SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlanta (2-3 SU and ATS) at Milwaukee (3-2 SU and ATS)
The sixth-seeded Bucks aim to finish off a first-round upset when they return home to the Bradley Center for Game 6 against the reeling Hawks.
Milwaukee trailed 82-73 with four minutes left in Game 5 on Wednesday night, then went on a stunning 14-0 run and held on for a 91-87 upset as a hefty nine-point underdog. The Bucks, who have won three in a row SU and ATS since dropping Games 1 and 2 in this series, got outshot 43.4 percent-40.5 percent, going 30 of 74 from the floor while Atlanta went 36 of 83. But Milwaukee made 8 of 19 three-pointers (42.1 percent), while the Bucks were just 2 of 11 (18.2 percent) from long range.
Milwaukee also had a big advantage at the charity stripe in Game 5, going 23-for-29, while Atlanta earned just 17 trips to the line and made 13. Brandon Jennings led the Bucks with 25 points, including a 7-for-8 effort at the free-throw line.
Atlanta got 25 points and 11 rebounds from Al Horford, and 22 points from Marvin Williams, but top scorer Joe Johnson mustered just 13 points before fouling out with 2:13 left, in the midst of his team’s late-game collapse, as the Hawks missed seven consecutive shots during the Bucks’ decisive rally.
Milwaukee is 30-13 SU (26-16-1 ATS) in the home jerseys, putting up 100.3 ppg and giving up 96.6, despite getting outshot 45.5 percent to 44.3 percent. The Bucks lost their last two regular-season home starts – including one to Atlanta – but are still 14-2 SU (11-4-1 ATS) in their last 16 at the Bradley Center, scoring SU and ATS wins over the Hawks in Games 3 and 4.
Meanwhile, Atlanta stands at 19-24 SU (23-20 ATS) on the highway this season, averaging 98.7 ppg on 46.2 percent shooting, while allowing just a smidge less at 98.5 ppg (46.7 percent shooting).
Milwaukee’s 3-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry follows a 4-0 ATS surge by Atlanta. The chalk is 12-5-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings between these two, and the SU winner is 16-3-1 ATS in the last 20 clashes, including 5-0 in this series. Also, in Atlanta’s last 23 playoff contests, the SU winner is a torrid 22-0-1 ATS, and the SU winner is 11-0-1 ATS in Milwaukee’s last 12 overall.
The Hawks are in ATS funks of 1-5 after a non-cover, 0-5 coming off a SU loss and 1-6 on Friday, but they still carry positive ATS streaks of 9-4 against winning teams, 5-2 as a chalk and 5-1 laying less than five points. Meanwhile, the Bucks are on pointspread sprees of 37-14-2 overall, 14-4 as an underdog, 17-5-1 after a day off, 36-13-2 after a spread-cover, 33-16-2 after a SU win and 8-1-1 on Friday, though they are also 3-8-1 ATS in their last dozen as a playoff ‘dog.
Although Wednesday’s game fell short of the 191½-point price, the total has still gone high in 11 of the last 13 meetings overall in this rivalry, with the last six in a row at the Bradley Center hurdling the posted price.
In addition, the Bucks are on a plethora of “over” sprees, including 7-3 overall, 7-0-1 at home, 15-5-2 in first-round playoff games, 10-2 against winning teams and 37-18 as a home pup. Finally, Atlanta is on “over” runs of 6-3 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 4-1 as a road chalk, 10-2 laying less than five points on the road, 7-2 against winning teams and 21-8 following a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
L.A. Lakers (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) at Oklahoma City (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS)
The defending NBA champion Lakers head to the Ford Center in Oklahoma City looking to finish off the young Thunder in Game 6 of this best-of-7 opening-round series.
Los Angeles took a 3-2 series lead with a 111-87 blowout win on Tuesday, easily cashing as a six-point home chalk. The Lakers raced out to a 14-1 lead to start the game and had a 31-16 advantage after one quarter and never looked back, shooting 53.8 percent from the floor. Pau Gasol led the way with 25 points and Andrew Bynum chipped in 21 and both big men also pulled down 11 rebounds. Defensively, they held Oklahoma City to just 36.9 percent shooting.
The Lakers have won 15 of the last 18 (7-11 ATS) in this rivalry, but the Thunder have won three in a row in Oklahoma City (SU and ATS), including a 110-89 blowout win in Game 4 on Saturday as a one-point favorite.
