Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, April 5

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

St. Louis at San Francisco
The Cardinals look to build on their 4-1 record in their last 5 road games versus a left-handed starter. St. Louis is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+100)

Game 901-902: San Diego at Colorado (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Marquis) 14.373; Colorado (Francis) 16.134
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-150); 11
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-150); Under

Game 903-904: St. Louis at San Francisco (4:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Westbrook) 15.776; San Francisco (Zito) 15.270
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+100); Over

Game 905-906: Miami at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Sanabia) 13.573; NY Mets (Hefner) 15.768
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-170); Over

Game 907-908: Washington at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Haren) 15.356; Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.518
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-115); Under

Game 909-910: Chicago Cubs at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Feldman) 14.640; Atlanta (Minor) 14.316
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+160); Over

Game 911-912: Arizona at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 14.790; Milwaukee (Lohse) 14.325
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+105); Under

Game 913-914: Pittsburgh at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Sanchez) 14.289; LA Dodgers (Greinke) 17.502
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 3; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-210); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-210); Under

Game 915-916: NY Yankees at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Nova) 16.007; Detroit (Fister) 15.650
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-190); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+165); Over

Game 917-918: LA Angels at Texas (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Vargas) 15.361; Texas (Holland) 14.514
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+100); Over

Game 919-920: Minnesota at Baltimore (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Hendriks) 15.530; Baltimore (Arrieta) 17.139
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-155); Under

Game 921-922: Boston at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Doubront) 14.940; Toronto (Johnson) 14.329
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+150); Over

Game 923-924: Cleveland at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (McAllister) 14.649; Tampa Bay (Moore) 16.336
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-170); Under

Game 925-926: Oakland at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Straily) 14.996; Houston (Peacock) 15.824
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+130); Over

Game 927-928: Seattle at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Beavan) 15.380; White Sox (Quintana) 15.639
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-145); Under

Game 929-930: Kansas City at Philadelphia (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Davis) 14.863; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.421
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-120); Under

Sam MartinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Santa Clara at George MasonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Game One of this Championship Series flew over the total by four points. Game Two play at George Mason fell under the total by 11 points. Tonight's Game Three stays on the Patriots home floor, however we look for both offenses to put forth a better shooting effort tonight and we look for this one to finish over the total. Santa Clara has allowed 73 point in both of those two games, so it's their offense that has determined the winner of the over/under thus far in this series. The Broncos shot 44% at home while scoring 81 points, but just 37.5% in Game Two's loss, putting up just 66 points. That is well below the Broncos 74 ppg season average and 72 ppg they score away from home on the season. And while this is a Championship Game setting, we look for both teams to try to extend the game as long as possible towards the end (if losing), with a number of potential points to be scored in the closing minutes. After the low-scoring Game Two, these offense rebound for a high-scoring series finale!

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Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston CelticsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Cleveland CavaliersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cavs meet the Celtics in Beantown Friday evening with all-star guard Kyrie Irving back in the lineup sooner than expected for Cleveland. That's good news here as the Cavs have made all their money on the road this season, going 15-6 ATS away against foes off a win. With Boston in off a quadruple revenge win over Detroit and 0-4 SUATS in game after playing the Pistons, look for the Cavaliers to improve to 7-1-1 ATS in this series here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

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Los Angeles Dodgers -1½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I'll back the Los Angeles Dodgers on the Run Line Friday considering the huge advantage they have on the mound and at the plate in this one. I look for them to win by two-plus runs over the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight.
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Los Angeles made a huge splash this offseason in signing Zach Greinke to give it arguably the best 1-2 punch in baseball alongside Clayton Kershaw. I look for this move to pay huge dividends for the Dodgers, starting Friday.
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Greinke has been absolutely dominant at home over the past few seasons. He went 11-0 with a 3.13 ERA at home in 2011 with the Brewers, and 8-2 with a 2.98 ERA at home in 2012 in his time between the Brewers and Angels.
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Jonathan Sanchez has been a huge disappointment over the past few years as his career has taken a turn for the worse due mostly to injury. The left-hander is 39-55 with a 4.58 ERA over his 7-year career. Sanchez went 1-9 with an 8.07 ERA over 15 starts between the Royals and Rockies in 2012.
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Greinke is a perfect 18-0 against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. His teams are winning by an average of 2.9 runs/game in this spot.
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Sanchez is 2-15 against the run line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. His teams are losing by an average of 2.1 runs/game in this situation. Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Friday.

