Karl Garrett
Atlanta (+5') at CLEVELAND
Thursday comp play winner on Orlando over Dallas, now 27-23-1 my last 51 comp plays.
Counting last season's playoff sweep, Cleveland has now won 8 in a row over Atlanta, and they are 4-1-1 against the spread the last 6 times these teams have played.
Based on those numbers, you would think the Cavaliers are a lock to secure another win and cover over the Hawks, but with not much to play for these days, I don't trust the Cavs to cover this impost.
Cleveland is just 2-5 against the spread their last 7 games, failing 3 in a row, and they are also just 15-22 against the spread overall at home this year.
Atlanta got a shot of confidence with Wednesday's domination of the Lakers, and they are on an 8-2 spread run their last 10 games.
Willing to grab the points, and go with the underdog Hawks tonight.
5♦ ATLANTA
Nick Parsons
Montreal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers
Prediction: Montreal Canadiens
An important game for both teams; The Flyers are 1-5-1 while the Habs are 1-3-2 since March 20th.
Philadelphia is coming off a 6-4 humbling loss to the Islanders yesterday, and I believe they'll be somewhat gassed this evening and ultimately that will be the difference.
Montreal is coming off a loss of its own, 2-1 to Carolina on Wednesday.
This is the first game of a back-to-back for Montreal; suffice to say I expect a huge effort from the Habs before their game with the Sabres tomorrow.
Both teams are struggling in most ATS statistical categories, but this is a spot that Montreal has done well in all year, and I expect that trend to continue this evening; 21-17 (+8.7 units) revenging a loss vs. an opponent (Philly won back-to-back games on Feb 12th and 13th in a home-and-home affair).
Consider a second look at Montreal tonight.
Nelly
Indiana - over Miami
The Heat has won six games in a row to solidify its playoff spot and close within a half game of the #5 seeded Bucks. Miami is facing a tough travel spot however as this will be the fifth road game over the past six contests. Miami won easily in Detroit on Wednesday but Indiana has become a very tough place to play. The Pacers are going to be a dangerous spoiler team down the stretch as this is a team that is finally healthy and playing well late in the year. The Pacers have won six of the last seven overall and Indiana has won eight straight at home including several quality wins, beating Chicago, Charlotte, Oklahoma City and Utah. Indiana is 11-2-1 ATS over the last 14 games. Indiana has become a much better defensive team down the stretch including allowing just 92 points per game over the last five games and the Pacers still have one of the better offensive teams in the league. Indiana is 20-16 S/U at home this season while the Heat are just one game over .500 away from home. The home team has covered in seven of the last eight meetings in this series and after Miami has won the last two meetings by convincing margins this will be a big game for the Pacers. Look for Indiana to win this game as Miami is greatly overvalued facing a very difficult travel situation against an underrated Indiana team.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Orlando Magic at San Antonio Spurs
The Orlando Magic have taken three straight games over the last two seasons from the San Antonio Spurs and must travel there tonight and face them on no rest. Orlando is coming off a big 97-82 victory at Dallas last night and now must face another strong Western Conference team in the Spurs. Although likely to make the playoffs, San Antonio has yet to clinch a spot. They need a win or a Memphis loss. The Spurs are solid at home with a 27-11 mark while outscoring opponents 104.7 to 96.4 PPG. Make a play on San Antonio.
Play on: San Antonio Spurs
MATT FARGO
Phoenix @ Detroit
PICK: Detroit +9
Phoenix has won nine straight games while the Pistons have lost nine straight games so one guess who the majority of the pubic will be on here? The Suns continue to win when it counts and they are certainly peaking at the right time but I don’t like this spot one bit. I like going against these streaks to begin with and the fact that Phoenix has won the first three games of this roadtrip against non-playoff teams and now facing another non-playoff team makes it even stronger. The reason is focus. In the NBA it is impossible for teams to get up for the opposition every time out and that is heightened even more when those teams are of much lesser caliber. I hate to use the word bored but Phoenix could very well be feeling that tonight especially with a game at Milwaukee tomorrow night, the first game against a team with a pulse since March 21st against Portland. While the Suns continue to win, Detroit continues to step on its own feet. Nine straight losses are one thing but nine straight losses against the spread is another and that shows the games have not been competitive at all. Six of those nine losses were by double-digits showing just how bad it has been but the skid has to come to a close sometime and I believe this is the ideal situation especially with four of the next five games coming on the road. The Pistons are 16-22 at home which is certainly not good in this league but again, it comes down to the situation and the contrarian thinking involved in it. There are injury situations on both sides which is the reason for the line being off the board to start as both Steve Nash and Richard Hamilton are questionable. It would not surprise me for the Suns to rest Nash tonight because of his back issues and have him fresh for tomorrow against Milwaukee. Either way, his playing or sitting will not affect the play. Detroit also falls into a contrarian situation. Play on underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in 12 or more of their last 15 games going up against an opponent after having covered three of their last four games against the spread. This situation is 49-20 ATS (71 percent) since 1996. Phoenix is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games against teams with a losing record at home so that just adds to the fact that it will have trouble preparing for this game. We won an ugly one against Phoenix last Sunday with Minnesota and I expect a similar result here. 3* Detroit Pistons
TEDDY COVERS
Phoenix @ Detroit
PICK: Phoenix -8
The Pistons have earned occasional wins since the All Star break. They’ve proven capable of beating teams like the Wizards, the Kings and the T-wolves – the NBA’s real bottom feeders. But nine straight losses, and a 2-16 SU mark in their last 18 ballgames shows us very clearly that Detroit is just playing out the string at this stage of the season. They’ve been largely non-competitive in recent contests, including an ugly defeat at ten-win New Jersey, followed by equally ugly home losses to the Bulls and Heat.
