Karl Garrett
OK, I will bite, you want to give me the Celtics plus points against a Miami team that have absolutely owned, I will take it all night long!
Boston has dispatched Miami in both games played thus far both straight up, and against the spread, and their series winning streak is now at 7 straight, and 8 of 10 overall. The C's have also covered in 7 of those 10 games, and have covered in 7 of the last 8 games played in Miami.
Boston will get KG back for this game, and they hardly missed a beat without him on Tuesday, clobbering the Heat 106-77 in Game 2.
You take a look at Miami's close of the regular season, and you see the majority of their wins came against the dregs of the association. This is a prideful, veteran Boston team that people had buried coming into this series.
It looks to me like Doc Rivers' team is not dead yet.
Take the points.
2♦ BOSTON
Bryan Leonard
Minnesota at Kansas City
These two have been involved in a few slugfests as of late. They just met up a week ago in Minnesota and 39 runs were scored in the three game series. Overall 10 of the last 11 games have exceeded the posted total. The only game to go under involved Greinke and he's not on the hill tonight.
Carl Pavano has a 6.83 ERA in his last five starts against the Royals. He's allowed 45 baserunners in only 29 innings. The current KC lineup is hitting a whopping .342 against him in his career.
Gill Meche hasn't been much better with a 4.97 ERA against the Twins in his last five starts. In his last seven starts overall he's been rocked for a 9.79 ERA allowing 72 baserunners in just 34 innings.
History and current form both point to a high scoring game and while the number is on the high side there is still plenty of value in playing this contest over the posted total.
PLAY OVER
Scott Spreitzer
Los Angeles Kings at Vancouver Canucks
Play: Vancouver Canucks
I'm laying the price with the Canucks on Friday night. Vancouver finally got over themselves, so to speak. The Canucks kept trying to change their ways, doing their best to stay away from committing too many penalties, almost playing a bit softer in game three. In game four, they got back to a more physical and punishing style of play. The Canucks dominated the ice over most of the final two periods, out-shooting Los Angeles, 29-18 over the final 40 minutes, leading to four goals in the third period. I believe it was a case of "getting over the hump," and I do think it will carry over to game five. Vancouver has been outstanding as a home fave, going 42-14 in this role over their last 56 chances. The home team is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between the Kings & Canucks, and Vancouver is on a 5-1 run at home against Los Angeles. Look for the Canucks to gain the win on Friday night. I'm laying the price with Vancouver.
Frank Jordan
New York Yankees vs. LAA Angels
Play: New York Yankees
The Yankees out homered Oakland 2-1 and turned a triple play yesterday, but Oakland's pitching made Kurt Suzuki's first inning three run homer stand up as the Yankee homers were solo shots. The Yankees did take the series 2-1 and have won each of their first 5 series including one against these Angels back East. The Angels came home and the bats were alive, but after winning the first two games against Detroit they lost two close ones the last two days 4-3 and 5-4. Look for the Angels to continue to slide in the early month as the bullpen troubles continue to mount. Play NY Yankees
Tom Freese
Florida Marlins at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Florida Marlins
Florida starter Ricky Nolasco has been on the winning side in his first three starts this year. The Marlins are 11-2 with Nolasco with 5 days of rest. The Marlins are 11-5 their last 16 games vs. NL West teams. Florida is 41-19 their last 60 games when their opponent allowed 2 runs or less in their last game. Colorado starter Greg Smith has more walks than strikeouts this year. The Rockies are 3-8 their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and they are 3-8 when scoring two runs or less in their last game. PLAY ON FLORIDA
BEN BURNS
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: San Francisco Giants
While it seems 'expensive,' at first glance, given the fact that Lincecum is on the mound, I believe that the current price on the Giants is quite fair.
The Giants' ace has been 'doing his thing,' again this season. He's already 3-0 with a spectacular 0.90 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. Through 20 innings, he's allowed just two runs. Over that stretch, he's recorded an impressive 24 K's while walking only three.
The Cardinals' Jaime Garcia is also off to a very impressive start. In fact, through two starts, he's gone 1-0 with a 0.69 ERA. However, while the Giants are 3-0 in Lincecum's starts, the Cards are just 1-1 in Garcia's. Also, his 10 K's and five walks, through 13 innings, isn't nearly as dominant as Lincecum's 24 to 3 K/W ratio. Of course, Lincecum's been dominating like this, since he came into the league. Garcia's "sample size" is much smaller. (Garcia is a rookie, Lincecum's 2.55 ERA since the beginning of 2008 is the lowest in the major leagues.)