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Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue JaysFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Boston Red SoxFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Josh Johnson is clearly one of the keys for the Blue Jays this season. If the vintage Johnson shows up, the Blue Jays will have a legit ace at the top of their rotation. If the 2012 Johnson is what they get, the results could be at least mildly disappointing. Johnson is good enough to win his share of games regardless, but he isn't going to dominate with the velocity and pitch selection that he displayed in 2012. Johnson was down a couple of ticks last season from where he'd previously resided, and he also threw fewer fastballs than in the past. Johnson only threw 55% heaters last season, a career low by a substantial margin. The breaking pitches saw a marked increase, so while he's no soft tosser, there's more finesse offering now than in the past. My pre-season projections actually rate Felix Doubront ahead of Johnson, so we're looking at a major value on the Boston lefty at this price, at least based on my numbers. It also looks as though the Red Sox might actually be slightly underrated out of the gate, which is clearly not the case for the Blue Jays. This looks close to tossup material to me, so grabbing the big plus sign with Boston is a decent underdog option.

Jim Feist

Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings
Pick: Sacramento Kings

Sacramento is rested, but aging Dallas is in the second of a back to back road spot, so it's not a good situational spot. They had to run up and down the court last night in the thin Denver mountain air and now fly to Sacramento. The young Kings are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss. And when these teams meet the home team is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Play the Kings.

MLB Predictions

Twins / Orioles Over 9.5

We will go with the OVER here between the Twins and Orioles in a Friday afternoon match up here in Opening Week. The Twins are 2-1 after taking their first series of the season at home vs the Tigers. The Twins scored 2, 3, and then broke out for 8 runs here on Thursday. The Orioles also opened 2-1 in their first series of the year, as they took 2 of 3 vs Tampa Bay. The Orioles scored 7, 7 and 6 runs in those games. The Twins send Liam Hendriks to the mound who was 1-8 last season with a 5.59 ERA, .305 OBA, and 1.55 WHIP. On the road Hendriks had a 1-3 record over 7 starts with a high 7.39 ERA. Jake Arrieta will be on the mound for Baltimore, and he too had a rough year last year. Over 18 starts and 24 appearances he was 3-9 with a 6.20 ERA, .272 OBA, and 1.37 WHIP. At home he was 2-5 with a high 7.12 ERA in 2012. Note that the OVER is 8-1 in Hendrik's last 9 road starts, and the OVER is 5-2 in Arrieta's last 7 home starts. Both teams had their bats going Thursday afternoon and with the two pitchers each will be sending to the mound for Friday's game I like the OVER.

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Washington at CincinnatiFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: CincinnatiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Bettors are already aware of Roy Halladay's rapid decline but not far behind him is Dan Haren. In 2009, Haren posted a 3.14 ERA with 223 strikeouts in 229 innings. And as recent as two years ago he was seen mowing down American League hitters to the tune of 192 Ks in 238.1 innings with a 3.17 ERA. But last year's decline (176.2 IP, 142 Ks, 4.33 ERA) was no fluke. Haren lost his velocity and fell in love with his cutter and the results weren't positive. Now in Washington, Haren has a chance to bounce back – and really is a good situation of having three stud pitchers ahead of him in the rotation and getting to toss in the National League. However, reports this spring weren't good. In one game he was 84-87 on the gun and topped out at 89. In his last spring start things were slightly better and one scout said he was "getting close" to regaining his form. I’m still leery and note that he’s had nine days off since that start which is not ideal for a pitcher that clearly needs to gain strength and confidence. For Cincinnati, Homer Bailey was rock solid in 2012 with a 3.68 ERA in 208 innings. He had a very strong home/road dichotomy (5.16 ERA at home, 2.32 ERA on the road) but I don't think it will be as pronounced this year. Washington just threw its three aces at home vs. the worst team in baseball. Things get a little tougher here tonight as we'll come in on the home side at the reasonable price.

