Jimmy Boyd
Golden State Warriors +8
The Warriors have lost 6 of their last 7 but continue to play hard. Just 1 of those 6 defeats has come by more than 8 points. The Jazz are struggling with 4 losses in their last 5 games, 2 of those defeats coming at home.
Golden State has won 3 of the last 5 in this series with the 2 losses coming by 1 and 7 points. Keep in mind that the 7-point loss came in overtime last month.
The Warriors have been a terrific investment in this spread range at 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog period and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Jazz, meanwhile, are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cleveland +8 over TORONTO
The Raptors have won four of their past five games including a 21-point drubbing of the 76ers in Philly in their last game. The Cavaliers have dropped nine in a row with seven of those defeats being by 12 points or more. As a result of these recent results, we have another case of sell high and buy low and we don’t hesitate to step in. The Cavaliers showed a little life in their last game in Milwaukee in which they trailed by 14 at the half and ended up losing by nine. They’re 0-3 against the Raps this season and no doubt will come out seeking some redemption and restoring some pride. To give you an idea of how inflated this number is, Toronto was a nine-point choice over the 7-45 Bobcats at home this past Tuesday and won by just five. Toronto has been favored in this range just once this year and that was in the aforementioned game against Charlotte. The Raps are definitely an improving and confident team but they are still not worthy of being in this price range. Play: Cleveland +8 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
Detroit +8½/+380 over ATLANTA
There are perhaps one or two teams in the league that you could feel comfortable spotting nine points to with the Hawks and the Pistons are not one of them. In terms of imposter, Atlanta could top the list. The Hawks have won six of their past nine games to improve to 32-23 on the year. Those six wins have come against Cleveland on a buzzer beater, New Jersey, Washington, Utah in four OT periods, the Knicks in New York’s worst statistical performance of the year and finally Charlotte. They’re 2-1 against the Pistons this season and failed to win by the allotted points here in any of them. The Pistons are coming on with five wins in their past six games. None of them with perhaps the exception of Orlando were noteworthy but they’re not the club spotting 8½ big points. Detroit is healthy, they’re playing with a swagger and they’re notably undervalued here against a team they can beat outright. The points are far too appealing to pass up on and just in case the Pistons peel back another layer off the phoney Hawks, we’ll put a little on them to win as well. Play Detroit +8½ (Risking 1.56 units to win 1.5) Play Detroit +380 (Risking 0.5 units to win 1.9).
Pass NHL
WUNDERDOG
Minnesota at Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore -120
The Baltimore Orioles have not had a winning season since 1997, and likely won't this season, but they are becoming more competitive. The Twins are coming off a season where they lost 99 games, and there simply isn't anything added to this team to expect anything different. They added Josh Willingham, but lost Michael Cuddyer to free agency, and that move is a wash in my opinion, losing contact and average for a bit more pop. The O's closed last year winning four straight series openers, and behind Arrieta they have been 8-3 in series lid-lifters. The Twins closed last season at 14-42 as an underdog, so play on Baltimore.
Dr Bob
Opinions
TORONTO (-7½) over Cleveland
Cleveland is a horrible team right now and Toronto has already beaten the Cavaliers 3 times this season while covering the spread in all 3 wins (they won by 8, 15 and 8 points). Toronto hasn’t been as good after a win, but my ratings favor the Raptors by 10 ½ points in this game with Cleveland’s current healthy personnel.
DALLAS (-6) over Portland
Portland is the league’s most inconsistent team and the Blazers are coming off a win against New Jersey, which probably will result in a down game tonight. The Blazers are just 1-18 straight up (0-15 more recently) and 4-15 ATS following their last 19 victories and they’re 20-9 straight up and 18-11 ATS this season after a loss. My ratings favor Dallas by 7 points based on current personnel for each team (Dallas has actually been the same with and without Jason Kidd this season) and I’ll lean with Dallas tonight based on Portland’s habit of playing worse after a victory.
