Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia vs. BostonFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: PhiladelphiaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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As bad as the Sixers may be, Boston shouldn't be favored by this many points against any opponent....
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The Celtics lost their sixth straight game Wednesday when they were blown out by the Wizards 118-92. They have also lost 11 of 12. Incredibly, the one win was against Miami. But since then they have covered just one time, so this is hardly a team you'd want to be caught laying double digits with. In fact, looking through the entire season, Boston has won only five times by more than 10 points!
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Since snapping their record-tying 26-game losing streak, Philadelphia played a competitive game (in Atlanta), then was blown out by 30 at home by Charlotte. They are still 6-3 ATS their last nine. The last time these teams played, it ended up being a six-point game. While Boston would obviously like to end its own skid here, winning only hurts bad teams for the lottery this time of year. So Ill take the points.
SC Live Dogs
Houston Astros +120
The Astros? Who are they? Why are we betting on them to the beat Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton on Friday? Well for one, this is your classic case of one team being undervalued and another team being overvalued. The Astros will continue to be undervalued throughout the season and it is our job to find the right spots to bet them. We believe that Friday will be a perfect situation to back them at a valuable +120. Going into Thursday’s action, the Astros are 2-0 against the Yankees while facing Sabathia & Kuroda. In those two games, the Astros were able to win as dogs of +130 & +150. On the mound for the ‘Stros will be Lucas Harrell who makes his 2014 debut. In Harrell’s 2013 debut, he faced the Rangers AT home where he allowed just 1 run through 6 innings on 2 BBs & 4 Ks. Harrell has faced the Angels just three times in his career, all coming in 2013. In those three starts, Harrell allowed a combined 3 runs through 17 innings on 14 hits & 13 Ks. The Angels come into Fridays action starting the season off 0-3 against the Mariners were they were favorites of -115, -165 & -145. Garrett Richards will be on the mound who has shown little success in his two career starts against the Astros, both coming in 2013 & both AT Angel Stadium of Anaheim. In those two starts, Richards allowed a combined 9 runs through 12 innings on 15 hits, 2 HRs & 8 Ks. The Astros have a combined 40 ABs off of Richards where they have a .350 average. With the bullpens more than likely playing a large factor in this series, we cannot overlook them in this opening game. The Angels come in with a 10.80 era through 10 innings where they have allowed a whopping 5 HRs on 7 BBs & 14 Ks. The Astros pen has not had to labor much yet only allowing 3 runs through 6 innings on 4 BBs, 7 Ks & 0 HRs. With the Astros coming into Fridays game with a bit of confidence, we will back them at +120.
Jeffrey James
Phoenix Suns +4.5
You want domination of a series??? Phoenix has covered 9 of the last 10 including the last 7 in a row in this series. Not only that the Suns are 26-10 ATS their last 36 road games. Look for Phoenix to come with a big effort since they are off of 2 consecutive SU and ATS losses. Take the points with the Suns as the play of the day for Friday.
River City Sharps
LA Dodgers -160
We aren't a big fan of playing home favorites normally at this type of price, but it looks like Ryu may be something really special for the Dodgers. He has a 1-0 record to start the season, but has been really tough to hit as he has yet to give up an earned run in 12 innings of work and only 5 hits, along with 4 BB and 12 strikeouts. We would consider looking at the run line, but Vogelsong has also pitched well early and are more comfortable with the ML in this spot.
MLB Predictions
Yankees / Blue Jays Under 8
I will make the trip 2 hours north to Toronto to watch the Blue Jays home opener against the Yankees and their prize free agent pick up in starting pitcher Masahiro Tanaka. To give you an example of how good Takana can be, he was 24-0 last year in his Japan league with a 1.27 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. The righty is 25 years old and cashed in with a huge contract for himself. So far this spring he looks like exactly what the Yankees thought they were getting as he pitched 21 innings allowing just 5 runs with 26 strikeouts and just 3 walks. Batters hit just .190 against him and he had a 0.86 WHIP. Dustin McGowan is another pitcher for Toronto that most people outside of Toronto probably forgot about. McGowan made 27 starts in 2007 with the Blue Jays, but has since dealt with injuries. Last year he came back as a reliever for Toronto and held a 2.45 ERA over 25 appearances as he held opponents to a low .190 batting average. His official Spring Training stats have him at just 7 innings giving up 3 runs with 7 strikeouts, but he has also had a lot of success in Minor League games the Jays had him starting in to get stretched out. He should be good for somewhere around 85 pitches in the home opener if he is pitching well. The Blue Jays didn’t use any of their top relievers Thursday night, so all should be available for the late innings as needed. Neither the Blue Jays or Yankees have done much at the plate to date, with the Jays hitting .205 as a team and the Yankees .200. This game has pitching duel written all over it, with neither team too familiar with the others starter.