Bryan LeonardFORFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New York -7½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bucks are struggling right now having dropped 9 of 13 games. The offense hasn't been clicking well and key cog Brandon Jennings has really fallen on hard offensive times. The Bucks haven't won a road game since March 10th in Sacramento as all of their limited success as of late has come at home.
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New York has beaten the Bucks each of the last four meetings including two double digit victories this season. While the Bucks are struggling the Knicks are surging winning 10 straight games, all by 5 points or more. The offense has been on fire with Anthony scoring 90 combined points the last two games. New York is playing with great confidence right now and this line looks to be low. New York is well prepared for Milwaukee after facing five playoff qualifying opponents in the last six games, so the opposition hasn't been weak during this streak.

Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington Nationals at Cincinnati RedsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Cincinnati RedsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Nationals are coming off a three-game sweep in their opening series as they outscored Miami 11-1. That was the Marlins though and now the opposition gets quite a bit tougher and on the road on top of it. Washington got extremely solid pitching in that first series from Steve Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman as well as the bullpen but tonight it could be crapshoot on what to expect. Dan Haren takes the hill today for Washington and he certainly has some tough acts to follow while his 6.39 spring ERA is a definite concern. The Reds took two of three against the Angels in their opening series thanks to some excellent pitching as well as they posted a 2.90 ERA in the three-game set. Homer Bailey gets the call today as he looks to continue his solid ending to the season from last year. He went 3-1 with a 1.85 ERA over his final seven starts during the regular season and then pitched a gem against the Gants in the NLDS despite a no-decision. Surprisingly he struggled at home last season but three of his last four starts were quality outings. He did not have the best spring either but did have 25 strikeouts and just five walks. He faced Washington once last year and tossed a quality game, allowing three runs in six inning but had to take the loss because of no run support.

