SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA
Toronto (38-40, 36-42 ATS) at Atlanta (49-29, 45-33 ATS)
The Raptors will try to avoid a fourth straight loss and stay in the race for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference when they travel to Philips Arena for a matchup with the Hawks.
Two of Toronto’s three straight losses (0-3 ATS) have come at home, including Wednesday’s 115-104 setback to the Celtics, failing as a six-point underdog. The Raptors, who are tied with Chicago for the No. 8 and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs, are just 1-5 (2-4 ATS) in their last six north of the border.
Atlanta, tied with the Celtics in the third spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs pecking order, has dropped two straight games and three of its last four (SU and ATS). Most recently the Hawks fell in Detroit 90-88 as 5 ½-point favorites on Wednesday, just onenight after losing 109-100 in Charlotte as 4 ½-point underdogs. Atlanta is 32-7 at Philips Arena this season and has cashed in 24 of the 39 contests.
The Hawks have taken four of the last five meetings in this series (SU and ATS), including two of three this season (3-0 ATS). These two squared off in Toronto on March 17 with the Raptors edging the Hawks 106-105 but coming up short as a three-point favorite. Atlanta has cashed in seven of the last eight head-to-head meetings and the chalk has cashed in 10 of the last 13.
Toronto comes into this one having cashed in five of its last six roadies, but it is on ATS skids of 20-43 after a non-cover, 8-17 against Southeast Division teams and 19-40-1 on the road against teams with winning home records. They Hawks are just 1-5 ATS in their last six Friday games and 2-6 in their last eight games after a loss, however they have cashed in foru of five at home and 14 of 18 against Atlantic Division squads.
The Raptors are riding “over” streaks of 5-1 overall, 8-1 against Southeast Division teams, 24-9 against Eastern Conference squads and 37-15 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Atlanta has stayed below the posted number in four of five against Eastern Conference teams, but gone “over” the number in 16 of 21 against teams with losing records, nine of 12 after a non-cover and eight of 11 against Atlantic Division teams. In this series, the “over” has cashed in 22 of the last 30 meetings, including five of six in Atlanta.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Phoenix (51-27, 45-32-1 ATS) at Oklahoma City (48-30, 46-32 ATS)
Two teams headed for the Western Conference playoffs square off inside the Ford Center when the surging Suns visit the Thunder.
Phoenix has won 11 of its last 12 games (8-3-1 ATS), including Wednesday’s 112-101 home win over the Spurs, cashing as a six-point chalk. Amare Stoudemire poured in 29 points and grabbed eight boards as the Suns battle to get the No. 2 seed in the playoff race. The Suns have won six of seven road games (4-3 ATS), including four of five on a recent five-game Eastern Conference road swing.
Oklahoma City has lost two in a row, losing a thrilling 140-139 overtime game in Utah on Tuesday, cashing as a 6 ½-point underdog, and then falling 98-94 at home on Wednesday to the Nuggets as a 2 ½-opint favorite. After scoring 45 points in Utah, Kevin Durant followed it up with 33 points and 11 rebounds against Denver. The Thunder are in a three-way battle for the sixth spot in the Western Conference playoffs with the Spurs and Portland.
The Suns have won nine of their last 10 meetings (3-6-1 ATS) with the Thunder, but the two have split their two meetings this season with the road team winning both meetings. Phoenix went to Oklahoma City on Feb. 23 and took a 104-102 win as a 6 ½-point ‘dog, two months after the Thunder went to Arizona and scored a 117-113 win as 8 ½-point underdogs. In Oklahoma, the Thunder have cashed in five of seven against Phoenix as the underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes.
Phoenix is on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 22-8-1 overall, 11-4 on the road, 16-4-1 on Fridays, 18-7-1 after a day off, 11-5-1 against teams with winning records and 12-5-1 after a straight-up win. Oklahoma City is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a home favorite, but it is on ATS surges of 13-3 on Fridays, 40-16 after a non-cover, 45-20 after a straight-up loss and 4-1 after a day off.
