Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Atlanta/ Arizona Under 8.5: (Added) Brandon Beachy has allowed 5 runs in 12 innings this year, but just 1 of them was earned and he is off a game vs the Brewers in which he allowed 0 ER on 3 hits in 7 innings of work. Tonight he will face an Arizona team that is really struggling to score runs, as they have hit just .221 and put 3.4 rpg on the board in their last 5 games, while in their own park they have averaged 4.1 rpg and have hit just .227. They may get Upton back for this one, but I don't expect him to help this unit much vs Beachy tonight. The Braves offense has been very hot of late as they have averaged 6.8 rpg and have hit .281 in their last 10 games, to move up to 3rd in the league in scoring (5.77 rpg) and 8th in hitting (.253), but I don't expect that to continue tonight vs a tough righty in Trevor Cahill. The D-Backs are 18th in ERA (4.01), but it is not due to Trevor as he has a 1.35 ERA in 2 starts thus far. he has a 1.05 WHIP so far and both his starts have gone Under the total, with just 6.5 rpg being scored in the game. Trevor should also have an extra advantage as the Braves have never faced him. I expect the Arizona offense to continue to struggle vs Beachy, while Trevor will shut down this hot Atlanta Offense, at least for tonight. Look for no more than 6 runs in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
LA ANGELS -137 over Baltimore: Glad I grabbed this one last night as it is now at -145. The Halos have really struggled out the gate and with all the money they put out in the offseason, this shouldn't be happening. They are off a home series loss to the A's and now get a chance at getting back on track vs the surprising Baltimore Orioles. The Angles offense has been struggling and it really shouldnt be as this team has plenty of good hitters on, but if their is one pitcher in baseball that I would like to face if Im in a slump, its Brian Matusz. This guy is just horrible. Since the start of last year he is now 1-11 with a 10.31 ERA, including an 0-2 mark with an 8.38 ERA in 2 starts this year. He has now lost his last 11 decisions in a row and he has an 11.48 ERA in those 11 losses. Want more? Ok, he is 0-6 in his last 8 road starts, with a 9.60 ERA and 4-15 with a 5.76 ERA in the first half of the season in his career, plsu he is 1-2 with a 5.74 ERA in 3 starts vs the Halos, including 0-1 with an 11.25 ERA in 1 start here. Ouch. This guy is bad and I marvel at how he still has a job. Last night Albert had 3 doubles and he is starting to get his swing. He may get his first HR in an Angels uniform tonight vs this guy. Jerome Williams struggled in his opener, but he will get that ship righted. Jerome did go 4-0 with a 3.68 ERA last year and he is 2-0 with a 2.51 ERA in 2 career starts vs the O's. The O's are hot, but the Halos are desperate for a win here and should tee of on Brian tonight and stop their 3 game slide.
Philadelphia -126 over SAN DIEGO: Glad I grabbed this one last night as well as the line is over -130 now. As No Limit said "It'll be hard to get Cole Hamels at this price again" I have been playing more Phils games this year and it's partly due to the lower lines they have had than in the last few years. Cole Hamels would be an ace on most other teams, but with Lee and Halladay on the same team he is their 3rd best. Nice to have a pitcher with his stuff as 3rd best. Cole has a 1-1 mark with a 3.65 ERA, while he is 6-2 with a 2.28 ERA in 11 starts vs the Padres, including a 3-1 mark with a 1.23 ERA in 5 starts at Petco. The Padres have never hit will at home and this year is no exception. The Padres have hit a paultry .173 and have scored just 2.62 rpg in their home park this year. Not the kind of numbers you want to have when facing a Philly staff that has allowed just 1 run in their last 23.33 innings. The Phils offense hasn't been that great as they have hit just .198 and have scored 2.14 rpg on the road this year, but they are facing Edison Volquez, who is 0-3 in his teams starts with a 4.24 ERA. Yes he is 2-0 with an 0.73 ERA vs the Phils, but he hasn't faced them since 2008 and the Phils offense is still a bit better than the Padres, so they should do well vs Volquez in this one, while the Padres offense will struggle vs Hamels. Look for Philly to get back to .500 here.