Wunderdog
Baltimore vs. Detroit
Pick:Baltimore +157
The Detroit Tigers are the popular choice to win the AL East this season. They have won a pair of games by a single run, and Canrera, and Hunter have combined to go just 1-15 with no HRs or RBI. They will need more from them to keep winning going forward. The Tigers continue to have a weakness, and that is closing out games. They brought in Joe Nathan, but he blew his first save opportunity of the season. Baltimore has to like what they have gotten from Miguel Gonzalez, as he closed last season with five September starts, allowing no more than 3 earned runs in any of them. The Tigers dropped all of the last four starts by Sanchez as a favorite last season, and Baltimore has done well in this series with six wins in the last eight meetings, including four of the last five in Detroit.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia +133 over CHICAGO
Not interested in the Cubs spotting a tag like this against anyone, especially when the pitching matchup doesn’t favor them by a wide margin. In this case, we’re not even sure the pitching matchup favors the Cubs. Roberto Hernandez got a new name last year and some new skills. Hernandez posted his best strikeout rate since his Fausto days and the best command of his career. He perhaps deserved better, as he completely outpitched his 4.89 ERA with a very respectable xERA of 3.53. Blame it on his horrific hr/f but with his solid groundball/fly-ball ratio of 53%/24%, he's worth a bit of speculation.
Travis Wood was a pleasant surprise in 2013. Seemingly out of nowhere, he posted career-bests in ERA, WHIP, and Ks. However, a quick glance at Wood's skills indicates the success will likely be short-lived. Wood's breakout was fueled by luck more than anything else. A trifecta of fortunate hit%, strand%, and hr/f converged all at once. Don't expect that to happen again. There really wasn't any growth under the hood. Wood’s K rate and other skills remained below league average and were both slightly down from his 2012 numbers. An xERA of 4.45 each of the last two years sets a much better expectation than 2013's ERA. Wood's ERA trend looks enticing on the surface but his skill set simply doesn't support this level of production over the long haul. A repeat of last season not only looks like a long shot but it also has Wood very overvalued.
Milwaukee +138 over BOSTON
Jake Peavy will continue to be overpriced because of his pedigree over the years and because of the team he pitches for. Problem is, Peavy’s skills faded badly down the stretch and have now been on a significant decline in three of his past four seasons. Peavy’s fly-ball rate over the last three years was 39%, 42% and an alarming 47% last year. As a fly-ball pitcher with poor durability and with close to 2000 career innings, Peavy's risk is starting to outweigh his reward and we’ll look to take advantage of that here.
A hamstring injury cost Marco Estrada a third of the season in 2013. When he returned he had a dominant second half. Estrada’s 2013 mirrored his superb second half in 2012, so he's showed plus-plus ability twice. Estrada is still flying under the radar, given that he has not topped 140 IP in a season during his career. That said, he was one of just 11 starters who have posted a 110+ base performance value during each of the last two seasons. This past spring, Estrada went 4-0 in six starts. He posted an ERA of 2.12 and walked just two hitters in 25 innings. Throwing in a hitter's park led to Estrada’s ERA-damaging HR in the first half of last year but his skills command our full attention. He’s on the cusp of the next level and is certainly worth a wager while still under the radar.
Arizona +121 over COLORADO
We’re all about value and there is no value whatsoever in playing a lot of these #4 and #5 starters in the rotation when spotting a price. Juan Nicasio of the Rockies is among that group. In 55 career starts, Nicasio has 15 wins. He has a career ERA of 4.92 with a WHIP of 1.45. Nicasio finally put together a full season a year ago but the results were less than expected. His strikeouts were down, especially in the first half and his command never reached an acceptable mark. Nicasio’s groundball/fly-ball split last year of 45%/34%, an unfortunate 66% strand rate and a K increase in the second half provide some hope but that’s been his story forever. At age 27 and without any great stretches in his career, Nocasio is just hanging onto his job and is not worth reaching for as a favorite.