Los Angeles is 23-20 (17-25-1 ATS) on the road this season, but they’ve dropped six of seven (SU and ATS) overall on the highway. Inside the Ford Center, the Thunder are 29-14 (24-19 ATS), including an ongoing 13-3 run over their final 16 home games (10-6 ATS).
The Thunder haven’t been in the playoffs since 2005 when the franchise was the Seattle SuperSonics and they reached the Western Conference semifinals, losing to the Spurs 4-2 (3-3 ATS), after beating Sacramento 4-1 (3-2 ATS) in the opening round. The Lakers’ march to the title last season included a 4-1 (2-3 ATS) series win over the Jazz, 4-3 (SU and ATS) over the Rockets, 4-2 (3-3 ATS) over the Nuggets and then 4-1 (SU and ATS) over the Magic in the NBA Finals. L.A. has reached the postseason five straight times and 15 times in the last 16 years.
Despite Tuesday’s rout, it’s been nothing but negative ATS trends for Los Angeles, including 2-6 overall, 1-6 on the road, 1-10 after a spread-cover, 0-4 as an underdog and 0-5 on the road against teams with winning home records. Conversely, Oklahoma City is on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 49-21 after a straight-up loss, 23-9 on Friday, 10-3 after two days off, 4-0 at home, 7-1 at home against teams with winning road records and 21-10 against winning teams.
The Lakers have topped the total in five of seven overall and six of eight on the road, but they are on “under” streaks of 7-0 on Friday, 20-6 after two days off, 11-4 as road ‘dogs and 23-9 against Northwest Division teams. The Thunder have stayed below the number in seven of eight Friday games, but they are on “over” runs of 6-2 overall, 4-0 as a favorite, 7-3-1 as a home chalk and 5-2-1 after a non-cover.
In this series, the “over” has cashed in each of the last three games, including both matchups in Oklahoma City.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA CITY
Denver (2-3 SU and ATS) at Utah (3-2 SU and ATS)
The Jazz return home to EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City for Game 6 of their best-of-7 Western Conference first-round series, trying once again to finish off the fourth-seeded Nuggets.
Denver staved off elimination on Wednesday with a 116-102 home win, cashing as a seven-point chalk and drawing to 3-2 in the series. The Nuggets shot 50.7 percent from the floor and outscored Utah 66-50 in the second half. Carmelo Anthony paced Denver with 26 points and 11 rebounds, but the All –Star got a lot of help, including 21 points from Chauncey Billups, 18 from Kenyon Martin and 17 from J.R. Smith.
The Nuggets lead the season series 5-4 (4-3-2 ATS), but lost Games 3 and 4 in Utah by wide margins, including Sunday’s 117-106 setback in Game 4, failing as a 2½-point underdog. The Jazz are on a 3-1 ATS surge in this series and the chalk is 28-12-3 ATS in the last 43 meetings.
The road has been rough on Denver this season as it fell to 19-24 (15-23-5 ATS) with Sunday’s loss in Utah, and the Nuggets are just 2-8 (1-8-1 ATS) in their last 10 on the highway. On the other hand, the Jazz are a dominating 34-9 in front of the home fans (28-13-2 ATS), winning 12 of their last 13 in Salt Lake City (10-3 ATS).
The Jazz were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs a season ago by the Lakers in five games (3-2 ATS). They’re in the postseason for the fourth consecutive year, but have lost four of their last six first-round series.
The Lakers also took out the Nuggets on their way to the NBA title, topping Denver in six games (3-3 ATS) in the Western Conference Finals. Prior to meeting Los Angeles, the Nuggets had won eight of 10 playoff contests in the first two rounds – eliminating New Orleans and Dallas – while going 10-0 ATS. This is Denver’s sixth consecutive playoff appearance after a nine-year drought from 1995-2003.
Denver is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 first-round playoff games, but otherwise the team is on a host of negative pointspread slides, including 6-14-1 overall, 1-8-1 on the road, 6-16-4 after a spread-cover, 1-5 on Friday, 1-6-2 as a ‘dog and 1-8-1 after one day off. Utah is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven Friday contests, but it is otherwise on ATS surges of 34-16-3 overall, 25-9-2 at home, 24-9-2 as a home favorite, 20-6 after a straight-up loss and 39-19-2 as a favorite of less than five points.
