Stephen Nover
I'm looking to fade Cliff Lee at this huge price as he makes his season debut as a Mariner having been sidelined all this time because of a strained abdominal muscle and five-game suspension.
Seattle isn't scoring a whole lot of runs, averaging 3.6 runs per game during its last eight contests.
Rangers starter Colby Lewis beat the Mariners, 5-1 in his first start this season. Lewis also defeated Detroit in his last start this past Sunday, retiring 15 of the last 16 hitters, while striking out 10.
Opposing hitters are batting only .136 off Lewis with runners in scoring position this season. Texas has won eight of the last 10 games in which Lewis has started.
2♦ RANGERS
VEGAS EXPERTS
Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks
The Atlanta Hawks held a double digit lead throughout Game Five in Atlanta and even had a nine-point lead with just over four minutes left in the game, but still managed to lose at home. It broke a 14-game home winning streak for the Hawks. Tonight they find themselves as small road favorites in Milwaukee. With everything on the line, they pull it out to get the series back to Atlanta for a Game Seven. Milwaukee is just 40-65 ATS after winning three or more games in a row. Go with the Hawks.
Play on: Atlanta Hawks
Sam Martin
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
The Indians are a small home favorite today against the Twins, and they start Fausto Carmona who has been very good so far in this young season. In four starts, Carmona is 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA, and hes coming off a good performance in Oakland where he allowed just one run over 7 1/3 innings. The Twins Slowey has been pretty good this year, too, but on the road he gives up way too many baserunners. In his 10 2/3 innings pitched away from home, hes allowed 15 hits and 5 walks ? nearing a 2.000 WHIP. We'll back the better pitcher here.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -140
Bottom Line: Zito is finally starting to earn that huge contract he signed a few years back. He's off to a 3-0 start with an ERA of just 1.32 and a WHIP of only 0.842. Zito has been extraordinary against the Rockies throughout his career. In fact, he is 4-2 (8-3 on the money line) lifetime with an ERA of 1.98 and a WHIP of 1.060. Aaron Cook is really struggling this season, especially on the road where he is 0-2 with an ERA of 9.72 and a WHIP of 2.281. He is just 7-9 (7-13 against the money line) with an ERA of 5.09 and a WHIP of 1.621 in his career when starting the Giants. He figures to have his work cut out for himself tonight against a Giants club that is hitting the ball pretty well. The Rockies are only 1-9 against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .275 or better over the last 2 seasons, losing to these teams by an average score of 4.5 to 7.9. Take the Giants.
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington +2.05 over FLORIDA
The Nats are really playing some good ball and remain the most undervalued team in the majors. They’re now 12-10, they’ve won two in a row and four of its last six and they’re getting solid pitching. Craig Stammen is a better pitcher than his 6.75 ERA suggests. He has outstanding command and has a good groundball ratio but has been rather unfortunate in a couple of starts. He’s been hit hard twice by the Phillies but his last two starts at Coors Field and at home against the Dodgers have both been quality starts. The Marlins have dropped two in a row and four of its last five. Ricky Nolasco has been a beast thus far but he was rocked in his only home start this season against the Reds. His quality starts have all been on the road. Nolasco has a career ERA of 4.36 in 93 starts, which isn’t bad but this guy is also not invincible. The Nats are warm while the Fish are cold and at this price the Nationals are most certainly worth a bet. Overlay. Play: Washington +2.05 (Risking 2 units).
TAMPA BAY –1½ +1.00 over Kansas City
Brian Bannister has gotten progressively worse in each of his four starts this season. He allowed just two runs in his last start against the Twins but that is very misleading. The Twins were torching the ball but everything was hit right at someone. Bannister allowed nine hits in six innings and didn’t strike out a single batter. He could be very fragile here and the potential for disaster is extremely high. His flyball to groundball ratio is one of the worst in the league and a close look reveals that in his first three starts he induced only 12 ground ball outs against 45 fly-outs. That’s an incredible and very troubling statistic. Now he’ll face the hottest team in the league and behind Bannister is a bullpen that couldn’t get Don Zimmer out. The Rays continue to put up big offensive numbers and they continue to give Jeff Niemann outstanding support. In fact, the Rays have scored 25 runs in Niemann’s last three starts, all wins. Niemann, by contrast, has been getting progressively better with each start. Niemann has built upon his promising second half of 2009, posting a 3.27 ERA over four starts and in two starts at home this year his BAA is just .172. He also has 15 K’s against just four walks and it sure is easier to pitch with a five run lead most of the time. His progression is unlikely to be halted here while Bannister is on the verge of blowing up. Play: Tampa Bay –1½ +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
Texas +1.37 over SEATTLE
Cliff Lee will make his season debut and could be working on a short leash here. He strained his back in spring training and is a step or two behind the rest of the league. Lee faced the Rangers once last season and was torched to the tune of seven earned runs in five innings. He might throw a good game but in no way could it be considered wise to lay 45 cents on him in his first start of the year. The Mariners are just 11-11 on the season and they’re facing one of the hottest pitchers in the business in Colby Lewis. Lewis has emerged out of nowhere but he has the numbers to support his strong start. In two road starts his BAA is just .205. In two of his four starts this season, Lewis has struck out 10 batters twice. He has 28 K’s in 23 frames thus far and has also pitched well at home, which is another indication how well he’s throwing. He’s keeping everything down and one has to believe it’s going to be extremely tough for the Mariners to score in this game. Give me a strikeout pitcher at Safeco that keeps the ball down, throw in a nice tag against a pitcher making his season debut and you can pencil me in. Play: Texas +1.37 (Risking 2 units).
