Jack Jones
Philadelphia 76ers +9½
Both the Philadelphia 76ers (16-59) and Boston Celtics (23-52) have nothing to play for right now outside of pride. As a result, asking the Celtics to win by double-digits to beat us by taking the 76ers is simply asking too much. We'll take the points every time here.
If anything, it's Boston that has quit. The Celtics have lost 11 of their last 12 games overall, also going 1-5 ATS in their last six games. Their last two contests have resulted in blowout losses at Chicago (80-94) and at Washington (92-118). Danny Ainge has made it no secret that he is rebuilding for the future.
Philadelphia is doing the same, but I've seen enough from this team of late to know that it has not quit. Indeed, the 76ers are a very profitable 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall, raking in solid profits for guys like myself who can stomach betting them. They have stayed within 10 points of Indiana (twice), Chicago (twice) and New York over the past three weeks.
Plays on road teams (PHILADELPHIA) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games are 89-33 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Philadelphia is 54-29 ATS in its last 83 games as a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points. The road team has won each of the last three meetings in this series. Boston is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games following a blowout loss by 15 points or more. Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Bet the 76ers Friday.
Steve Janus
Boston Celtics -9½
9.5-points may seem like a lot to lay on the Celtics, given they have lost 6 straight and 11 of their last 12 overall, but I like this spot for Boston. The Celtics are coming off a season-worst 26-point loss at Washington on Wednesday, which should serve as a big motivator tonight. Boston will also be playing with some revenge on their mind. While they beat the 76ers 114-108 in Philadelphia in the most recent meeting, they lost 94-95 at home to the 76ers earlier this season. A game in which they led by 9-points with 8 minutes to play in regulation.
While there's plenty of reason for Boston to show up tonight, the 76ers threw in the towel on this season a long time ago. Since that win in Boston, Philadelphia has gone a miserable 1-28 over their last 29 games and a good chunk of those were decided by double-digits.
The 76ers are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games against a team that has won fewer than 40% of their games and just 17-31 ATS this year vs teams who allow 99+ points/game. Boston on the other hand is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs a team that has won fewer than 40% of their road games.
Dave Price
Tampa Bay Rays -142
This is a play against Texas starter Joe Saunders, who had a 5.26 ERA for Seattle last season. Saunders went 0-2 with an 11.37 ERA in spring training and is 0-3 with an 8.40 ERA lifetime against the Rays. Tampa Bay starter Jake Odorizzi is far from proven, but he was considerably better than Saunder in the spring (4.24 ERA) and should benefit from Texas' lack of familiarity with him. The Rays are 11-4 in their last 15 games as a favorite and 7-1 in their last 8 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Rangers are 1-5 in their last 6 games as an underdog. They are also 2-9 in their last 11 series openers while the Rays are 7-1 in their last 8 series openers.
Freddy Wills
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks +125
The Rockies had the 28th ranked bullpen a year ago and they are off to a similar start with an ERA over 8 despite some of the additions. They'll start Juan Nicasio tonight, but don't expect him to go deep into the game. Nicasio has easily averaged over 3BB/9 the last two seasons and he's got an ERA at 5.02 at home over the last 3 years combined. Against the Diamondbacks he posts an 8.05 ERA over 5 starts. Randall Delgado is not great, but his name gives us value here and Colorado has just 37 AB against with a .216 average and a .608 OPS. I will take the value with the Dbacks on Friday night who have beaten the Rockies 4 out of the last 5 times.
Hollywood Sports
Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets
Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder (55-19) continued their dominance over San Antonio last night with their 106-94 victory. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games played without a day of rest. Additionally, while the Rockets are 29-8 on their home court, Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court.
Houston (49-25) has lost three straight games after their 107-103 loss at Toronto as a 1.5-point underdog. The Rockets have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss as well as having failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. Furthermore, Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Take the points with Oklahoma City in this one.
Sam Martin
St Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates
Solid value backing the Pirates tonight who will be looking to get their revenge on a St. Louis team that knocked them out of the postseason last year. Expectations are high in Pittsburgh after that postseason run a year ago, and tonight's start Cole is a big reason as the rookie pitched very well last year - including two quality outings against these Cardinals in the postseason.
Cardinals starter Shelby Miller also pitched well last season, however not against these Pirates as he went 0-4 in four starts with a high 5.37 ERA. Admittedly, Miller didn't receive hardly any run support (St. Louis scored just one run combined in those four losses), but it didn't matter as Pittsburgh scored at least five runs in all four of those wins. That's the type of stat that builds confidence for Pittsburgh, and we'll back them to beat the Cards tonight!
Harry Bondi
WASHINGTON (+4) over NY Knicks
Let's go for a third straight FREE WINNER with a Washington Wizards team that still has a lot of work to do to get where they want to be for the upcoming playoffs. The Wizards beat the Boston Celtics on Wednesday night to clinch their first postseason berth since 2008, but rather than celebrating we expect Washington to catch the fifth-seeded Nets and open the playoffs against a Chicago Bulls club they’ve defeated twice this season rather than the Heat or Pacers, both of whom have spanked the Wizards regularly this year. Washington won and covered both games with New York this season and do it a third time tonight!