Regarding the "steep price," note the Giants have actually fared very well as favorites in this range - due in no small part to Lincecum. They're 15-7 (+3.4) the past couple of seasons, as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. Looking back further and we find them at a profitable 141-71 (+26.8) their last 200+ in that situation.
On the other hand, during the same stretch, the Cards are a money-burning 32-63 (-12.4) as road underdogs in the +150 to +175 range. That includes a 5-10 (-2) mark in that role the past couple of seasons.
With Lincecum boasting a 4-0 record (1.61 ERA, 0.964 WHIP!) in four starts vs. St. Louis, (last time he faced them he threw a complete-game 2-hit shutout!) consider laying the wood.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Minnesota Twins -137
We'll fade the Royals' Gil Meche tonight. The Royals have lost both of his starts this season while watching him post an 11.58 ERA and a WHIP of 2.358. The Royals are 0-4 in Meche's last 4 home starts, 0-4 in his last 4 starts as an underdog and 1-8 in his last 9 starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Carl Pavano has been much better for the Twins. The Twins are 7-3 in Pavano's last 10 starts and 6-2 in his last 8 road starts. Plus, the Twins have dominated their division rival, winning 10 of the last 12 meetings overall and 16 of the last 21 in Kansas City. It is also worth noting that the Twins are 28-11 in their last 39 games vs. a right-handed starter, 25-10 in their last 35 games as a favorite, 18-5 in their last 23 vs. a team with a losing record and 17-5 in their last 22 during game 1 of a series. We'll bet the Twins tonight.
Stan Lisowski
NY YANKEES -130
Burnett is on the hill for the Bombers and NY has won all 3 of his starts this season. The Yankees have not lost back-to-back games this year, standing 3-0 off of a loss. For the Angels, they have lost Santana’s last 3 outings against NY.
Mr. Vegas
Mariners at White Sox
This is a low total for an American League game. Normally you find at least one ace on the mound with a total like this, but for this game we find two struggling starters. Ryan Rowland Smith of Seattle has average stuff, at best, and has walked 9 in 18 innings thus far, a poor ratio. Gavin Floyd of Chicago is struggling badly at 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA allowing 29 base runners in 13 innings. Look for an offensive show, Play the Mariners/White Sox Over the total.
Craig Trapp
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Play: Boston Celtics +4
Look at extra value take the M/L as well at +150! The Celtics have found their shooting the last game and half, this includes finding the fountain of youth for Ray Allen. The heat look like a team that has vacation plans for the end of April, as they have played very unmotivated. Wade might be thinking twice about resigning with this team as he has no help. The Celtics on the other hand are not the big three anymore! Rondo is the key to this team and he is the best overall player on this team. Rondo will push the pace and dominate the paint scoring and getting his other teammates involved. Celts win this one straight up but if you are worried take the points just in case!
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Oakland Athletics -150
Bottom Line: Tough spot for the Indians traveling west to play their 4th road game in as many days, especially with Westbrook on the mound. The Tribe is 0-2 in his road starts this season, during which he has posted an ERA of 7.45 and a WHIP of 2.172. Those are downright ugly numbers. Meanwhile, Justin Duchscherer has been brilliant for the A's. They are 3-0 in his starts this season, during which he has posted an EAR of 2.41 and a WHIP of 1.178. The Indians are 0-7 in Westbrook's last 7 starts as a road underdog while the Athletics are 9-4 in Duchscherer's last 13 home starts. Plus, the Indians are 7-22 in the last 29 meetings in Oakland and 0-5 in the last 5 meetings overall. Take the A's.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Minnesota Twins -129
I'll back the Twins at a solid price against a team they have owned tonight. First off, the Twins are 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in this series and 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in Kansas City. Secondly, Meche is struggling and the Royals are just 1-8 in his last 9 starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Thirdly, the Twins are 6-2 in Pavano's last 8 road starts. In addition, the Twins have won 17 of their last 22 series openers and I expect this trend to continue tonight.
MATT FARGO
10* Dallas Mavs +3
9* Utah Jazz -2
MICHAEL CANNON
30 DIME SA Spurs
15 DIME Miami Heat
VEGAS EXPERTS
New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels
After winning five straight games, the Los Angeles Angels have dropped back-to-back games to the Detroit Tigers in Anaheim. Tonight they get a shot at the Bronx Bombers who recently had a six-game winning streak of their own snapped. For the Angels tonight will be righty Ervin Santana. He has already given up five homeruns in three starts. The Yankees already have 19 homers as a team. New York Yankees hitters have clobbered right-handed pitching this season as they are averaging 5.8 runs per game and batting .288 in nine games. With AJ Burnett on the mound, the Yankees are in great shape. Go with the Yanks!
Play on: New York Yankees