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PHILADELPHIA -115 over Kansas CityFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Playing at hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field and losing two of three, the Royals managed just 17 hits and five runs. They also struck out 23 times while drawing just six walks and for the series, they batted .177. Not the best way to start the year, yet for some reason they are just a small pooch here with starter turned reliever turned starter Wade Davis going. Davis is coming off a solid spring that saw him post a 1.29 ERA over 14 frames. However, that was in four starts, meaning he averaged just 3½ innings per start. More notable is that he struck out just six batters and walked seven. Davis was a struggling starter with a declining strikeout rate and then he adds a couple of MPH to his fastball and slider out of the pen and voila! Short on starters, K.C. is now asking Davis to transition back to the rotation. Davis isn’t likely to see similar success in 2013, independent of his role. His ERA gain isn’t going to last; that was driven by a high strand percentage of 81%. Facing far fewer batters per outing clearly helped Davis but it’s unlikely he can maintain such a level in the rotation, as his dominance against lefties (.161BA, .464 OPS in 130 PAs) is out of whack with his history. At this park, against the Phillies, he could blow up right out of the gate.
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Can a chewing out by a manager turn a player around? After an August meeting, Kyle Kendrick was a new pitcher, with strikeout rate, command and ground-ball % at or near career highs. He even solved LHBs, an Achilles heel. Small sample and his history suggests caution but those 2H skills say "breakout”. Kendrick saw both his strikeouts and swinging strike rate surge in 2012 and he did so without significant control erosion. In addition, his skills surged in the 2H with a 50% GB rate, a 16% line-drive rate with fewer walks and more strikeouts. At age 28 and after enduring some growing pains, Kendrick has more upside than most realize and that includes the oddsmakers. Underlay.
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St. Louis/SAN FRANCISCO over 7½ +102FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Giants will open their season at home in front of a packed house at AT&T Park with two pitchers opposing one another that have very little chance of keeping the opposition off the scoreboard. Barry Zito posted a 3.03 ERA last year and followed it up with a strong post-season. Prior to that, it was four disaster starts in August and another year of lousy skills. While Zito’s story is great on one level—man with a ridiculous contract finally making good—it's also heavily laced with risk should you buy into this resurgence, because on a pure skills level, it's not a resurgence at all. Zito’s career best splits vs LH probably won't repeat, nor will the 15 wins. Last year was a complete fluke with hard hit balls being hit right at people. Zito’s year-to-year trend is awful with an xERA of almost 5.00, a third straight season of a declining strikeout and groundball rates and a line-drive rate constantly around 20%.There will be no more miracles in '13 for Zito.
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Jake Westbrook is 35 years old and has over 1600 lifetime innings in the majors. He also has a career BAA of .273 and a career ERA of 4.30. Westbrook’s groundball tilt remains consistent and his skills were strong as ever, although that’s not saying much, until late-season Sept oblique strain. Westbrook is a serviceable fourth or fifth starter that will eat innings but he’ll never be anything more. He's also long past the point of growth with best case scenario for him being another year with average numbers right across the board. This past spring, Westbrook put up more Westbrook-like numbers with 24 hits in 24 innings, 13 runs allowed, nine walks and 13 K’s. It’s also worth noting that AT&T Park is a pitcher’s park but in day games, it plays more of a hitter’s park, as the damp night air is not present. Expect both of these pitcher’s to pay the price.
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Boston +154 over TORONTOFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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As the Blue Jays found out in their season-opening series loss to the Indians, it’s quite a different role going from low expectations to high expectations. Despite winning yesterday and going off 10 runs, Toronto had to fight tooth and nail to hang on for the win. There is pressure on this loaded club to win a lot of games and they didn’t respond well in the opening series and we’ll look to take advantage of this inflated price here. Josh Johnson experienced a decline in his strikeout rate last year. A normalized hit % and strand % are all it took for Johnson to go from elite to mediocre, though lingering effects of a shoulder injury may explain lost velocity (down 2 mph from 2010). However, second half was actually worse than 1H so betting on a return to old form may require a leap of faith.
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The Red Sox took two of three from the Yanks in their series opener and they looked damn good in doing so. This guest has a new identity and attitude and right now they’re still grossly undervalued, as is today’s starter, Felix Doubront. Doubront quietly had an elite strikeout rate in 29 games started with Boston in 2012. Problem was, he struggled with his control but that may have been an issue of durability more than a lack of skill. Doubront's control in the first half wasn't bad and his overall skills were excellent. With a 9.5% swinging strike rate, 93 mph fastball, and good numbers against both LH and RH bats, Doubront may just be ready to take it up a notch or two. Doubront had 22 K’s in 18 innings this past spring while issuing just six walks. This good-looking lefty has a profile that will work and it looks even more appealing taking back 7½-5.
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Seattle/CHICAGO over 8½ -106FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When two garbage pitchers are going, you usually see a total in the 9½ range much like the Orioles/Twins game today. This total matches the Tigers/Yanks total (Fister/Nova) and that’s just out of whack. Blake Beavan went 11-11 with a 4.43 ERA in 152 IP for the Mariners last year and this isn’t Safeco. Beavan’s line-drive (23%) tendency and on base percentage cancel out his playable command. What's that? Oh, you don't want Derek Lowe? Neither do we. Beaven has great control but strikes out very few batters. Even in the minors, he struck out few. With so few Ks and BBs, a lot of balls are put in play, not a great thing for a pitcher who gives up a healthy number of line drives. He’s also at the mercy of hit % and strand % fluctuations. A plunging skill set shows that not only is there no growth, but that Beavan is actually regressing. This guy has about two months left in his major league career so take advantage now.
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Carlos Quintana isn’t much better. He went 6-6 with a 3.76 ERA in 136 IP for the South side a year ago but it was all smoke and mirrors. There was no single hallmark skill here but at least for 1H, Quintana wrung the most out of a series of just-above-tolerance skills. He slipped off that tight rope in second half though, posting a skills profile that we just can't endorse. Quintana's upside remains as a back of the rotation/middle relief type in the long run. We’re not asking much of Quintana here. We’re asking him to give up three or more runs and this one should sail over this low number because the South Side will get theirs.
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Arizona +121 over MILWAUKEEFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Brewers lost their season opening series to the Rockies while managing to score just 12 times in the three-game set against Colorado’s pedestrian pitching staff. Milwaukee’s staff allowed 19 runs in the three-game set with no starter lasting more than 5.1 frames. The Brewers come into this series with an already taxed bullpen and that can’t be a good thing. Kyle Lohse has had the luxury of pitching in St. Louis over the past five years but he won’t have that luxury this season. Lohse had a minor skills boost last year but he significantly outperformed his xERA again. His control is legit, but not THIS good and history says not to trust second half strikeout rate. Lohse’s sterling W-L record will not repeat and his strand percentage of 77% is likely to regress. Lohse is high on our fade list.
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Wade Miley paced the Diamondbacks starters in victories and ERA in 2012, easily out-pitching vets like Ian Kennedy and Trevor Cahill. Miley made significant gains in both his control and strikeout rates a year ago and everything he did as a rookie was impressive. Miley was especially tough on LH, who have just 1 HR against him in 183 career AB. While Miley’s 3.33 ERA overstated his improvement a bit, his 3.87 xERA in his first full season was impressive. Miley’s ground-ball ways, especially in the first half, added to his stability. The fact that he maintained his new level from the first half to the second half and didn’t benefit from hit%/strand% luck in either gives some evidence that his skills growth was for real. Though not overpowering and unlikely to be a front-of-the-rotation type in the long haul, Miley definitely showed that he belonged. There’s profit potential here.