The Diamondbacks are struggling with just one win in six starts but they faced some tough pitching in Australia and they’ve scored five runs or more in four of those six games. After playing San Fran and Los Angeles, the D-Backs take a step down in class when facing this Rockies team that lost three of four in Miami to open the year. Randall Delgado is another one of those #4 or #5 starters in the rotation but he’s not the one spotting a tag here and he does have better career numbers than Nicasio in terms of WHIP and ERA. Delgado is just 24 years old. There were mixed results for this former top prospect after his June call-up last year. He traded in Ks for more control but the net gain was minimal, although he did show some flashes. We also like that the Delgado has had some modest success against current Rockies with just eight hits allowed in 37 AB’s for a BAA of .216. Current D-Backs have a .310 BA against Nicasio in 58 career AB’s. Lastly, the Rockies bullpen has been atrocious (giving up 21 hits in 60 AB for an OBP of .426) and that was in four games at pitcher-friendly Marlins Park. Once the starters are out of this game and it’s tied, close or the D-Backs have the lead, our chances of winning increase even more. In the end, the Rockies-Nicasio-Rockies pen combo is one that does not warrant this price and we’re on it.
Chicago +138 over KANSAS CITY
When Jeremy Guthrie arrived in Kansas City in the middle of the 2012 season, it was probably a relief to leave behind the hitter’s parks of Coors Field and Camden Yards. He did well in the second half of 2012 and had 15 wins for the Royals in 2013. Guthrie may never see that success again. He doesn’t strike out many batters, even with good control, his command is lackluster. While Guthrie’s ERA approached 4.00 last year, xERA shows that he’s fundamentally the same pitcher he’s been for years. Expect some ERA regression in 2014. His general lack of dominance can be seen in his below average dominant start/disaster start split. You can see from Guthrie’s ERA and hit% history that only good fortune can nudge his ERA under 4.00. There are two things Guthrie excels at, eating innings and generating work for defenders behind him so when he inevitably blows up, don’t be the one caught laying a big price with him.
Erik Johnson has some solid upside. Problem is, he's got less than 150 IP in the high minors so there is some risk involved, but at this price against Guthrie, the South Side with Johnson going has some value. Johnson, 23, put up exceptional numbers in just his second full season and was rewarded with a September call-up. Johnson only allowed more than two earned runs in one of his 24 starts last season, coupled with a 131/40 K/BB ratio over 142 minor league innings. He is a physical pitcher (6'3, 235) with a power build, aggressive demeanor and approach on the mound. Johnson has shown improvement in both his repertoire and pitch sequencing and attacks hitters with a heavy 90-96 mph fastball, solid slider, curveball, and an improving change-up. He pounds the lower half of the zone, inducing lots of groundballs and his slider has become a reliable swing-and-miss out-pitch. Johnson got a little taste of the big leagues last year and that also is a positive. He does not project as a #1 or #2 starter but a very dependable #3 or #4 who can provide lots of innings with a good number of strikeouts and a solid ERA. That said, when a tag like this is offered against Guthrie, you can pencil us in almost every time and we certainly make no exception here.
OAKLAND -1 +101 over Seattle
It’s not customary for us to be spotting runs in this pitcher friendly park but this one warrants it. While Chris Young may be healthy now, this is a man who hasn't pitched since 2012 when he threw 115 innings that season. Prior to that, Young threw 24 innings and 20 innings in '11 and '10 respectively. If there was a health grade lower than F, Young would own it. What's more, and this is no misprint, Young has NEVER posted an xERA under 4.25 for any season in his career. Take that under advisement and stay as far away from this guy as possible.
Dan Straily may seem like a starting pitcher with a limited ceiling given his mediocre 3.96 ERA last season but there are more reasons for optimism if you give him a closer look. Straily’s high strikeout rates he posted in the minors is no mirage. He owns an elite 11.1% swinging strike rate at this level and he is dominant against RH bats. His command evaporates against lefties but he worked on that in the off-season along with a few other minor tweaks. Truth is, Straily has a filthy slider with a top-tier swinging strike rate. His prior profile as minors K leader suggests more strikeouts are coming. At age 24 and with his strikeout potential, Straily has 2014 breakout potential worth speculating on.