Overpaid forward Charlie Villaneuva: “You have to ride it out to the end.” Head coach John Kuester: “Every game is a challenge for us.” Detroit has covered only two pointspreads in their last ten tries as home underdogs, and they lost 117-91 in their previous meeting with the Suns this season; their third consecutive loss by ten points or more in this series.
Meanwhile, the Suns are kicking it into high gear as they approach the postseason, reeling off nine consecutive win, including the first three on this road trip. The Suns have been quite adept at taking care of business on the road against bottom feeders, with wins over the likes of Minnesota, New Jersey, Chicago Golden State, Sacramento and the LA Clippers in their last six tries as a road favorite. Now that the Suns finally have a healthy bench to complement their talented starters, expect Phoenix to simply have too much firepower for the Pistons to match. 2* Take Phoenix.
LARRY NESS
Utah @ L.A. Lakers
Pick: Lakers -4.5
The Jazz visit LA one game ahead of the Nuggets in the Northwest and just 4 1/2-games back of the Lakers for the overall No. 1 seed in the West (are tied with the Mavs). It's unlikely the Jazz will catch the Lakers but they'd sure love to nail down that No. 2 seed, thereby avoiding LA until the conference finals. The Lakers look to avoid a third straight loss (fell at New Orleans on Monday and Atlanta on Wednesday), as they return home after a five-game road trip (went just 2-3). The Jazz have won eight of their last 10 games but the bad news for Utah fans (and good news for LA fans) is that the Lakers own 13 straight home wins over the Jazz. The streak dates back to January of 2006 and includes six postseason victories as well, with the Lakers averaging 114.3 PPG while shooting 51.4 percent from the floor during the streak. LA remains without Bynum (15.0-8.3) until mid-April while the Jazz will be missing Kirilenko (11.9-4.6). Both teams are plenty deep and led by a pair of All Stars. Utah features Boozer (19.6-11.2) and Williams (18.3-4.0-10.6) while LA counters with Kobe (27.2-5.3-5.1) and Gasol (17.6-11.1). The Jazz are the league's best shooting team (49.2 percent) but LA doesn't get enough credit for its defense, owning the league's sixth-best defensive FG percentage, including No. 1 in three-point shooting (32.5). The Lakers will need Bynum come playoff time (in late May and June) but tonight, expect the Jazz to bring out the best in them, as LA rolls to a double-digit win. Lay the points.
Tony George
Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Utah Jazz +4.5
Line going down, grab it NOW. LA in a funk and Utah is 41-18-1 ATS their last 60 games and are an excellent road team. Looking to snap a long time losing streak in LA, and Sloan would love to kick them when they are down. LA off a brutal road run, tough spot for them at home and Artest is very iffy tonight. I like the Jazz getting the points here, and I talked about this game on the podcast today as well. Utah has mor to play for here.
SEAN MILLER
Calgary Flames @ Colorado Avalanche
PICK: Over 5
The oddsmakers have made quite a statement by setting the total at a flat five for this game tonight. This is essentially a playoff game between two teams battling it out for the eighth and final postseason spot in the Western Conference, but in this particular case, I'm not sure that means we'll see an ultra-low scoring game.
We're already in fairly solid position playing this one at a five, simply based on the fact that the last seven meetings in this series, dating back to the start of last year, have resulted in at least five total goals. If you can believe it, all five matchups this season have produced identical 3-2 scorelines, with Colorado winning four of those games.
The Flames are not short on confidence right now. They've won back-to-back games to pull within two points of the Avalanche, after the playoffs looked like a pipe dream at the end of last week. They're always going to be a defense-first team, but it's worth noting that they've actually had more offensive success on the road than at home, averaging just over 2.6 goals per game. They scored five goals in their most recent road contest, a 5-3 win in Washington this past Sunday.
The Avs main problem right now is their abysmal defense. They may be in playoff position right now, but they're certainly not playing like it. They've allowed 27 goals over their last six games, and have lost six of their last seven overall. Perhaps it's to be expected, as this is a young team which is led by an unproven goaltender in Craig Anderson. Note that he has given up at least four goals in five of his last six starts.
Even though they've struggled lately, the Avs still remain a solid home team at 23-14 on the season. They've acknowledged the fact that they've been squeezing the stick a little too tight, so to speak, and I do tend to think we'll see a better effort from them here tonight. For that reason I'm not interested in fading them, especially given the short underdog price with the Flames.
