DAVID MALINSKY
NY METS over ARIZONA
The markets are reading this one the wrong way in shortening the line this morning. We think that both the Mets as a team and Michael Pelfrey as a starter are better than the 2011 numbers to date can show, and that means a good value point to get in the game against Joe Saunders.
Saunders had a game for the ages in his last outing, and unfortunately we took a losing Under ride along the way. He allowed 14 of the 28 Giants he faced to reach base, 12 on hits, yet got charged with only five runs over 6.2 frames. It is not easy to get credited for 20 outs when you only retire 14 batters, but double plays and some bad San Francisco base-running made him look much better than he was, and note that the double players are particularly out of character for a fly-ball pitcher. So he enters this game at an 0-2/6.32 that is actually even worse than those numbers can show, with 23 hits allowed over just 15.2 IP, and 10 W’s vs. only six K’s. He has three Wins in 16 starts wearing a Diamondback uniform, and his career arc is not a promising one.
Meanwhile Pelfrey is off to a slow start, but not an alarming one – he has had three road games already against division opponents, who know how to read his stuff well, and note that he had a 6.38 ERA in his division road starts LY. But it has been a 16-8/3.10 for him in new CitiField, where he has allowed only 10 HR’s over 238 IP and works his plenty of confidence. And note that despite losing 4-0 at Atlanta on Saturday his stuff was “on” – a 3:1 K to W ratio and 9:1 ground-out to fly-out ratio got negated by the kind of game a ground-baller can have, when singles find their way through the infield (10 of the 11 Atlanta hits were singles, the other a 2B). Meanwhile the team behind him got a confidence-boosting rout last night, with the return of Jason Bay adding a quick spark, and in facing a left-hander for the third time in four days they will be even more locked in against the limited offerings of Saunders.
SEAN MURPHY
Colorado Rockies @ Florida Marlins
PICK: Florida Marlins
The Marlins are quietly one of the hottest teams in baseball right now. They're coming off a three-game sweep of the Pirates (who have actually been a tough out on the road this season), and have now won six of their last seven games overall.
The Rockies got off to an exceptional start, but have since cooled off slightly, dropping three of their last five games overall. Manager Jim Tracy has admitted that his team isn't firing on all cylinders right now.
Colorado is still in uncharted territory. They've started the year 7-1 on the road - keep in mind, they went 4-8 over their first 12 road games last year. The Rockies have traditionally been a poor play away from Coors Field.
Jhoulys Chacin will get the call for the visiting Rockies on Friday. His numbers jump off the page, as he's 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through three starts this season. However, it's worth noting that most of his success has come at Coors Field. In his lone road start, Chacin was tagged for seven hits and four earned runs while striking out only three and walking two in six innings against the Pirates.
Note that Chacin started last season strong as well, winning his first two starts. The Rockies would lose six of his next seven outings, however.
The Marlins will counter with Anibal Sanchez. He's winless with a 5.51 ERA and 2.02 WHIP through three starts this season, but I believe a positive correction is in order. It's not as if Sanchez has been all that bad. He turned in one awful effort in Houston, and that is skewing his overall stats. In his last outing, he pitched effectively over six innings against a potent Phillies lineup, allowing just six hits and two earned runs. While he issued four walks in that game, he still managed to throw 71 of his 113 pitches for strikes.
Sanchez was involved in a wild 9-8 Marlins win in his lone start against the Rockies last season. He actually pitched quite well in that game, allowing only two earned runs over six innings. Note that the Marlins are a perfect 2-0 in his two career outings against Colorado.
The Marlins re-stocked their bullpen in the offseason, and it's paid off so far in 2011, as their relievers have recorded a collective 1.63 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Thanks to two solid outings from Ricky Nolasco and Josh Johnson in their series against the Pirates, their 'pen remains relatively fresh heading into this game.
