JEFF BENTON
Your Friday freebie is the Thunder over the Kings in Sacramento tonight.
Oklahoma City still locked in a dog-fight with San Antonio for the top-spot in the Western Conference, so expect the Thunder to show the Kings no mercy in this one.
The Kings have thrown in the towel, as Sacto comes into this home date with straight up losses in eight of their last nine games, and they have failed ALL nine with the points.
Not much changes tonight when the Thunder come calling, as Oklahoma City has won five of their last seven straight up, and they have gone a dominant 8-2 straight up the last ten times they have faced the Kings. Against the spread the Thunder is on a 5-2 run the past seven meetings with Sacramento.
Too much at stake for the Thunder for me to think they will have a mental lapse this late in the season and with a Sunday game in Los Angeles against the Lakers on-deck, look for Oklahoma City to fine-tune their game tonight versus the going-nowhere Kings.
Double-digit romp in order tonight in Sacramento.
4♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Matt Rivers
Friday night comp play comes in basketball as I look for Kobe Bryant to come back to the lineup for Mike Brown after a seven game absence and keep the Lakers competitive against a San Antonio team that blasted them earlier this week.
With Kobe in street clothes, the Spurs routed the Lakers 112-91 on Tuesday night to end a three game straight up and against the spread slide to the Lakers.
San Antonio may well win again tonight, but I don't think they will cover. The Lakers need to step up and show some pride after that 21-point pasting they absorbed, and while I expect Kobe to be a little rusty after missing the past seven games, Los Angeles is still trying to secure the #3 seed in the West standings.
The Spurs are still are in line for the overall #1 seed in both the West, and possibly all of the NBA, but there is too much wiggle-room with this impost for me to 100% say San Antonio is going to cover this contest.
Mark me down for a play on the underdog Lakers tonight.
2♦ L.A, LAKERS
Dom Chambers
For my free selection, let’s take a look at the over in the Dallas Mavericks-Golden State Warriors game.
The season is over for the Warriors and they are playing like it.
Golden State, in their last five games are giving up an average of 112.2 points a game, while scoring 100.6 points.
They are not playing any defense right now.
On the flip side, the Mavericks have turned up the heat in scoring, averaging 111 points a game in their last give games, while giving up 108.4 points.
It may be tough for the Mavs to cover the 12 ½ spread, but both teams should score and top the 200-point mark.
They have two previous meetings this season, with both games going over the total.
Take the over.
2♦ WARRIORS-MAVS OVER
MLB Predictions
Orioles / Angels Over 9
Brian Matusz will go for the Orioles looking for his first win of the season. Matusz is 0-2 with a start at home and a start in Toronto. He has a 8.38 ERA after pitching 9.2 innings allowing 13 hits and 9 earned runs. His WHIP is sitting at 2.17 and his opponents bating average is a high .342. Lifetime against the Angels Matusz is 1-2 with a 5.74 ERA. Jerome Williams will take the mound for the Angels and he has had his struggles as well. Williams has had just one start but went just 2.2 innings against the Yankees allowing 5 hits and 5 earned runs while walking 3 and striking out just 1. In 2011 he spent some time with the Angels and had a decent 3.68 ERA despite a 1.36 WHIP and .269 opponents batting average. Before that his last time in the majors was in 2007 with Washington where he had an 0-5 record and 7.20 ERA. Take note that the Orioles are scoring 4.54 runs per game and allowing 4.38 against, but those numbers are higher at 4.86 and 5.00 on the road. The Angels, despite some recent struggles at the plate, are averaging 4.08 runs per game and allowing 4.77 against. The OVER is 37-16-5 in the Orioles last 58 road games, and 6-1-1 in their last 8 games overall. The OVER is 5-1 in Matusz' last 6 starts overall, and 4-0 in his last 4 road starts. The OVER is also 5-2 in these two teams last 7 meetings. Tonight we have two pitchers who aren't very good and who are struggling to start the season vs two pretty solid line ups. I'll take the OVER 9.
WUNDERDOG
San Francisco at New York Mets
Pick: San Francisco +125
These teams have done an expected reversal. The Giants have gotten off to a sluggish start, but have now answered the bell by going 5-2 in their last seven, out-pitching Philly for two straight wins to close that series. After a 4-0 start the Mets have cooled off as expected to go 3-5 over their last eight games. They have allowed a staggering 8 runs per game over their last four, so the pen is shot coming into this one. The Mets' struggles vs. left-hand pitching continue with a 5-11 mark in their last 16 against them, and overall they have dropped six straight in the role of a favorite. The Giants were built on pitching and have carried that momentum to a 9-2 mark in a game following one in which they allowed 2 runs or less. The Giants have taken control of this series at 8-3 in their last 11 vs. the Mets. Play on San Francisco.