The Nuggets have topped the total in six of seven overall and six of seven against winning teams, but they are on “under” streaks of 5-2 on the road, 28-18 as an underdog, 21-6 as a playoff pup and 21-8 in first-round playoff games. The Jazz have stayed below the number is nine of 12 Friday affairs, but they are on “over” surges of 4-1 overall, 4-0 after a straight-up loss, 22-6 against Northwest Division teams and 6-1 against teams with winning records.
In this rivalry, the “under” is 5-2 in the last seven clashes in Utah, but the “over” is 6-1 in the last seven meetings overall, with four of five in this playoff series clearing the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (13-9) at Philadelphia (12-9)
The red-hot Mets go after their eighth straight victory when they pay their first visit of the season to Citizens Bank Park for an N.L. East clash with the Phillies. Young left-hander Jonathan Niese (0-1, 3.68 ERA) is set to take the mound for New York opposite Kyle Kendrick (0-0, 7.71).
New York wrapped up a three-game sweep of the Dodgers – and a 10-game homestand – with Wednesday’s 7-3 home victory. The Mets went 9-1 on the homestand, outscoring the opposition 45-14 in the nine wins, and during the 10-game stretch the pitching staff posted a 2.09 team ERA. Jerry Manuel’s club is on additional surges of 6-0 against right-handed starters, 4-1 on Friday and 6-2 in series openers, but they’re still just 15-38 in their last 53 against N.L. East rivals and 6-16 in their last 22 versus winning teams.
Philadelphia rallied for a 7-6, 11-inning victory at San Francisco on Wednesday to salvage a three-game series against the Giants and end a nine-game road trip. The Phillies were dominated for 8 1/3 innings by Tim Lincecum on Wednesday, but once the two-time reigning Cy Young winner departed, Philadelphia overcame a 4-1 deficit with two outs in the ninth to tie the game, then won it with two runs in the 11th.
Since starting the season 8-2, the Phillies have lost seven of 11, including two straight at home. They’ve also dropped six of seven to left-handed starters and four straight at home against lefties, yet the two-time defending N.L. champs are on positive runs of 37-14 after an off day and 13-5 when opening a series.
Philadelphia went 12-6 against the Mets last year, and after losing four of the first five meetings, the Phils went on to win 11 of the last 13, including six of seven at Citizens Bank.
Niese was on the mound for two of New York’s wins during its recent homestand, handcuffing both the Cubs (one unearned run in 5 2/3 innings of a 6-1 victory) and Braves (one run allowed in 5 1/3 innings of a 3-1 win). However, his worst start of the 2010 came in his only road outing, as he got rocked for five runs on nine hits in five innings at Colorado, getting a no-decision in a 6-5 loss.
In his brief career, Niese is 1-0 with a 6.60 ERA in three road starts. Tonight marks his first career meeting with Philadelphia.
Kendrick failed to capitalize on his best start of the season (eight shutout innings at Atlanta on April 20), getting rocked for five runs on eight hits in five innings of Sunday’s 8-6 loss at Arizona. The right-hander has given up at least five runs in three of his four starts, and his worst outing to date came at home on April 14, when he lasted just 1 2/3 innings and yielded six runs, but his offense bailed him out in rallying for a 14-7 win.
Philly has lost four of Kendrick’s last five starts overall, but they’re 5-2 in his last seven at home and 6-1 the last seven times he’s started on Friday. Also, Kendrick has been outstanding in five career starts against New York, giving up one or two earned runs in each contest while going 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA.
The Mets are on “under” runs of 9-4-1 overall, 5-0 against N.L. East foes, 4-0 in series openers and 4-1-1 behind Niese. The under is also 17-5-1 in Philadelphia’s last 23 Friday affairs and 4-1 in its last five divisional games. On the flip side, though, the Phillies carry lengthy “over” streaks of 34-15-2 overall, 10-2-1 at home, 5-1 after a day off and 8-3 against southpaw starters. And with Kendrick starting, the over is on upticks of 32-12 overall, 5-1 at home, 6-1 on Friday and 9-3 against the N.L. East.
Finally, these teams stayed under the total in 10 of their final 12 meetings last year, including six of the last seven in Philadelphia.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (12-11) at Detroit (13-10)
For the second time in 10 days, the Angels and Tigers hook up, this time at Comerica Park, with Joel Pineiro (2-2, 3.42) matching up against Detroit’s Rick Porcello (1-2, 7.91) in the opener of a three-game series.
