Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday April, 6

Marc Lawrence

Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers

When the Lakers host the Rockets at the Staples Center Friday evening Los Angeles will be looking to avenge a 107-104 loss they suffered on March 20 as 2.5-point chalk at Houston. Considering L.A.'s 15-3 ATS mark in this series in games in which the Rockets enter off a upset win in their previous game, including 9-0 ATS on this court, expect a Kobe steak-like effort from the boys from La La land here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Lakers.

Rob Vinciletti

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder -3

This is a bad time to face the Thunder as they come in off back to back losses for just the second time this season. They qualify in a nice system here that plays on road favorites of -4 or less with 1 day of rest and a total of 190 or more while scoring 90 r more in their last game, if the opponent shot 45% or higher on the road these teams have cashed 12 of 16 times. The Pacers are 3-6 vs teams who average 99 or more and OKC has covered 3 of 4 off back to back spread losses and 11 of 15 in non conference games. Look for Oklahoma City to get back on track here tonight.

Freddy Wills

St.Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: St.Louis Cardinals

Friday the rest of the league is in action and it made me think just how different betting on baseball is than other sports. You can easily find value on any given day and some days you have to pay the price on -175 or higher. We try not to get into all that action and like to keep our plays between +150 and -150 but occasionally we will go outside those numbers. Friday's hot starter is Jamie Garcia from the reigning World Series Champions who opened up Wednesday night.

Take Garcia & The Cardinals +115 (2* PLAY)
Despite Garcia's struggles on the road in his career we like the Cardinals here because of Garcia's consistency in April. Garcia had a 2.79 ERA in 5 starts this spring with a 1.09 WHIP and had a 2.08 ERA last April. Garcia over 9 GS in the last 3 years in April carries a 1.60 ERA. Talk about starting hot. He also has seriously good numbers vs. the Brewers who are now without their best hitter in Prince Fielder. Ryan Braun is just 5-22 vs. Garcia and Garcia has a 2.72 ERA in 7 starts over the last 3 years vs. the Brewers. Brewers were 12th in OPS vs. LHP with a .733, but the Cardinals were better vs. RHP .765 #1 in the National League. I like the Cardinals replacements for Pujols better than what the Brewers did.

Brewers added Aramis Ramirez, the Cardinals got Carlos Beltran and they bring back their NLCS and World Series MVP in David Freese to bat 5th. Yovani Gallardo is an excellent pitcher but the Cardinals already spoiled the Marlins opening day and I think they do it again here. Gallardo was not sharp in April last year posting a 6.23 ERA and he has struggled vs. the Cardinals. Cardinal hitters have a .803 OPS in 133 AB against Gallardo. In 9 starts over the last 3 years he has a 4.96 ERA vs. the Cardinals including his start last September when he gave up 8 ER at home. Gallardo carried a 1.52 WHIP this Spring and you can't get by facing the Cardinals allowing more than 1.5 runners to reach base per inning.

Notable Hot Starters:
C.C. Sabathia (6GS, 2.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP - April 2011)
Jamie Shields (6GS, 2.14 ERA, 0.95 WHIP - April 2011)
Jeremy Guthrie (5GS, 2.53 ERA, 1.09 WHIP - April 2011)
Jered Weaver (5GS, 1.14 ERA, 0.81 WHIP - April 2011)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
Yesterday's cold starter was also our play of the day with Kershaw and the Dodgers. Although Kershaw left the game early because of the flu. Tonight we give you Colby Lewis who had a 5.70 ERA last April. Despite the high ERA that is mainly due to the ballpark he plays in he carried a 1.36 WHIP which indicates that ERA should actually be a little lower. The good news is he faces John Danks and the White Sox. Lewis has dominated the Sox hitters who have 70 AB, .214 average and a .542 OPS against him.

Danks has struggled vs. Texas allowing a .788 OPS in 158 AB. Lewis playing at home where the Rangers just dominated a year ago hold a considerable advantage in this game and we may have a small bonus play on this tomorrow.

Notable Cold Starters:
Carl Pavano (5GS, 5.12 ERA, 1.20 WHIP - April 2011)
Yovani Gallardo (5GS, 6.23 ERA, 1.55 WHIP - April 2011)
Jason Vargas (6GS, 5.45 ERA, 1.40 WHIP - April 2011)
Chad Billingsley (5GS, 5.34 ERA, 1.37 WHIP - April 2011)

Jim Feist

Washington Wizards vs New Jersey Nets
Pick: New Jersey Nets

Washington is going nowhere except to the NBA draft lottery. The Wizards are 17-35 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a losing record and 6-16 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. They take on a New Jersey team that is playing well and has a shot at the No. 8 playoff slot, and playing like it on a 4-1 ATS run. New Jersey is happy to be home after a long road trip and will tear up the weak Washington defense. Play the Nets.

