Black Widow
1* on Atlanta Hawks +5.5
This is a statement game for Atlanta, and we fully expect the Hawks to bring their best game to the floor tonight in Cleveland. Atlanta has wins over the Magic and the Lakers in their last 4 games, so they are really starting to show that they can beat the big boys which will make them a dangerous out in the playoffs. This is certainly a revenge game for the Hawks, as they've lost 8 straight games against Cleveland, including a 101-106 road loss the last time they met. In that game, the Hawks blew a 12-point halftime lead. Atlanta is chomping at the bit to get revenge tonight and play a full 48-minute game, which will be good enough to cover this number and likely win outright. Cleveland is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in home games after a win by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Atlanta is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) this season. Take the Hawks and the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Miami +1.03 over INDIANA
Danny Granger is a great player and cashes in about as many tough shots as anyone the league, however, D-Wade is even better and the Pacers are at a huge defensive disadvantage here. The Heat was going through the motions most of the year and when they did show up on occasion they were tough as shoe leather. Well, now they appear to be focused, determined and in playoff push mode and man, do they look good. They’ve won six straight and they’re not only winning but they’re doing so with relative ease. In fact, its last four games on the road were all double-digit victories. Miami has also won six straight overall. As for the Pacers, well the good news is that they’re winning games lately and that’s good news because its recent performances have influence on this line. Having said that, they’re simply a very beatable team and they’re showing signs of getting back to the form that saw them go 7-20 from January 16 to March 12. There’s a reason they Pacers have just 28 wins and although Granger did miss a lot of time, the fact is the Pacers are dreadful on defense while the Heat are the exact opposite. If Granger is contained the Pacers have virtually no shot and the Heat are as capable as anyone of doing exactly that. Play: Miami +1.03 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee +3½/+1.45 over CHARLOTTE
Time Warner is proving to be one of the toughest arenas in the league to win at but damn, the Bobcats offense, or lack thereof is absolutely going to cost them some games soon. Charlotte is a remarkable 28-9 at home and anyone that can explain that is a genius. This is a very average ball club that plays great defensively but is hugely flawed as well. They’re not strong on the boards, they lack depth and they’ll be exposed in a big way come playoff time but that does not count for this one. What we all know is that the Bucks are strong on the boards, they can both score and defend and they’re still one of the hottest teams in the Association. They went into Cleveland on Wednesday and nearly pulled off the upset, losing by just three. If there’s such a thing as a “good loss”, that was it and it will not take away any momentum this team is carrying right now. If anything it was inspiring because they know they can compete with anyone in the East. The Cats last four games were against Minnesota, Washington, Toronto and Philly and after playing that quartet, playing the Bucks will be a much stiffer and unwelcome challenge. Bucks outright. Play: Milwaukee +3½ (Risking 1.06 units to win 1). Play: Milwaukee +1.45 (Risking 1 unit).
Utah +4½/+1.72 over L.A. LAKERS
The Lakers stock is down and they’re taking a bit of heat in the media so it might not be the best time to go against them. Thing is, these Jazz are in much better than L.A. and the Lakers have a Nationally televised game up next against San An on Easter Sunday. Furthermore, the Lakers return home from five game trip and they looked pretty ugly in all four games. Derek Fisher is way off, the Lakers bench has been virtually non-existent and aside from Kobe, so has the rest of the team. So, what we’re likely going to see tonight is Kobe trying to do it all himself and against a Jerry Sloan coached team, that’s unlikely to work. The Lakers reign of supremacy is showing flaws and in no way will the Jazz be intimidated in this setting. This is a game they want and they want it badly. They have the talent and momentum to succeed and while the Lakers are still highly qualified to beat anyone, this is too good a situation and price to ignore the pooch. Play: Utah +4½ (Risking 1.03 units to win 1). Play Utah +1.72 (Risking 1 unit).
Stan Lisowski
PHOENIX
Suns are the highest scoring team in the league facing the second lowest scoring club in Detroit. Pistons have lost 9 straight games, both outright and to the number. Phoenix has won 3 consecutive games by at least 10 points in this series.
Chris Jordan
Milwaukee at CHARLOTTE (-3')
Two upstarts do battle on Tobacco Road tonight, and I’m siding with the home team, as the Bobcats have a little more to play for right now, sitting in seventh place in the Eastern Conference. Charlotte, which is 3-1 on a five-game homestand that ends tonight, improved to 28-9 as a host this season after drubbing Philadelphia, 103-84, Wednesday night. It was Charlotte’s fourth win in five games.
Now the ‘Cats catch the Bucks after a disappointing loss in Cleveland, where they might have spent too much energy in a 101-98 loss on Wednesday. Milwaukee has now lost three times in five games spanning the past nine days.
Looking inside the numbers, the ‘Cats are on winning ATS runs of 7-3 versus Central Division teams, 6-1 on Friday nights, 4-1 as the favorite, 5-2 as the home chalk and 7-1 overall. Point blank, ever since M.J. took over as majority owner of this team, it became a legitimate threat of this mid-range teams in the Eastern Conference.
