SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Miami (0-2 SU and ATS) at Boston (2-0 SU and ATS)
The Heat return home to American Airlines Arena down 2-0 and in a must-win situation when they face the Celtics in Game 3 of this best-of-7 series.
Miami entered Game 2 with a built-in advantage and a shot at stealing home court, with the Celts’ Kevin Garnett sitting out due to a one-game suspension incurred in Boston’s 85-76 Game 1 victory. But the Heat went on an eight-minute scoring drought in the second quarter, getting outscored 21-0 in that span on the way to getting hammered 106-77 as a one-point road underdog. Miami shot just 38.2 percent (29 of 76), even after hitting 9 of 18 from 3-point range.
Dwyane Wade actually fared well for the Heat, scoring 29 points on 11-for-18 shooting, but none of his teammates mustered more than 13 points.
Boston outscored Miami over the middle two quarters 62-36 to win and cover again, after entering the playoffs on a 3-7 SU and ATS purge. Ray Allen led the way with 25 points, going a torrid 7 of 9 from long distance, and Glen Davis made up for Garnett’s absence with 23 points and eight rebounds. The C’s also killed Miami on the boards, 50-33.
Miami went 24-17 SU (18-22-1 ATS) at home in the regular season, averaging 96.8 ppg on 45.6 percent shooting, while allowing 93.3 ppg on 44.3 percent shooting. Boston, meanwhile, was a sturdy 26-15 on the highway (21-19-1 ATS), averaging 98.1 ppg on 47.6 percent shooting and giving up 94.2 ppg on 44.1 percent shooting.
Boston has owned this rivalry lately, winning seven in a row (5-2 ATS) and 13 of the last 14 (10-4 ATS), and the Celts are 7-1 ATS on their last eight trips to South Beach. The favorite has covered in 10 of the last 12 meetings, and the road team is 9-5 ATS in the last 14 contests. The SU winner has covered the number in 10 of the last 12 clashes. Also, the SU winner is on a 9-0 ATS roll in Miami’s last nine postseason affairs and is 12-3-1 ATS in Boston’s last 16 playoff outings.
The Heat are on a handful of ATS slides, including 2-5 overall, 3-9-1 ATS in opening-round playoff games (1-5 last six), 1-5-1 at home, 2-5 as a postseason chalk and 11-24 at home against teams with a winning road record. The only upside: a 9-1 ATS mark in their last 10 Friday starts.
The Celts are a mixed bag at the betting window, carrying positive ATS streaks of 4-0 in first-round games, 4-1 against winning teams, 8-2-1 as a pup and 53-26-2 as a road underdog, along with negative ATS runs of 1-6 after a SU win and 1-5 after a spread cover.
Miami is on “over” strings of 5-2 overall, 5-1 after a SU loss, 9-4 at home, 4-1 giving points and 6-2 against winning teams, but the under for the Heat is on stretches of 4-0 as a playoff chalk, 9-1 after a two-day break and 5-2 in first-round games. Boston holds “over” streaks of 8-3 overall, 5-1 in first-round playoff games, 4-1 as a ‘dog and 21-10-1 going on two days’ rest, though the Celts also own “under” rolls of 11-4 after a SU win and 9-4 after a spread-cover.
Finally, the total has cleared the posted price in six of the last eight meetings between these rivals, with Game 2 barely getting past the 182.5 total, after Game 1 went below the 184-point price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
WESTERN CONFERENCE
San Antonio (1-1 SU and ATS) at Dallas (1-1 SU and ATS)
The second-seeded Mavericks aim to bounce back from a Game 2 beatdown when they make the short in-state trip to the AT&T Center to face the Spurs.
San Antonio outscored Dallas in three of four quarters Wednesday, rolling to a 102-88 victory as a three-point road pup, following a 100-94 loss getting 4½ points in the series opener. The Spurs outshot the Mavs by almost 12 percent, hitting 48.2 percent from the floor (40 of 83) and allowing just 36.5 percent shooting (31 of 85). Tim Duncan had a double-double of 25 points and 17 boards, and Manu Ginobili added 23 points.
Beyond its shooting, Dallas’ major shortfall in Game 2 was on the glass, collecting 42 rebounds while allowing the Spurs to grab 51. Not even 95 percent free-throw shooting (19 of 20) could save the Mavs, who were paced by Jason Terry (27 points) and Dirk Nowitzki (24 points, 10 rebounds).