Los Angeles got an RBI bunt single from Howie Kendrick in the bottom of the ninth inning Wednesday to rally past the Indians 4-3 and cap a season-long 10-game homestand that began with a four-game series against Detroit. Since a five-game winning streak – which included three straight road wins – the Angels have split their last eight contests, but they’re also on hot streaks of 4-1 on the road, 8-3 on Friday, 7-2 against winning teams, 13-6 after an off day and 4-0 in series openers.
Detroit finished a three-game series against Minnesota with Thursday’s 3-0 shutout win, getting six strong innings from Dontrelle Willis. In taking the final two games against the Twins, the Tigers improved to 6-3 at home this season. However, Jim Leyland’s squad has dropped 13 of 16 to open a series and six of seven on Friday.
These teams split their four-game set in Anaheim earlier this month, with Los Angeles taking the first two contests (2-0 and 6-5) and Detroit posting one-run wins in the last two (4-3 and 5-4). The Angels remain on a 49-23 overall run against the Tigers.
After three straight quality starts to begin his Angels career – four runs allowed in 19 1/3 innings, including a 2-0 win over the Tigers on April 19 – Pineiro imploded his last time out against the Yankees, giving up six runs on 11 hits in six innings of a 7-1 loss. In his only road start this year, the right-hander dominated the Yankees in a 5-3 victory, allowing just a run on five hits and no walks with seven strikeouts in seven innings.
In between his two starts against New York, Pineiro blanked the Tigers over 7 1/3 innings, scattering nine hits with no walks and four strikeouts. He’s 7-2 with a scant 2.40 ERA in 12 career games (10 starts) against Detroit, including 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA in three games (two starts) at Comerica Park.
Porcello is coming off consecutive ugly outings, both on the road, giving up six runs each against the Angels (4 1/3 innings) and Rangers (four innings), and he lost both games by scores of 6-5 and 8-4. The right-hander was much better in his first two starts, both at home, giving up five runs in 11 innings (4.09 ERA) against the Indians and Royals. Still, though, Porcello has allowed 33 hits and six walks in 19 1/3 innings.
Going back to last year, the Tigers are 1-5 in Porcello’s last six starts overall, but they’ve won 12 of his last 16 at home and four of his last five on Friday. Also, including his outing in Anaheim 10 days ago, Porcello has faced the Angels twice, giving up a combined 10 runs on 13 hits and five walks in 9 1/3 innings, but the Tigers pulled out a 9-6 home win in Porcello’s first start against L.A. last June.
The Halos sport “under” streaks of 20-6 on the road, 13-3 against right-handed starters on the road and 12-5-1 in series openers. The under is also 6-2-2 in the Tigers’ last 10 Friday contests and 6-0 in Porcello’s last six on Friday. Conversely, though, Detroit is on “over” surges of 5-2-1 overall, 5-2 at home, 4-0-1 versus the A.L. West and 4-1 overall with Porcello starting.