Lay the chalk with Charlotte.
2♦ BOBCATS
Michael Cannon
Milwaukee at CHARLOTTE (-3')
I’m now 23-13 with my last 36 free plays.
Take the Bobcats as the home chalk over the Bucks. Charlotte plays great defense and has been tough to beat at home.
The Bobcats are riding a 4-1 SUATS streak in their last five, and they’ve gone 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight overall.
Take Charlotte minus the points as they grab the home win and cover.
3♦ CHARLOTTE
Chuck O'Brien
Chicago (-5) at WASHINGTON
Friday’s complimentary selection comes from the NBA, and I’ll back the Bulls minus the points at Washington.
Chicago has had its problems with the lowly Wizards this year, needing overtime to score a two-point home win and then losing by six in D.C. as a 2½-point road favorite. And Washington has gotten the money in four straight meetings and seven of the last eight. But we’ve reached that point in the season where things like past history take a backseat to more important handicapping factors, like motivation.
The Bulls trail Toronto for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, meaning every game is a must-win for Chicago right now (particularly games against teams that are 30 games under .500 like Washington).
The Wizards are one of several teams in the league playing out the string, and while you can often find pointspread value on such teams, it only applies to squads that have shown heart and want-to in an otherwise dismal season. Clearly, Washington doesn’t fall into that category. The Wizards barely escaped an 0-for-March with Wednesday’s 96-91 upset win in New Orleans. But prior to that, they had dropped 16 straight games to start the month, including 10 defeats by nine points or more. And since beating Chicago on Feb. 22, Washington has lost eight straight home games (1-7 ATS) by an average of 11 ppg.
The Bulls have won four of their last six overall, and they’re on a 7-2 ATS run, including four consecutive spread-covers on the road. They’ve also cashed in 10 of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record and five straight when coming off a defeat (Chicago fell by six points to Phoenix on Tuesday). As long as they don’t get caught looking ahead to Saturday’s home game vs. Charlotte – which shouldn’t happen given their struggles this year against Washington – the Bulls will win this one going away.
2♦ CHICAGO
Derek Mancini
Miami at INDIANA (-1)
Nice hit on Dayton cruising past North Carolina with last night's Freebie! Also got my 10 Dime Winner # 5 In A Row on the Nuggets with my paid release! Don't miss out my 30 Dime NBA Game Of The Month tonight (9-1 Best Bet roll with paid releases)!
Lay it. Miami wins all three meetings this season by an average of 25 points, and now all of a sudden, their underdogs tonight?! Seems like an automatic "must play" on the Heat, but its anything but that. Indiana has won 8 straight at Conseco Fieldhouse, and they'll bring a little extra mustard in trying to avoid the season sweep tonight.
Heat made it look easy against a Detroit team that's already mailed it in, but gamblers shouldn't confuse Indiana with Detroit. Pacers season may be over soon, but don't tell them that, winners of 6 of their L7 overall! Heat have been feasting on a very favorable schedule down the stretch, but this is the one true stumbling block I see for them looking over their final 7 games.
Key here is the health of Jermaine O'neal, because the Heat will need his interior defense to stop a surging Pacers frontline. Hibbert has played well in his L4 home games (14 ppg, 6 rpg, 2.5 blocks/game), and Murphy continues to be a solid 2nd option with an almost guaranteed double-double every night. And do I even need to say anything about how good Granger has been?! Lay the points, as Miami gets its first real road test during their win streak, and a hobbled O'neal leaves them vulnerable inside. Pacers are the play here.
3♦ INDIANA
Brandon Lang
Atlanta at CLEVELAND (-5')
It's one thing to beat a road-weary Lakers team on your home court on Wednesday, something altogether different to try and upset Cleveland on the road this evening.
I am sorry, but as good as Atlanta is, they can't hold a candle to Cleveland right now. Counting the playoffs, the Cavaliers have ripped off 8 straight wins over the Hawks, and have gone 4-1-1 against the spread in the last 6 series meetings.
It's just a bad matchup for the Hawks, and in the NBA, it is all about matchups.
Cleveland makes it 9 in a row in the series, and 5-1-1 against the spread with the win and cover tonight at home.
Jeff Benton
That’s now 12 of 13 freebie winners as Magic (5♦) routed the Mavericks last night. In addition to that, I’m on runs of 51-23-2, 41-18-2 and 32-13-2 with plays that I’m giving away!
For Friday, I’ll go for my third straight NBA free-play winner by taking the Heat on the road at the Pacers.
The only thing that kept me from releasing this as a premium selection is the fact Indiana is actually playing with a ton of effort down the stretch of an otherwise lost season. The Pacers are 6-1 in their last seven games and 7-2 in the last nine, and they’re the hottest pointspread team in the league (11-2-1 ATS last 13 games, including 6-0-1 ATS at home).