Dave Cokin

Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Minnesota Twins

Two teams off horrible 2011 campaigns, and the struggles are likely to continue for both this season. But I feel there's more room for improvement on the Twins and I give Carl Pavano a slight edge over Jake Arrieta in today's mound matchup. Add in the plus money on the road team, and the Twins become playable in this opener.

MLB Predictions

Los Angeles Angels -1.5

The Kansas City Royals will send Bruce Chen to the mound for his 1st opening day start in his 15 seasons in the MLB. Chen lead the Royals with 12 wins last season. He had a 12-8 record, 3.77 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Opponents were batting .258 against Chen. Bruce had a rough spring training with a 9.41 ERA over 22 innings of work. Although he had a good strikeout to walk ratio, opponents were batting .378 against Chen in the spring which included 6 homeruns. The Los Angeles Angels hand the ball to their ace Jered Weaver for their home opener. Weaver is coming off a year in which he finished 2nd in Cy Young voting. He was 18-8 with a 2.41 and 1.01 WHIP. Opponents were batting just .212 against Weaver. At home Weaver was a stellar 8-2 with a 1.84 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .208 opponents batting average. Weaver started 15 games at home allowing just 24 totals runs against and just 6 homeruns against. To add to an already solid lineup the Angels went out and landed the bigest free agent in Albert Pujols making them serious contenders this season. Pujols has looked great this spring batting .383 with a .437 on-base percentage through 60 at bats. These two teams met in Kansas City in their season openers last season with the Angels beating Kansas City 4-2 behind Weaver. There is a lot of hype and excitement behind this Los Angeles Angels team this spring and I think they get off to a great start in their home opener in a very favorable pitching match up. Take the Angels to win by 2+ on the run line.

SPORTS WAGERS

HOUSTON +116 over Colorado

Colorado has a strong offensive team but that’s not the problem. Jeremy Guthrie starts the opener followed by 49-year-old Jamie Moyer and that has to be considered one of the worst, if not the worst top two opening day starters in MLB history. Guthrie comes over from Baltimore where he proved again that he's durable, consistent but not awful, has little room for error and that he offers very little as the chalk. Guthrie’s strikeout rate is mediocre and his groundball % is barely adequate. Also troubling is the 110 jacks and .437 slugging % he’s allowed over the past four seasons. Even with support or a division change, at age 33, his most recent seasons are now benchmarks. Only the hardest of the hardcore fans will recognize more than a few of the names on Houston's every day lineup. That’s fine because a group of young, talented and enthusiastic kids, with no expectations or pressure could actually compete on most nights. Wandy Rodriguez gets the opening day start and he’s deserving of it. His prior reputation of inconsistency is a thing of past. Four years of xERAs in the 3.60-3.70 range and the ERA results to match confirm his reliability. Colorado might be playing a lot of catch-up this season and will be much more appealing taking back a tag than laying one. That applies here. Play: Houston +116 (Risking 2 units).

TAMPA BAY +118 over N.Y. Yankees

If this game were played at Yankee Stadium, the price would make sense but at the Trop, it’s incorrect. These two split 18 games right down the middle a year ago and both will likely battle all summer long for the AL East title. In the “not exactly shocking news” category, NYY manager Joe Girardi has declared CC Sabathia his Opening Day starter. In an effort to stay strong throughout the year, Sabathia came into camp with a bit less weight that he was carrying last season. Going into 2011, it looked like he might be declining slightly – lefties hit him harder than usual in 2010, and his command had dropped for three straight years. But he recovered his command and dominated LH hitters in his usual fashion. He was great last year and his value has never been higher. Sabathia has averaged 240 IP over the last five years and while his skills were once again elite last year, the mileage on his arm could catch up to him. However, this isn’t about wagering against Sabathia. This is about wagering on the Rays at home with James Shields on the hill, a combination that might not be a dog again all year. For Shields, it was almost a carbon copy, skills-wise of 2010 but with very different results. You can count on his skills, reliability says that. His opening day price suggests that the oddsmakers believe the public will they be looking at 2011 as lucky as with 2010 in the back of their minds? Don’t buy into 2010 numbers. Shields’ is for real with great control, a high strikeout rate and 16 games won that could have easily been 22. Definite overlay. Play: Tampa Bay +118 (Risking 2 units).

