Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, April 22,2011

Marc Lawrence

Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: Atlanta Braves

When Atlanta opens a three-game series with the Giants in San Francisco Friday evening the Braves will send Tommy Hanson to the hill against Madison Bumgarner knowing Hanson has cashed in four of his last six starts in this series, including 1-0 in this park. On the flip side, Bumgarner is winless in four career team starts in games he's hurled in April, May and June. Bumgarner is also in terrible KW form with eight walks and seven strikeouts this season, that on the heels of posting a 7.17 ERA this spring. Look for the Braves to get a piece of the defending World Champions here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Atlanta.

Scott Spreitzer

Red Sox at Angels
Prediction: Under

Last night I read an article stating that Boston "has their swagger back." That may be true due to their current mini-run, but it's not necessarily true at the plate. Last night, Boston scored a grand total of four runs, including just two runs through nine innings. They have scored a total of just 9 runs in their last 3 games combined. So, not so sure about that "swagger" just yet, at least away from Fenway. Gaining momentum at the plate will not be an easy task against red-hot Dan Haren. The Angel righty has allowed just 4 earned runs and 20 base runners in 31 innings of action so far this season. And while his career record against Boston is just 2-5 in eight starts, it must be noted that the losses have been due to no fault of his own. Haren has held the BoSox to 17 earned runs and 56 base runners, while striking out 43 batters in 47 2/3 innings of action. That's a sparkling, 3.21 ERA & 1.17 WHIP with an 8.11 Ks per 9 IP ratio. He'll face a Boston lineup that's ranked 22nd in the Majors in team batting average, with a mediocre .709 OPS. Jon Lester has been a bright spot for the Sox, sporting a 1.80 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and a 9.9 Ks per 9 IP ratio over his last three starts. Lester has faced the Angels just once since the end of the 2008 season and held the Halos to 1 earned run and 7 base runners in 8 innings of work. The Under is 20-4-2 in the Angels last 26 home games with a total in the 7 to 8 1/2 range. They're on a 7-0 Under run in this situation when Haren is on the mound. I'm playing the Under between the Red Sox & Angels on Friday night.

Frank Jordan

Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers

This is a good pitching match up of Buehrle against Verlander as these two pitchers are different in all their ways. Verlander is a hard throwing young righty while Buehrle is a crafty veteran lefty. Buehrle is 1-1 and of late has been locked into some great pitchers duel and the best part he has only given up one homerun this year. Verlander is 1-2 and has gotten just two runs of support total in the last two starts both losses. Look for another low scoring affair with the Tigers getting a win for Verlander as the offense smacks Buehrle around. Play Detroit

Cajun Sports

Colorado Rockies vs. Florida Marlins
Selection: Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies make the long trip to south Florida for a three-game weekend set against the host Marlins with Game 1 on Friday night and the first pitch set for 7:10PM EST. Currently Colorado is leading the way in the National League with a record of 13-5 on the season. The Rockies are coming off a 10 to 2 win on Wednesday over the champion San Francisco Giants with that win they were able to halt a possible sweep by the Giants as they lost the series 2-1. Colorado will send Jhoulys Chacin to the bump in hopes he can continue his hot streak having posted a 3-0 record this season with a 1.64 ERA. The Rockies have had no problem scoring runs when playing away from the Mile High City averaging 6.1 runs per game with an OBP of .354. The Marlins will send Anibal Sanchez to the hill with his 0-1 record in three outings to start the 2011 campaign. Sanchez is averaging just 5.4 innings per start with an ERA of 5.51 over that span. The Fish are averaging 4.6 runs per game at home with a .274 BA. Florida has struggled as a home underdog going 7-21 the last two seasons including 4-15 as a home underdog of +100 to +125. Colorado on the other hand has been a money making machine this season in this price range posting a record of 11-1 including 7-0 when playing away from home. With the better hurler on the bump and the support of some hot bats, we will call for a Colorado victory on Friday night.

