Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, April 4

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City
The White Sox open their series against the Royals today and come in with a 6-1 record in their last 7 games at Kansas City. Chicago is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the White Sox favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+125).

Game 901-902: Atlanta at Washington (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hale) 16.085; Washington (Zimmermann) 15.122
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 903-904: Philadelphia at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hernandez) 14.314; Cubs (Wood) 15.899
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-140); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-140); N/A

Game 905-906: San Francisco at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Vogelsong) 15.240; LA Dodgers (Ryu) 16.778
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-165); Under

Game 907-908: Arizona at Colorado (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Delgado) 14.982; Colorado (Nicasio) 13.842
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-140); 10
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+120); Over

Game 909-910: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Miller) 15.589; Pittsburgh (Cole); 14.122
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-105); Under

Game 911-912: Cincinnati at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 15.671; NY Mets (Mejia) 14.106
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-115); Over

Game 913-914: San Diego at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stults) 16.135; Miami (Koehler) 14.938
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Miami (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-110); Over

Game 915-916: Baltimore at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gonzalez) 15.785; Detroit (Sanchez) 17.103
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-170); Under

Game 917-918: Minnesota at Cleveland (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Pelfrey) 13.232; Cleveland (Salazar) 15.870
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-180); Over

Game 919-920: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Johnson) 15.504; Kansas City (Guthrie) 14.454
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+125); Under

Game 921-922: NY Yankees at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Tanaka) 15.774; Toronto (McGowan) 14.655
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-145); Over

Game 923-924: Texas at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Saunders) 16.458; Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 15.403
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+125); Under

Game 925-926: LA Angels at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Richards) 14.918; Houston (Harrell) 13.381
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-150); Over

Game 927-928: Seattle at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Young) 16.743; Oakland (Straily) 15.855
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+115); Under

Game 929-930: Milwaukee at Boston (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Estrada) 14.965; Boston (Peavy) 17.494
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-165); Over

Rob Vinciletti

Detroit vs. Brooklyn
Play: Over 204.5

This game fits a nifty totals system that has cashed 16 of 21 times playing the over for rested home favorites that scored 90 or less as a road dog and lost to the spread by 14+ points, and had no prior rest before that loss and are now playing a team that scored 90 or more as a road dog. Brooklyn has flown over in 12 of 14 on Fridays and 5 of the last 7 after scoring 85 or less. The Pistons have been an over team all season and have posted overs in 19 of 27 vs winning teams, and 18 of their last 23 April games. Look of this one to go over the total tonight.

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Lee WilliamsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia vs. BostonFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 208FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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These 2 teams are a combined 80-67 Under this season and have already met twice in 2014,so are familiar with one and another and obviously neither is burning up scoreboards.76ers are 14-5 Under when revenging a home loss vs opponent Celtics are off a blowout loss and have actually responded well after allowing a lot of points, they are 14-7 Under after a loss by 10 points or more and obviously it wont take an enormous effort to keep this 76ers team in low 90s or below.

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Washington Wizards at New York KnicksFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: New York KnicksFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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How 'bout them Knicks! Just a game out of a playoff spot behind Atlanta, thanks to a recent 12-3 SU run in their best stretch of the season. But let's not get carried away - they're still losers with a record ten games under .500. Both A'mare and J.R. have stepped up their games recently, with Smith knocking down nine treys in a game last week against the Kings, and Melo is having another great season as the top scorer in the league not named Durant. This is a game they need like blood, and they've owned the Wizards of late, going 18-8 SUATS in the last 26 meetings, including 10-1 SUATS at the Garden. Meanwhile, after surging into the No. 6-slot in the current Eastern Conference playoff chase, the Wizards appear to be hitting the wall, going just 3-9 ATS in their previous 12 games at press time. They are also coming into this one off a revenger with the Celtics, a spot in which they are 4-17 SU and 6-15 ATS, including 1-8 SUATS versus a foe with revenge. Washington is struggling with nagging injuries as Marcin Gortat is having back troubles and Bradley Beal is dealing with ankle and hip issues, but it appears that Nene is nearly set to return. Until that happens, this looks like a great spot for the Knicks to pick up ground on the Wizards, whose early-season magic is beginning to fade. We recommend a 1-unit play on New York.