Houston (+5½) over L.A. Lakers
The Lakers broke a 7 game spread losing streak with a 113-108 upset win over the Clippers on Wednesday but that win sets them up in a negative 32-66-1 ATS situation. The Rockets are better as long as Kevin Martin is out (they’re -15 in scoring margin this season when he’s on the floor and +52 when he’s sitting on the bench) and my ratings only favor the Lakers by 4 points in this game, so the Lakers continue to be overrated (they’re 0-9 ATS in their last 9 home games). What’s keeping me off this game is the fact that the Lakers should be better with Ramon Sessions (they’re +11.3 points per 48 minutes when he’s on the floor), but for some reason they’re average game rating in 12 games with Sessions on the team is lower than their season rating. That has to change at some point and I expect the Lakers to be better than they’ve been lately. That’s enough to get me to pass on this game as a Best Bet but the situation certainly favors Houston and the line is at least fair even if the Lakers are a couple points better than they’ve shown lately. I’ll lean with Houston plus the points.
Larry Ness
Dallas Mavericks - 6
The Blazers are 6-6 since interim coach Kaleb Canales took over for the fired Nate McMillan and have alternated wins and losses over the last nine games. Portland trails Houston and Denver by 3 1/2 games for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference and head to Dallas tonight to take on the Mavs. Dallas is sixth in the West and holds a 1 1/2-game lead over the Rockets and Nuggets with 11 games remaining. Dirk Nowitzki (21.2-6.6) has led Dallas to 11 consecutive postseason appearances and is again leading the way for the Mavs. Kidd is sidelined with a groin injury, so Carter (9.6) and West (8.5-3.4 APG) start in the backcourt. Marion (11.0-7.0) joins Dirk up front alongside of center Haywood (5.6-6.6). The Dallas depth remains strong with Terry (15.0) leading all bench scorers. Beaubois (8.9) also adds some scoring 'punch' in the backcourt while Odom (6.9-4.3) and Mahinmi (6.2-4.9) provide frontcourt support. The "new look" Blazers start Matthews (13.0) and Felton (10.8-6.4 APG) in the backcourt with Aldridge (21.6-8.1) and Batum (14.2-4.5) at forwards. Przybilla is now starting at center but he's questionable with an ankle injury. Crawford (13.2) has been the first man off the bench for most of the season but JJ Hickson has made quite an impact in his eight games, averaging 14.6 PPG and 6.4 RPG. The problem for the Blazers is, they play poorly on the road (7-19 SU and 10-16 ATS) and have NEVER had much success here in Dallas (have lost 23 of 27 all-time at American Airlines Center). Nowitzki, the reigning NBA Finals MVP, has averaged 26.3 PPG over his last 19 games, seemingly peaking just in time for the postseason. However, let me add that the Dallas bench averages 40.4 PPG, the league's second-highest mark. I'm taking the home team.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Minnesota/ Baltimore Under 9: Gotta look to the weather in this one. Early reports are that the wind will be blowing in from center at 15+ mph and that can make this great hitting park into an average hitting park. The Pitchers on the mound will not instill fear in the hitters, but then again both of these offenses are below average at best. The Twins last year hit just .247 and scored 3.8 rpg and they did little in the offseason to upgrade the offense. The O's did hit better (.257) scored more runs (4.4 rp) than the Twins, but still not a great offense and outside of Reynolds, Hardy and Jones they just don't have a whole lot of power. Let's also not that the UNDER is 15-5-2 in the last 22 meetings, while 7 of the 8 games last year put 9 or less runs on the board, with the Twins scoring 1 or less runs in 6 of those games. with the wind blowing in like that we may not get a HR and it's hard to reach 9 runs with out the long ball. I see about 6 runs in this one.