San Antonio was 29-12 SU (24-16-1 ATS) in regular-season action at home, outscoring visitors by more than eight ppg (105.5-97.1) and outshooting them 49.2 percent to 46.1 percent. Dallas went 27-14 SU and a solid 26-15 ATS on the highway, far better than its dismal 11-29-1 home ATS mark in the regular season, with the Mavs averaging 102.2 ppg on 46.8 percent shooting and yielding 99.0 ppg on 45.2 percent shooting.
These instate rivals also met in the first round last year, with Dallas rolling to a 4-1 series victory while also going 4-1 ATS. The Mavs are 7-2 ATS in the last nine clashes, including 4-2 SU and ATS this year while winning and cashing in four of the last five meetings, including the regular-season finale at home. The host is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 matchups, but Dallas is 12-4 ATS on its last 16 trips to San Anton. Also, the SU winner is on a 15-1 ATS tear.
The Spurs are on ATS upswings of 19-8 overall, 10-1 after a road trip of seven or more days, 8-2 at home, 7-2 after a day off and 19-6-2 as a playoff chalk, though they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine first-round games (1-4 last five, all against Dallas).
The Mavericks are 9-3 SU and ATS in their last 12 starts overall, including a current 6-1 SU and ATS surge, and they are on further pointspread upticks of 5-0 on the highway, 6-1 after a day off, 5-1 as a road pup, 6-2 in first-round playoff games and 5-2-1 inside the Southwest Division. However, they are 1-4 ATS in their last five starts as a playoff ‘dog.
San Antonio is on “under” upticks of 3-1-1 overall, 4-1-1 against winning teams and 15-7 after a spread-cover, but the over for the Spurs is on surges of 5-0 at home, 4-0 as a home chalk and 4-0 on Friday. Dallas is on under rolls of 9-4-1 overall, 3-0-1 in the Southwest Division and 4-1 as an underdog.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 4-1-1 in this year’s six meetings (1-1 in this playoff series), but the over is 4-1 in the last five clashes in San Antonio, and in last year’s playoff series, the total cleared the posted price in four of the five contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO
Denver (1-1 SU and ATS) at Utah (1-1 SU and ATS)
After grabbing Game 2 in Denver, the Jazz will look to take a 2-1 advantage when they meet the Nuggets inside EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City for Game 3 of this best-of-7 Western Conference opening round series.
Utah fell 126-113 in Game 1 on Saturday, failing as a 5 ½-point underdog, but the Jazz got a huge 33-point, 14-assist game from Deron Williams in a 114-11 Game 2 victory in Denver on Monday, pulling off the upset as six-point favorites. They got 20 points from Carlos Boozer, 18 from Paul Milsap and 17 from C.J. Miles as the Jazz shot 52.9 percent from the floor.
Denver was just 19-22 (15-21-5 ATS) on the road this season and went just 2-6 (1-6-1 ATS) in its final eight on the highway. Utah was 32-9 (26-13-2 ATS) at home and closed by winning 10 of its last 11 in Salt Lake City (8-3 ATS).
The Jazz were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs a season ago by the Lakers in five games (3-2 ATS). They’re in the postseason for the fourth consecutive year, but have lost four of their last six first-round series.
The Lakers also took out the Nuggets on their way to the NBA title, topping Denver in six games (3-3 ATS) in the Western Conference Finals. Prior to meeting Los Angeles, the Nuggets had won eight of 10 playoff contests in the first two rounds – eliminating New Orleans and Dallas – while going 10-0 ATS. This is Denver’s sixth consecutive playoff appearance after a nine-year drought from 1995-2003.
The Nuggets have won four of six (3-1-2 ATS) in the season series and split in Utah, including a 105-95 win in January as 7 ½-point pups and then falling 116-106 in February, pushing as 10-point underdogs. The Nuggets have won six of the last nine clashes while going 7-1-2 ATS in the last 10. Also, the home team is 10-2 (6-4-2 ATS) in the last 12 matchups between these two, and the chalk is 24-11-3 in the last 38.