MILWAUKEE +1.13 over Atlanta
This series is over tonight. Yeah, the Hawks possess more talent than the Bucks but Milwaukee wants it more while the Hawks are a complete mess. The Bucks dominated both games in Milwaukee and looking back over the past couple of years in the playoffs, the Hawks keep losing and they keep losing big. In fact, Atlanta’s average margin of defeat is an incredible 22 points over the past two playoff seasons. The Hawks had a nine-point lead in the fourth quarter at home in game five and could not sustain it. As soon as Milwaukee hit a bucket to take the lead the Hawks took a timeout and the finger-pointing started right on the bench during the timeout. This unit is a non-cohesive one and they’re in a heap of trouble. The Bucks are focused, they’re determined as hell and they have a wounded animal in waiting. The fact that the Hawks are favored here is absolutely ludicrous and with a huge and energetic crowd backing them, it says here they finish off this mentally soft intruder in very impressive fashion. The Hawks are being outplayed, outhustled and outcoached by a wide margin and if you make one wager today, this should be it. Play: Milwaukee +1.13 (Risking 3 units).
UTAH –5 over Denver
Unlike the Hawks, the Nuggets came out in game four and played like they wanted to win. The game was close for the most part but in the end the Nuggets finished what they started. However, the Nuggets are another team that can’t be trusted once they hit the road in adverse conditions. This line alone suggests that the books give Denver very little chance of pulling the upset and after watching this series thus far, who can argue. The Nuggets are individuals and care more about their own stats than they do about winning. The Jazz are the epitome of team concept. Every player has a role and every player accepts it with great enthusiasm and pride. Jerry Sloan is the master of preparation while the Nuggets are without George Karl to keep them focused and in line. This is game seven for the Jazz. For them, they’ll approach this one like there’s no tomorrow. Like the Bucks, the Jazz will finish off this series in impressive fashion and it could get ugly. The Nuggets are ripe to get beat because on the road, this is a very average team with very little heart. Play: Utah –5 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
PITTSBURGH –1½ +1.21 over Montreal
One has to believe that the Canadiens might need a game or two to recover from that last series in which they played their hearts out for 60 minutes of every game. They received outstanding goaltending from Jaroslav Halak and that’s the only reason they were able to move on. Take nothing away from the Habs, as they deserved to win that series but this series is going to show the difference between Crosby/Malkin and Overchkin/Semin. You see, Crosby refuses to lose. His heart and determination are as big as his talent and it rubs off on the whole team. Crosby carried Team Canada over the Russians in dominating fashion and in game seven between the two last season, the Pens blew away the Caps 6-2. The Habs are in a huge letdown spot tonight while the Pens are well rested and raring to go. The Pens will have a game plan to counter the Canadiens strategy of blocking shots and they’ve had days to prepare. The Canadiens collective minds might be in this one but they’re bodies may not after an exhausting series against the Caps. Play: Pittsburgh –1½ +1.21 (Risking 2 units).
JR O'Donnell
PIT / MON Over 5.5
We are going "Over" tonight as the Canadians area a tired bunch of hockey players. To have 3 monster games in 5 days, even to the most seasoned veterans, that takes its toll, The Montreal net minder Halak will come crashing back to earth in Pittsburgh. He has stopped 131 out of 134 shots, unheard of stats, especially vs. the Caps - WOW. He gets toasted tonight and the 1-1 career record vs. the Pittsburgh Pens with 7 goals allowed is more like it. Crosby, the hardest worker in the league, has 11 goals and 14 assists vs. the Cans. On the flip side, The Penquins net minder Fleury has a .891 save % which is weak, as he allows 2.78 gpg and we expect a few from the Cans tonight.