The Suns have gone “over” the total in three of five overall and six of nine on the road, but they are on “under” streaks of 5-2-1 as ‘dogs, 4-1-1 after a spread-cover and 8-2 on Fridays. The Thunder are on “over” runs of 5-1 overall, 7-3-1 as a favorite and 3-0-1 after a non-cover. In this rivalry, the “under” has cashed in 13 of the last 18 in Oklahoma City, but the “over” has been the play in four of the last five overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX
Dallas (51-27, 33-44-1 ATS) at Portland (48-30, 42-34-2 ATS)
The Trail Blazers will try to make it four in a row over the Mavericks this season when the two square off inside the Rose Garden in Portland.
Dallas, fighting for the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference playoffs, has dropped two of three (SU and ATS), but most recently scored a 110-84 blowout win over Memphis on Wednesday, easily cashing as a 9½-point favorite. The win snapped a two-game home losing streak for the Mavericks, who got a combined 45 points and 15 rebounds from forwards Caron Butler and Dirk Nowitzki.
Portland has won two straight (1-1 ATS) and six of seven (SU and ATS) as it has pulled into a three-way tie for sixth in the Western Conference playoffs with the Thunder and Spurs. Wednesday, the Blazers notched a 93-85 road win against the Clippers, but came up short as a nine-point favorite, as LaMarcus Aldridge led the way with 27 points and 12 rebounds.
The Blazers are a perfect 3-0 (SU and ATS) against the Mavericks this season, including two wins in Texas. On March 25, Portland scored a 101-89 home win over Dallas, easily cashing as a 3 ½-point chalk. The underdog has been the play in this series eight of the last 11 meetings.
Dallas is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games and 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road ‘dog, but it is on negative ATS trends of 2-10 against Northwest Division teams, 5-16-1 after a spread-cover and 8-18-1 after a day off. Portland is just 1-4 ATS in its last five home games against teams with winning road records, but it is on ATS streaks of 5-2-1 overall, 6-0 against Southwest Division teams, 3-0-1 after a day off, 15-5 on Fridays and 21-6 as a chalk of up to 4 ½ points.
The Mavs have topped the total in seven of nine on Fridays and nine of 13 after a day off, but they are on “under” streaks of 6-2 overall, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 5-2 as ‘dogs. The Trail Blazers have gone “over” the number in eight of 11 on Fridays and seven of nine against Southwest Division teams, but they are on “under” runs of 10-3 at home, 6-2 as home favorites and 6-0 at home against teams with winning road records. In this series, the “under” has cashed in 15 of the last 21 meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (2-1) at Milwaukee (2-1)
Two N.L. Central rivals that took two out of three games in their season-opening series get together when the Cardinals send Kyle Lohse (6-10, 4.74 ERA in 2009) to the Miller Park hill against Brewers right-hander Dave Bush (5-9, 6.38).
St Louis won its first two games of the season at Cincinnati, racking up 17 total runs while allowing nine, but the Cards were shut down Thursday in a 2-1 loss, with the lone run coming on a Matt Holliday homer in the seventh inning. Despite the quick start, the Redbirds are on a 3-10 overall slide dating to last season. On the positive end of the spectrum, they’re also on surges of 23-6 in series openers and 12-5 in roadies against right-handers.
Milwaukee opened the season at home against Colorado, losing the first game Monday, then coming back with a pair of victories, including a 7-5 win Wednesday to wrap up the series and head into a day off. Dating to last season, the Brewers have won six of their last seven overall, four in a row in the N.L. Central and four in a row on Friday, but they are 3-10 in their last 13 games after a day off.
These division rivals split their 18 meetings in 2009, with Milwaukee earning a three-game road sweep to close the regular season. In fact, the road team has won the last seven clashes, and the Cards are on a 4-0 run at Miller Park.