Denver is on ATS skids of 1-6-1 on the road, 1-4-2 as an underdog, 1-4 on Friday and 5-12-1 overall, but it is on positive ATS streaks of 6-1 as a playoff underdog, 21-8-1 after three or more days off and 4-0-1 after a non-cover. The Jazz are just 1-5 ATS in their last six Friday games and 1-4 ATS in their last five after a spread-cover, but they are on a plethora of ATS streaks, including 23-9-2 at home, 32-15-3 overall, 8-3 as a home favorite, 21-7-1 as a chalk of up to 4 ½ points and 14-6 after three or more days off.
The Nuggets have topped the total in four straight overall, six of eight against Northwest Division teams and four of five after three or more days off, but they are on “under” streaks of 4-1 on the road, 37-17 as underdogs, and 21-6 as playoff ‘dogs. Utah has gone “over” the total in 20 of 26 against Northwest Division teams and four straight against winning teams, but it is on “under” runs of 5-0-1 after a straight-up win, 8-3 on Friday and 5-2-1 as a favorite.
In this rivalry, the “over” is 4-0 in the last four meetings, but the “under” has cashed in four of the last five in Utah.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (10-5) at San Francisco (8-7)
The Giants return home from a disastrous N.L. West road trip, and they’ll give the ball to ace Tim Lincecum (3-0, 0.90 ERA) while the Cardinals counter with rookie lefty Jaime Garcia (1-0, 0.69) in the opener of a weekend series at AT&T Park.
St. Louis opened a six-game road trip against N.L. West teams by taking two of three in Arizona, capped by Wednesday’s 9-4 victory over the Diamondbacks. The Cardinals have won three of their last four games, tallying 25 runs in the process. They’re also on positive surges of 6-2 against right-handed starters, 12-5 after a day off, 39-19 in the opener of a series and 12-4 on Friday, but despite their success in Arizona, they’ve lost five of seven to N.L. West foes.
San Francisco departed for a six-game road trip to Los Angeles and San Diego with a 7-2 record but return home just one game over .500 after losing five of the six games, including getting swept by the Padres to start this week. The Giants offense, which scored 17 runs in the first two games of the trip and was averaging 6.2 runs through the first 11 contests, has generated a combined five runs in their last four games (all losses). Bruce Bochy’s squad has also dropped seven of 10 after an off day and nine of 13 to left-handed starters, but the team is on positive streaks of 8-2 at home and 6-1 against the N.L. Central.
The Giants barely won the season series from St. Louis last year, taking four of seven meetings (two of three at home), and San Francisco is 6-3 in the last nine clashes.
Garcia has been outstanding in his first two starts of 2010, allowing a total of one run, five hits and five walks while striking out 10 in 13 innings. He beat the Brewers 7-1 on the road in his debut, but got a no-decision in Saturday’s 20-inning marathon against the Mets, giving up a single hit in seven innings with St. Louis eventually losing 2-1. Garcia’s only experience prior to this season came in 2008 with the Cardinals, when he pitched in 10 games (one start), going 1-1 with a 5.63 ERA. The 23-year-old has never faced the Giants.
Lincecum, the two-team reigning N.L. Cy Young winner, is already in midseason form, giving up just two runs and 13 hits over 20 innings with 24 strikeouts against just three walks. He pitched the Giants to their only victory on their just-completed road trip, blanking the Dodgers on four hits in six innings Saturday en route to a 9-0 win.
San Francisco has had tremendous success with Lincecum pitching, as they’re 4-0 in his last four starts overall (all multi-run wins), 21-8 in his last 29 at home, 7-3 in his last 10 against the N.L. Central and 16-5 in his last 21 when opening a series.
Lincecum is 4-0 with a 1.61 ERA in four career starts against the Cardinals, giving up just five runs in 28 innings (no runs in the last two starts covering 16 innings). Last year, the lanky right-hander faced the Redbirds once and pitched a complete-game, two-hit shutout in St. Louis, walking none and striking out eight in a 10-0 win.
The Cardinals topped the total in their final two games at Arizona, but they remain on “under” runs of 9-4 overall, 5-1 on Friday and 4-0 in series openers. The Giants also carry “under” trends of 4-0 overall, 5-2 against lefty starters and 18-7-3 versus the N.L. Central. However, San Francisco is also on “over” surges of 5-0 after a day off, 5-1-1 at home, 5-1-1 in series openers and 5-1 on Friday, and with Lincecum on the hill, the “over” is on stretches of 3-0-1 overall, 4-0 after five days off and 3-1-1 in series openers.