Rob Vinciletti

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

What we want to do in this game is play on road favorites off a home loss with a total that was 8 or less if they scored 4 or less runs and the opponent is also off a home loss. This system hits in the Mid 70% range. The Rays are 8-3 vs losing teams and have won 5 of 7 this season when the total is 8 to 8.5. Toronto is averaging 3 runs per game on .215 hitting in Division play. They have JJ. Reyes making the start and he has been awful so far this season with a 6.75 era allowing 12 runs in 13 innings with 22 hits and 7 walks. Tampa has Hellickson going tonight and he has a decent 3.38 road era. Look for Tampa to take game 1 of this series here tonight.

Jim Feist

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks have been improved offensively for manager Kirk Gibson, 8th in baseball in runs scored and 4th in slugging, with the emergence of Stephen Drew and Justin Upton. The Mets have been awful, particularly at home, and they are 8-20 in their last 28 vs. the National League West. Mike Pelfrey is a part of the problem, with an 0-2 record and a 9.75 ERA. For his career against Arizona he's 0-5 with a 6.69 ERA! Play the Diamondbacks.

Steve Merril

Indians vs. Twins
Play: Under 7½

The offensive struggles continue for the Twins as they failed to score 5 runs again on Thursday night. Minnesota returns home to host the surprising Cleveland Indians. Going for the Tribe is Fausto Carmona who has put his opening day disaster behind him. The righty is 1-1 with a 1.25 ERA in his last three starts which have come against Baltimore, LA Angels, and Boston. Carmona had some success against the Twins in his last two starts last season giving up 2 runs and nine hits in 14.7 innings of work. Carmona has had success against Jim Thome (5-20), Delmon Young (5-20), Denard Span (4-24), Alexi Casilla (4-16), Danny Valencia (1-9), Drew Butera (1-7) and Matt Tolbert (0-5). The Twins have gone Under the total in six of their last eight games and Under in 14 of their 19 games overall. They'll face a Cleveland bullpen that has an ERA under 3.00 and a unit that has yet to blow a save this season.

Brian Duensing goes for the Twins. He is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA on the season. Duensing is coming off a solid seven inning effort against the Rays on the road his last time out. The lefty beat the Tribe twice last year giving up 7 runs and 15 hits in 13.3 innings pitched over two outings. Cleveland hitters are 13 for 56 against the lefty with Adam Everett (1-6), Shelley Duncan (1-5), Michael Brantley (1-8) and Lou Marson (0-5) having the least success. Minnesota's bullpen is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA at home giving up just 4 runs in 16 innings of work. It'll be important to see if Justin Morneau and Delmon Young are in the lineup because both were still listed as questionable with the flu.

James Patrick Sports

Sabres vs. Flyers

At the conclusion of Game Four in Buffalo the gloves came off setting the tone for the most important game of this series in Philadelphia. The Under is (10-4-2) in Sabres last (16) playoff games as an underdog and the Under is (5-2) in Flyers last (7) home games. On the ice in Friday Stanley Cup Playoff action Big Game James Patrick's complimentary selection is Buffalo - Philadelphia Under the Total.

VEGAS EXPERTS

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles

After a fast start, the Orioles are really struggling right now and the last team they want to see come calling to Camden Yards is the division rival Yankees. New York took both games of a two game set earlier in the year & is now 28-10 vs. the AL East rivals the last three seasons. They will start ace CC Sabathia tonight, in search of his first win, and Baltimore simply isn't scoring right now against southpaws (2.0 runs/game). Lay the juice, it's worth it.