Finally, the under is 6-2-1 the last nine times the Angels have visited Motown.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
DUNKEL INDEX
Denver at Utah
The Jazz look to bounce back from their 116-102 loss in Game 5 and build on their 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 games following a SU loss by more than 10 points. Utah is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Jazz favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Utah (-4 1/2)
Game 553-554: Atlanta at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 117.679; Milwaukee 124.252
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 6 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 2; 190
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+2); Over
Game 555-556: LA Lakers at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 122.375; Oklahoma City 119.679
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 2 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 2; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+2); Under
Game 557-558: Denver at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 115.649; Utah 125.115
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 9 1/2; 216
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 4 1/2; 217 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-4 1/2); Under
MLB
Colorado at San Francisco
The Giants look to bounce back from their 7-6 loss on Wednesday and build on their 7-1 record in Barry Zito's last 8 starts after scoring 5 or more runs in the previous game. San Francisco is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-140)
Game 951-952: Arizona at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Lopez) 15.088; Cubs (Wells) 15.584
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-165); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-165); N/A
Game 953-954: NY Mets at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 15.112; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.705
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-150); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-150); Over
Game 955-956: Washington at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Stammen) 15.688; Florida (Nolasco) 15.108
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-230); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+190); Under
Game 957-958: Houston at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Myers) 14.118; Atlanta (Hanson) 13.387
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 959-960: Cincinnati at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.457; St. Louis (Penny) 16.917
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-200); Over
Game 961-962: Milwaukee at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Bush) 14.323; San Diego (Richard) 15.514
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Diego (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-125); Over
Game 963-964: Pittsburgh at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 12.962; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 14.329
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-260); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-260); Under
Game 965-966: Colorado at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 15.671; San Francisco (Zito) 16.629
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-135); Over
Game 967-968: Chicago White Sox at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Garcia) 15.159; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 16.162
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-240); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-240); Under
Game 969-970: Minnesota at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Slowey) 16.275; Cleveland (Carmona) 15.401
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+110); Under
Game 971-972: Oakland at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Cahill) 15.718; Toronto (Morrow) 14.881
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 973-974: Boston at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lackey) 14.912; Baltimore (Hernandez) 13.792
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-165); Over
Game 975-976: LA Angels at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Pineiro) 16.410; Detroit (Porcello) 15.205
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-125); Over
Game 977-978: Kansas City at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Bannister) 15.861; Tampa Bay (Niemann) 16.901
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-210); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-210); Under
Game 979-980: Texas at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 14.825; Seattle (Lee) 16.342
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-150); Over
NHL
Montreal at Pittsburgh
The Canadiens look to build on their 4-1 record in their last 5 games as an underdog. Montreal is the pick (+250) according to Dunkel, which has the Canadiens favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+250)
Game 55-56: Montreal at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.719; Pittsburgh 11.273
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-300); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+250); Under
Marc Lawrence
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
When the Tribe hosts Minnesota at Progressive Field in the opener of a three game series Friday night they will send Fausto Carmona to the hill against Kevin Slowey. WIth Slowey just 3-8 in his last 11 road team team starts in this park and Carmona in solid current form, look for the Indians to improve to 14-7 as a series host here tonight.
Jeff Hochman
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies pounded left-handed starters at home last year no matter who it was and they are doing it so far this season. The Mets have won 7 in a row but having a day-off yesterday will hurt. There is a great chance the Mets come out very flat in this game. As for Kendrick his Sinker works very well at home and against a very aggressive hitting club like the Mets. Take the Phillies!
Cajun Sports
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners
The Texas Rangers travel to the Pacific Northwest for a weekend series against the host Seattle Mariners with the opening game Friday night and the first pitch set for 10:10PM EST. Texas will send right-hander Colby Lewis to the bump with his 3-0 record and ERA of 3.80. On the highway his ERA increases to 4.36 but he is still perfect with a record of 1-0 while his team is 1-1 with him taking the hill on the road this season. The Rangers are 3-6 overall on the road and 2-6 when facing left-handed starters. Seattle will send left-hander Cliff Lee to the mound for his first start of the 2010 campaign. Lee was traded from Philadelphia during the off-season after pitching extremely well for the Phillies last season. The Mariners have been tough at home posting a record of 7-2 for +5.3 units of profit. They are averaging 4.3 runs per game this season while the Rangers have only managed 3.8 runs per game on the road. The Rangers have struggled against southpaws on the highway the last couple seasons going 8-21 (-12.9) their last two campaigns. Our TPR Index projects a Mariners win by 2.2 runs over the Rangers on Friday night. The Math Model also favors the host in this situation with Seattle winning by 1.87 runs. Finally a check of the database reveals a powerful league-wide system that tells us to Play AGAINST MLB (AL) road underdogs in this price range with a batting average of .260 or worse facing a team with a solid bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better with a starting pitcher that gives up .5 or less homeruns per start. Playing against the underdogs has produced a record of 40-8 the last five seasons and a profit of +28.1 units of profit. With solid technical and situational support we will back the host team here as the Mariners open this three-game set with a victory on Friday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Seattle Mariners 4 Texas Rangers 2
Craig Trapp
Hawks vs. Bucks
Play: Over 190
Both games in MIL went over this series scoring over this listed total very easily. This MIL team is one of the most confident teams after beating ATL at home. Three point shooting is key for MIL and the last three games they are shooting over 40%. Tonight they keep it up helping this one go over the total. ATL will be desperate so expect them at the foul line all night. ATL will try and lock down defensively but it won't work as they just don't play defense very often. Easily this one goes over the listed total!
