Hollywood Sports
Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks
Despite the loss of center Andrew Bogut to season-ending surgery on his elbow, Milwaukee (44-34) has kept up their winning ways. They have now win three in a row (two without Bogut) after their 108-89 win over New Jersey on Wednesday. The Bucks have now won five of their last seven games while covering the spread in all those games. Now the Bucks will be looking to avenge a 101-86 loss at home to the 76ers on March 24th. Philadelphia (26-52) is in the tank having lost five games in a row and 18 of their last 22 games. They have failed to cover in 14 of their last 18 home games as an underdog. Milwaukee typically keeps their momentum going as they have covered 21 of their last 28 games after a double-digit win. And the Bucks have covered five straight road games as a favorite of under five points. Milwaukee should take care of business tonight against a Philly club playing out the string. Lay the points with the Bucks.
Dennis Macklin
Detroit Red Wings -125
This number looks extremely cheap and not sure why. The Wings are raging 8-2 in their L10, the Blue Jackets have lost four straight, all by one goal. Key here is that Columbus somewhat of the red-headed stepchild here winning just once in L10 meetings in the series. Add to the mix Jackets 11-32 L43 record against winning records and Motown looks like a gimme. Take road warrior Detroit.
SPORTS WAGERS
BOSTON –11½ over Washington
Doc Rivers is no idiot. He knows, and he’ll drill into the minds of his players, that a team just can’t turn on a switch come playoff time. The Celtics have been laboring or just going through the motions on way too many occasions this year and now it’s time to get down to business. The C’s are tied with the Hawks for third in the East and finishing ahead of Atlanta is important. More than that, however, is that the Celtics need to be in playoff mode and they need to get into that mindset now. They should name the score against this dreadful opponent and anything other than an easy and convincing win will be frowned upon. The Celtics are still one of the most talented teams in the league with perhaps the best defense in the league and on a Friday night in Boston, it really is time to get down to business. Play: Boston –11½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
Sac Lawson
TAM / NYY Under 9.5
Simply have to love the amount of respect both these lineups get from oddsmakers and public money alike. Listen, the Yankees aren't going to score 10 runs every night.. It's just not going to happen. Yes they are a good lineup, but we've got them on the road tonight against a guy in David Price that is a bit wild, but has been absolutely lights out in his career against the Yanks. We're talking 3 starts and just a 1.93 ERA. As I said, the guy is a bit wild and inconsistent at this point in his young career, but he seems to step up to the plate in big games, and especially against the Yankees.
On the other side.. I'm a big fan of Vasquez.. This is a guy that flat out does not get hit often, and he's facing up against a TB squad that really hasn't brought any hot bats to the table yet this year. They've had mediocre offensive performances in all three of their games against subpar Baltimore pitching. I've gotta think that Vasquez is in a good spot to succeed here.
I really think we're getting a heavy line just because New York played 2 out of the 3 games against Boston in high scoring fashion. In reality, this line should be 8.5, and probably would be later in the season with more statistics to go off of. That being said, there is solid value betting on both these starters to have good outings and keep this game in the 4-2 range!
Dan Bebe
MIN (-102) vs CWS
This line dropped quick and leveled off, and while a great deal of the value has been sucked out, I feel that Minnesota has a much greater than 50/50 shot at winning this game, so we're making it a play.
Francisco Liriano is finally healthy, and it's been a while. We can use this to our advantage, though, as Liriano was as nasty a pitcher as we had seen in the MLB before his elbow problems messed with his velocity, shattered his confidence, and ruined his control.
His career numbers against the White Sox are largely impacted by 2 awful appearances against them early last year when he just didn't have it. Fortunately, we know baseball is more than just 2 abysmal starts. His numbers are wildly inflated against Chicago, and that's why this line came out where it did.
On Chicago's side, there is no team that John Danks would less like to face than the Twins. There are more than a handful of Twins regulars that have sliced Danks to pieces over the years (namely, Michael Cuddyer), and while he can be an excellent starter at times, the Twins will get to Danks and put up a few tallies.
If Liriano can tread lightly around Paul Konerko, he should be solid for 5 strong innings. The Sox have long been a strikeout club, and if Liriano has his pitches working, he could potentially rack up a few. All we've been hearing is how Liriano has his velocity and confidence back, and I believe he comes out looking to prove he's back.
On top of all that, the Twins have gotten off to a very hot start in 2010, winning the final 3 games of their season-opening 4-game set in Anaheim. The White Sox, on the other hand, won their opener, and lost the last 2. It's a hot team against a cold team, and an underrated starter against a good one that stinks against the Twins.
Jeff Benton
That’s now 18 of 20 winning comp plays after the Orioles cashed a big underdog ticket on Thursday. In addition to my 18-2 roll with freebies, I’m also on runs of 57-24-2 and 38-14-2 with plays that I’m giving away!
For Friday, we’ll head back to the diamond and play another underdog, taking the Nationals at the Mets.
I’m big on fading New York right now until the oddsmakers catch up with the fact that this is NOT a very good team at all. Other than David Wright (who runs hot and cold) and Jason Bay, there’s not a hitter to fear in the Mets’ lineup to fear until Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran return. At the same time, Washington’s offense is sneaky good, with speedster Nyjer Morgan at the top followed by veterans Christian Guzman, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham.