At worst, I expect to get a push in this one, as another 3-2 result certainly wouldn't come as any surprise. However, I'm confident that we'll see a more wide-open affair than the oddsmakers are calling for, as the Flames continue to play with confidence, and the Avalanche try to go back to playing the style that has worked for them for most of the season. Take the over.
Hollywood Sports
Houston Rockets at Boston Celtics
Prediction: Boston Celtics
After Oklahoma City took twice as many free throws as Boston's 17 trips to the charity stripe despite being on their home floor, look for the Celtics to get better treatment by the referees in their game with Houston tonight. Boston's 109-104 loss to the Thunder was their second loss in a row. The Celtics (47-27) should bounce-back here as they have covered four of their last five home games against teams with a losing record on the road (Houston is 16-20 away from home). Boston has also covered four of their last five games when favored in the 5-10.5 point range. Houston (37-37) is riddled with injuries as they play out the string. Shane Battier and Jared Jeffries are out for at least another week with their injuries. Both Kevin Martin and David Andersen are listed as questionable for tonight. After their 119-102 loss to San Antonio, the Rockets have lost five of their last six games. And they have failed to cover the spread in four straight games coming off a loss. Defense has been the biggest problem for the Rockets as they are allowing 108.6 PPG on 51.5% shooting over their last five games. Houston has failed to cover their last five road games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Rockets have failed to cover in thirteen of their last sixteen games against teams with a winning percentage above 60%. Motivated to end their losing streak, Boston should dominate an under-manned Rockets club. Lay the points with Boston.
Jack Jones
L.A. Lakers -4
After losing 3 out of 5 games on their recent 5-game road trip, the Lakers will be motivated and hungry for a win when they return home Friday to face the Utah Jazz. This is one team they have simply owned at home, so it's the perfect opponent to stop the bleeding. The Lakers are 11-0 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home meetings with the Jazz, dating back over the last 3 years. L.A. is 32-5 at home this season, winning by an average of 9.4 PPG. The odds makers have dropped this line due to the Lakers' recent struggles, placing tremendous value on the home team.
This play also falls under a system that is 42-17 (71%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home favorites (LA LAKERS) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). I'll back this trend tonight and roll with the Lakers.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Suns/Pistons UNDER 211
There's a good chance Steve Nash won't play tonight, and if he does play, it will be sparingly. With this in mind, the pace of this game shouldn't be as fast as we are used to seeing with the Suns. Phoenix won't have to go all out to beat a Pistons team that has packed it in so I don't expect them to, especially with a game against a better Bucks team on deck tomorrow. Lastly, plays Under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DETROIT) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, are 27-4 since 1996. Bet the Under.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Rockets/Celtics UNDER 202.5
Boston had held 3 straight opponents and 7 of its last 8 under the century mark. Then, it let the Thunder explode for 109 points. Look for that poor defensive effort to motivate the Celtics to "D" up against the Rockets this evening. Both of these teams went over the number easily in their last games. As a result, odds makers have really jacked up this number. We've seen these teams finish below this number in 16 straight and I fully expect this trend to continue. The Under is 4-0 in the Rockets' last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Under is also 5-1 in the Celtics' last 6 Friday games. Take the Under here tonight as I believe odds makers have set the bar too high.
John Ryan
Montreal Canadiens vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Play: Montreal Canadiens
3* graded play on Montreal as the take on Philadelphia in NHL action set to start at 7:00 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Montreal will win this game. Flyers are coming off a horrid 6-4 loss to the Islanders just last night and have lost 8 of 10 games. Montreal had won 6 straight until recently losing 5 of their last 6. Still, Montreal is playing far better defense allowing 4 goals in just one of these games while Philadelphia has allowed more than 4 goals in 4 games. They allowed 6 last night to the Islanders and 5 at Atlanta on March 20th. With 5 games left the Eastern Conference play-off teams are still undecided. Atlanta is not just 2 points behind Philadelphia, Montreal, and Boston, who all have 82 points. Flyers have 4 games left after tonight’s game. They will face Detroit then at Toronto, the at the Rangers, then home against Rangers. None of these are easy wins either. Toronto may be in last place in the Eastern Conference, but they attained 71 points on a 29-36-13 mark. They are also 18-16-5 at home. POint is that the Flyers may be the team not making the playoffs of this group of 4 teams. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 651-693 making 129 units since 1996. Play against home Favorites of -200 or less against the money line after one or more consecutive overs and in a game involving two average teams posting a -0.4 to +0.4 goal/game differential. It is rare that any money line system makes over a 100 units in profits, but when it does it is certainly one to pay attention to closes and take advantage of qualified opportunities. Take Montreal.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Chicago Bulls -4.5
The Bulls will be the more motivated team tonight as they look to avenge a loss to Washington and keep their playoff hopes alive in the process. Right away I like the fact that plays on road favorites (CHICAGO) revenging a straight up loss vs. an opponent as a favorite, off a home loss, are 95-47 ATS since 1996, 24-11 ATS the last 3 seasons and 4-1 ATS this season. In addition, the Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Chicago will want this one more. Lay the points.