Rob Vinciletti
Hawks vs. Bucks
Play: Over 190
The Hawks have gone over 13 of 15 times as a road favorite of 3 or less. The Bucks have gone over the total 15 of 17 times as a home dog of 3 or less. In the series here in Milwaukee 7 of the last 8 have gone over the total,including both games here in this playoff series. With the Hawks having flown over the total in 10 of 14 tries on the road when the posted total is 190 to 195 we will back the over here tonight.
LEE KOSTROSKI
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: New York Mets
The Phillies had a great start to the season with big run production but the early season schedule was favorable and Philadelphia appears to have lost most of that momentum. The Phillies are scoring 5.4 runs per game for the year but in the last ten games that number slips to just 3.6 runs per game. That figure may be inflated as well as the Phillies had one run through 26 outs on Wednesday before a miraculous comeback netted seven total runs in an extra-innings win. The Phillies have been held to four or fewer runs in seven of the last ten games and the loss of Jimmy Rollins has had an impact.
The Mets are a red hot team, cruising into first place with a great home stand but New York is not scoring a lot of runs. The Mets have average just 4.3 runs per game for the season and New York scored five or fewer runs in seven straight games before posting ten against the Dodgers earlier this week. New York is only hitting .240 as a team for the season and the Mets have hit just 14 home runs on the year, featuring a very weak .688 OPS for the season. The Mets have had a home-heavy early season schedule and in road games this season New York is scoring just 3.5 runs per game, failing to top five runs scored in any road game this season.
Left-hander Jonathan Niese has a very high WHIP but he has managed to get out of trouble most of the time. Niese has a very respectable 3.68 ERA for the season and in his last two starts spanning eleven innings Niese has allowed only one earned run. He has 18 strikeouts in just 22 innings pitched this season so the potential to be a quality starter for the Mets appears to be there. The ?under? is 3-1 in his four starts as the four opponents have combined to score just eleven runs in the games that Niese has started. The Mets bullpen has helped the cause as Niese has not gone deep into games. New York has a 2.51 bullpen ERA for the season, one of the best figures in baseball.
Kyle Kendrick has endured an inconsistent start to the season. Two starts ago he pitched eight innings of shutout ball, allowing just four hits. In his last start he did allow five runs in five innings but that outing came in Arizona, a ballpark that has been very tough on pitchers early this season. Kendrick has made just one home start this season and he should be in a better position for success in tonights game. Ten of the last twelve meetings between these teams played under and this total line figures to be inflated based on the high-scoring perception of the Phillies.
Jim Feist
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Texas Rangers
You always have to be careful about pitchers coming off the DL or making their first start in some time. That's the case here with Seattle lefty Cliff Lee. It's his first start this season, but also his first start for his new team having been traded in the offseason. He faces a very good Texas lineup. The Rangers have a surprise starter in Colby Lewis, who is 3-0 with a 3.80 ERA fanning 28 in 23 innings. Seattle is laying a big price as chalk, yet this offense is 11th in the AL in runs scored. Play the Texas Rangers!
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Angels (-120) at DETROIT
My FREE play run stands at 86-69-3 and tonight I have a comp winner coming in the American League as I payt he juice and play the Angels to get the best of the Tigers in Detroit.
This will be the second series between these two in the last 10 days after they split four games in Anaheim earlier this month.
On the hill for the Angels is Joel Pineiro (2-2, 3.42 ERA) who dominated the Tigers in that earlier series, blanking them over 7.1 innings, allowing nine hits with no walks and four strikeouts. He has dominated the Tigers in his career, going 7-2 with a 2.40 ERA in 12 career games against Detroit, including a 3-0 mark with a 1.45 ERA in three games at Comerica Park in Detroit.
Opposite Pineiro is the Tigers’ Rick Porcello (1-2, 7.91 ERA) who gave up six runs in 4.1 innings against the Angels in that series, losing 6-5.
The Angels are on hot streaks of 4-1 on the road, 8-3 on Friday 7-2 against winning teams, 13-6 after an off-day and 4-0 in series openers. On the other side, the Tigers have lost 13 of their last 16 series openers.
Detroit is just 1-5 in Porcello’s last six starts and in his two outings against the Angels in his career he’s allowed 10 runs on 14 hits in 9.1 innings.
I’m going with Pineiro in this one as he has owned the Tigers in his career and he’ll do it again tonight. Play Los Angeles.