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SAN JOSE -1½ +120 over CalgaryFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When the Flames lose, which is often these days, they really lose. Calgary has dropped six of its past eight games with all those losses being by two goals or more. Most of those were before they cleaned house and now these weak travelers will have to go back on the road where they have three wins in 16 games. Over their past two games and without the services of Jerome Iginla and Jay Bouwmeester, the Flames have been outscored 12-3. Then there’s Miikka Kiprusoff. Clearly, his head is not in this thing. Kiprusoff’s intentions are to retire after this season. He’s under contract and will play out the string but the season’s end cannot come quick enough for him. Kiprusoff is the confirmed starter for this one but will show up in body only. The Flames are a complete and utter mess right now, having to face the NHL’s hottest club.

San Jose has reeled off six in a row while outscoring the opposition over that span by a count of 21-7. The Sharkies are now in fifth place in the West just a point behind the fourth place Kings and that’s key, as fourth place will get home ice advantage in the playoffs in the first round. The Sharkies cannot afford to take their eyes off the task at hand here. They have a mentally and physically wounded guest coming in with Dallas and Columbus on deck. San Jose really has a chance to move up even more in the standings and it’s highly doubtful this guest will get in its way. The Flames are finished for the year. They’ve already quit while the Sharkies are just getting started.

Indian Cowboy

Grizzlies / Lakers Under

The Grizzlies and Lakers hook up on a Friday Night contest that will generate a lot of intrigue considering how close the playoff race is in the West. With the Lakers and Jazz fighting for the last playoff spot and Dallas hovering in the wings, the name of the game will be defense for the Lakers as they face the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies are ranked second in the league in defense while first in the league in rebounding combined with 26th in the league in offense. Compare that with the Lakers who are 16th in the league in field goal percentage allowed, and you have to take a look at this team with their star players back as it relates to their defense. With Pao, Dwight and company back, this team gave up 81 points to the Mavericks at home, and with every game essentially being a playoff game from here on out considering Utah has the tiebreaker on the Lakers this year, look for the Lakers to step up on defense as well as the Grizzlies to do what they do best on the defensive side of the ball. Plus, this is a good public fade on a Friday night as it relates to the under as well.

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Baltimore/ Minnesota Over 9.5: The Orioles have really come out swinging as they just put up 20 runs n a very tough Rays pitching staff and in a pitchers park no less. Now they bring this offense home to what was one of the better hitters parks in the league last year. Now let's ad one more factor to the mix. This very good offense at home in a hitters park will take on Liam Hendricks, who is 1-10 with a 5.71 ERA in 20 career starts. Clearly I expect the O's to put up a bunch of runs in this one. I also expect the Minnesota offense to have a good showing today vs starter Jake Arrieta. Granted that Jake has not allowed a run in each of his last 2 starts vs the Twins, but still last year he was the worst starter that the O's had before getting injured and he has a career ERA of 5.60 in this park, plus a 5.38 ERA in day starts over his career. Let's also note that he has a 4.74 ERA in the first month of the season, despite a 4-3 record, so the O's have had some early high scoring games with him on the mound. Minnesota's offense is healthy and they finally exploded for 8 runs vs Detroit yesterday and I expect them to have another good offensive showing in this one. I just don't see how this game is played in single digits. Two horrible pitchers on the mound, with very capable offenses in a hitters park. 12+runs here.