Don't get caught admiring the Rockies 10-run outburst against the Giants on Wednesday. They've actually tailed off from an offensive standpoint lately. Note that Carlos Gonzalez is mired in a 8-for-40 (.200) slump and has just one home run this season after hitting 34 last year. Todd Helton also has just one home run this year, and is 4-for-15 (.267) over his last five games.
Meanwhile, the Marlins have scored 38 runs over their last seven games (5.4 rpg), and they've done it despite getting very little production from Hanley Ramirez.
Florida is 8-5 in 13 meetings in this series dating back to the start of 2009, including 5-2 here at home. They continue to fly under the radar - while the Rockies have gotten all the press, the Marlins are just 1.5 games behind them in the N.L. standings. Take Florida
WUNDERDOG
Cincinnati at St. Louis
Pick: Under 8
The Cardinals' rotation took a hit when Adam Wainwright was lost for the season, but they have been tough despite the loss. Over their last six games, they had one hiccup vs. the Nationals allowing 8 runs, but in the other five they have allowed a total of just 9 runs. The Reds have played a lot at home this season with just six of their first 19 games coming on the road, so after a long home stand the Reds' hitters may take a day or so to adjust. The Reds have not fared well offensively after scoring 5+ runs in their previous game as they have turned in a 19-7-1 mark to the UNDER following the offensive effort. The Cards are now 10-3 at home to the UNDER in their last 13 vs. a winning team, including 8-2 facing a right hander. The UNDER is the call.
Jack Jones
Cleveland Indians +108
I'll take the Cleveland Indians Friday against the short-handed Minnesota Twins. Cleveland (13-6) is off to its best 19-game start since opening 14-5 in 1999. Fausto Carmona has been nearly untouchable in his last three starts, going 1-1 with a 1.25 ERA. He should continue to dominate against a Minnesota Twins team that has scored an MLB-low 57 runs this season. Joe Mauer (leg weakness) is on the disabled list and Justin Morneau (flu) and Delmon Young (ribs) are both questionable for the series opener.
The Indians have scored an AL-best 99 runs this season. Cleveland is hitting .269 and scoring 5.2 RPG this season. The Indians own a 5-2 record against left-handed starts, hitting .327 and scoring 6.9 RPG. Minnesota is hitting .233 and scoring 3.0 RPG, including .227 and 2.9 RPG against right-handed starters. In his last two starts against Minnesota, Carmona has only allowed 2 earned runs and 12 base runners in 14 2/3 innings for a 1.23 ERA and 0.818 WHIP. Bet the Indians Friday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on New York Mets -119
The Mets are slow out of the gate but they're in a good spot against an Arizona team that has struggled away from home. The Diamondbacks are a lowly 20-45 in their last 65 games as a road underdog, including 0-7 in Saunders' last 7 starts as a road underdog. The Mets are 9-3 in Pelfrey's last 12 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 15-6 in their last 21 home games versus lefty starters. Expect New York to continue its solid production against lefties on its way to a win tonight.
Rocketman
Arizona D-Backs vs. New York Mets
Play: Arizona D-Backs
NY Mets are 2-8 at home this year. Arizona has won 3 of their last 4 games overall. NY Mets have lost 9 of their last 11 overall. Arizona bullpen has a 1.61 ERA on the road this season. NY Mets have a 5.46 ERA at home this year. Joe Saunders has a 3.00 ERA on the road this season. Mike Pelfrey is 0-2 with a 9.72 ERA overall this year and 0-1 with a 9.49 ERA his last 3 starts. Arizona is 10-3 overall vs NY Mets the past 3 years. Pelfrey is 0-5 with a 6.69 ERA overall vs Arizona since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Arizona tonight!
Info Plays
3* Celtics/Knicks UNDER 191.5
Reasons why Celtics/Knicks go under:
1) We feel the oddsmakers have once again set the total to high for these two teams. You already know the Celtics are going to get at it defensively, but the Knicks are playing very well on that side of the ball as well, and will only play better in game 3 with Amare Stoudemire back on the floor.