Milwaukee/ St Louis Under 7.5: (Added) Gallardo really struggled with the Cards last year as he posted an 8.61 ERA in his last 3 starts vs them, but all 3 of those starts were from August 11th on and he may have been tiring a bit then, plus the card were in the midst of a good run at the time. Gallardo did face the Cards in May of 2011, when he was much fresher and he allowed 0 ER and 1 hit in 8 innings of work.Last year isn't the only example of this. In his career Yovanni has a 3.10 ERA from March to June, but a 4.21 ERA from July on. Big difference there and i believe a fresher Gallardo will be able to hole the Cards bats in check here. Jaime Garcia is another strong starter as he owns a 2.35 ERA from March thru June, including a skinny 1.60 ERA in March/ April, plus he has a 2.73 ERA in 8 regular season starts vs the Cards. St Louis does have a strong offense, but it will still takes some time for them to get going, while the Brewers are gonna struggled out the gate till they get used to playing with out Fielder. This game should hit no more than 6 runs.
San Diego/ LA Dodgers Over 6: (Added) Ok all 8 of Chad's last 8 starts vs the Padres have gone under the total, but let's look at that a bit closer for a moment. The Dodgers scored just 5 TOTAL runs in the 8 games and were shut out in 4 of those games. Well that won't happen here. I feel this offense is better than recent years and they are healthy right now. They did hit just .212 last night, but still got 5 runs thanks to 3 errors by the Padres and that will be their downfall this year as they are not a good defensive team. LA also had good success vs Cory last year as he had a 5.40 ERA in two starts vs them, and that's another reason I don't see the Dodgers being held in check here. The Padres offense will struggle all year long but Billingsley is a pitcher they have had some success vs as he owns a 4.30 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them, including a 5.23 ERA in his last 2 trips to Petco. Very Low OU lineand I feel that once again both teams are capable of putting up 3 runs each in this one.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Texas -1.5 (+110) Over Chicago (AL): This had to be a tough offseason for the Rangers as they were one out away from winning it all last year and then their top hitter Josh Hamilton had some problems with alcohol during the winter as well. If there was ever a team that wants to get back on the field and get off to a good start this year, it is the Rangers. Today they will be facing a Chicago team that has little pop, especially after losing Quentin to the Padres. The Sox still have Dunn and Rios, but both have really seen their numbers go down recently and im not expecting much of an increase this year. The Rangers will once again field a very impressive offense and Lewis is the better starter in this one over Danks. The Rangers at home will look to start the year with a big win so they can erase some of the bad taste the winter has left in their mouths. Texas by at least 4 runs in this one.
LA ANGELS -1.5 (-105) over Kansas City: (Added) Yes I will be high on this Royals team this year, but this is the first game and I feel they are in a bad spot here vs an LA Team that wants to show off their new toy (Pujols) in a big way. Bruce Chen had a decent year last year, but tonight he will be facing a very improved and strong LA offense that could flirt with averaging 5 rpg this year, compared to the 4.1 rpg they put up last year. Chen is 1-1, but with a 4.24 ERA in 4 starts vs the Halos. Jered Weaver is the Ace of this staff and he is off a fine year (18-8, 2.41 ERA), plus last year at home he was 8-2 with a 1.84 ERA in 15 starts. Weaver has also done well vs the Royals of late, going 3-0 with an 0.63 ERA in his last 4 starts vs them. This is a statement game for the Halos and they will win easily behind their new toy and the pitching of Weaver.
1 UNIT PLAY
Ny Yanks/ Tampa Bay Under 7: I know all about the offense that is on the field for these two teams, but I feel the offenses are a bit slower to get going in the early season than the Pitching and we have two good starters on the mound in this one. CC Sabathia has struggled in the Preseason, with an over 5.00 ERA, but he has always struggled in the preseason (5.27 Career ERA in spring) and he has gone on to fine years. CC has a 3.10 ERA vs Tampa All-time and a 3.64 ERA at the Trop, plus in 112 career day starts he has a 3.12 ERA. Shield's had a nice spring, with a 2.08 ERA, while he owns a 3.03 ERA in April/ March in his career and a 2.33 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Yanks. This game will be all about pitching as no more than 5 runs are scored.