SPORTS WAGERS
DETROIT –1½ +1.47 over Cleveland
1:00 PM EST. The Tribe won two of its first three games not because they played well or hit the ball but because the White Sox hit .154 in the three games. Nice. Fact is, the Indians didn’t hit much better and scored just 10 runs in the three game series and that includes an 11-inning, five-run outburst yesterday. Nobody on the team went yard in the three games and that’s what you can expect from the Indians this year. They also struck out 31 times in 107 AB’s in the three-game set against the White Sox. This is a team with a lot of young players, new faces and a ton of question marks. David Huff is in the rotation for now but don’t be surprised if he gets relegated at some point. His WHIP last year was 1.56 and anything over 1.50 is rather brutal. The league hit .301 off him, his ERA was 5.86 and his 11-8 record was perhaps the most misleading of anyone’s. Meanwhile, the Tigers won two of three in K.C. to open the year and unlike the Indians, they did it honestly. They scored 17 runs, went deep three times and hit a combined .299. Rick Porcello had a great rookie season and a great spring. His spring ERA was an impressive 1.21 in 22 innings of work. He walked just three batters while striking out 10. Against a better hitting Cleveland team last year, Porcello went 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA. The Tigers open at home in front of a packed house while the Indians didn’t finish their game last night until about midnight. Everything falls into place for an easy Tiger victory on opening day. Play: Detroit –1½ +1.47 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +1.03 over CHICAGO
After facing Westbrook, Carmona and Masterson, the South Side hit a measly .154, went 1-2 against the challenged Indians and until they show us something different, we’ll gladly go against them. Francisco Liriano had a great spring, going 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in 20 innings. He also struck out an eye-opening 30 batters while walking just five. Now, I’m no mathematician but that’s a 6-1 ratio in favor of the strikeout. The Twinkies are also off to a good start and will take the momentum of a 3-1 start into this game. Incidentally, they went yard nine times in the four game set in Anaheim and that easily leads the league right now. John Danks is a good pitcher on a good staff and that’s the reason he’s the #4 in the rotation. However, the Twins have seen plenty of him and they’ve also had success against him. In fact, the Twins faced Dank in five starts last season and went deep on him seven times in 31 innings. Danks ERA against the Twins over those five starts was an unimpressive 5.17. Play: Minnesota +1.03 (Risking 2 units).
NY RANGERS -½ +1.08 over Philadelphia
It’s all on the line tonight for the Rangers, as they’re in complete control over their destiny. The Rangers will play the Flyers in two games to close out the year and the Rangers need to win both games with at least one in regulation to get in and all starts here. The good news is that the Rangers are playing some of its best hockey of the year. They’re 5-1-1 in its last seven and in a game of this magnitude, goaltending is most definitely a factor. In that regard, Henrik Lundqvist has a big edge over Brian Boucher, who is 8-17-3 since Ray Emery and Michael Leighton have been sidelined. The Flyers have won two straight over Detroit and Toronto but the Red Wings outplayed them and started Chris Osgood in net for the first time in weeks. Osgood allowed the first shot on net in 17 second into the game. They didn’t look that good against the Leafs either. Prior to those back-to-back wins, the Flyers had lost seven of eight when they had the opportunity to lock up this thing but failed. Now the Flyers are in a precarious position and in one that could’ve been avoided but they failed. Fact is, the Flyers are not in good form and will very likely need a home win on Sunday to seal it. Chances are they won’t win that one either. Play: N.Y. Rangers -½ +1.08 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago -½ +1.12 over COLORADO
Does the Avalanche even care about this game? I don’t think they do. If they cared about strengthening their position they would have showed up against Edmonton. Now they’ll return home after games in Vancouver and Edmonton and they’re just happy to be in the playoffs and they’re happy to be home for the final weekend of the season, where they can prepare for the opening round. The Blackhawks are back in fine form and they have an opportunity to secure home-ice throughout with season ending wins here and at home Sunday vs Detroit. The Hawks are tied with the Sharks for first place in the conference but the Hawks won the season series from San Jose, so Chicago gets the tiebreaker if the two teams finish with the same number of points. The Blackhawks have shown the desire to accomplish that with five wins in a row and it’s doubtful this uninterested and inferior host gets in the way. Play: Chicago -½ +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
JR ODonnell
OKL -3.5 vs PHO
Okie City is battling for the 8th spot and the home court will be rocking tonight. Jr has no love for the Phoenix Suns here on the road as they got pasted by the Milwaukee Bucks a few games back. Playoff atmosphere here in Okie City and this small home favorite is the way to fly here from Jr's camp. Okie City owns a nice 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Pacific conference and the Thunder are 40-16 ATS in their last 56 games following a ATS loss. They bounced at Dever last game and they Roll tonight!