Ross Benjamin
Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Golden State Warriors +12½
Golden St. is a perfect 12-0 ATS this season on the road following 2 losses in a row. Dallas has given up an average of 108.4 ppg. over their last 5 that hardly equates to being a good bet to cover a huge number. Any road underdog off 2 straight losses by 10 points or more in each game, versus an opponent who comes off 2 straight games where a combined 215 points or more was scored in each is 42-13 ATS (76.4%) since 1996. Play on Golden St. plus the points.
Joseph D'Amico
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Charlotte Bobcats
Play: Memphis Grizzlies -13½
Charlotte has hit rock-bottom, losing 18 straight. The Bobcat's are last in the NBA in scoring with a dismal 87.2 PPG and last in FG% at 41.4 from the field. They have failed to cover 8 in a row, including both as a DD 'dog. With most of the team sitting, I don't expect much effort here. Memphis is back in the post-season for the second straight year. The Grizzlies are fighting it out with the Clippers for home court in the playoffs. The team possesses six players averaging DDs with Rudy Gay's 19.1 PPG leading the way. Gay, Randolph, and Speights (23.5 RPG combined) will own the paint here. This team is hot, winning 10 of their L13 games SU. The WANT that home court edge in the playoffs. Take Memphis.
Jack Jones
Celtics/Hawks Under 178½
The Boston Celtics and Atlanta Hawks will play part in a defensive battle tonight. These are two of the best defensive teams in the league as the Celtics give up 89.8 points/game, while the Hawks yield 92.8 points/game.
The biggest reason I'm siding with the UNDER is the fact that Boston is going to be without 75% of its scoring. The Celtics have already clinched the No. 4 seed in the East, so they really have nothing to play for right now.
Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce are missing this game due to rest. Meanwhile, Rajon Rondo (back), Ray Allen (ankle) and Mickael Pietrus (knee) are all out due to injury. These five players combine to average 68.8 points, which is 75% of what Boston averages as a team (92.1).
Boston will have a hard time scoring the ball tonight, but most of their bench players are all pretty good defenders, which will make points hard to come by for Atlanta as well. The UNDER is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings in this series with combined scores of 171, 155 and 174 points. That 174-point effort came in overtime as well.
Ross King
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals
Tonight this matchup is a perfect example where you can take all the current stats and just put them in the garbage as you have two pitchers one who is on fire which is Drabek in Toronto and the other who is throwing beach balls which is Hochevar.Tonight Kanas City who is the only winless team at home after losing the first 6.Despite Drabek pitching lights out and Hochevar getting hit hard let us remember Hochevar is 2-0 versus these Bluejays at home.While the betting public continues to struggle when moving the line in a Bluejay game.Let us know that this just might be the best spot for the Royals to get that first home win as the Bluejays always after all the hype every year just like the Royals come back to reality once the season begins and so will Drabek.
Larry Ness
Dallas Mavericks -13
The Dallas Mavericks, last year's champs, still need one more victory to clinch a playoff berth. A home matchup with the injury-depleted Golden State Warriors appears to be 'just what the doctor ordered. The Mavericks (35-28) snapped a two-game skid with a 117-110 win over Houston on Wednesday, moving them into sixth place in the Western Conference, ahead of Denver. It's odd that Dallas has a game tomorrow at Chicago and then doesn't play again until the final night of the regular season, next Thursday in Atlanta. A win here would leave Dallas at 36-28 and Denver at 34-28 (Nuggets still have FOUR games left). The Warriors have been without Stephen Curry (14.7-3.4-5.3) since he sprained his right ankle March 11 and David Lee (20.1-9.6) has been shut down for the season with a strained groin since scoring 30 points in Dallas' 112-103 win over the Warriors, a week ago Thursday. Golden State has dropped SIX straight and 18 of its last 22. "Some would perceive these to be dark days," coach Mark Jackson said. "I believe these are times to build character and hold on to the rope even tighter." Dallas is just 2-8 ATS its last 10 facing teams that are out of the playoff picture and that's why this isn't a bigger play. However, laying the points with the Mavs, is worth a small wager.
John Ryan
Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings
Prediction: Sacramento Kings
5* graded play on the Sacramento Kings as they take on the Oklahoma City Thunder in Western Conference action set to start at 10:00 PM ET. This is always a tough call when you are playing arguably the worst team in the Western Conference and certainly a team with the worst defense in the NBA. However, the Thunder are just 5-5 and just 4-6 against the spread over their last 10 games and have dropped to second place in the conference standings trailing the San Antonio Spurs by ? game.