Matt Fargo

Golden State Warriors vs Utah Jazz
Pick: Utah Jazz

I have been pretty high on Golden St. this year as the Warriors have been covering machines, going 29-24 ATS which includes a strong 17-9 ATS record on the road. They have covered all three games on this current roadtrip including an outright win at Minnesota in their last game and that sets up a good go-against situation here. Golden St. has not fared well following a win as it is 8-12 following a victory and it has not won consecutive games since early March. Utah meanwhile is coming off a loss against Phoenix on Wednesday at home which was its second straight loss at EnergySolutions Arena, the first time this season it has lost consecutive games at home. The Jazz are still on the outside looking in at the playoffs as they trail Denver and Houston by a game and a half for seventh place so they will have to protect home court the rest of the season to give themselves a chance. Utah is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Utah has won 14 of 18 home games this season when favored and while this is a big number, the spot sets up well for a blowout. The Jazz are 38-21 ATS in their last 59 home games after a home game where both teams scored 100 or more points and it is that defense that needs to turn things around after a poor effort against the Suns. Golden St. meanwhile is 10-22 ATS after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two seasons.

JEFF BENTON

Your Friday freebie is the Memphis Grizzlies plus the points at Miami.

The Heat come into this home game off a huge Wednesday night showcase win over the best-in-the-west the Oklahoma City Thunder, and I think Miami is going to suffer a little bit of a letdown when they face Memphis tonight.

The Grizzlies are sitting in the # 5 spot in the West playoff standings, and they did just lose a big road game at Dallas on Wednesday night allowing the Mavericks to gain a full game on them in the standings. Memphis returns home tomorrow night for another game against the same Mavs they just lost to, so they can ill-afford to look ahead to Saturday night.

Memphis does own a 5-2 straight up mark their past seven games, while Miami is still below .500 at 7-10 their last seventeen when installed as the favorite, and for the season they are just 13-12 versus the line in their home games.

The Grizzlies have held their own against the Heat of late, winning five of the past eight series meetings straight up. Don't know if they can win straight up this time around, as Miami does own an impressive 23-2 straight up mark on their home floor, but I can see them keeping things close enough to snag the underdog cover.

Take Memphis plus the points.

2♦ MEMPHIS

MATT RIVERS

Friday night's free play comes in the NBA, as I take the underdog Warriors plus the points at Utah.

Golden State may not be playing postseason basketball come the end of the regular season, but the Warriors are certainly not throwing in the towel. Golden State enters play tonight with three straight covers, and covers in six of their last eight games overall.

The Warriors are also 17-9 against the spread on the road this season, and have covered their last pair of visits to Salt Lake City. In fact, Golden State is 5-2 with the points the last seven times they have played the Jazz.

Utah is on a 2-5 slide both straight up and against the spread their past seven games, and they have failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight against teams from the Pacific Division.

Utah may hold on for the outright, but I don't think they are going to hold on for the cover. Take the Warriors to up their road spread mark to 18-9 on the year.

4♦ GOLDEN STATE

As for your Friday afternoon free play winner, take the Under when the Yankees and the Rays open the 2012 season at Tropicana Field.

There have been ten games played to start the new season, and eight of the ten have held Under the posted total. Obviously, early on the trend is for the pitchers to dominate the hitters, and today CC Sabathia and James Shields are more than capable of holding the hitters at bay for the early portion of this A.L. East contest.

Both teams sport solid bullpens, so don't expect the bats to get cranking after the starters exit this one.

Nine of the last twelve series meetings between the teams have held Under the posted price, and the Under at the Trop has collected at a 69-29-6 tune the past season-plus.

Another low-scoring affair on the diamond today, as the Yankees and Rays combine for plenty of goose eggs.

2♦ UNDER

David Banks

Rockets / Lakers Over 194

The Los Angeles Lakers (35-20, 23-32 ATS) have been winning games on the court, as they lead the Pacific Division by 2 games over their co-inhabitants, the Los Angeles Clippers. However, they have been burning the money of their supporters at the betting windows at a rapid clip when cast in the role of favorites, which they will be when they host the Houston Rockets (29-25, 28-26 ATS) on Friday at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, CA at 10:30 ET in a game televised on NBA TV.