2) The Celtics are 12-4 UNDER in road games off a home win this season, and a perfect 8-0 UNDER in road games after playing 3 consecutive games as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.
3) The Knicks are 18-9 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season, and are a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Bob Wingerter
Cincinnati Reds vs. St.Louis Cardinals
Play: St.Louis Cardinals
Cardinals RH Kyle McClellan (2-0, 1.89 ERA) vs. Reds RH Edinson Volquez (2-0, 6.75 ERA). McClellan’s transition to the starting rotation could not be going any better for St. Louis, which was scrambling to fill the hole left by Adam Wainwright’s injury in spring training. McClellan has yet to allow more than two runs in an outing and is coming off a one run, seven-inning win at the Los Angeles Dodgers last Saturday. The 26-year-old has made 19 career relief appearances against the Reds, posting a 2.95 ERA in 18 1/3 total innings. Volquez can’t seem to get out of his own way at the start of games, allowing 13 of his 17 earned runs this season in the first inning. The Dominican righthander can trace his problems back to a lack of command that has caused him to issue 16 walks in 22 2/3 total innings. Volquez is 1-1 with a 4.98 ERA in four starts against the Cardinals and has had particular trouble with Pujols, surrendering two home runs and five RBIs in seven at-bats.
Dave Price
1 Unit on KC Royals +158
The Rangers are struggling without Josh Hamilton in the lineup, having lost 6 of their last 8. The Royals, meanwhile, have won 8 of their last 12. KC is showing solid value tonight considering the way it has crushed lefty starters this season. Rangers lefty Derek Holland was hit hard by the Yankees last time out and now faces a Royals club batting .276 and scoring 7.6 runs per game against southpaw starters this season. The Royals are 9-4 in their last 13 games as an underdog while the Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a favorite. Take the Royals.
BIG AL
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: New York Yankees
Yankee ace CC Sabathia is not normally known as a hard luck starter, seeing that the big lefthander has won 21 games, garnered an AL Cy Young award (in 2007), been an All-Star multiple times, and has a World Series ring with the Yankees in 2009. But so far in 2011, 'hard-luck' could be Sabathia's nickname. The Yanks feel that Sabathia has pitched well enough to be 4-0, yet the former Cleveland and Milwaukee ace does not have a single victory to show for his very strong efforts which have so far resulted in a 2.52 ERA and 23 strikeouts in 25 innings. The Yankee bullpen was to blame for his last no-decision as Sabathia left the game with a lead after 6 1/3 innings against the AL Champion Rangers. Enter the Orioles, who Sabathia may have just ordered up on a platter himself if he had to choose one team that could almost guarantee him his first 'W', as the 290 lb veteran southpaw is about as dominant against Baltimore as any pitcher can be against any opponent. In 20 career starts against the O's, Sabathia is 14-2 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.10 WHIP and in 10 starts at Camden Yards, he is even more dominant, going 8-1 with a 2.97 ERA. His hard-luck moniker for 2011 should disappear tonight in Baltimore. Take the Yankees.
RJ Robbins
Reds vs. Cardinals
Play: Under 8
The Reds and Cardinals start a series tonight in St. Louis and the Winner will be in 1st place. Reds starter Edinson Volquez is 3-1 with a ERA over 6 will be on the mound for the Reds while Klye McClellan is on the mound for the Red Birds is 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA. These two teams don't like each other. Look for a play-off atmosphere. The UNDER is 10-3 the last 3 years playing in St. Louis.
Tony George
Washington Nats +105
Like the Nats to open the series with Pitt to get the win as a slight dog tonight. Washington has turned it around somewhat and send Hernandez to toe the rubber tonight and his ERA on the year is a solid 2.88. I like them in a low scoring one tonight to get the win on the road. Both bullpens are even more or less, so I like the starter to keep the Nats in it. A low scoring game as neither team lighting up the plate so pitching is a KEY in a scenario like this.