Scott Spreitzer

Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -140

When I did my season preview on the American League West, I mentioned that Seattle was a team that I believed would be competitive in the division this summer, maybe a season away from making big strides. One of the reasons was addition by subtraction, parting ways with Aaron Harang and Joe Saunders. Well, Saunders is now the Rangers' problem and I expect the lefty to struggle tonight against arguably the best team in the AL East. Tampa plated about 5 rpg in home night action against southpaws last season and should have little trouble in this one. Jake Odorizzi takes the mound for the Rays. The 24-year old righty pitched quite well at the minor league level and beat out Cesar Ramos and Erik Bedard for the 5th spot in the rotation. I expect Odorizzi to receive plenty of support at the plate and to lead the Rays to a win on Friday. I'm recommending a play on the Rays.

Jim Feist

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers +4

Cleveland is playing hard for coach Mike Brown, off a blowout win at Orlando. Cleveland is on an 8-1 ATS run and the Cavaliers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games. The Cavaliers beat the Magic 119-98 behind 26 points from Dion Waiters and 20 each from Spencer Hawes and Tristan Thompson. The easy win moved the Cavaliers within two games of New York and Atlanta for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Cavaliers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Atlanta is having all kinds of problems on defense, 20th in the NBA in points allowed and 23rd in field goal shooting defense. Atlanta has been a huge money-burner, on a 5-22-1 ATS run! The Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings, so grab the motivated visitors.

Timothy Black

Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians -1½ +121

The Indians started the season very well taking 2 of 3 games on the road against Oakland while the Twins went on the road and saw their pitching give up 7 runs/game. Friday, the Twins stay on the road and head to Cleveland, where they are just 3-7 in their last 10 trips. Also, the Twins are only 1-6 in Pelfrey's last 7 road starts while the Indians are 42-15 in their last 57 games as a favorite. Take the run line and look for the Indians to extend their 6 game winning streak over the Twins.

Art Aronson

Wizards vs. Knicks
Play: Over 196½

The Wizards are rolling and looking to keep their winning ways going strong into the playoffs. Most recently Washington would hammer Boston 118-92 on Wednesday. The victory clinched the franchise its first playoff spot since 2008. Washington would shoot a blistering 62.5% vs. the Celtics for its highest mark since 1996 (note that Washington has interestingly seen the total go “over” the number in 10 of 14 after a win by 10 points or more). New York hasn’t given up yet, far from it in fact, winner of 12 of its last 15, moving just a few percentage points ahead of the Atlanta Hawks for the East’s final playoff spot. "We want to get there. That's the goal," Knicks’ All Star Carmelo Anthony assessed last night. "Despite this emotional season, this up-and-down season, I think it would be a big deal to get in that spot." Most recently New York would stomp Brooklyn 110-81 on Wednesday and it’s out for some redemption tonight as well after losing the first two games of this series (note that New York has seen the total go “over” the number in 12 of 18 this year in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent). Definitely consider a second look at the “over” in this one.

Ray Monohan

Detroit Pistons vs. Brooklyn Nets
Play: Detroit Pistons +10

The Nets lost badly on the road against the Knicks this week. I am not doom and gloom on BK but I think absent Kevin Garnett they might have a tough time tangling with that big athletic front line of Detroit. The Pistons have beaten them all three times they have played this season so I don’t see how all of a sudden they are a 10 point dog, especially when they can play fast and loose with nothing on the line.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago CubsFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Chicago CubsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cubs return home for their opener as they host the Phillies. Roberto Hernandez makes his first start for Philadelphia. He is coming off his worst start of the Spring giving up seven runs and 11 hits in just over 3.2 innings. The starter wasn't overwhelming, but he didn't really have much competition for his spot. The Cubs offense produced the hits in Pittsburgh, but it didn't produce the runs. Travis Wood pitched well in Spring Training outside of one outing against Colorado. Wood pitched well against Philadelphia last year allowing two runs and six hits in just over six innings. He struck out seven while walking only one. Marlon Byrd (3-14), Ryan Howard (0-6) and Jimmy Rollins (2-10) all have poor numbers vs. the southpaw although Rollins may not be with the team. The Phillies blew up in their first game, but whimpered out after that. They have struggled against left-handed pitching traditionally. We'll take Chicago to get that second win of the season.