Stan Lisowski
Minnesota
The Twins are both 6-1 in the first game of a series and off of a loss this year. They have won 9 of 15 games against the AL Central. Cleveland is 5-9 against right-handed starters.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 -114
The Rays are worth a shot tonight when you consider how well they have been swinging the sticks. With yesterday's 11-1 win, the Rays have now won 5 straight games by at least 2 runs. In fact, they have won 13 of their last 16 games by 2 or more runs. They have also been dominant against the Royals, winning 4 of their last 5 games against them while outscoring KC 37-12. The Royals are only averaging 4.4 runs per game this season. This is significant because Tampa Bay is 14-2 vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season, defeating them by an average score of 7.4 to 2.6. Also, I'm glad to be backing Niemann here as the Rays have won his last 3 starts while he has posted a solid 3.48 ERA. The Royals have dropped both of Bannister's road starts this season, during which he has posted a 6.17 ERA. We'll take the Rays on the Run Line tonight.
John Ryan
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Kansas City Royals
3* graded play on Kansas City as they take on Tampa Bay set to start at 7:10 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that KC will win this game. These are the plays I have grown to really like over my 17-year career. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 35-26 making 37.1 units since 1997. Play against all favorites with a money line of -150 or more where team's hitters strike out 7 or more times/game on the season and after scoring 7 runs or more 3 straight games. Teams, like TB, become very over valued after an extended winning streak. They are 17-5 and this line reflects public sentiment that they will continue at this torrid pace for the entire season. TB is just 2-10 (-11.5 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 10 games over the last 2 seasons. This demonstrates just how vulnerable hot teams can become. Another example was just this past week when our model graded +220 Pirates as a 10* Titan and they defeated the Brewers 7-3. Take KC.
Wunderdog Sports
Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Utah Jazz -5
The Utah Jazz have had no problems scoring in this series as they have averaged over 110 points per game. That is a key marker for game six as the Utah Jazz have been virtually unstoppable when they reach that 110 mark at home, as they are 20-0 straight-up and a sizzling 18-1-1 ATS. The Nuggets were covering everything in sight last season, but are just 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21. Jazz 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 as a favorite. Denver is a horrible 2-10 ATS this season on the road when playing a very good team (.600 to .700). The Nuggets desperately miss George Karl and that will catch up with them here. Utah is 17-4 ATS this season off a road loss including 9-1 if that loss was by double-digits. Utah is the better team right now and they close out this series tonight with a win and cover.
Teddy Covers
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: New York Mets
The Mets are the hottest team in baseball, coming off a 9-1 homestand; their best homestand since 1988. New York spent the entire homestand finding ways to win – good starting pitching, excellent bullpen work and timely hitting up and down the batting order.
The Phillies have played sub .500 baseball since their 8-2 start; just 4-7 in their last eleven ballgames. Their bats have gone cold, hitting just .235 as a team in their last ten games. Their starting pitching has been mediocre aside from Roy Halladay at the top of the rotation. And Philadelphia’s suspect bullpen has been struggling, not likely to appreciably improve this evening, despite the return of much maligned closer Brad Lidge from the DL. Remember, Lidge led the majors in blown saves last year.
Tonight’s starting pitching matchup doesn’t give Charlie Manuel’s squad much of an edge. Kyle Kendrick has allowed five runs or more in three of his four starts. It’s surely worth noting that his lone quality start came against an Atlanta team that can’t hit their way out of a wet paper bag these days. In Kendrick’s lone previous start at Citizens Bank Ballpark, he failed to make it out of the second inning against Washington.
Meanwhile, the Mets Jonathan Niese has allowed only a single earned run in his last two starts combined. The Phillies have yet to face the young lefty; usually an advantage for the pitcher. And the Mets bullpen behind him ranks second in the NL in both ERA and batting average against, quite capable of shutting down the Phillies bats in the latter stages of the ballgame. 2* Take the Mets.