Play on: NY Yankees

SPORTS WAGERS

Los Angeles –106 over CHICAGO

2:20 PM EST. This is a pitching mismatch in the Dodgers favor and at this price must be played. Chad Billingsley’s skill level is approaching the elite ranks. His groundball rate of 53% is no fluke, as last year his rate was slightly lower at 50%. He also has an outstanding strikeout rate this season, as his 24 K’s in 22 frames will attest to. Billingsley has always shredded righthanders and he continues to improve against left-handers. Against the scorching Cardinals in his last start, Billingsley threw a three-hit, eight-inning shutout while striking out 11. Casey Coleman has walked four batters and struck out five in 10.2 frames this year. Nothing stands out for Coleman other than a high strand rate of 80% and that’s an unsustainable number. Coleman has allowed 13 hits in his 10.2 IP and two of those 13 knocks went over the fence. Coleman is a pitcher that puts the ball in play and hopes it’s hit right at someone. The oddsmakers have put Coleman on the same level as Billingsley and that is nothing short of ludicrous. Play: Los Angeles –103 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

SAN FRANCISCO +102 over Atlanta

Lefty Madison Bumgarner does not get the same fanfare as the other Giant starters and he’ll continue to pitch under the radar behind Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sánchez until his ERA gets straightened out. Bumgarner comes into this start with an 0-2 record and an ERA of 7.36 but don’t put too much emphasis on three games. Bumgarner is just 21 years old and he has nothing but upside. In September last year, Bumgarner put up eye-opening numbers in 32 innings and he also had a brilliant spring. This season he’s walked eight batters in 14 IP while striking out just seven and that’s totally out of character for him, as he walked just 26 batters all of last season in 111 frames. With a history of a strong groundball bias and very good command, there’s a lot to like here. We also love the fact that outside of Dan Uggla, who is 0-2 against Bumgarner, no other Brave has faced him before. Incidentally, Uggla is 1-18 (.056) against lefties this season. As a whole, the Braves are hitting .212 against lefties. Tommy Hanson is a quality starter, period and he’s somebody we’ll profile another time. This wager has nothing to do with wagering against Hanson. This is all about taking back a tag on an extremely undervalued pitcher that has a chance to dominate a weak-hitting lineup against southpaws. Lastly, the Braves are 4-7 on the road while the Giants have played just six home games and are 4-2. Play: San Francisco +102 (Risking 2 units).

Cleveland +111 over MINNESOTA

Fausto Carmona gets a start in pitcher-friendly Target Field against the lowest scoring team in the AL, a team against which he owns a decent career line. Carmona is a groundball specialist. His rate this season is 61% and that might be the best mark in baseball. He also has 20 K’s and has issued just seven walks in 20 innings of work. Carmona is showing the skills he displayed in his 2007 career year and he’s just 27 years old. The Indians are 13-6 and have been crushing left-handed pitching (AL-best .885 OPS). They’ll see a southpaw here in Brian Duensing. Duensing posted a 2.62 ERA and 1.20 WHIP last year. A favorable 82% LOB% produced his ERA. His base skills were middling at best and while the Twins insist he’ll remain in the rotation, his skills do not warrant such confidence. This season his strand rate is still high at 76% and once that normalizes his ERA will head south in a hurry. The banged-up Twins have yet to have a three-game winning streak. They haven’t yet put together any semblance of the type of offense and pitching that last year led them to a 53-28 (.654) record at home. They’ll be hard-pressed to score against Carmona and will come into this game with the inferior team and starter. Play: Cleveland +111 (Risking 2 units).

*In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).

SPORTS WAGERS

Buffalo +147 over PHILADELPHIA

If there’s anything we’ve learned in this year’s playoffs is that the team that gets better goaltending is going to win about 90% of the time. The Flyers made a positive switch from Sergei Bobrovsky to Brian Boucher and while Boucher has been good, you know that bad game is forthcoming soon. Ryan Miller has been both shaky and brilliant. Having said that, we’d much hitch our wagon onto Miller. The Flyers have had a slight territorial edge in this series but the Sabres can play toe-to-toe with this host and they’re on the verge of playing their best game of the series. This is the pivotal game five and in a contest in which anything can happen and either team has an equal chance of winning, we’ll gladly take back the tag with the more reliable Miller in net. Play: Buffalo +147 (Risking 2 units).