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LOS ANGELES ANGELS AT HOUSTON ASTROSVlSlT THESPREAD.COM
PLAY: LOS ANGELES ANGELS -133SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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I wrote about all the problems the Angels seem to have right now in yesterday’s blog. But the Halos aren’t going to lose them all, and I see them having great chance to register their first win this evening at Houston. It’s Garrett Richards vs. Lucas Harrell, and I’m looking for Richards to get the job done for the visitors.
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Richards has good stuff. His problem is that he doesn’t always know where it’s going. But I saw a different Richards in the second half of the 2013 season. He seemed to really figure out his off speed stuff, and while he’s never going to be a huge strikeout guy, Richards started generating more bad swings and resulting easier outs. I see Richards settling into what his role should be, which is a solid middle of the rotation guy who can chew up some innings and give his team a decent chance to win.
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I can’t say that about Lucas Harrell. He enjoyed a very surprising 2012 campaign, but that appears to have been an outlier. Harrell was terrible last season. His BB/K rate was awful and there simply was nothing misleading about his ghastly 6-176 record. I’m actually surprised Harrell ended up with a spot in the Houston rotation. The fact he’s their #4 starter for the time being is a serious indicator as to how weak the back end of the rotation for the Astros figures to be.
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The Astros figure to likely be without one of their best players this evening. Jason Castro is day to day after getting dinged last night, and the catcher might well be the most important player on their entire present roster. It’s not like there’s a whole lot to like about the Houston regulars, but they get even worse when forced to utilize the bench, as it’s mostly populated by Quad-A types at the very most.
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Getting out of Anaheim might be the best thing that can happen to the Angels right now. The bad start has already created some pressure, and putting on the road jerseys and playing in front of what doesn’t figure to be a packed house is a nice remedy. The Angels might finally be able to relax a little and just play some baseball.
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The Halos had some problems on this field last season and Harrell sports some goods numbers against the Angels. But I see Richards owning a pretty substantial edge here, and the idea of not having to pay a premium piece to fade one of the weakest starting pitchers at the major league level is fairly compelling. I like the Angels to break through for their first win of the 2014 season.