2♦ L.A. ANGELS
Tom Freese
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Diego Padres
San Diego starter Clayton Richard has allowed just 10 runs total in his four starts this year. The Padres are 7-0 their last 7 home games and they are 11-2 their last 13 games overall. San Diego is 20-8 their last 28 games as home favorites and they are 7-1 their last 8 home starts made by Richard. Milwaukee starter David Bush lost 12-2 to Chicago in his last outing. The Brewers are 1-6 their last 7 games overall and they are 2-5 vs. lefty starters. Milwaukee is 8-25 in the last 33 starts made by Bush as road underdogs. PLAY SAN DIEGO
Matt Fargo
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Minnesota Twins
This is a solid price for the better team and the better pitcher in the underdog role. The Twins have gotten off to a great start this season with a 14-8 record including 8-5 on the road despite the recent series loss in Detroit. The Indians are home once again following a nine-game roadtrip where they went just 3-6. They are riding a four-game winning streak at home but any momentum from that has been lost with the long roadtrip following that. Minnesota has taken two of three from Cleveland already this season and dating back to last year it is 5-1 the last six meetings. The Twins send Kevin Slowey to the hill and the season has gotten off to an uneven start for him. He has a 3.42 ERA on the season which is solid but his 1.44 WHIP in surprising as control is Slowey’s specialty yet he has walked nine hitters so far this year. His best start this season was against the Indians where he allowed just one run on five hits in eight innings and most importantly, no walks. Slowey is 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in his last three starts against the Indians. The Indians counter with Fausto Carmona who is one of the early season surprises. He is 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA through his first four starts, all of which have been quality performances. I don’t know how long this can last and this is the best time to start going against. He is 3-6 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 10 career starts against Minnesota including going 0-4 with a 10.80 ERA and 2.26 WHIP in his last five. 3* Minnesota Twins
EZWINNERS
Florida Marlins -218
The Nationals will be up against Florida's starting pitcher Ricky Nolasco who is off to a nice 2-0 start this season with an ERA of 3.03. Nolasco has dominated Washington in the past as he is 7-1 with a 3.86 ERA in nine career starts against the Nats and in three starts against Washington last season, Nolasco went 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA and 18 strikeouts in the 18 innings pitched. I look for Nolasco's mastery of Washington to continue in this game. Washington's starting pitcher Craig Stammen is very inconsistent and has been hit hard by Florida in the two games he has pitched against the Fish. In seven innings of work, Stammen has allowed thirteen hits and eight earned runs against Florida. The Nationals are only 2-5 in Stammens last seven starts as a road underdog and the Marlins are 28-9 in the last thirty seven meetings between these two teams. Play on Florida.
Joel Tyson
I think the Atlanta Hawks just spit the bit, as Atlanta was on cruise control on Wednesday at home, leading by 9-points midway through the 4th quarter, then the wheels fell off.
Milwaukee close Game 5 on an 18-5 run to steal home court advantage back, and now have a chance to advance with the home win tonight.
I think the Bucks will do just that. Milwaukee has already controlled both of their home games in this series with wins and covers in Games 3 & 4, and you know full well they do not wish to head back to Philips Arena on Sunday for a 7th and deciding game.
Pressure is really on the higher-seeded Hawks, and if you ask me, they are going to choke it away again tonight.
4♦ MILWAUKEE
Brett Atkins
Tonight I'm going to the NBA playoffs for a comp play on the Bucks as they finish off the Hawks in Milwaukee.
Where has Milwaukee come from? These guys looked bad in the first two games in Atlanta, but since then they have found their game and the Game 5 upset in Atlanta had the Hawks snapping at each other as Atlanta blew that 10-point lead with about five minutes to play.
What the Bucks do is get outstanding guard play from Brandon Jennings and John Salmons and then the big guys play defense and crash the boards. Meanwhile, the Hawks tend to play too much one-on-one basketball and when Joe Johnson isn’t in the game they completely collapse.
If Milwaukee gets an early lead tonight, you’ll see the Hawks just pack it in.
Atlanta is on ATS slides of 0-5 after a straight-up loss and 1-5 after a non-cover. The Bucks are on ATS runs of 36-13-2 overall, 14-4 as an underdog and 33-16-2 after a straight-up win.
I’m going with the home team to eliminate the Hawks here tonight.
4♦ MILWAUKEE