Larry Ness
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
Will the real New York Mets stand up. Are they the team which opened 4-8 or the team which just completed a 9-1 homestand (best since 1988) and open a three-game series tonight in Philadelphia on a seven-game winning streak? The Phillies know the Mets well, having edged them for the NL East title in both 2007 (by one game) and 2008 (by three games), before blowing them away in 2009 when the Mets finished 23 games behind the Phils. New York has more momentum heading into this series but don't count the Phillies out in this first meeting of the clubs this year. New York lefty Jonathon Niese (0-1, 3.68 ERA) has gotten one or zero runs of support in THREE of his four starts this year and let's note that the Phillies were an impressive 15-7 at home vs lefties in 2009. Getting the call for the Phillies is Kyle Kendrick, who is likely in the rotation only until Joe Blanton returns from the DL. Kendrick was 10-4 (3.87 ERA) as a rookie back in 2007, as the Phils went 13-7 in his 20 starts. However, his ERA ballooned to 5.49 in 2008, although his was still 11-9 and the Phillies a surprising 18-12 in his starts. He saw limited action last year, making just nine appearances (two starts). He went a career high-tying eight innings and allowed no runs and four hits in Atlanta vs the Braves on on April 20 but this past Sunday in Arizona, allowed eight hits, four walks and five ERs over five innings (Phils lost, 8-6). His ERA is 7.71 on the year (team is 1-3 in his starts) but he's 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA in five starts against the Mets in his career. Blanton is expected to come off the DL in early May and Kendrick has to know it's "now or never," if he wants any chance of staying in the starting rotation. I think this is a good spot for him, as the Mets are playing "way over their heads" right now. Take Philly.
Black Widow
1* on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 -110
Tampa Bay owns the best record in baseball at 17-5. 14 of the Rays' 17 wins have come by 2 runs or more. So basically they have won 14 out of their 22 games by multiple runs. This team has no problem putting runs on the board, which gives us no problem taking them on the Run Line. The Rays are 15-4 against Kansas City over the last 3 seasons, winning 12 times by 2 runs or more. So essentially they have won 12 of their 19 meetings with the Royals over the last 3 years by multiple runs. The Rays are the highest-scoring team in baseball at 6.5 runs/game. Starter Jeff Neimann is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.045 WHIP through 4 starts this year. Niemann is 2-0 with a miniscule 0.53 ERA and 0.412 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts vs. Kansas City, both taking place last season. Take Tampa Bay on the Run Line.
Jack Jones
Boston Red Sox -152
Boston is 30-9 against Baltimore over the last 3 seasons. The Orioles are the worst team in baseball this year and the Red Sox should have no problem making easy work of them Friday. The Red Sox come in on 1 days' rest while Baltimore played the Yankees last night, losing 4-0. The Red Sox are 45-18 in their last 63 games following an off day.
The Orioles are 1-8 in their last 9 home games. The Orioles are 0-6 in David Hernandez's last 6 home starts. John Lackey is 9-3 with a 3.21 ERA in 13 career starts against Baltimore. Hernandez is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA in 5 career starts against Boston. Take the Red Sox.
Dan Bebe
SDP (-125) vs MIL
I think you have to love backing a groundball pitcher at Petco. There's just so much room, and even if the Brewers elevate a few of Richard's sinkers, the outfield should hold them.
One of the biggest reasons to like this play is how hot the Padres have been. When everyone thought they'd fall off after the 8-game winning streak came to an end, San Diego regrouped, came home, and clobbered the hell out of Milwaukee in the opener of this series.
The Brewers are really struggling. Their pitching is unpredictable, their bullpen is atrocious, and the offense only hits against the Pirates.
And, on top of all of that, the Padres one power hitter, Adrian Gonzalez, is 7-for-9 off Bush. That is true and complete "ownage", and Gonzalez should help with some Padres rallies tonight.
Short write-ups as I gear up for my drive around the Eastern US, but suffice it to say that we've seen positive line movement in this game, we have a great match-up, and we have a Padres team that is brimming with confidence.
Play on San Diego to keep rolling along!
TEX (+131) vs SEA
The Texas Rangers are Cliff Lee's arch nemesis.
Ian Kinsler returns for Texas tonight, and he's batting over .500 against Lee in his career. Josh Hamilton is batting .400 against Lee, and Michael Young is batting in the mid-300's. This is truly the one team that Cliff Lee hasn't had great success against, and there's absolutely a reason why the 2009 Playoff's best pitcher is just a -140 favorite at home against a Texas team that isn't very good.
Colby Lewis is off to a nice start, the Mariners aren't really hitting, and I happen to think Texas rolls into town and steals the first game of this series behind a better-than-average pitching performance from Lewis, and a better-than-expected offensive performance from the Rangers position players.
I also like that the Mariners bullpen, which was lights out last year, has had a few road bumps early in 2010. This is a tremendous value, so let's hop on board before the line continues to fall!
Play on Texas.