Tony George
MIL -4.5 vs PHI
Nice. Get the surging Bucks here at a decent price, and AVENGING a loss at home to the 76ers back on March 23rd. The Bucks are playing with meaning and purpose and at this time of the season, that counts for money in the bank as many teams have thrown it in. While Philly still plays hard, they are outmatched here. The 76ers are giving up 113 ppg on defense their last 5 games and the Bucks are playing stout defense giving up only 89 ppg in the same time frame. Enough said, I expect the Bucks to eclipse 100 points tonight and win by 8-9 points in this game.
Nelly
Dallas + over Portland
Portland has won all three meetings with Dallas this season but this final meeting will be the most meaningful as there is still plenty to sort out in the Western Conference playoff standings. The Mavericks halted a two-game losing streak with a convincing win over Memphis on Wednesday and Dallas has not had to travel all week until this game which could help the team be well rested for tonight's game. Portland, while at home tonight, has played six of the last eight games away from home. The Blazers are one a roll right now with wins in six of the last seven games including a win over the Mavericks but most of the wins have come against lesser competition. While Portland is known for having a tough home court that edge has been less evident this season with a modest 25-13 S/U mark and a losing ATS record. In contrast Dallas has been a great road performer with a 24-14 S/U record and a 23-15 ATS mark. The underdog has covered in eight of the last eleven meetings in this series. Shawn Marion will not play in tonight's game but that will create value on a Mavericks team deep enough to handle his absence.
DUNKEL INDEX
Toronto at Baltimore
The Blue Jays look to take advantage of a Baltimore team that is 1-5 in Brad Bergesen's last 6 starts against the AL East. Toronto is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Jays favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+115)
Game 901-902: San Diego at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Richard) 15.173; Colorado (De La Rosa) 14.955
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-180); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+160); Over
Game 903-904: Atlanta at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 15.285; San Francisco (Sanchez) 15.418
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+110); Under
Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Silva) 15.128; Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.316
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+115); Under
Game 907-908: Washington at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Mock) 15.516; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 13.907
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+130); Under
Game 909-910: LA Dodgers at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 15.297; Florida (Volstad) 16.351
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+110); Under
Game 911-912: Philadelphia at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Happ) 14.508; Houston 13.936
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-160); Over
Game 913-914: St. Louis at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 15.512; Milwaukee (Bush) 15.310
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-105); Under
Game 915-916: Pittsburgh at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 15.690; Arizona (Lopez) 14.190
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-135); 10
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+115); Under
Game 917-918: Cleveland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Huff) 15.249; Detroit (Porcello) 14.460
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+140); Under
Game 919-920: Toronto at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Morrow) 16.021; Baltimore (Bergesen) 15.008
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+115); Over
Game 921-922: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Vazquez) 15.500; Tampa Bay (Price) 15.869
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+100); Over
Game 923-924: Seattle at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Vargas) 14.936; Texas (Lewis) 16.020
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-150); Over
Game 925-926: Boston at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Wakefield) 14.761; Kansas City (Davies) 15.208
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+140); Over
Game 927-928: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano) 15.102; White Sox (Danks) 15.360
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-115); Over
Game 929-930: Oakland at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gonzalez) 14.826; LA Angels (Palmer) 16.524
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-140); Under
David Malinsky
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Seattle Mariners +140
Sometimes the equations can be rather simple – the Rangers do not bring enough to be in this price range. They are struggling mightily on offense, with Ian Kinsler and Jarrod Saltalamacchia sidelined; Michael Young off to a .100 start; and Josh Hamilton relegated to pinch-hitting duties on Thursday, after his 0-8 opening included four Wednesday strikeouts. And before dismissing Saltalamacchia as not being a major factor, note that replacement Taylor Teagarden batted just .217 LY, and he whiffed twice in his 0-4 on Thursday. Then there is the pitching. Colby Lewis has made one Major League start since 2004, trying to work his way back after a couple of decent seasons in Japan, but there was nothing special with his stuff in spring training (1-1/5.30 over 18.2 innings), and he can not project out to anything better than a journeyman at best. Then there is the bullpen, which worked to a 7.71 tune in the opening series vs. Toronto, including a blown save by Frank Francisco yesterday, when he had to be pulled after missing the strike zone on 12 of his 26 pitches. As much as Ron Washington had to like seeing seven shutout innings from C. J. Wilson, there is also the regret that Wilson will not be available from that bullpen.