Lohse posted just two wins in his last 15 outings last year, to go with seven losses, and he was a meager 1-6 with an inflated 6.10 ERA in 11 road outings (10 starts). St. Louis is 9-3 in its last dozen series openers with Lohse starting, but the trends are all downhill from there when the righty takes the ball, including 1-4 overall, 2-14 on the highway, 0-9 against winning teams and 2-7 in the division.
Lohse is 3-5 with a 5.17 ERA in 14 career appearances (12 starts) against Milwaukee, including 2-1 with a bloated 7.07 ERA in six appearances (five starts) at Miller Park. Last year, he was 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA in three outings (two starts) against the Brewers.
Bush limped to the finish line last season, going 2-9 with a beefy 8.31 ERA in his last 13 starts, and he was 1-5 with a 5.98 ERA in 11 total starts at Miller Park. The Brewers are 19-7 in his last 26 home starts against winning teams, but they are also on dives behind Bush of 2-6 overall, 0-5 at home, 1-4 in the N.L. Central and 1-5 against winning teams.
Bush is 2-6 with a 6.65 ERA in eight career starts against St. Louis, going 0-2 with a hefty 8.71 ERA in his two outings last year as he allowed 10 runs (all earned) on 18 hits in 10 1/3 innings.
St. Louis is on “over” streaks of 6-3-1 overall, 4-0 in series openers, 6-2-1 behind Lohse in division play and 8-3 with Lohse facing a winning team, though the under has hit in eight of its last 11 against winning teams and five of six with Lohse throwing a series opener. Milwaukee is on a bundle of “over” runs, including 15-4-3 overall, 6-0-1 at home, 7-1-1 after a day off, 3-0-1 with Bush starting, 20-7-3 behind Bush in division play and 19-7-2 with the righty starting at home.
Conversely, the total has stayed low in seven straight Miller Park meetings between these clubs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (2-1) at Tampa Bay (2-1)
Javier Vazquez (15-10, 2.87 ERA), who had a solid season for Atlanta last year, rejoins the Yankees for the first time since 2004 when he opposes Rays youngster David Price (10-7, 4.42) and the division rival Rays at Tropicana Field.
New York opened the season with a 9-7 loss to archrival Boston on Sunday, then bounced back with a pair of victories at Fenway, including Wednesday’s 3-1, 10-inning win, with newly acquired Curtis Granderson hitting a solo shot for the game-winning run. The defending world champions are on tears of 54-22 overall, 39-16 against lefty starters, 42-16 in the A.L. East and 40-16 against winning teams.
Tampa Bay took two out of three at home in its season-opening series against Baltimore, notching a pair of 4-3 victories in the first two games before falling 5-4 last night after allowing four runs in the sixth inning. The Rays remain on upswings of 8-3 overall, 11-3 in the division, 44-20 at home, 35-16 on Friday and 80-30 against righty starters.
New York went 11-7 against Tampa last year, including 5-4 on the road, ending the regular season with a 10-2 rout at Tropicana Field. The Yankees are 9-3 in the last dozen meetings overall.
Vazquez was 5-1 in his last seven starts of ’09, throwing a pair of complete games while posting a stifling 1.96 ERA. The righty was a superb 10-2 with a 2.80 ERA in 16 road starts. Vazquez is a more modest 5-4 with a 4.36 ERA in 12 career starts against Tampa Bay (3-2, 4.40 at Tropicana), and he did not face the Rays in 2009.
The Rays won in Price’s last four starts of ’09, including a 13-4 shellacking of the Yankees to open the final regular-season series of the year, with the southpaw yielding just one run on two hits and a walk in seven innings. Tampa is on rolls behind Price of 4-0 in series openers, 9-2 inside the A.L. East and 7-2 at home.