ANAHEIM -½ +125 over Nashville

Speaking of goaltending, the Preds are in trouble. Pekka Rinne looks like a lost child out there. He’s fighting every puck, he’s wandering into no man’s land and when you combine that with a shaken confidence on the road against a slew of sharp-shooting snipers, you have a big problem. The Ducks have to be feeling great. After losing game one and after losing Bobby Ryan for games three and four, the Ducks come home tied 2-2. They dominated last game in Nashville and won 6-3 and now bring that huge momentum back to the Pond. Even in game three, in which the Preds dominated play they had to hang on for dear life to win 4-3. The Ducks are a playoff team. They’ve been in this position many times before with a lot of success. The Preds have not. In every big game in their playoff history they come up on the short end. They have never won a playoff series and they’ve never responded well to big playoff games. They had their chance to go up 3-1 with Ryan out and the game in Nashville. The Preds responded by shaking in their Blue Suede Skates and getting blown out. Chances are they’ll bow out again. Play: Anaheim -½ +125 (Risking 2 units).

Matt Fargo

Cincinnati Reds vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals

After dropping the first game of their doubleheader against the National, St. Louis won the second game and carries that into a win in the series finale last night. The Cardinals got a two-hit gem from Kyle Lohse to complete the series win, their third straight after dropping their first three of the season. St. Louis is under .500 at home but momentum is building and just at the right time with a pivotal series on tap with the Reds. St. Louis is 6-1 in its last seven games after scoring five runs or more in its previous game. The Reds were able to salvage a game against the Diamondbacks and avoid the series sweep with a 74 win yesterday. The homestand was a forgettable one as Cincinnati went 2-5 and even though the last game resulted in a victory, there is not a lot of confidence heading to St. Louis. After allowing just seven total runs against San Diego in its previous series, the pitching staff surrendered 36 runs during the homestand. The Reds are 3-13 in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. The loss of Adam Wainwright before the season started was a huge blow to the Cardinals starting rotation but the addition of Kyle McClellan has eased that blow early on. He is 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.26 WHIP through three starts, all resulting in St. Louis victories. His last two starts were the best and both of those were on the road so he heads home for his second outing of the season. The Reds are 4-12 in their last 16 road games against right-handed starters. The Reds send Edinson Volquez to the hill and he has had a rough start to the season. He has only one quality outing in his first four starts and while that happened to come on the road, it came against the Padres, the worst hitting team in baseball. He faced the Cardinals twice in 2009 and allowed eight runs in 7.2 innings to jack up his ERA against St. Louis up to 4.98. Getting out of the first inning has been an issue and the Cardinals are 9-3 in their last 12 home games against right-handed starters. 3* St. Louis Cardinals

Craig Trapp

Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks
Play: Boston Celtics +3.5

Celtics games are not the pretty to watch but they find a way to keep it close and win it late. Both games of this series were won at the wire and think this game will be as well. NYK are so banged up with both Amare and Chanuney hurting. BOS keeps this close with great defense and covers this spread fairly easily.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on NY Mets -119

The Mets have struggled at home early but I like their chances tonight against the Arizona lefty Joe Saunders. The Mets have done their most damage against southpaw starters this season, scoring 5.8 runs per game off of them, and this is no recent trend. Dating back to last season, the Mets are 7-3 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter and 15-6 in their last 21 home games vs. a left-handed starter. They're likely licking their chops over Saunders, who's 0-2 with an ERA of 6.32 and a WHIP of 2.106. The Diamondbacks are 4-10 in Saunders' last 14 starts and 0-7 in his last 7 road starts. The D-backs are also just 20-48 in their last 68 road games. Pelfrey has struggled early but I'm not ready to turn my back on him yet. After all, the Mets are 4-1 in his last 5 starts as a favorite, 9-3 in his last 12 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 14-4 in his last 18 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Mets.