As we noted in backing the Mariners on Monday, there will be some subtle value spots with them this season because that defense is so good. Jason Vargas does not bring overpowering stuff but he throws strikes (2.62 Walks per 9 at AAA LY; 2.36 with the Mariners; and off of a 3.04 ERA through 23.2 spring innings in which he only walked seven), and that makes him a decent fit here – he can force that depleted and slumping Texas lineup to make things happen with the lumber, all the while having what may be baseball’s best defense to make plays behind him. The bullpen also brings all key arms rested and ready, which leads to substantial value in this price range.
John Ryan
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
3* graded play on Philadelphia as they take on Houston set to start at 8:05 EST. Houston starts out getting swept by the Giants and have scored just 6 runs total. Now they face perhaps the best 4th starter in the NL in JA Happ. By the way, they have given up 18 runs in those 3 games. Now, the first three games offer little in determining where these teams will finish, but it is clear that right now Houston is playing poorly. Phillies took 2 of 3 from the Nationals and actually left 11 runners on base in their loss yesterday. Phillies are a solid 31-11 (+17.3 Units) against the money line after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival over the last 2 seasons. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Phillies will win this game easily. Jimmy Rollins is off to a hot start and is batting 333 in his career against Houston. Norris is not a dominating lefty and has just 10 MLB starts of experience. Moreover, Charlie Manuel knows how to motivate his troops off a divisional loss. He is 24-8 (+16.5 Units) against the money line in road games off a loss to a division rival as a favorite as the manager of the Phillies. Over the past 3 games, the Phillies are batting 324 and are tied for first in MLB in runs scored with 19. We certainly do not see them cooling off anytime soon. Take the Phillies.
Wunderdog
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: San Diego Padres +1.5
Clayton Richard may turn out to be a star for the San Diego Padres. He made 12 starts a year ago with the Padres winning nine of them. Jorge DeLaRosa turned into a very capable starter for the Rockies over the second half as well. The problem is that it was more the Rockies’ bats than his pitching. Despite winning three of his last four starts, the Rockies would of been 0-4 vs. a -1.5 runline. Richard has the ability to keep the Rockies’ bats silent, especially early in the season. The Padres have a nice run going back to last year where they are 13-3 following a loss and will be in this one. I'll go with San Diego on the runline.
Lee Kostroski
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox
PICK: Chicago White Sox -105
The Twins have won three straight games but this could be a really tough situation Friday night in Chicago. Minnesota played a late night game in Anaheim Thursday and faced long travel back to the Midwest and into the much colder elements at U.S. Cellular Field. The Twins had a lot of success in this series last season, including winning nine of the final ten meetings last season but the three critical late season wins in Chicago came with the White Sox well out of the race and with the Twins playing for their playoff lives. Chicago won four of six games in Chicago in the early season meetings and the series was very home team dominated in 2008.
Francisco Liriano had a strong spring, but he was sharp last spring as well before turning out a 5-13 record with a 5.80 ERA and a trip to the bullpen last season. Liriano has never re-gained the form or confidence that he had before his major elbow surgery. Since returning his walk numbers have been very high and he has been prone to allowing home runs. He can still post solid strikeout numbers but he rarely was sharp past the third or fourth inning last season and most hitter had a lot of success against him the second and third times through the order, something that rarely happens in spring training games. Minnesota’s bullpen has delivered so far but it will still be a major area of concern in the coming weeks until things are sorted out following the loss of Joe Nathan.
Chicago has lost back-to-back games after a strong opening performance against Cleveland. Last night Chicago lost in extra-innings after a strong start from Gavin Floyd and a good effort from most of the relievers that pitched. Chicago left eleven runners on base so there were plenty of missed opportunities. While the Twins do not allow many walks in general, Liriano has had control issues and the White Sox are one of the most patient teams in the league, already drawing 19 walks in three games. Chicago finished with a losing record last season but the White Sox a winning team at home and against left-handed starters so this match-up should also play to some strength for the Southsiders.