Price is coming off a rookie season in which the first of his 23 starts wasn’t until May 25. He went 8-3 with a 2.93 ERA in 12 starts at Tropicana last year – as opposed to 2-4 with a 6.24 ERA on the road – and he was 1-0 with a stout 1.93 ERA in three starts against the Yanks. He made one relief appearance against New York in 2008, giving him a 1-0 record and 2.25 ERA in four career appearances against the Pinstripes.
New York is on a boatload of “over” surges, including 6-1 overall, 4-0 after a day off, 5-0 against southpaws, 5-0 against winning teams and 7-1-1 on the highway. Also, Vazquez’s starts have led to “over” rolls of 9-1-1 against winning teams, 8-1 in series openers and 9-4-1 overall. On the flip side, Tampa is on “under” stretches of 6-2 overall (all at home and all in division play) and 3-1-1 behind Price at home.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in eight of the last 12 meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
VEGAS EXPERTS
Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trailblazers
Play: Portland Trailblazers
The Dallas Mavericks travel to Portland tonight to face the Trailblazers in a pivotal potential playoff matchup. With a win tonight and a Spurs loss, the Mavericks can clinch the Southwest Division. However the Trailblazers have had the Mavericks number this season. They have won all three meetings with the last being by 12 points as a 3.5-point favorite. Tonight Portland is in a similar spot where they are 4-point home favorites. The Trailblazers are outscoring opponents by an average of 5.2 points per game at home. We suggest a play on them here tonight.
Matt Fargo
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
Early in the season, analysis is going to be very thin as the plays are going to be based on value for the most part. Betting baseball is about finding the value and finding the spots where teams have an advantage over the line and not necessarily over the other team. That may sound strange and against common betting theory but baseball is a completely different betting situation because of the moneyline aspect of it. The Yankees are coming off an off day after a series win at Boston to start the season. To have the Yankees as a road favorite here is no surprise and it presents excellent value in the home team. Tampa Bay lost last night to prevent a sweep against the Orioles and while we were on Baltimore in that game, we are switching sides but still getting underdog money. The Yankees send Javier Vazquez to the hill for his first start in pinstripes since 2004. This is his 13th season in the Majors and he is coming off his best season a year ago with the Braves as he posted an ERA of 2.87 and a WHIP of 1.03, both career lows. That means he will be coming into this season with extremely high expectations. That puts a higher than usual price on his shoulders. Vazquez has had a rough time of it over his career against the Rays as he has a 4.36 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 12 career starts. Tampa Bay counters with David Price who did not come close to meeting expectations a season ago and that sends the value in the other direction and on our side. Price posted a 4.42 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 23 starts but he was shouldered with a lot of hype and a lot of pressure early on and he was able to settle down in the second half. In his final 12 starts he had a 3.58 ERA to go along with a 7-3 record and he carried that over into a solid spring and that should carry over here. Some of his best work last season actually came against the Yankees as he went 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in three starts. This year will likely be a good bounceback season as the pressure is clearly off from the start. Going back to last season, the Rays went 13-1 in their last 14 home games against teams with a winning percentage greater than .620. 3* Tampa Bay Rays
Cajun Sports
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Milwaukee Bucks -4.5
The Milwaukee Bucks travel to the City of Brotherly Love in hopes of capturing a win against the host 76ers on Friday night. Philadelphia has controlled this series lately going 7-1 SU/ATS including two of three this season. This Bucks team is somewhat different than the team that played in most of the previous eight in this series with the notable addition of John Salmons. Although Salmons had a poor shooting night in his only appearance against the Sixers this season going 2 of 12 from the floor but the Bucks are much improved with him as they are 20-6 since he joined the team. Milwaukee’s bench has had to step up their play with the loss of center Andrew Bogut winning and covering both contests without him in their lineup. Forward Kurt Thomas has helped on the defensive end of the floor while averaging twelve rebounds per game in their two most