Finally, nine of the last 13 battles between these teams, including five of the last six in San Francisco, have jumped over the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (11-4) at L.A. Angels (8-9)
Just a week after completing a three-game series against each other in the Bronx, the Yankees and Angels hook up again, this time at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, with Ervin Santana (1-2, 4.35) set to toe the slab for the hosts opposite A.J. Burnett (2-0, 2.37).
New York’s six-game overall and four-game road winning streaks came to a halt with Thursday afternoon’s 4-2 loss at Oakland. Despite the setback, the Yankees are still 6-3 as a visitor this season, and the defending champs are on further runs of 63-25 overall dating to 2009 (playoffs included), 13-4 against the A.L. West, 55-20 against right-handed starters and 22-9 on Friday.
Los Angeles started this week by splitting four home games with the Tigers, winning the first two contests before suffering a pair of one-run losses on Wednesday (4-3) and Thursday (5-4). Still, the Angels remain on upticks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 against the A.L. East and 7-3 on Friday.
The Yankees took two of three from L.A. in the Bronx two weeks ago, including a 7-5 victory over Santana in the series opener on April 13. New York has won eight of the last 11 overall clashes with the Angels, taking four of six in last year’s American League Championship Series. However, the Halos have won 19 of the 26 meetings in Anaheim.
Burnett has delivered back-to-back quality starts, following up a two-run, six-hit, seven-inning effort at Tampa Bay on April 17 with a no-run, six-hit, seven-inning performance at home against the Rangers on Saturday. The Yankees won both games by identical 7-3 scores, and they’re 9-2 in his last 11 starts overall and 4-1 in his last five on Friday. Also, since joining New York prior to last season, Burnett is 9-6 with a 4.50 ERA in 19 regular-season road starts.
Burnett faced the Angels twice in the regular season last year, allowing six runs on 15 hits in 12 2/3 innings (4.26 ERA), with New York winning both games (one home, one road). The veteran right-hander also got two no-decisions against L.A. in the ALCS, surrendering eight runs on 11 hits in 12 1/3 innings (5.84 ERA), and the Yankees won 4-3 at home and lost 7-6 on the road. Including the postseason, Burnett is 2-2 with a 4.73 in eight starts against the Angels, including 1-2 with a 5.08 ERA in five games in Anaheim.
Five days after getting roughed up at Yankee Stadium, Santana cruised to a complete-game 3-1 win in Toronto on Sunday, yielding just the single run on four hits with no walks and six strikeouts. In his first home game this year, Santana gave up four runs in six innings of a 4-2 loss to the Twins. With the right-hander on the bump, the Halos are on runs of 5-2 against the A.L. East, 7-2 on Friday and 12-4 in series openers, but they’ve lost seven of his last 10 outings overall and four of his last five at home.
The Angels are also just 1-4 in Santana’s last five starts against the Yankees, against whom the 27-year-old is 5-3 with a 5.50 ERA in nine games. In the April 13 contest in New York, he gave up five runs on eight hits and five walks in 5 2/3 innings. In his last three outings against the Yanks, Santana has surrendered 16 runs (14 earned) over 18 innings (7.00 ERA), with L.A. losing all three by a combined score of 20-11.
New York has stayed under the total in six of its last eight overall (all against the A.L. West), but it is otherwise on “over” runs of 35-18-2 on the road and 4-1 in series openers. Also, the over is 5-0 in Burnett’s last five starts overall and 5-0 in his last five road efforts, but the under has cashed in each of Burnett’s last six Friday outings.