True, the Nationals just lost two of three at home to the Phillies, but the Phillies are far-and-away the class of the National League. And the two games they lost were against Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels. When Washington finally got a chance to step in against a mediocre pitcher (Kyle Kendrick) yesterday, its offense picked up, posting a 6-5 victory with five of those runs scored in the first three innings.
Today, the Nationals get to tee off on overrated Mets right-hander Mike Pelfrey, who recorded a 6.15 ERA in the spring after going 10-12 with a bloated 5.03 ERA last season. Pelfrey faced Washington four times last year, and after winning the first one, New York lost the next three. In fact, the Nats are 6-3 the last nine times they’ve faced Pelfrey. They also won the final three 2009 meetings with the Mets and went 6-2 over the final eight clashes.
Finally, New York has started the season by losing two of three at home to Florida (the only game the Mets won, Johan Santana started), and going back to last season, the Mets are in a 9-19 overall funk and they’ve lost 37 of 51 against N.L. East rivals.
4♦ WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Scott Delaney
Atlanta at San Francisco
The Giants' pitching rotation looked phenomenal in a series sweep of the Astros, in Houston. For their home opener, against what might be a weary Braves team, I like them to give the home crowd a thrill.
Atlanta played late last night at home, and lost to the Cubs, and now will play a matinee in the Bay Area, and though veteran Timmy Hudson is toeing the slab for the NL Tribe, it won't matter.
The rest of the team will barely have any energy, and that should benefit Jonathan Sanchez, who should be able to give the Giants a fourth straight strong outing, after starters Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito and Cain combined to stifle the Astros to three earned runs and 13 hits over 19-2/3 innings.
The Braves have lost four straight and seven of eight at San Francisco.
Take the home underdog in this one.
2♦ GIANTS
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is on the Phoenix Suns. I've won so much money on the OKC Thunder this year I feel like I owe them something. Granted, I wasn't able to get it done the other night when they blew a 13-point fourth quarter lead and eventually the game vs. Denver. But I still feel like I was on the right side and I'd release that same play again, no question. But Phoenix has their number and are trying desperately to get that #2 seed in the West. OKC, on the other hand, is just trying to not completely melt down before the playoffs get here. That loss in Utah took a lot out of them, and then you combine that with their meltdown at home vs. Denver and you have to wonder if these young kids might have hit a wall.
Phoenix is a veteran team that knows how to get it done in these type of situations. The Suns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and have lost just one time in their last 10 games vs. OKC/Seattle. When one team has another's number like this, you have to jump on it. I will... and I'm getting points too.
2♦ PHOENIX SUNS
Stephen Nover
San Diego (+160) at COLORADO
I won another complementary baseball selection on Wednesday with the underdog National beating the Phillies, giving me a 3-1 mark with complimentary releases on the young season, not to mention an overall mark of 6-2 with all plays released on the diamond.
The San Diego Padres are a better offensive team than given credit for, especially when on the road.
Jorge De La Rosa had a break through season last year, but I'm not sold on him. De La Rosa has struggled versus San Diego. He was 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA in five starts against them last year. Lifetime, De La Rosa is 0-2 with a 5.94 ERA against the Padres.
The Padres held their own at Coors Field last season going 4-5.
Clayton Richard gets the starting call for San Diego. He's a promising pitcher who induces a lot of ground ball outs, which is a key when pitching at Coors Field. The Padres have won Richard's last four starts.
At this big of a 'dog price, the Padres are worth taking a shot on.
2♦ PADRES
Washington at N.Y. METS
A pitching matchup of Garrett Mock versus Mike Pelfrey with a total of less than 10 puts me on the over.
Yes, I know the Mets haven't been scoring runs missing Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and Daniel Murphy and that Citi Field is a spacious pitcher's park.
But the weather is supposed to be nice with temperatures in the low 60s and the wind blowing out to left field.
The Mets should be able to do damage against Mock, the fifth starter for one of the worst teams in baseball. Mock was hit hard during his last two spring training starts. One of those games was versus the Astros' minor league team.
Making matters worse for the Nationals is terrible defense and an unsettled bullpen.
Washington's strength is its offense. The Nationals have the power to take advantage of Pelfrey, who has been plagued by giving up the long ball. Josh Willingham is batting .412 versus Pelfrey with two homers in 17 career at bats against him.
Pelfrey has not been a good April pitcher. He has a 5.92 ERA in 10 April starts.
1♦ NATIONALS/METS OVER
Karl Garrett
Atlanta at SAN FRANCISCO (+120)
Thursday free play winner on Sacramento, now 32-25-1 with my comp plays.
Afternoon baseball by the Bay this Friday, as the Giants return for their home opener fresh off their 3 game sweep of Houston at Minute Maid.
Good spot for the Gints, as they catch an Atlanta team that played last night at home, and now have to play a day game on west coast time. Can you say, sluggish?
San Francisco did sweep all 3 meetings at home last year versus the Braves, and they have won 5 of the last 6 home games against the Braves.