recent outings. On the offensive end we have seen Stackhouse, Ilyasova and Ridnour pick up the slack by hitting shots. It may seem odd to back a team that has had limited success in this series but the Sixers are 11-28 against the spread at home this season including 1-5 ATS their last 6 on this floor. Philadelphia has struggled when coming off a road loss in their last game going 1-12 ATS this season. The Sixers are also a horrible 4-13 ATS when installed as a home underdog. This Bucks team has done a great job of avenging losses during the 2009-10 campaign especially when avenging a loss as a favorite. Milwaukee is 8-1 ATS revenging a straight up loss as a favorite and a perfect 7-0 ATS revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite this season. Finally we note that the Bucks are strong off a home win of ten or more points posting a solid 8-1 ATS mark so far this season. With significant fundamental support as well as situational and technical we will back the visitor here as the Bucks buck recent history and grab a straight up and against the spread win in the City of Brotherly Love on Friday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Milwaukee Bucks 99 Philadelphia 76ers 89
Craig Trapp
New York Knicks vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Over 211.5
This should be listed at 220 but still would take over either way. NYK have been stopping no one, in fact they have been giving up over 112 pts in last 5 games. At least they have been scoring in bunches, averaging over 105 pts in last 5. ORL has been winning but not because of great defense in fact they have been just outscoring people as they have averaged triple digits the last 6 games. This one will end in the 230's as ORL scores early and often.
Rob Vinciletti
Phoenix vs. Oklahoma City
Play: Over 222
This game fits a nice 70% over angle that pertains to the Thunders short home favorite loss to Denver and The Suns home win over the Spurs which produced 110 or more points. This game tonight should be an up and down game with little or no defense. Phoenix has gone over 70% of the time on the road in games where they score 110 or more at home and OK.City has gone over 11 of 15 times at home off a home game where they scored 90 or more. Look for this one to play over the 222 tonight.
Marc Lawrence
Los Angeles Dodgers at Florida Marlins
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
When the Dodgers send Hiroki Kuroda up against the Marlins in the opener of this three games series at Sun Life Stadium in Miami Friday evening they will do so knowing Kuroda enjoyed a nice spring training where he compiled a 1.96 ERA. He also owns an excellent 2.23 ERA in four career team starts during the opening month of April. With that, look for the Dodgers to improve to 11-3 in their last 14 games in this stadium in this series while Kuroda improves to 3-1 in his career starts against the Marlins here tonight.
MTi Sports
Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros
rediction: Philadelphia Phillies
The Astros are 0-5 after a loss in which they did not draw a walk and The Phillies are 7-0 after a one run loss and it is the first game of a series. Also, Philadelphia is 6-0 after a loss in which they were tied at the end of 6 innings. Back the Phillies.
Tom Freese
Chicago Bulls at New Jersey Nets
Prediction: Chicago Bulls
New Jersey for all of their troubles have five double figure scores. Center Brook Lopez scores 18.8 points and 8.7 rebounds a game. Guard Devin Harris scores 17 points a game. The Nets score 91.9 points a game and they allow 101.2 points a game. New Jersey is 4-9 ATS their last 13 games as home underdogs and they are 2-6 ATS after allowing 100 points in their last game. Chicago is on a mission to make the Playoffs. Point Guard Derrick Rose scores 20.3 points a game. Center Joakim Noah scores. He scores double digit points as well as double digit rebounds. Forward Luol Deng scores 17.9 points a game. The Bulls score 97.1 points a game. Chicago is 5-0 ATS their last 5 road games and they are 4-0 ATS when playing with no rest. PLAY ON CHICAGO -
SEAN MURPHY
Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers -148
Both of these teams enter Friday's game off of season opening series victories, but it's the Tigers that are in better position to build off of that positive momentum here at home.
Detroit has a major advantage on the mound today, and I'm not sure that it's being properly reflected in the line.
David Huff made 23 starts for the Indians in his rookie season a year ago, and posted a solid 11-8 record. However, his 5.61 ERA and 1.56 WHIP left a lot to be desired. Opposing hitters saw the ball well against him, batting a collective .301. I'm not sure that the Indians will get much better numbers from the 25-year old left-hander this season. Keep in mind, he was a supplemental round draft pick in 2006.