SPORTS WAGERS
COLUMBUS +100 over Chicago
OT included. The Blackhawks played at home last night against the weak traveling Wild and settled for a 3-2 OT win. Playing without Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane makes the Blackhawks a lot less intimidating and it sure doesn’t help that they are without a couple of regular defensemen as well. The Blackhawks have one regulation win in their last six games. They were shutout twice in those six contests and held to one goal once. The kicker here is that the Blackhawks have St. Louis on deck at home on Sunday.
Meanwhile, the Jackets have stepped it up. They are fighting for their playoff lives and they’re playing like it. Columbus accomplished the rare feat of shutting out the Flyers last night, 2-0. They’ve now picked up points in three straight and in four of its last five games. The Jackets have also held the opposition to two goals or fewer in five of their last six. Nationwide figures to be the loudest arena in the league tonight. These fans are hungry, enthusiastic and will certainly provide some energy to their team that is on the cusp of their second playoff appearance in their history. Columbus has an opportunity to pass Detroit for the first wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference and pull even in points with third-place Philadelphia in the Metropolitan Division. The Blue Jackets also can move three points ahead of Toronto for the second Wild Card. The recent form of these two suggests that Columbus is in a better position to emerge victorious and probably should not be billed as the underdog here.
NEW JERSEY -½ +139 over Washington
Regulation only. The Capitals have never performed well under pressure and that’s mostly when they were considered among the elite and one of the favorites to win it all. Alex Ovechkin is among the worst big name players to choke when it mattered most and this year is no different. In a position to make the playoffs just two weeks ago, Washington has dropped five of their last six with only victory over that span occurring against the Sharks in a game they had no business winning. In fact, one could look back and see that the Capitals are fortunate to have any wins over their past 15 games. Conceivably, the Caps could and probably should be on a 15-game losing streak. Over that 15-game stretch Washington has five wins. They defeated Vancouver 4-3 in a game they were outshot, 41-21. They defeated the Coyotes in a game they trailed 2-0 with less than 10 minutes remaining. They defeated Anaheim in a game they were outshot 45-30. They defeated L.A. 5-4 in a game they were badly outplayed in and finally they defeated Toronto 4-2 and were even outshot by the Leafs. Washington’s 25 regular season and OT wins this year (excluded shootouts) is ahead of only Buffalo, Florida, the Islanders and Edmonton. They are now four points out of a Wild Card spot and the Devils have a chance to leapfrog over them and put the final nail in their coffin. Based on the Caps play and lack of diminishing heartbeat, it’s hard to envision it turning out any other way.
It’s actually amazing that Washington has more points than the New Jersey but you can blame it all on the Devils inability or poor record in shootouts and their curious decision to use Martin Brodeur in net way more often than they should have. What we know for sure is that New Jersey is so much better than the Devils in every sense. The Devils work much harder, they give up far fewer scoring chances and they want it more also. The Devils have allowed the fewest shots on net in the entire league while Washington has allowed the third most and play the majority of their games trying to get it out of their own zone. The Devils are an offensively challenged bunch that gets frustrated at times but for them, whether they make the playoffs or not, unofficially eliminating the Caps will be hugely satisfying. That, plus the Capitals propensity for choking when it counts most makes this an easy choice.
Pass NBA
Chase Diamond
Washington Wizards vs. New York Knicks
Play: New York Knicks -4.5
This game has the 39-36 Wizards at the 33-43 Knicks. The Knicks must win this game tonight and the Wizards are safely in the Playoffs. This number will continue to go up as the day goes on as the public will pound this. The Knicks have played alot better winning 3 in a row since Phil Jackson joined the team.