Besides being just 23-32 against the spread overall despite being 15 games over .500 straight up, the Lakers are now a horrible 1-15 ATS the last 16 times that they have been favored this season while going 10-6 straight up in those games. Furthermore, they would be 0-16 ATS in regulation time as their only cover as a favorite since March 1 came in overtime at New Orleans when they won 107-101 as four-point favorites. They are currently on an 0-10 ATS run as home favorites while going 7-3 in those contests with an average winning margin of only +1.9 points. The Lakers have always been one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA due to their enormous popularity, but they have taken things to a whole new level this season with so many non-covering victories. This team is not nearly as potent offensively under first-year Head Coach Mike Brown, as Los Angeles ranks just 17th in the NBA in scoring at 96.5 points per game despite Kobe Bryant averaging 28.1 points. That speaks volumes for how the rest of the team has underachieved, and the Lakers have a rather thin bench this year. Even the defense has fallen off a tad under Brown, ranking 11th in points against at 94.0 points after finishing in the top 10 in that department each of the last two years.

The Rockets are still fighting for their playoff lives, as they are tied with the Denver Nuggets for seventh place in the Western Conference and thus for the final two playoff spots, but those teams have just a one game lead over the ninth place Phoenix Suns and a 1 game lead over the 10th place Utah Jazz. Houston is coming off of a huge road win over the team with the best record in the NBA, the Chicago Bulls, 99-93 on Monday, but unfortunately performances like that on the road have been few and far between for the Rockets lately, as they are just 3-9 both straight up and ATS in their last 12 road contests. It should be noted that the Rockets' starting backcourt has been out for a while, as Kyle Lowry has been out since March 7th with a bacterial infection and Kevin Martin has been out since March 11th with a tear in his shoulder, although the duo of Goran Dragic and Courtney Lee have filled in admirably in their stead. The pair combined to score 34 points in the upset of the Bulls Monday.

The home teams have now gone 10-3 straight up and 9-4 ATS in the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these teams although the Lakers' recent failures as home favorites will put that home ATS mark to the test. The teams have split covering home wins in their two meetings this season, with the Lakers actually covering as 7-point favorites in a 108-99 win here in Staples back on January 3rd and the Rockets pulling off the 107-104 upset as three-point underdogs in Houston in the March 20th matchup.

Jack Jones

Milwaukee Bucks -13

The Milwaukee Bucks are simply rolling right now as they try and sneak their way into the playoffs. Currently the No. 9 seed in the East, the Bucks trail the New York Knicks by 1.5 games for the 8th and final spot. It's safe to say that this team won't be lacking any motivation tonight as they host the lowly Charlotte Bobcats.

Milwaukee is 11-4 SU & 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games overall. This has been a completely different team since trading for Monte Ellis. The Bucks have been scoring at will offensively, putting up 104-plus points in 13 of their last 16 games overall. They have held 10 of their last 14 opponents to less than 100 points.

Charlotte (7-45) is the worst team in the league, hands down. The Bobcats haven't even been competitive this season as they are losing by an average of 12.8 points/game overall, including 15.5 points/game on the road. Making matters worse for the Bobcats is the fact that they are likely to be without their two best players tonight. Corey Maggette (Achilles) and D.J. Augustin (knee) are both listed as doubtful.

Milwaukee just beat Charlotte 112-92 on the road in their most recent meeting on March 23rd. Even with that 20-point blowout on the road, the home team is still 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Bucks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Charlotte is 0-7 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. Bet Milwaukee Friday.

Dave Price

Houston Rockets +6

The Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games, 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Fighting to remain in playoff position, and with 3 days of rest on their side, expect the Rockets to take LA down to the wire tonight.

Steve Janus

San Francisco Giants +100

San Francisco is showing some incredible value tonight. Anytime you can get Tim Lincecum at +100 on the money line, it's worth every penny. Not to take anything away from Diamondbacks starter Ian Kennedy, but Lincecum is simply not getting the respect he deserves this early in the season.

Another big reason why I like the Giants to win this game, is the fact that Arizona dethrone San Francisco last year in the NL West. A lot of people seem to be overlooking the 2010 World Series Champion Giants and jumping on the Arizona bandwagon. I guarantee you that hasn't sat well with the Giants players, and I look for them to come out an make a statement behind their ace tonight.