NY Yanks/ Boston Over 10: Google News Play. Ivan Nova is 14-0 in his last 18 starts, but two of those ND were vs Boston, in which he allowed 8 ER in just 10.67 innings of work in the two starts. Overall Ivan has faced the Sox 3 times and he has a 7.04 ERA in those starts, with all 3 games hitting at least 10 runs.That should help jump start this Boston offense that has struggled of late. Boston will need their offense to get going as the Pitching has been horrible. Boston is last in the league in ERA (6.20) and 29th inj WHIP (1.53). Clay Buchholz is 1-0 on the year but with a 9.82 ERA, and his two starts have averaged 21.5 rpg so far. WOW!!! Clay also has a 4.97 ERA in his last 5 meetings with yanks and he will be facing a team that is 5th in runs scored (5.31 rpg) and 3rd in hitting (.276). Yankee starters have a 5.29 ERA on the road, while Boston's home ERA is 6.00 and their home games have averaged 12.2 rpg. I see this one hitting at least that much as the offenses should put on a good show for Boston's 100 year celebration of Fenway.
Cleveland -1.5 (+140) over OAKLAND: (Added) Last night the A's beat the Angels 4-2, but they only go two hits on the night. This is not a good offense and they got lucky with some errors last night. The A's are 27th in scoring (3.07 rpg) and 30th in hitting (.200) and I just dont feel they will come up with enough offense to keep pace with Cleveland here. Cleveland was stymied the last 2 nights vs Seattle, but they have still averaged 7.3 rpg on their current trip and are 2nd in the league in scoring (5.8 rpg) and 9th in OPS (.743), plus 5th in HR's (16). Tonight they face Graham Godfrey, who is 1-4 with a 4.50 ERA in 6 career starts overall, and in his 4 losses he was outscored by 2 runs or more in all of them. The Tribe has never faced him and that could give him an advantage, but still I don't see the Oakland offense coming up with enough offense in this one. Ubaldo has faced this team once and they put 3 runs on him in 6 innings of work, so not a lot of history between him and the A's either. Oakland is off a surprising series vs at the Angels, in which they won the last 3, but this is still not a good team and they will have problems keeping pace with the Tribe in this one.
2 UNIT PLAYS
DETROIT -110 over Texas: Google News Play. Matt Harrison is off to a great start, but how long will an 0.64 ERA last, plus this is a team he has struggled with, as he is 0-4 with a 7.43 ERA in 5 career starts vs the Tigers. The Tigers never saw Darvish till last night so he got the advantage over them and held them to a season low 5 hits. This offense is too strong for that to happen on BB nights, especially in their own park, where they have averaged 6.1 rpg so far. Rick Porcello is off to a fine start for Detroit, with a 1-00 mark and a 1.84 ERA in 2 starts and he just could be the one to slow this offense down here. Coming into the year Detroit was favored by many to win it all and after getting beat bad at home last night, you can expect them to be fully focused for this one and get some revenge. Detroit hits Harrison hard again and bounces back nicely here.
LA Angels/ Baltimore Over 9: (Added) I really expect the LA Offense to come alive tonight vs Brian Matusz, who has been horrible since the starts of 2011 (see stats above). The Angels have plenty of pop on their team and they are in desperation mode, so I expect them to explode a bit tonight. Jerome is Williams is not a great starter and was shelled in his opening game and he will be taking on a solid Baltimore offense that should get a few off of him here. Both teams have had problems with pitching as both teams have allowed 5.2 rpg in their last 5 games and I can see this one easily hitting 10 runs here.
1 UNIT PLAYS
LA Dodgers -134 over HOUSTON: (Added) I know I have been all over the Dodgers for their strong start being attributed to a weak schedule and they did lose 2 of 3 at Milwaukee, but Houston is not a very good team and falls into the category of a weak opponent. The Dodgers have more offense and better pitching than Houston and should get back to dominating the weaker teams on their schedule and Houston will clearly be in the lower 5 teams (record wise) at seasons end.
Toronto -1.5 (-145) over KANSAS CITY: (Added) Toronto had a rough series vs the Rays, but they should get back on track here. Their offense is very potent and should get back to scoring runs vs a Kansas City team that has a 6.22 ERA in their own park. The jays are scoring 5 rpg overall, while KC has averaged just 3.8 rpg. Kyle Drabek has started out 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA, while Luke Hochevar is 1-1 with a high 7.84 ERA. All edges poibnt to an easy win by the Jays here.