It’s been all “unders” lately for the Angels, including 37-17-3 overall, 4-1 against the A.L. East, 23-11-2 versus right-handed starters, 6-2 on Friday, 7-3 overall with Santana pitching and 5-2-1 when Santana works on Friday. Also, the under is 8-4-1 in the last 13 Angels-Yankees battles following a 6-0 “over” surge in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
DUNKEL INDEX
Denver at Utah
The Jazz look to build on their 6-1-1 ATS record in their last 8 playoff games as favorite between 1 and 4 1/2 points. Utah is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Jazz favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Utah (-2)
Game 501-502: Boston at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 121.766; Miami 119.228
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 2 1/2; 179
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 4; 182
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+4); Under
Game 503-504: Dallas at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 119.455; San Antonio 128.600
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 9; 190
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 3; 193 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3); Under
Game 505-506: Denver at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 117.356; Utah 125.115
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 8; 211
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 2; 216
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-2); Under
MLB
NY Yankees at LA Angels
The Yankees look to take advantage of an LA team that is 1-4 in Ervin Santana's last 5 home starts. New York is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-140)
Game 901-902: LA Dodgers at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Haeger) 14.918; Washington (Atilano) 14.598
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-130); 10
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-130); Over
Game 903-904: Atlanta at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Kawakami) 14.353; NY Mets (Maine) 15.897
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+120); Under
Game 905-906: San Diego at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Correia) 15.171; Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.631
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-120); Over
Game 907-908: Pittsburgh at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 13.423; Houston (Oswalt) 14.588
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-165); Under
Game 909-910: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Dempster) 15.157; Milwaukee (Suppan) 15.292
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+105); Over
Game 911-912: Florida at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 15.830; Colorado (Smith) 15.326
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+100); Over
Game 913-914: Philadelphia at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 14.810; Arizona (Benson) 14.826
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-185); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+165); Over
Game 915-916: St. Louis at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Garcia) 15.247; San Francisco (Lincecum) 16.535
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-170); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-170); Over
Game 917-918: Toronto at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Cecil) 15.502; Tampa Bay (Garza) 16.918
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-235); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-235); Under
Game 919-920: Baltimore at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Guthrie) 13.950; Boston (Lester) 15.313
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-230); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-230); Over
Game 921-922: Detroit at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 15.173; Texas (Feldman) 15.141
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+105); Over
Game 923-924: Minnesota at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Pavano) 15.841; Kansas City (Meche) 15.633
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-145); Over
Game 925-926: Seattle at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 14.735; White Sox (Floyd) 15.390
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-125); Under
Game 927-928: Cleveland at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Westbrook) 15.447; Oakland (Duchscherer) 15.091
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+130); Under
Game 929-930: NY Yankees at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.420; LA Angels (Santana) 15.290
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-140); Under
NHL
Boston at Buffalo
The Sabres look to stay alive and build on their 4-1 record in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Buffalo is the pick (-155) according to Dunkel, which has the Sabres favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-155)
Game 65-66: Boston at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 12.625; Buffalo 12.633
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-155); 5
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-155); Under
Game 67-68: Montreal at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.361; Washington 11.202
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-350); 6
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+290); Over
Game 69-70: Los Angeles at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 10.880; Vancouver 12.476
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-180); Under
Game 71-72: Detroit at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.460; Phoenix 12.560
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+110); Over
Marc Lawrence
San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: San Diego Padres
The Padres open a three game series with the Reds in Cincinnati Friday evening when Kevin Corriea takes on Johnny Cueto. With Corriea in solid KW form and 5-2 in his career team starts in this series, and Cueto 4-9 in his career team starts in April - including 1-5 at home - we'll puppy up with the Padres here tonight.
Steve Merril
San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati's bats awakened in their series win over Los Angeles. The Reds scored a whopping 25 runs in taking two of three from the Dodgers. Johnny Cueto (0-0, 5.06 ERA) gets the start tonight; he was solid in his only home start against the Cardinals and he should continue to pitch strong tonight. Cueto has had success against San Diego in the past, striking out 10 in a no decision Reds victory back in 2008. Scott Hairston (0-3), Everth Cabrera (0-3) and David Eckstein (0-2) have yet to get a hit off the righty. San Diego is 2-4 on the road hitting just .218 while averaging only 3.2 runs per game. They are hitting slightly over .230 the past seven games, despite winning six of those seven games. San Diego’s Kevin Correia is 2-1 with a 3.11 ERA, but lost his only road outing of the season. Correia gave up four runs and seven hits in six innings of work in Arizona. He owns a 4.21 ERA against the Reds in seven starts, and last year, Correia won a pair of close games against Cincinnati. But the Reds offense wasn't as good then as they are now. Cincinnati hits .362 as a team against Correia with Joey Votto (4-12), Scott Rolen (4-5), Ramon Hernandez (2-4), Laynce Nix (2-4), Jonny Gomes (1-2), Ryan Hanigan (1-2) and Chris Dickerson (1-2) all doing the best. The Reds are averaging 5 runs per game at home, and with a resurgent Cueto on the mound for Cincinnati, we see the Reds putting an end to San Diego’s 6-game winning streak.
