Tony George
MIL +2 vs ATL
I will go against the public line move. They have DOMINATED Atlanta and rendered Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby useless in the backcourt for the Hawks the last 3 games. I am as surprised as many the way Milwaukee has played so well in this series with a young team, and little depth, but overall the defense has given the Hawks fits and they have manhandled the Hawks at home.
If you look at the numbers and stats for the last 5 games they are damn near even in every stat category. So you go with the hot team that is rolling with no fear at home, and the better coached team, and that is the Bucks, hands down. I have a feeling they win this by 3-5 points late in the game.
Nite Owl Sports
Atlanta Hawks @ Milwaukee Bucks
Pick: Milwaukee Bucks +2
The Atlanta Hawks breezed through the first two games of this series with a pair of 10-point wins, and were over confident for game 3. And having to spend 3 days with “nothing to do” (as per several Hawks players) in Milw didn’t help either. The result was that they got tarred and feathered by the young, determined Bucks, who did a much better job (than in game two in Atlanta) adjusting to the faster tempo they have been forced to go to (as opposed to the patient half-court sets used with center Andrew Bogut, lost for the season with an injury 9 games ago), now with the offense spear-headed by talented and consistently improving rookie point guard Brandon Jennings either attacking the basket or (along with the more consistent shooting guard John Salmons) jacking up numerous trey attempts. And despite Atlanta being focused and determined for game 4, the Bucks did it to them again, with 55% shooting, 28-32 FTs (87.5%), and 67 points from their “new big 3” of Jennings, Salmons and versatile guard/fwd, the 6’ 6” Carlos Delfino. But the real shocker was in game five, where Milw returned to the scene of their two “rain wrecks” in games one and two, and wiped out an early 4Q deficit of 10 points by outscoring the Hawks by 14 the rest of the way with some spirited, determined play to get the upset victory.
And now the reeling Hawks, losers of 3 straight, must again hit the road, where they have a long history of struggling in the playoffs. Going back to 1990, the Hawks are a dreadful 8-31 SU on the road, including a rancid 1-15 SU in their last 15 road playoff games. In sharp contrast, the Bucks have really been cashing in whenever the point spread is within the +3 to -3 range, like it is here, going a ridiculous 26-9 ATS TY in that range, including those two wins in games 3 and 4 and going 3-1 SU TY at home vs the Hawks. And the aptly named Bucks (as in dollars, not deer), under the radar most of the year, are a wallet-stuffing 37-15-2 ATS overall in their last 53 games.
So we like the Bucks to win this game and move on the the next round, but it won’t be easy against a talented and equally motivated Hawks team which is now desperate, facing elimination. So we’ll take the 2 point cushion ATS and the Bucks at +2 for 3 units.
MTi Sports
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Diego Padres
David Bush is a starter that needs to go deep into a game to stay focused. When he is off a start in which he lasted at least seven innings, the Brewers are a solid 12-2. However, when he did not make it to the fifth inning in his last start, the Brewers are 0-9, losing by an average of 3.44 runs per game. In Bushs last start, he was bombed by the Cubs for nine runs on ten hits and two walks in 3 and two-thirds. This put him in a play-against situation here. Take the Padres.
Info Plays
3* on Thunder/Lakers UNDER 194.5
Reasons this game goes UNDER:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (LA LAKERS) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in April games. This is a 45-18 UNDER System hitting 71.4% over the last 5 seasons.
2.) The Lakers and Thunder are more familiar with each other now that we have entered Game 6. Each team knows what they have to do to stop the strengths of each offense, and as a result Game 6 should be a defensive battle. The Lakers are 7-0 UNDER in road games after 2 straight games with 10 or less offensive rebounds this season. L.A. is 22-8 UNDER when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons. With an extra day to prepare for Game 6, there's no question that it favors a low-scoring defensive game. Bet the UNDER.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Lakers/Thunder UNDER 195
Plays Under on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in April games, are 86-43 the last 5 seasons. In addition, plays Under on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (LA LAKERS) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in April games, are 45-18 the last 5 seasons. With LA fighting hard to close this series out, and OKC fighting hard to stay alive, I expect both teams to bring the "D" tonight, resulting in the Under.
Nelly
NY Mets + over Philadelphia
Jonathan Niese has allowed just one earned run in his last two starts, spanning eleven innings. While the Phillies have a feared offensive team, Philadelphia has averaged just 3.6 runs per game over the last ten games and that figure should be even lower as Tim Lincecum's gem was wasted by the Giants bullpen on Wednesday. Niese has poor road numbers but his only start away from home came in Colorado and the Mets are riding a great deal of positive momentum right now. Kyle Kendrick pitched eight innings of shutout ball in one of his starts this season but that effort came against an Atlanta lineup that is really struggling. His other three starts have featured just over ten innings of work and 16 runs allowed. Walks have been a problem with as many free passes as strikeouts and his worst start of the season was his lone home outing. The Mets have scored at least three runs in nine of the last ten games while averaging close to five runs per game in that span. The Mets have one of the best bullpens in baseball this season with a 2.51 ERA. The Phillies are just 3-3 at home and the defending NL champions continue to be overvalued. The Mets have been a very profitable team this season and this should be another great opportunity.