Paul Bovi
76ers at Celtics
Pick: Over
Neither team plays much defense and at 208.5, even 1.5 above the opener, this one is 3 points below fair value, IMO. Couple the no defense with the notion that these 2 are just playing out the string and you have the makings for 220.Celts last 4 games have been vs Toronto and Chicago so they will relish the thought of playing a team that plays little in the way of D. Unleash the fury. Over
Bruce Marshall
Montreal at Ottawa
Pick: Over
Goals have been plentiful in games between the Canadiens and Senators this season, with nine being scored in each game, both 5-4 overtime wins for Montreal. Mindful that number one keeper Carey price has had his struggles vs. the Senators, the Canadiens are likely to go with backup goalie Peter Budaj, whose past marks vs. the Senators aren't too good, either (try 0-3-0 with a 5.88 GAA). On the other hand, Les Habitants have peppered Ottawa keeper Craig Anderson,was charged with all five goals against Montreal on Jan. 16.
Tom Stryker
Orlando Magic vs. Charlotte Bobcats
Play: Charlotte Bobcats -10
Back on March 28th, Charlotte (-4') visited Orlando and left the Disney area with a surprising 110-105 loss in its pocket. With an outside chance at the No. 6 spot in the Eastern Conference, the Bobcats need to pick up wins against bottom-feeders like the Magic in order to make that goal a reality.
The fact that this game is being played inside Time Warner Cable Arena helps Charlotte immensely. According to my database, the Bobcats own an impressive 30-18 SU and 30-16-2 ATS record in their last 48 games at home including a sound 26-12 SU and 26-11-1 ATS in this set provided Charlotte is rested. Because the Bobcats are only 2-11 SU and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 in their own backyard in this series only ensures that Al Jefferson and company will remain focused for this game.
Going against Orlando in this spot won't be a problem. On foreign courts, the Magic have lost their touch posting a shocking 1-23 SU and 3-19-2 ATS mark in their last 24 as a guest. In this role priced as an underdog between +5 and +15, Orlando crashes to a nasty 0-17 SU and 0-15-2 ATS. Also, when going into same season revenge, the Magic have really struggled notching a stiff 4-19 SU and 7-15-1 ATS record including 0-12 SU and 2-10 ATS in this set on the road.
As you can see, the home versus road dichotomy in this contest flat out works. With the Bobcats only a game below the .500 mark and the possibility of a second playoff appearance inching closer, AJ and the boys will get it done. Take Charlotte.
Alex Smart
San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Miami Marlins +102
Miami looked great in their opening series against Colorado winning 3 of 4 tilts. Meanwhile their visiting opponents the SD Padres are still finding it hard to score runs, get 6 in total, and losing 2 of the 3 to the Dodgers in their first series of the season!
Koehler looked very good in spring training recording a stingy 1.50 ERA in 18 plus innings of work. He finished last year, with a 3.14 ERA in 5 September starts, so he is trending upward, and deserves some action in this spot, vs a light hitting San Diego team , that is just 10-21 L/31 on the road vs a right handed starter. It must also be noted Stults the Padres starting hurler, did not fair well in his starts against Miami in 2013, walking four in 10 just innings of sub par work while allowing seven runs (six earned ) on 14 hits. (Padres are 1-5 in his L/6 road starts vs an above .500 side)
Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
Tom Grassi
Detroit vs. Brooklyn
Play: Over 206
Tom easily cashed his Free Play on the Dallas Mavericks last night as they beat the Clippers outright (113-107 as 4pt road dogs)!
The Pistons play the second game of a short 2-game road trip tonight in Brooklyn. On Wednesday they lost to Indiana 101-94 going over the 191 point total. That was their third straight game going over the total.
The Nets clinched a playoff spot last Tuesday night and must have been out celebrating all night. They came back on Wednesday and were drilled by the Knicks in New York 110-81. That 81 point scoring output was the first time in their last 10 games they failed to score 100 or more points.
The Nets are back at home tonight, with rest, and we expect them to score plenty of points tonight against a Detroit team that allows 105 points per game on the road. The last five games between these two teams have gone over and we expect that to go to six straight tonight.
Marc Lyle
Calgary Flames vs. Florida Panthers
Play: Calgary Flames +101
The Calgary Flames have been playing some great Hockey as of late. The Flames are one of the youngest and fastest teams in the league right now and they will absolutely take it to this Florida team.
The Panthers are 2-8 in their last 10 and have lost 8 out of 9 against the Pacific Conference. Luongo suffered a concussion and has missed the last 3 games as well.