Cajun Sports
New York Yankees vs. LAA Angels
Play: LAA Angels
The Yankees travel to Anaheim for a weekend series against the host Angels with the opening game of this three-game set Friday night and the first pitch at 10:05PM EST. The Yankees easily disposed of this Angels team in last year’s playoffs on their way to another World Championship but the regular season was much different especially the games played at Angels Stadium in Anaheim where LA was 4-2 in six meetings. New York will send AJ Burnett to the bump with his 2-0 record and ERA of 2.37 on the season. Burnett is 1-0 on the road this year but his ERA jumps more than one run per start to 3.75 and another run to 4.75 (2-2 record) in six career starts versus LA. Burnett is 2-10 (-9.8 units) in road games versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game the last 3 seasons and 11-31 (-20.4 units) in road games when working on 5 or 6 days rest since 1997. The Angels will hang their hopes on Ervin Santana who is 1-2 on the year with a 4.35 ERA. Santana has a 5-3 career mark versus the boys from Gotham with an ERA of 5.50. One of his losses this season came back on April 13th in New York pitching 5.7 innings giving up five earned runs, five walks and seven strikeouts in a 7 to 5 loss to the Yankees. He rebounded in his last start going nine innings giving up one earned run no walks and striking out six versus the Blue Jays as the Angels won 3 to 1 north of the border. LA is 104-76 (+24.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record the last 3 seasons, 31-22 (+15.6 Units) as an underdog of +100 to +150 the last 2 seasons and 12-3 (+10.6 Units) as a home underdog of +100 to +125 the last 2 seasons. Ervin Santana is 7-1 (+8.3 Units) as an underdog of +100 to +150 the last 2 seasons. A check of the database reveals a league-wide system that is active for tonight’s contest. Play ON MLB AL home teams in this price range when they have a batting average of .265 or worse facing a starter whose ERA is 3.20 or better with a starting pitcher who has given up an average of one or more homeruns per start. These home teams are 30-12 for 71.4 percent winners and have won 19.3 units since 1997. We are going to back the home team here as the Angels hand the boys from Gotham their second loss in a row.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Los Angeles Angels 5 New York Yankees 3
Rob Vinciletti
Cleveland Indians vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Oakland Athletics
Oakland fits a nice system here tonight that plays on home favorites off a home dog win at +140 or higher, if they scored 4 or less runs and the opponent tonight is off a road game. This system has cahed over 80% over the past few seasons. Oakland is also 4-0 as a home favorite in this range this season and has taken 6 of the last here vs the Tribe. Cleveland is 2-6 vs winning teams this year. Oakland also has a nice pitching adavantage with Duchscherer over Westbrook. Duchscherer has gone 12 innings and allowed just 2 runs vs Cleveland. Westbrook has not been effective on the road allowing 8 earned runs in 9 innings. Look for Oakland to get game 1 tonight.
Jim Feist
Florida Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Florida Marlins
Reason: Colorado has had a tough week, losing 2 of 3 at Atlanta and Washington. This is their first home game after that long trip, but they had to play yesterday, 2,400 miles away in Washington with no day off. Florida is competitive on the road and goes with Ricky Nolasco (3.74 ERA), who is 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA against the Rockies. You can't allow free passes in a park like Coors Field, but Colorado lefty Greg Smith has walked 11 in 17 innings. Play the Marlins.
David Chan
Boston @ Miami
Pick: Boston +4
Tuesday’s Game 2 line movement was really strange. The Celtics opened -2 and at -1.5 my clients and I piled on with an oversized “Game of the Week” selection. The game mostly closed Celtics -1.
Forget that the Celts won by 29. The implication in the line was that, on a neutral floor, Miami would be a couple points better than Boston. That was confusing to say the least. OK, everyone knew Kevin Garnett was sitting out. But Boston had not only taken Game 1, Boston won all three regular season meetings between the two clubs. So the Heat, coming in, were 0-4 SU and somehow the “better team”.
Here we are again. Giving up 4 points implies that the market thinks Miami is still fractionally better than the Celtics—even as Kevin Garnett returns. There is no basis for this. Might Miami win this game? Of course. Is it reasonable to believe they’ll win it? Perhaps. The team is “desperate” (or some such word). But is it rational to take the Heat here laying four points given that now, in five tries, they haven’t beaten the Celtics all year? Absolutely not. I don’t claim that Miami’s a bad team, but how can we suddenly ask them to do something they’ve failed at five times this year? We can’t.