Rick Porcello was a workhorse for the Tigers last year, making 31 starts and winning 14 games. Unlike Huff, he posted solid numbers in his rookie season, recording a 3.96 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Opponents hit just .267 against him. Perhaps even more encouraging was the fact that he got stronger late in the season, when most young pitchers tend to fade. From the start of August until the end of the season, Porcello allowed two earned runs or less in 10 of 13 starts.
The Tigers bullpen is in better shape today as well. While the Indians needed extra innings to get past the White Sox on Thursday night, the Tigers used a late scoring outburst to win 7-3. They didn't need to use Joel Zumaya, and closer Jose Valverde threw only 14 pitches in a perfect ninth inning.
From an offensive standpoint, the Tigers have the hottest hitter in baseball in Miguel Cabrera. He is 8-for-14 with two home runs and seven RBI through the first three games of the season. They've also received tremendous production from Magglio Ordonez, as he is 7-for-14 thus far.
There's a sense of renewed optimism in Detroit this season, and make no mistake, the Tigers home opener is big. The Indians are probably pretty satisfied after stealing a couple of games in Chicago. Give me the Tigers at a fair price this afternoon. Take Detroit.
Jim Feist
Minnesota vs. Chicago
Play: Over 8½
Both offenses have played well in the early going. The White Sox go with starter John Danks who won 13 games last season, but he was 5-7 with a 4.48 ERA at home (3.26 on the road). He's never thrown well against the Indians with a 4-5 record and a 5.42 ERA against them. Francisco Liriano goes for the Twins and is still trying to regain his form after serious shoulder surgery two years ago. He was 5-13 with a 5.80 ERA. There was even talk of moving him to the pen with the loss of star closer Joe Nathan. All in all, look for more offense than strong pitching. Play the Twins/White Sox Over the total.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Wizards/Celtics UNDER 194
I expect to see an ugly game finish under the number in Boston tonight. Plays Under on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (WASHINGTON) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent, if that opponent is off a win against a division rival, are 94-50 the last 5 seasons, 51-26 the last 3 seasons and 8-3 this season. The average posted total in these games has been 194.4 and we are only seeing teams combine for 190.5 points on average. Bet the Under tonight.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Phoenix Suns +3
The Suns are playing perhaps the best basketball in the NBA right now, having won 11 of their last 12 games and 25 of their last 31, and I expect that strong play to continue tonight. Each of the last two meetings between these teams have been close so taking the points seems to be the right call, especially since the underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Suns are also 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Thunder have now dropped 5 of their last 7 in the chalk and they are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. I'll take the Suns and the points in this one.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -1.5 +115
I'll take the Rockies on the run line at home this afternoon. Colorado is 32-8 against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 6.6 to 4.3. This trend is even more telling. The Rockies are a perfect 12-0 in Jorge De La Rosa's last 12 starts as a favorite of -150 or more, winning in these spots by an average score of 8.4 to 4.2. The Rockies will be pumped up for this one off back-to-back losses and with it being their home opener. Take the Rocks.
EZWINNERS
Chicago White Sox -109
Although he lacks the dominator factor, the White Sox starting pitcher John Danks pitches consistently well and keeps the Sox in games. Danks is only 24 years old and will only get better. I expect his strikeout rate to increase this year and you should also see an improvement in his WHIP and ERA. The Twin's starting pitcher Francisco Liriano was looking like he was going to be the next dominate pitcher in baseball before Tommy John surgery, but I'm not convinced that his velocity and slider is back to pre-injury form. Liriano has also struggled against Chicago in the past as he is 0-3 against the White Sox with an ERA of 7.52 in his career against Minnesota and the Twins were just 1-6 in Liriano's last seven starts to end last season. Play on Chicago.