Robert Ferringo
Houston / Boston Under 9
This is my projected total, as I see the oddsmakers underestimating both of these veteran starters. Ryan Dempster is on the hill for the Red Sox, and he has gotten off to a better start than I expected. I thought Dempster was really just collecting paychecks, but he still has plenty left in the tank and has 33 strikeouts in his four starts this year (to just 11 walks). Erik Bedard takes the ball for the Astros. He is still building up arm strength and hasn't gone longer than four innings in any of his starts. But his 6.17 ERA is really misleading, since six of the eight runs he gave up this year came in one disastrous start against Oakland where he didn't make it out of the first inning. The Red Sox are not hitting left-handed pitching at all right now, and the Astros just don't hit, period. This is also a letdown series for Boston. They have been on such an emotional roller coaster in these l! ast two weeks that eventually they are going to hit an emotional wall. I think that a weekend series against the lowly Astros is just the spot. I think the pitchers will keep the batters off-balance here, and this one is going to sneak under an inflated total. I would play under at 8.5 or higher.
Jeff Benton
Boston opened last night with an easy 7-2 win over Houston, and while Ryan Dempster is not pitching as well as last night's hurler Clay Buchholz, I do believe he will be in line for his first win of the 2013 season when he toes the slab at home against the 7-15 Astros.
Dempster's ERA is a respectable 3.38 for the season, while his counterpart Erik Bedard has worked just under 12 frames this spring and has an ERA over 6.
No need to overthink this one, go ahead once again and play Boston on the Run Line to get another 2 runs or better win over the struggling 'Stros.
4* BOSTON -1.5
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is on the NY Knicks as they travel to Boston to face off with the veteran Celtics without Rajon Rondo.
I realize Boston is very tough to beat at home, but it looks to me like they are sluggish and tired. I don't remember see them play with this little passion and energy in a long time.
I know they are aging, but even with that being said they haven't played this "tired" in a long time.
New York won the first two game of this series even playing at Boston's pace. They are averaging 86 PPG in the first two games of this series, and that's well below their season average.
I guess that's good news and bad news. The bad news is that it's well below their average and that means they are playing Boston's style of basketball.
The good news is that they are still winning despite not scoring like they are used to. Could their defense be coming around?
Let's also not forget the Knicks still feature the league's leading scorer... Carmelo Anthony. Even in Boston's defensive style of play, the Knicks can't forget they have a shooter and a scorer.
Anthony has done his part by pouring in 70 points in the first two games, but I've been most amazed at his defensive intensity, though I first noticed his ability to play defense in his freshman year at Syracuse.
Boston will give it everything they have, but in the end the Knicks will be simply too strong. Take the Knicks to not only cover the number, but also win the game SU and take a 3-0 lead.
4* NEW YORK
Brad Wilton
Tonight another free play total, this time in the NBA, as I look for New York and Boston to stay low in their Game 3 battle from Beantown.
The first 2 games in this series have stayed well Under the total, as the teams have run their Under series streak to 5 straight games dating back to the month of January.
New York has become quite an Under machine, as their last 3 games dating back to the regular season and 5 of their last 6 games overall have played low. Throw in the fact that 5 of the last 6 series meetings between these division-rivals played at the TD Garden have held low, and I think we will be seeing another game between the Knicks and the Celtics that will stay Under the total.
New York-Boston Under on Friday night.
3* NEW YORK-BOSTON UNDER
Wunderdog
Cincinnati at Washington
Pick: Cincinnati +115
Washington has not enjoyed the type of start they had hoped to achieve. Despite a breakout night at the plate last night, the bats produced a grand total of 4 runs in their previous four games. The Nats are just .500 through 22 games, and have scored 3 or fewer runs in more than half their games, having been shutout four times already. The Reds have fared extremely well in Bailey's last five starts as a road dog where they have been 5-0. Overall, they have been stellar after a loss by going 22-9 in their next game. The Nationals have struggled at home vs. winning teams where they are just 1-6 in their last seven. This is a good spot for the dog here, so play on Cincinnati.