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New York Yankees at Toronto Blue JaysFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: New York YankeesFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Yankees had a busy offseason, as they committed $438 million to four free agents, including outfielders Carlos Beltran and Jacoby Ellsbury, and catcher Brian McCann. That spending spree came after the Yankees missed the playoffs for just the second time in 19 seasons (New York finished 85-77, its worst record since 1992)
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One of New York's marquee offseason acquisitions, Masahiro Tanaka, gets the ball Friday night as the Yankees visit the Blue Jays in Toronto's home opener. "I would think there will be a ton of attention on (Tanaka), just because of what he did last year in Japan, the contract he signed, who he signed it with and it being opening day in Toronto," Yankees manager Joe Girardi said.
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Tanaka cost the Yankees $175 million when they signed him in January, giving the 25-year-old right-hander a seven-year, $155 million contract, the highest ever for an international free agent plus paid a $20 million posting fee to his Japanese team, the Rakuten Golden Eagles. Tanaka earned that deal after finishing 24-0 with a 1.27 ERA in Japan last year. He was almost as sharp in his first big league spring training, going 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA in five games, striking out 26 and walking three in 21 innings. "We've seen him in spring training but you want to see what a guy's like when the real bright lights turn on," Girardi said. "We expect him to do just fine, but you still want to see him."
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Tanaka flew out of Houston around midday Thursday to get to Toronto early and settle in before his debut. Before leaving, he said through an interpreter that his excitement level was "getting up there" ahead of Friday's start. "I'm sure I will be amped up a little bit but not to the point where I'm worried about that," Tanaka said. "I feel honored that I'm getting this sort of attention. But for me it's just going up on the mound and trying to get outs."
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Also trying to control his emotions will be Toronto's starter Dustin McGowan, who'll be making his first big league start since September 2011. McGowan missed all of 2012 with foot and shoulder injuries and made 25 appearances out of the bullpen last year, without a start."I'll be jacked up, excited," McGowan said of facing the Yankees in front of a sold-out stadium. "I keep thinking about it every day. I'm already ready to go. That day is going to be special."
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The oft-injured but undeniably talented McGowan, a first-round pick in 2000, also missed all of 2009 and 2010 with arm issues. He was a surprise addition to Toronto's rotation, earned the fifth spot after some late spring success and a string of poor starts by incumbent left-hander J.A. Happ. Toronto will be playing its home opener after splitting a four-game series in Tampa Bay to start the season.
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The Yanks lost their first two games at Houston this week but rebounded to win 4-2, last night (my PERFECT STORM). Tanaka had 99 wins in Japan and won his last 28 decisions since a loss on Aug 19, 2012 and displayed some solid stuff during spring training by striking out 26 batters against only three walks in 21 innings while posting a 2.14 ERA. As for McGowan, he won a rotation spot this spring after appearing in 25 games out of the Blue Jays bullpen in 2013. He has missed three full seasons due to various injuries and surgeries and again, will be his first his first start since 2011. McGowan threw one scoreless inning in relief against the Yankees last year and is 2-2 with a 5.47 ERA in 13 career games (eight starts) vs New York.
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The Yankees went 14-5 against the Blue Jays in 2013 and I'll take them to get off to a 1-0 start against Toronto behind Tanaka.

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Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay RaysFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Tampa Bay RaysFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rays are coming off a win over Toronto last night, salvaging a series split with the Blue Jays. They host Texas in the series opener in St. Petersburg Friday. The Rangers have been a little lucky lately, coming off a pair of ninth inning walk off wins. They are gonna need all the luck they can get tonight, with old man Joe Saunders on the mound. Saunders had a poor season in 2013, despite pitching mostly for the Mariners at pitcher friendly Safeco. He had just one meeting with the Rays, and it was a bit of a disaster, allowing seven runs on five hits over just 4 1/3 innings. Evan Longoria has two hits in eight career at bats versus the southpaw, but both of those left the ballpark. He also had an ugly spring, and he was lit up for nine runs in less than two innings his last time out, complaining of a dead arm. Tampa will counter with 24 year old Jake Odorizzi, who impressed at the tail end of last season. He was pretty mediocre this spring, but will likely only need to be mediocre opposite Saunders tonight.

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Jimmy Boyd

Pittsburgh Pirates -117

The Pirates are showing great value here as a small home favorite against division rival St Louis. Pittsburgh got off to a strong start, taking 2 of 3 from the Cubs and I like there chances of adding to that against a Cardinals team that had a draining first series against the Reds. St Louis had lengthy rain delays before taking the field each of the last two days and I could see them coming out flat tonight.

Both teams send out a couple of young starters who are looking to build off a promising rookie season. Pittsburgh's Gerrit Cole went 10-7 with a 3.22 ERA over 19 starts, while the Cardinals' Shelby Miller finished 16-9 with a 2.94 ERA.

While this may appear to be a toss-up, Miller was 0-4 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.727 WHIP in his four starts versus the Pirates. Cole on the other hand was 1-1 with a dominant 2.45 ERA and 0.636 WHIP in his two starts against St Louis.

Pittsburgh is 41-19 in their last 60 games as a home favorite and 8-2 in their last 10 games dating back to last season as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Pirates are also 4-1 in Cole's last 5 starts as a home favorite and 4-1 in his last 5 versus division rivals.