Bob Balfe
Tampa Bay Rays -145
Texas needed some late heroics and equal meltdown by the lowly Phillies to win that last series against them. Philadelphia was on top for about 95 percent of the series and two collapses gave Texas the series. You can tell how rattled the Rangers are without key pitchers in their rotation due to injury. Texas is going to a face a legit ball club on the road today and I believe we will see a healthier team at this point of the year win tonight. Take Tampa
Andrew Lange
Texas at Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa
Tampa's Jake Odorizzi has the chance to chance to be a nice under-the-radar pitcher this season. He's a young arm who last season was regarded as the Rays' No. 1 prospect – an impressive feat given the strong nature of this organization top to bottom. There is a trust factor with Tampa pitchers in that they are all well coached and well prepared and I expect this kid to hit the ground running. Meanwhile, Texas' Joe Saunders continues to find starting gigs but there are plenty of signs that indicate he's going to struggle this season. Better suited for a West Coast National League team, Saunders posted an alarming 5.26 ERA for Seattle last season. He not only remains in the AL but must pitch in Texas and for tonight against one of the better platoon squads in the league. During the spring Saunders was dreadful and rumblings of some early season "dead arm" have surfaced. Let's lay the moderate price and support the home favorite.
Kyle Hunter
Wizards at Knicks
Play: Knicks -3.5
The New York Knicks absolutely have to win this game. New York is in a position now where they can play their way into the playoffs, but this isn't a game they can afford to lose. The Knicks play a very difficult schedule the rest of the year, and they know that. This is one of the easier games left on their schedule. The Wizards are already in the playoffs, so this game means less to them. Motivation is everything in the NBA, especially this time of the year. The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 following an ATS win. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 following a SU win. They are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. A 19-1 angle.
Craig Davis
My free play winner for Friday is the Knicks as the home favorite over the Washington Wizards.
Lo and behold the Knicks are starting to play better and have worked themselves into the 8th spot in the Eastern Conference standings with just over a week to go in the season.
The Knicks have won and covered seven of the last 10 meetings with Washington, though the Wizards have won and covered the last two.
If you look closely at the records and overall standings, then you look at the spread for tonight's game, it has to make you scratch your head. Why are the Knicks five-point favorites when it appears the Wizards are clearly the better team?
Because Vegas knows the urgency and immediacy the Knicks have to win each and every game they have the rest of the way while Washington, though they clearly want to win, doesn't have near the pressure the Knicks do.
New York has won three straight and four of their last five because they've stepped up their defensive efforts. Two of those wins were quite impressive... a blowout win vs. Brooklyn in their last game and, before that, a five-point win in Golden State, holding the Warriors to just 84 points.
Take the Knicks to win by 9 as your free play of the day.
1♦ N.Y. KNICKS
Brad Wilton
With Milwaukee playing for extra ping pong balls in this summer's NBA lottery, will have little reservation in playing against them tonight when they visit the Bulls.
Milwaukee comes to the Windy City having lost 11 of their last 12 straight up, and they have been on the wrong side of the against the spread money in 2 of their last 3.
Chicago is making a late season push, winners of 3 straight and 5 of their last 6 overall, the Bulls are also on a 3-1-1 spread run their last 5 times on the court.
The Bulls have won the last pair of season series meetings, and they did cover the last time these teams met in January.
Double-digit win and cover for Chicago tonight at home.
3♦ CHICAGO
Jeff Alexander
Memphis Grizzlies -9
Memphis won 94-92 in Denver Monday, and I don't see the Nuggets getting revenge. Playing against road dogs that are out for revenge for a home loss has resulted in a 172-114 ATS record the last 5 seasons when they are matched up with an opponent that's off a road loss. Memphis won its previous home meeting with Denver by 21, and it is 10-0 in its last 10 home games with an average winning margin of 10.3 points in these contests. Additionally, Denver is a dismal 2-15 ATS on Friday nights this season, losing these games by 9.6 points on average.
Nelly
New York Knicks - over Washington Wizards
Washington clinched a playoff spot on Wednesday with a win over the Celtics and a letdown could be in order facing a Knicks team that has climbed into the field, currently sitting just ahead of Atlanta for the final spot in the Eastern Conference. New York is 12-3 in the last 15 games with only one home loss, winning by an average of 19 points per game in the home wins. Washington has lost five of the last nine games as the Wizards may be backing into the playoffs. Washington has won both meetings between these teams but they have not met in over three months. New York is actually 18-9 ATS this season when favored by less than seven points and while Washington has been a solid ATS performer on the road this could be a tricky situation given the contrasting motivations for these squads. New York has really stepped on defense in recent weeks, allowing just 91 points per game over the last five games while holding foes below 42 percent shooting. Washington is just 4-11 ATS in the last 15 meetings between these teams while going only 3-14 ATS the last 17 meetings at Madison Square Garden.
Cajun Sports
Dallas Mavericks -8
The Mavericks are in the City of Angels for a Friday night clash against the hometown Lakers. We want to Play AGAINST NBA home underdogs of four to nine points coming off a straight up loss as an underdog a game in which they covered the spread. These NBA home underdogs are 51-92-3 ATS including 17-39 ATS and 5-10 ATS the last fifteen in this situation.