That said, Miami is playing stellar basketball, too, having won six in a row (4-1-1 ATS) and 12 of its last 15 (9-4-1 ATS last 14). During their six-game winning streak, the Heat have won and covered four in a row on the road by margins of 10, 29, 13 and 17 points! Also, Miami has beaten the crap out of Indiana three times this season, winning 96-83 as a two-point road underdog, 114-80 as an 8½-point home favorite and 113-83 as a 6½-point home chalk.
The Heat, who have also cashed in 23 of 32 on Friday, are in must-win mode as they battle for playoff positioning in the Eastern Conference. Finally, you can be sure Dwyane Wade and Co. are well aware of Indiana’s recent strong play (meaning Miami’s not going to take this game lightly).
6♦ MIAMI HEAT
Scott Delaney
Phoenix at Detroit
This should be an absolute blowout.
Phoenix has elevated its game, while the Pistons are looking about as bleak as they come. Even the lowly Wizards and Nets look better than the Motown Boys lately.
So why not make this a premium play? That’s easy … I don’t want to get trapped with a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter, only to see the bench cleared in the final period, and the backdoor wide open.
Nevertheless, the Suns should be the right side in this one, as they come in after going 12-2 in March and sporting an NBA-best 18-4 since the All-Star break. Phoenix has a very good chance to earn home-court for the first round of the playoffs - and ultimately could finish as high as second in the Western Conference.
The Pistons, on the other hand, ended March on a nine-game losing streak, and losing games by an average of 14.1 points. And I doubt this dinged-up roster will be able to withstand the offensive surge the Suns bring to each game.
Lay the road chalk.
2♦ SUNS
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play winner is the Utah Jazz. I could be playing with fire here as the Lakers are a ticked off basketball team right now, but the Jazz are one of the hottest teams in the NBA and they seem to be clicking on all cylinders. Deron Williams is starting to play like a true point guard, Carlos Boozer is playing like a man possessed, and they are getting tremendous support from some of their bench players. Kyle Korver is hitting three pointers at an alarming rate and Paul Millsap is not only scoring, he's doing a solid job on the boards. For the first time in a long time, this team is playing like a TEAM, and they are doing the little things well... the things that don't show up on the stat sheet. The Lakers just haven't been playing like the Lakers recently, and until they do there's no way in heck I can back them. Ron Artest seems to be imploding right before our eyes, and the loss of Andrew Bynum hurts their toughness inside. Kobe is simply having to carry too much of the load and he's better when he's able to get others involved. I'm not saying the Lakers necessarily lose this game, but I do like Utah to take this right down to the wire.
2♦ UTAH
Brett Atkins
Delivered another free winner on Thursday, improving my current streak to 5-0-1 with my free plays. Tonight, I'm delivering on the NBA hardwood again as I grab the points with the Jazz as they are in Los Angeles to take on the Lakers.
Utah's problem for years has been their inability to score enough points to beat the Western Conference elite. Well, now they are scoring points in bunches, topping 100 points in 11 straight games and 17 of their last 18.
Carlos Boozer has been the leader on the court, but the guy who makes this team go is guard Deron Williams who dished out 19 assists in a blowout of the Warriors on Wednesday.
Utah knows how to cover a number, going 41-18-3 ATS overall, 10-3 as an underdog and 15-6-1 on the highway.
On the other side, the Lakers have lost two straight and three of five and they have averaged barely 93 points a game in their last five. Grab the points with the Jazz to win and cover in this one. .
2♦ UTAH
Jay McNeil
Houston at Boston
Good spot for the Celtics, who desperately need a win to shake a funk. ANd against the hapless Rockets, Boston should be able to secure the win and cover at home.
I know the C's have had a tougher time at home, but this one won't be an issue, as the Rockets have lost five of six after a 17-point setback at San Antonio two nights back.
The Rockets are mired in ATS setbacks of 6-14 on the road, 0-5 after an ATS loss, 0-5 as the installed underdog and 5-17 against Eastern Conference teams.
Lay the home chalk.
2♦ CELTICS
Joel Tyson
Break up the Wizards, as Washington just snapped a 16-game losing streak with a road outright at New Orleans!
Can't expect them to make it 2 in a row though, as Chicago is pretty much in must-wins situations from here on out, and they have been able to win 4 of their last 6, while covering in 7 of their last 9.
The Bulls have also won 4 of the last 6 series meetings, while the Wizards enter on a 1-7 spread slide their last 8 at home.
Go with Chicago as the road favorite.
4♦ CHICAGO
Scott Spreitzer
Suns at Pistons
A classic late season game of a motivated team fighting for playoff positioning against a dead team. It’s tough to find reasons to back the Pistons, on an 0-9 SU/ATS run! The defense is terrible, Richard Hamilton is hurting, and players are griping. It can’t be any fun to be in that locker room (or on the court). The Suns are on a 9-game win streak, motivated and clicking on offense. That offense will tear up this lifeless Motown ‘D’. Play the Suns.