EZWINNERS
Boston Red Sox -225
You have to like the Sox in this situation even at a very high price. Boston's starting pitcher Jon Lester is off to a rough start to the season, but I expect him to pitch very well in this outing. Lester is a perfect 10-0 in twelve career starts against Baltimore with an ERA of only 2.39. Baltimore sends Jeremy Guthrie to the mound for this start and Guthrie has pitched pretty well this season, but the O's just don't give him any run support. Boston has been a bad match up for Guthrie in the past as he is just 1-5 with an ERA of 4.74 in eleven career starts against the Red Sox. Boston has dominated this series against Baltimore winning twelve out of the last thirteen meetings between these two teams. I look for that dominance to continue. Play on Boston preferably in a parlay!
James Patrick Sports
Nuggets vs. Jazz
Denver and Utah have had some high scoring affairs and we look for another in Game #3 action from Salt Lake City as we note that all teams in which the game total is greater than or equal to (200), featuring extremely well rested teams that are playing (3) or less games in a (10) day period, and the game is a Friday Night Tip Off, have gone Over the Total (33-9) ATS (78.6 %). Big Game James Patrick's selection in Friday NBA Playoff action is Nuggets - Jazz Over the Total.
JR O'Donnell
BUF / BOS Under 5
Just Flat Out melting the ice with a 65% NHL J Run! Let's keep it going here with a solid total in Buffalo. Under 5- 120 grabs our attention as these 2 net minders have and will come up big Friday. Elimination games go under at a 60% rate and these 2 will be jumping on mistakes to score. Buffalo has their backs to wall down (3-1) and need a mistake free game. We are by no means stats and trends players, but the stats tonight all = Under . Under is on a smooth 10-2 run in Buffalo and and we are moving all in on Under 5 tonight as this is a solid J Bomb on the Ice.
Bobby Maxwell
Denver at UTAH (-2')
Dropped a tough on one Thursday with the Dodgers and my FREE play run now sits at 84-63-3. Tonight I have a comp winner coming on the NBA hardwood as I go with the Jazz at home to get the best of the Nuggets.
The more I see of Utah guard Deron Williams, the more I think he is the best point guard in the NBA. He is big and strong enough to post up, he’s got a damn good outside shot, and he can turn on the jets and blow by a defender and get to the rim. He’s caused the Nuggets fits in the first two games and was the key to Utah’s Game 2 win.
Williams had 33 points and 14 assists in the 114-111 victory, cashing for the Jazz as six-point underdogs. But also key for Utah is getting points from C.J. Miles (17 points) and Paul Milsap (18 points). With Mehmet Okur and Andrei Kirilenko out, those two guys are going to be counted on more than usual. As long as they are strong supporting cast members, look for Utah to roll in this one.
The Jazz are on several pointspread streaks, including 23-9-2 at home, 32-15-3 overall, 8-3 as a home chalk and 14-6 after three or more days off. On the opposite side, Denver is on ATS skids of 1-6-1 on the road, 1-4-2 as an underdog and 5-12-1 overall.
Utah shot 52.9 percent from the floor on Monday night and while the Jazz haven’t been able to control Carmelo Anthony from getting his points, they have done a good job on the boards and have always been a tough home team. So tonight, I’m going to lay the chalk with the Jazz and count on another good shooting night.
Play Utah in this one.