The Kings have had another poor season, but do play far better in home games posting a 15-16 record. They have been horrible on the road going just 5-26 on the season. They have lost an astounding nine straight games to the spread. However, this ?throw in the towel? type of play is more than factored into this juicy spread. The public has played against teams like the Kings and Charlotte almost blindly believing that they will never cover another spread. They might be right regarding Charlotte, but the Kings are a team that I expect will show up and play hard in this home tilt against an elite Thunder team.
There is certainly an irrational exuberance playing against the Kings. In their last game, they were installed as five point home dogs to the San Antonio Spurs. Granted, the Spurs were coming off a big win against the Lakers the night before, but it was the 25 point Kings loss to the Spurs that has inflated the line for this game. Let?s not forget too, that the Kings trailed the Spurs 58-57 at the break.
The simulator shows a high probability that the Kings will lose this game by nine or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 52-23 ATS for 69% winners since 2006. Play on dogs failing to cover the spread in eight or more of their last 10 games and is a tired team playing eight or more games in 14 days.
I strongly believe that the Kings will look to get out to a fast start as they did in the Spurs game. This projection is supported by a first half system that has produced a 43-20 ATS mark for 68% winners since 2006. Play against road favorites of 2 to 5.5 points using the first half line after going under the total by 48 or more points in their last seven games and is a good team winning between 60% to 75% of their games and is now playing a team with a losing record.
Both team like to get out on the fast break with the Kings ranking second in the NBA scoring 18.2 fast break points per game and the Thunder ranking fifth scoring 15.9 fast break points per game.
The Thunder are vulnerable to the Kings power game. The Thunder rank 20th in the NBA allowing 41.7 opponent points in the paint per game. The Kings rank third in the NBA averaging 47.5 points in the paint per game.
Turnovers will be key factor for the Kings to keep this game to single digits. The Thunder are an elite team, but it is certainly because of their ball handling skills. They rank dead last in the NBA posting a 1.125 assist-to-turnover ratio and any Thunder turnover will immediately lead to a Kings fast break scoring opportunity.
The Kings are not the best of ball handlers either ranking 24th posting a 1.301 assist-to-turnover ratio. However, they will fare better against a Thunder defense that ranks in the bottom third in steals, and forced turnovers. Take the Kings for a 5* graded Titan Play.
Jeff Alexander
Milwaukee Brewers -138
The Brewers are showing value at this price against a Rockies club that is 18-45 in its last 63 games as an underdog and 0-6 in Chacin's last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Brewers are an impressive 53-18 in their last 71 games as a favorite and 6-1 in their last 7 home games versus Colorado. Bet the Brew Crew.
Jimmy Boyd
Philadelphia Phillies -135
The Phillies get the call as our free play tonight given their dominance over the struggling Padres. The Padres, who have lost 7 of their last 8, are up against a team they have only defeated 14 times in the last 52 meetings. They are just 4-25 in their last 29 home games against the Phillies. Hamels has been sharp out of the gate. He's 1-1 with a 3.65 ERA and has 19 strikeouts and just 1 walk. Volquez, meanwhile, is 0-1 (0-3 on the ML) with a 4.24 ERA and has 17 K's and 12 walks. The Phillies have won each of Hamels' last 3 starts versus San Diego, during which he has allowed only 1 earned run in 24 innings of work. We'll take the Phillies.
Dave Price
Tampa Bay Rays -167
The Rays get the call at home with the lefty Moore on the mound. The Rays are 3-0 at home this season, 23-8 in their last 31 home games and 87-39 in their last 126 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200. The Twins are 13-40 in their last 53 overall and are hitting just .191 and scoring only 1.7 runs/game against lefty starters this season.
Rocketman
LA Dodgers @ Houston
Play: LA Dodgers -126
The LA Dodgers travel to Houston to take on the Astros in Game One of this 3 game weekend series. Houston is 14-40 last 54 games when playing on Friday. LA Dodgers are 4-1 scoring 5.4 runs per game against left handed starters this year. Dodgers send Ted Lilly to the mound today and he was near perfect in his first outing this season. He is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA overall on the season allowing only two hits in 7 innings pitched. Lilly is 7-3 with a 2.64 ERA in all starts vs Houston in his career. LA Dodgers are 37-15 last 52 overall games. LA Dodgers are 6-1 last 7 games as a road favorite. Houston is 38-80 last 118 games overall. Houston is 29-65 last 94 games as an underdog. Houston is 8-27 last 35 games when Happ starts including 1-11 when Happ starts against a team with a winning record. Dodgers are 4-0 the past 4 meetings in this series. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Dodgers!