Hudson and Sanchez will do battle, and in my mind the wrong team is favored here, as I expect a big season from the kid Sanchez who did record 5 of his 8 wins last season at home.
Giants have a little something brewing early this season, and today they take advantage of a tired Braves team.
4♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Michael Cannon
St. Louis (-105) at MILWAUKEE
I’m now 25-18 with my last 43 free plays.
Take the Cardinals for the road win over the Brewers.
St. Louis has absolutely dominated this series in Milwaukee, winning seven of the nine matchups in Miller Park last year. The Cards only allowed 14 runs in those nine games and have won the last four in a row.
The Brewers will start Dave Bush, who is 2-6 with a 6.65 ERA in eight career starts versus the Red Birds. The right-hander is coming off a career-worst 6.38 ERA last season, during which he spent time on the disabled list due to arm fatigue.
Take the Cardinals as they grab the road win.
3♦ ST. LOUIS
Brandon Lang
New York at ORLANDO (-12)
14 of my last 25 free picks have cashed in.
So the Knicks have covered their last 3 games, all as the underdog. I am sorry, but they won't be in this game tonight against Orlando.
The Magic has won both meetings this year against New York, and they have won both meetings by double digits.
Orlando just doesn't lose that often at home, and they also don't usually lose against the points at home either. Orlando's latest home winning streak is 5 in a row, going 3-1-1 ATS.
For the year Orlando is 32-7 SU at home, and 22-16-1 against the spread.
Watch the Magic blowout the Knicks tonight.
Derek Mancini
Indiana (+3) at CLEVELAND
Nice Freebie winner with the Kings crushing the Clippers 116-94 Thursday! Still sticking to the NBA Hardwood Friday, as I'm fading the Cavaliers in a match up that is going to be much tougher than expected.
Pacers aren't going to the Playoffs, but they sure as hell are playing Playoff-type basketball. Indiana is 8-2 L10 games (6-3-1 ATS), incl. wins over OKC and Utah. Maybe too little, too late for them, but the Pacers will be motivated to stick it to the best team in the East tonight, even if they're without James.
If James and Williams sit out (as expected), and we know O'neal and Jamison probably aren't going to play, how do you expect the Cavaliers to match up? Granger, Murphy, and Hibbert make up one of the hottest frontlines in the NBA right now, and Jawad Williams and JJ Hickson are simply not going to be able to stop this go-go Pacers offense.
I made the mistake of taking the Bulls last night (at -2 before the line jumped), and some terrible free throw shooting and 35 points from Mo Williams cost me. Take away Williams and Jamison (58 combined points vs Bulls) and the Cavs had nothing last night. Throw in the fatigue factor and a red-hot (and healthy) Pacers team, and Cleveland is in big trouble tonight. Pacers plus the points is the play Friday.
4♦ INDIANA
Bobby Maxwell
Phoenix (+3') at OKLAHOMA CITY
I'm on a 79-54-3 FREE play run and coming with an NBA winner for you tonight as I go with the Suns on the road in Oklahoma City taking on the Thunder.
Phoenix is playing its best basketball of the season and has absolutely dominated the Thunder over the last few years. I know it’s a whole new game in Oklahoma City now, but the Suns are fighting to get that No. 2 seed in the West and they’ll come out and get the cover, if not the outright win.
Phoenix has won 11 of 12 and cashed in eight of those 12, including an impressive 112-101 win over the Spurs on Wednesday. Amare Stoudemire is playing damn well lately and he had 29 points and eight boards against Tim Duncan and Antonio McDyess on Wednesday night. He will have a big advantage in the middle tonight as the Thunder rely on perimeter play for their points and are a little weak in the middle.
Oklahoma City has had two tough losses in the last three nights, falling 140-139 in Utah in one of the best games of the NBA season, then returning home on Wednesday and losing to the Nuggets 98-94 after leading by as many as 13 in the fourth quarter.
The Suns have won nine of the last 10 meetings with the Thunder, including a 104-102 win as a 6 ½-point underdog back on Feb. 23. In this rivalry, the underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10.
Phoenix has been a money-making machine lately, on ATS runs of 22-8-1 overall, 11-4 on the road, 18-7-1 after they get a day off and 11-5-1 against winning teams.
This game is coming down to the final minute so grab the points with the Suns.
4♦ PHOENIX
Chris Jordan
Phoenix at OKLAHOMA CITY (-3')
While the Suns are looking to keep their late-season surge alive, they have to be wondering what the hype is all about with the Thunder from Oak City.
I know Phoenix has won 11 of 12 and would love nothing more than to stay sharp over its last four games, but the Thunder have been playing well and have a chance to better their seeding in the Western Conference standings if they win out.
Kevin Durant, who now leads the league in scoring and is easily vying for the MVP title this season, has made it clear he and his teammates need to treat their final four games - against the Suns, Golden State, Portland and Memphis - like they're playoff games in order to properly prepare for the postseason.
Checking the betting numbers, the Thunder are on ATS runs of 13-3 on Friday nights and 7-3 against Pacific Division teams, while the Suns are mired in a 4-10 ATS slide in this series. Take the home chalk here.
2♦ THUNDER