LARRY NESS
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: San Francisco Giants
Everyone raves about the Giants' starting pitching and all took notice when Giants' offense averaged 6.2 RPG in opening 8-3. However, the San Francisco bats have gone 'cold," as the Giants have scored a grand total of just five runs in losing four straight games. So who do you call? Not Ghostbusters, just Tim Lincecum, the team's two-time defending Cy Young award winner. Lincecum has been near-perfect in opening the 2010 season at 3-0, posting an 0.90 ERA with 24 Ks (and only three walks) over 20.0 innings. Adding his 3-0 start to his last two seasons, Lincecum is 36-12 (.750) and the Giants 43-25 (.632) in his 68 starts. The Cards lead MLB with a 2.94 ERA and believe it or not, rookie Jamie Garcia owns the best ERA among starters at 0.69. However, it's "just two starts" and Lincecum is quite an opponent. He's won all four of his starts against St Louis in his short career, posting a Lincecum-like ERA of 1.61. A 'stopper' is defined as one who "stops losing streaks." Meet Tim Lincecum.
TEDDY COVERS
Twins @ Royals
PICK: Over 10
Carl Pavano got lit up by the Royals when he faced them last weekend, allowing eleven hits and seven earned runs in just 3.1 innings of work. This is nothing new for the KC lineup against Pavano. In seven starts against the Royals last year, Pavano allowed Kansas City to hit .310 against him, with a 6.59 ERA in those contests.
Gil Meche got lit up by the Twins when he faced them last weekend, just one start after getting bombed by the struggling Red Sox lineup. Meche has an 11.57 ERA this year, with opposing hitters batting .357 against him. Meche wasn’t all that much better last year, finishing the season with an ERA over five. In three starts against this Twins lineup last year, Meche allowed 29 baserunners in just 17 innings of work, compiling a 5.29 ERA in the process.
Both lineups are in solid current form. Minnesota has scored five runs or more in six of their last seven games. The Royals have scored five runs or more in six of their last ten outings, and as a team, they are hitting .300 against righties during that span. KC also has the single worst bullpen ERA in the AL, leaving the door open for late inning shenanigans. 2* Take the Over.
Info Plays
3* on Boston Celtics +4
Reasons the Celtics cover:
1.) Dwyane Wade has no help. Until he gets help, the Heat are doomed. Boston snatches Game 3 and takes complete control of this series. Kevin Garnett will provide the spark Boston needs to not let up after taking a 2-0 lead. Garnett returns from his 1-game suspension and he'll be getting after it tonight to help lead his team to victory.
2.) Boston is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season. The Celtics are 19-7 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. The Heat are just 7-23 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. Good value here with the underdog Celtics. Bet Boston on the road.
Black Widow
1* on Minnesota Twins -135
Gil Meche is washed up. Meche has allowed 12 earned runs in 9.1 innings in 2 starts this season, equating to an 11.58 ERA and a 2.358 WHIP. He allowed 5 earned runs against the Twins in one start already this season, giving up 7 hits and 4 walks in 6 innings. Meche has now allowed 9 earned runs in his last 11 innings pitched against Minnesota. The Twins continue beating up on the Royals and they never let themselves take this team lightly. As a result, the Twins are 10-2 in their last 12 meetings with Kansas City and 16-5 in their last 21 road meetings against the Royals. The Twins are 18-5 in their last 23 vs. a team with a losing record. The Royals are 1-8 in Meches last 9 starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150. As just a small favorite to beat K.C. in Game 1 Friday, we'll side with the Twins as our free pick. Take Minnesota on the Money Line.
Jack Jones
St. Louis Cardinals +154
Awesome value here with the St. Louis Cardinals as they travel to take on the San Francisco Giants. San Francisco is having trouble scoring runs again this season. The Giants are 0-4 in their last 4 games, scoring just 5 total runs in the 4 losses. Their lack of run support for Tim Lincecum tonight makes St. Louis a solid bet as a big underdog.
The Cardinals have found a gem in Jamie Garcia to round out their rotation. Garcia is 1-0 with a 0.69 ERA and 0.769 WHIP through 2 starts this season. He has allowed 1 earned run, 5 hits and 5 walks in 13 innings. The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Cardinals are 12-5 in their last 17 games following an off day. St. Louis is 39-19 in their last 58 during Game 1 of a series. The Giants are 3-7 in their last 10 games following an off day and 4-9 in their last 13 games against a left-handed starter. The Cardinals are scoring 6.3 RPG on the road this season, while the Giants are scoring 4.0 RPG against left-handed starters this year. Take the Cardinals.
John Ryan
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals
3* graded play on the Washington Nationals as they host the Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Washington will win this game. Dodgers are coming off a road loss at the Reds by the score of 8 to 5. Note that the Dodgers are just 8-19 (-13.1 Units) against the money line in road games after allowing 8 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. Washington is 20-13 (+14.6 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +125 to +150 over the last 3 seasons. Washington HC Riggelman is a solid 15-6 (+13.7 Units) against the money line after 5 or more consecutive home games while managing the Nationals. The Nationals are going with one of their strong young guns from Triple AAA in Luis Atilano. He has looked great in 2 starts at Syracuse based on published reports. He posted a 1.64 ERA and an 11/2 K/VBB ratio. This is a far improvement from his double AA season posting a ratio of 61:27. He has tremendous movement on all his pitches and since last season he has ben instructed on how to control that movement for maximum accuracy. None of the Dodgers have ever faced him and we strongly believe that he will have a dominating start tonight. take Washington.
Wunderdog
Detroit Red Wings vs. Phoenix Coyotes
Play: Detroit Red Wings
The Detroit Red Wings have been to the Stanley Cup Finals the last two years, winning one of them, so they certainly know their way around the pitfalls and obstacles in the playoffs. I expect them to draw upon that experience to gain the advantage in this series, currently tied at two games each. This is a team that is 247-121 as a favorite in their last 368 games as chalk and 10-2 in the playoffs at -110 to -150. The Coyotes are a not-so impressive 4-13 in their last 17 quarterfinals games. Experience the key factor here, so I’m on Detroit.