2♦ UTAH
SPORTS WAGERS
San Diego +1.09 over CINCINNATI
Kevin Correia is off to a great start and although he’s never really been this good before, it’s interesting to note that he was dominant over his last six starts last year. In fact, he went 3-0 last September in five starts and pitched at least six full innings in all of them for a total of 36 innings. Over those 36 frames he allowed just 30 hits and five earned runs, walked six and struck out 29. So, whatever he found at the end of last year has carried over to this year. In 17.1 innings this season, Correia has allowed just 14 hits, six runs, struck out 17 and walked just six for a very impressive WHIP of 1.15 and an even more impressive BAA of .212 to go along with an ERA of 3.12. He’s also 5-1 lifetime vs the Reds and it sure doesn’t hurt that the Padres have reeled off six in a row. Johnny Cueto is all over the place. In three starts his pitch count has been 109, 110 and 103 and he’s pitched five innings twice and six innings once. He’s walked eight batters while striking out just nine and he’s always pitching from behind in the count. He’s already given up nine runs and has been hit hard every game thus far. In two starts vs the Padres, Cueto is 0-1 with a 7.36 ERA over 11 frames and that’s when he was pitching well. The Reds are coming off an exciting three-game set with the Dodgers and the Padres bring a lot less excitement to town. Play: San Diego +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
Seattle +1.11 over CHICAGO
The South Side is hitting a major-league worst .215 and they’ve scored two runs or less in four of its last six games. They were shelled for 22 runs over its last two games, which means the pen is not in good shape at all. The White Sox are playing horribly while the Mariners have caught fire by winning seven of its last eight games. Gavin Floyd has started twice this year against the Indians and once against the Blue Jays. He’s been rocked every start and it’s getting progressively worse. He failed to record an out in the second inning in his last start and was yanked after the first five Indians reached. Floyd has allowed 20 hits and 13 earned runs in 13 innings for an ERA of 9.00, a BAA of .351 and a WHIP of 2.13. I’ve watched him twice already and he has nothing. It looks like he’s throwing batting practice out there and it’s also worth noting that Floyd has a 7.47 ERA against the Mariners over the last three seasons. Ryan Rowland-Smith is definitely not reliable but he’s playing for a hot team that’s taking back a tag against a cold team and an even colder pitcher. Play: Seattle +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +1.65 over VANCOUVER
Win, lose or draw the Kings offer up a ton more value than the Canucks and in no way should they be taking back a price like this. This series has been very close and each game could’ve gone either way and one could even suggest the Canucks are very fortunate to be 2-2 instead of down 3-1. Jonathan Quick was a little shaky in his last start but that happens and Roberto Luongo has been shaky just about the whole season. He and Marty Brodeur used to be the cream of the crop and now they’re the two most overrated goalies in the game. Anyway, the Kings have not been outplayed or out-hit in this series and they’re also very comfortable on the road, where they went 24-14-3 during the season and took the Canucks to OT in the first two games of this series in Vancouver. Yeah, the Canucks can win this game but at this hefty price they’re absolutely overpriced. Play: Los Angeles +1.65 (Risking 2 units).
Brett Atkins
Scored the free winner on Thursday night as the Suns blasted Portland to take a 2-1 advantage in their Western Conference playoff series. Tonight I have a baseball winner for you as I pay the juice with Texas at home agaisnt Detroit.
Texas returns home after a much-needed Thursday win in Boston, snapping a six-game losing streak with a 3-0 victory over the Red Sox. Detroit was playing in Los Angeles Thursday night, so they got a late flight to Texas for this one.
Scott Feldman is on the mound for the Rangers and last time he threw at home he held Seattle to two runs on seven hits over seven innings and Texas scored a 9-2 victory.
Texas has beaten the Tigers five of the last seven meetings in Texas, plus the Rangers are on streaks of 17-7 on Friday, 4-1 when Feldman starts a series and 5-1 when he’s a favorite. Meanwhile the Tigers are just 1-5 on Fridays and 3-11 in series openers.
I’m going to pay the price and play the Rangers at home tonight.
3♦ TEXAS
Stephen Nover
Tampa Bay right-hander Matt Garza was only 8-12 last season. But that number is deceiving. The Rays averaged just 2.63 runs per game for Garza.
Garza is a very good pitcher. At 26 he is an emerging star. I think he has the best stuff on Tampa Bay's staff and he's showing it this season. In three starts, Garza is 3-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 0.88 WHIP.
Garza is particularly tough at Tropicana Field where he is 13-8 with a 3.01 ERA in 33 career starts. He is 6-3 with a 1.70 ERA in 10 career start against Toronto.
The Blue Jays had the most home runs in the American League through Wednesday. However, if you discount an 8-run game against Kansas City, the Blue Jays are averaging 2.7 runs in their last four games.
I believe Garza will come in with another strong performance. The wildcard in this handicap to the under is Brett Cecil. He's replacing the injured Brian Tallet as Toronto's starter.
Cecil was 7-4 last year for Toronto while pitching 93 1/3 innings. He probably would have made the club again out of spring training but suffered an injury.
So Cecil started the year with Toronto's Triple A club in Las Vegas. Cecil looked good there going 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA.
Even without Roy Halladay, the Blue Jays have good starting pitchers. Their pitching staff is underrated. Cecil has electric stuff. He's under-the-radar right now. Look for a good pitching matchup to take place.
3♦ BLUE JAYS/RAYS UNDER