ace on most other teams, but with Lee and Halladay on the same team he is their 3rd best. Nice to have a pitcher with his stuff as 3rd best. Cole has a 1-1 mark with a 3.65 ERA, while he is 6-2 with a 2.28 ERA in 11 starts vs the Padres, including a 3-1 mark with a 1.23 ERA in 5 starts at Petco. The Padres have never hit will at home and this year is no exception. The Padres have hit a paultry .173 and have scored just 2.62 rpg in their home park this year. Not the kind of numbers you want to have when facing a Philly staff that has allowed just 1 run in their last 23.33 innings. The Phils offense hasn't been that great as they have hit just .198 and have scored 2.14 rpg on the road this year, but they are facing Edison Volquez, who is 0-3 in his teams starts with a 4.24 ERA. Yes he is 2-0 with an 0.73 ERA vs the Phils, but he hasn't faced them since 2008 and the Phils offense is still a bit better than the Padres, so they should do well vs Volquez in this one, while the Padres offense will struggle vs Hamels. Look for Philly to get back to .500 here.

NY Yanks/ Boston Over 10: (Added) Ivan Nova is 14-0 in his last 18 starts, but two of those ND were vs Boston, in which he allowed 8 ER in just 10.67 innings of work in the two starts. Overall Ivan has faced the Sox 3 times and he has a 7.04 ERA in those starts, with all 3 games hitting at least 10 runs.That should help jump start this Boston offense that has struggled of late. Boston will need their offense to get going as the Pitching has been horrible. Boston is last in the league in ERA (6.20) and 29th inj WHIP (1.53). Clay Buchholz is 1-0 on the year but with a 9.82 ERA, and his two starts have averaged 21.5 rpg so far. WOW!!! Clay also has a 4.97 ERA in his last 5 meetings with yanks and he will be facing a team that is 5th in runs scored (5.31 rpg) and 3rd in hitting (.276). Yankee starters have a 5.29 ERA on the road, while Boston's home ERA is 6.00 and their home games have averaged 12.2 rpg. I see this one hitting at least that much as the offenses should put on a good show for Boston's 100 year celebration of Fenway.

More Later

David Banks

San Antonio Spurs -6

The Los Angeles Lakers (40-23, 27-36 ATS) did not meet the current top seeds in the Western Conference, the San Antonio Spurs (45-16, 38-20-3 ATS), this season until April 11th, but the teams now face each other for the third time in nine days on Friday night at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, TX at 9:30 ET on ESPN. The teams exchanged double-digit road wins in the first two meetings and each club won its last game on the road Wednesday night to maintain its position in the standings.

The Spurs gave Tim Duncan the night off and limited the minutes of Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker on Wednesday, but it did not matter as they still routed the Sacramento Kings 127-102, improving their NBA-best record against the spread to 38-20-3. San Antonio maintained a one-half game lead over the Oklahoma City Thunder, which also won on the road Wednesday at Phoenix, for the top seed in the West, although you may not know that based on how little media hype the Spurs have been getting this year in relation to the Thunder and the top teams in the East. The Spurs rank third in the NBA in scoring, second in field goal percentage and first in three-point shooting, and they are outscoring their opposition by an amazing average of 114.2-96.0 during their current five-game winning streak. Duncan is expected to be back for this game, but there is no telling what Coach Gregg Popovich will do with Parker and Ginobili as of yet. All three played in the 112-91 Spurs' win over the Lakers at Los Angeles on Tuesday and they combined to score 63 points as Parker led the way with 29.

The Lakers played without Kobe Bryant for the seventh straight game on Wednesday, but luckily they had basically a bye vs. an injury riddled Golden State Warriors team that started four rookies. The Lakers won 99-87 as seven-point road favorites, marking the third straight time that they have covered as favorites following a streak where they went 0-12 against the spread in that role. Bryant is expected to return before the end of the regular season, but whether or not this is the game where he makes his return is questionable. To its credit, Los Angeles has gone 5-2 straight up and 4-3 against the spread in Bryant's absence as Andrew Bynum has elevated his play. Bynum had 16 points and a spectacular 30 rebounds when the Lakers upset the Spurs in San Antonio in the first meeting, and he is coming off of a 31-point effort vs. the Warriors on Wednesday. With that win, the Lakers held on to their half-game lead over the Los Angeles Clippers in the Pacific Division, with those two teams currently seeded third and fourth in the West. The Clippers play at Phoenix on Thursday, so the Lakers will either be tied atop the division or have a one-game lead heading into this contest.

While the game between these teams in LA on Tuesday went 'over', that has been a rare occurrence in this head-to-head series as the 'under' is still a lucrative 20-7 in the last 27 meetings. The first contest here in San Antonio did stay safely 'under', extending the 'under' streak to 5-0 in the last five encounters in the Lone Star State.