MLB Predictions
New York Yankees -125
The Yankees took the first game of this series last night 5-3 with 3 long balls, including Robinson Cano's 3 run shot that probably would of been a fly ball out at most stadiums. The Yankees are now 3-1 in these teams 4 meetings so far this season, and they are 12-9 on the season (6-4 at home). The Blue Jays are 9-14 on the season (4-6 on the road) and are 3-7 over their last 10 games. Being a Blue Jays fan it has been extremely hard to watch them this season, as they average just 3.7 runs per game and rarely ever score more than 4 runs in a game. They are 29th in the MLB in team batting average at .224 and 27th in OBP at just .291. The Yankees on the other hand are 7th and 13th respectively in those categories and are averaging 4.7 runs per game. Tonight's starter for Toronto is Aaron Laffey who pitched for them last year and will make the spot start for Josh Johnson. In 4 appearances this year he is 0-0 with a 7.20 ERA. Last season as a starter with the Jays he was 4-6 with a 4.81 ERA. Ivan Nova will start against the Blue Jays for the second time this season. Last time out he went 5 innings allowing 7 hits and 4 earned runs at the Rogers Centre, with two of those earned runs coming in the 6th inning. The Blue Jays are just 1-4 in Laffey's last 5 starts vs a team with a winning record, while the Yankees are 14-6 in Nova's last 20 starts as a home favorite. Toronto has had a tough time at Yankee Stadium going 7-20 in their last 27 meetings there. With the way the Blue Jays have really struggled at the plate it is always worth a look at betting against them right now and with this pitching match up in New York I think we've got value on the Yanks.
John Ryan
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
The simulator shows a high probability that Toronto will win this game. NY is in a poor spot, noting they are just 6-14 (-13.2 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .285 or worse over their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. 5-12 (-10.9 Units) against the money line after scoring and allowing 5 runs or less last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. Both starters have not had their best to start the season, but Josh Johnson is getting it together and had far better command in his last start. Moreover, he is far more likely to pitch through the 6th than Yankee starter Nova. In addition, Toronto has a significantly better bullpen than the Yankees. Blue Jays sport a 2.21 ERA with a 1.336 WHIP in 10 road games spanning 36 ⅔ innings of work. Note, that Yankee skipper Girardi is just 11-17 (-10.9 Units) against the money line after scoring and allowing 5 runs or less last 4 games as the manager of the Yankees.
Jimmy Boyd
San Diego Padres +105
Tim Lincecum has had some control issues this season posting 14 walks in 22.7 innings pitched. He is averaging just 5.7 innings per start and has a 5.09 ERA in his last three games. In his two games on the road this season Lincecum has gone only 5 innings per start and has a 1.700 WHIP. It seems as though the once dominate right-hander has lost some of his game and the Padres are in a perfect position to hand Lincecum his first loss of the season.
The Giants are batting .250 and averaging 3.3 runs per game in their last 7 games. Andrew Cashner will get the start for the Padres and that complete lack of offense from the Giants is just what the young pitcher needs to make a deep run in this game. He has thrown in 6 games this season and has a 1.203 WHIP. He started against San Francisco on April 20th and gave up just two earned runs and had five strikeouts in four innings pitched. San Diego struggled to get Cashner the run support he needed in that game but I expect a different result today.
Steve Merril
Cleveland vs. Kansas City
Play: Over 8½
Kansas City returns home after a 4-3 road trip thru Atlanta, Boston, and Detroit. Now they host the Cleveland Indians who have won three of their last four games after losing their previous five games. Ervin Santana is 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA in four starts for Kansas City. He has had his problems with the Indians going 2-8 with a 4.71 ERA in 14 career starts against them. Cleveland is 6-5 on the road hitting .270 while putting up 5.4 runs per game. Their offense has scored 29 runs in the last four games with 19 of those runs coming in one game.
Scott Kazmir's debut in Houston after two years off was a rough one; he allowed 6 runs and seven hits in just over three innings. Kazmir gave up 5 runs to the Royals in 2011 in just over one inning of work. Miguel Tejada has seen the lefty the most and has 11 hits in 28 total at-bats against him. The Royals have scored 4 runs or more in four straight games and they are hitting .274 at home where they've only played six games so far this season. These two teams have played 13 Overs in their last 17 games in Kansas City and that trend will continue on Friday night.
Jack Jones
Chicago White Sox -141
The Chicago White Sox are worth the price Friday as a medium-sized home favorite over the Tampa Bay Rays. With the edge they have on the mound in this one, I have no problem pulling the trigger on the Sox tonight.
Jake Peavy has picked up right where he left off last season. The former Cy Young winner is 2-1 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.145 WHIP through four starts this year. He has allowed just two earned runs over 14 innings in his last two starts.
Roberto Hernandez, formerly known as Fausto Carmona, is clearly washed up. He is 1-3 with a 4.74 ERA through four starts this season, including 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA in two road starts. Hernandez has posted a 5.60 ERA in 16 career starts against Chicago.
This play falls into a system that is 86-28 (75.4%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (TAMPA BAY) - with an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season (AL). Bet the White Sox Friday.
Jeff Alexander
Houston Astros +240
Red Sox are way overvalued here. They have lost 3 of Dempster's 4 starts, and he has a terrible track record versus Houston. He's 6-11 with an ERA of 4.69 in 25 starts against the Astros, and his teams have lost 18 of those, including 12 of the last 16. We'll make a value play on the Stros.