John Danks had a poor start the last time he faced the Twins but generally in his career he has been a tough match-up for Minnesota. The Twins have a lineup filled with left-handed hitters and tonight Danks should face one of the weaker Minnesota lineups available as MVP Joe Mauer will sit following four consecutive starts and the power in the lineup from Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel will be neutralized. Danks won just 13 games last season but had a 3.77 ERA for his second excellent season in a row as a full-time starter. The Chicago bullpen did not get the job done last night but this has been a strong unit the last two years. Look for the White Sox to prevail is what works out to be a very tough situation for the Twins. Minnesota is also a bit overvalued here coming off the strong west coast start as this is normally a team that struggled away from home.
Larry Ness
Chicago @ New Jersey
PICK: New Jersey +6
With LeBron taking the night off, the Bulls beat the Cavs 109-108 last night. The victory was the Bulls’ seventh in 10 games and moved them into a tie with Toronto for the eighth and final playoff spot in the East. There are just four games remaining plus the injury to Toronto's best player Chris Bosh gives the Bulls an edge down the stretch. Derrick Rose (20.2-5.9 APG) and Joakim Noah (10.3-10.7) have shaken off minor injuries plus Deng (17.8-7.4) has returned to form the last four games after missing 11 straight games with a calf injury. While the Bulls have all of the motivation, I want the Nets in this one. They've gotten enough wins of late to avoid finishing with the worst-ever record in NBA history and they now have an opportunity to play 'spoilers.' Why not here against the Bulls? The Nets have won FOUR of their last five games (lone loss to red-hot Phoenix) and I'm taking the points.
Ben Burns
Philadelphia Flyers @ New York Rangers
PICK: New York Rangers -140
his is a huge home and home series for these teams, as they're fighting for the final playoff spot. However, its bigger for the Rangers, as they have less room for error. They need to sweep these two games (or have Boston fall apart) while the Flyers are still alive, even if they lose here. Given that situation and with today's game being played at MSG, I feel the price on the Rangers is fair.
The Flyers are off back to back wins. However, they're still 2-5 their last seven road games and both wins came against teams which will not be making the playoffs. The Rangers have been on a nice roll, going 6-2 their last eight, including 2-0 their last two at home.
Including a 3-1 victory in the last meeting here, the Rangers are 3-1 the last four times that they were a host in this series. They held the Flyers to one goal in all three victories. Consider New York
Rocketman
Chicago Bulls vs. New Jersey Nets
Play: New Jersey +5.5
New Jersey is 18-6 SU and 17-7 ATS at home vs Chicago since 1996 including 3-1 SU and ATS at home vs Chicago last 3 years. Bulls are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss. Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Friday games. Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Nets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest. Home team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Bulls are 2-10 ATS in the last 12 meetings in New Jersey. We'll recommend a small play on New Jersey tonight!
Teddy Covers
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Cincinnati Reds -132
The Cubs came into the season with a boatload of question marks. None of those questions were answered in their season opening series at Atlanta. The Cubs lost two out of three against the Braves, outscored 19-9 in the process. Their lone win came via a Randy Wells/bullpen 2-0 shutout yesterday; a game in which Chicago’s lineup managed a grand total of four hits.
The previous night, Chicago managed only seven hits (six of them singles), and watched their suspect bullpen blow a late one run lead. This is not a Cubs team poised for great success right now, particularly with Carlos Silva on the hill, coming off two miserable seasons in Seattle over the last two years. It’s surely worth noting that the Reds, as a team, have hit .429 against Silva in his MLB career.
The Reds got their first win yesterday with a walk-off home run in the ninth to knock off St Louis. After facing Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Brad Penny in their first three games, facing Silva should help their offense get untracked here. And Reds starter Homer Bailey might not be quite the ‘phenom’ that he was projected to be a few years ago, but he did close out last season with a 6-1 record and a 1.70 ERA in his last nine starts. 2* Take Cincinnati.
Black Widow
1* on Dallas Mavericks +5
The Mavs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games. The Blazers are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take Dallas and the points.
Jack Jones
Charlotte Bobcats +1
Much more important game for the Bobcats here. Charlotte is playing some of the best basketball in the NBA right now, going 14-5 over their last 19 games. They are looking to earn the #5 seed in the Eastern Conference while Houston is just playing out their season, officially eliminated from the playoffs. Charlotte is 55-38 ATS as an underdog over teh last 2 seasons and the Bobcats are 19-9 ATS after a non-conference game this season.
Houston is 6-16 ATS after a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Rockets have been playing well of late, but this game means nothing to them while it means a lot to the Bobcats. I'll always side with the more motivated team this late in the season when the value is right, and the value here is clearly with Charlotte. Take the Bobcats.