Dave Price
New York Yankees -135
With yesterday's loss, the Blue Jays fell to 17-35 in their last 52 road games and 4-15 in their last 19 at Yankee Stadium. They are a soft 14-41 in their last 55 road games versus a team with a winning home record, and I expect this trend to continue. The Yankees are 43-18 in their last 61 home games versus a team with a losing road record, and they are in good hands with Ivan Nova. New York is 27-12 in his last 39 starts as a favorite and 14-6 in his last 20 starts as a home favorite. He is also 2-0 (3-0 on the money line) in 3 career home starts versus Toronto, carrying a solid 3.50 ERA in those contests. Take the Yankees.
Larry Ness
San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
Pick: San Francisco Giants
Tim Lincecum and Andrew Cashner square off Friday for the second time in less than a week when the visiting Giants open a three-game series against the Padres in San Diego tonight.. Lincecum came out ahead last Saturday in San Francisco, when he tossed 6.2 scoreless innings in a 2-0 victory. The Giants swept the three-game series at AT&T Park and they’re off to a 9-3 start against National League West opponents. That’s nothing new, as the Giants were 45-27 against division foes last season, on their way to a second World Series title in the last three years.
The Giants enter tonight’s game 13-9, while the Padres are struggling at 6-15, including just 2-7 at home. Tim Lincecum has shown signs of returning to his former self in 2013, opening 2-0 with a 3.97 ERA in four starts (Giants are 4-0 in those starts). Lincecum’s always pitched well against the Padres, posting an 11-5 career mark (2.33 ERA) in 23 starts (Giants are 16-7). San Diego’s Andrew Cashner is making his seventh appearance of 2013 tonight but his only previous start came last Saturday in that 2-0 loss to Lincecum (he threw four innings while allowing two ERs). He’s 0-1 with a 4.05 ERA to open 2013. Cashner (mostly a reliever in his short career with just seven starts in 99 appearances) was limited to 65 pitches in his first start of 2013 last Saturday but his pitch limit will be increased to about 80 on Friday. Is that good or bad news?
Linceum is 5-1 with a 2.58 ERA in his last eight starts in this series and will face a San Diego offense that has been to say the least, struggling. The Padres have totaled just eight runs and batted .198 while losing FIVE of their six. They rank near the bottom of the majors with 12 HRs, 69 runs (3.29 per) and a .349 slugging percentage. San Francisco has won 26 of the last 35 in this series and I say make that 27 of the last 36 right here.
Joe Gavazzi
Chicago White Sox -140
Until the Rays get it on track on the road where they are 2-8 with a .193 BA, I must continue to fade them. The answer certainly does not appear to be the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona. Even a name change has not altered the mediocre at best performance of Hernandez. For the season, Hernandez is 1-3 with a 4.74 ERA. In 12 starts vs. the Pale Hose, it is an even worse 4.85 ERA. I have been waiting for the CWS turnaround. Following a 3-10 slide, CWS has now won 2 straight. They send Peavey to the hill with an outstanding 1.14 WHIP, a 33/5 KBB off a recent start which he allowed 1 run on 9 Ks in 7 IP. In a pair of starts from this mound this season, Peavey has hurled to the tune of a 1.38 ERA. With a bullpen index advantage, a 164-113, we comfortably line up with the White Sox today.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Lakers/ Spurs Under 187: The Under is 9-2 the last 11 in LA and 20-7 the last 27 overall. Where will the Lakers get their points in this one. Nash and Meeks are doubtful. No Kobe and no Blake. Nash ran a pretty smooth offense that is a bit moere uptempo with him in there. Missing Kobe has really hurt their scoring and Meeks put in 7.9 ppg on the year, while Blake is their 2nd best 3pt shooter (behind Nash). This team will really be hard pressed to score allot in this one. Even with Nash and Blake in there the Lakers could only muster 85 ppg in the first two games of the series. The Lakers will really need t slow the pace in this one if they want any shot at taking this game. The Spurs do average 101.4 ppg on the road and they do play the uptempo game, but the Lakers have played pretty good defense at home, allowing 97.4 ppg, including allowing just 87 ppg in their 2 home games vs the Spurs this year. Very little offense from the Lakers in what should be a very slow paced game should equal a game that will put up no more than 180 points, especially since the two games here between these teams this year have put up just 177 and 166 points.
Denver/ Golden State Over 211: Neither team played much defense in game 2 and I expect more of the same in this one. Denver's offense has been one of the best all year as they have averaged 106.2 ppg, while in their last 5 games they have put up 112.4 ppg, hitting the 112 point mark in 4 of those games. Golden State comes in hot offensively as well as they have scored 111.4 pg in their last 5 games. They only score 101.6 ppg at home, but Denver does allow 104.3 ppg on the road. The Warriors have struggled defensively of late, allowing 107 ppg in their last 6 games. Both teams will play uptempo in this one and with two high powered offenses vs two bad defensive teams we should get at least 220 points scored in this one.