Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, December 10,2010

Tom Freese

Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Miami Heat

Golden St is 8-14 straight up this year. The Warriors are 4-9-1 ATS their last 14 games overall and they are 3-8 ATS when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their last game. The Warriors are. Golden St is 0-5 ATS their last 5 home games and they are 0-3-1 ATS off a double digit loss. Miami is 15-8 straight up this year. The Heat are 15-7 ATS their last 22 games as a road favorite. The Heat are 5-0 ATS off a straight up win. Miami is 37-17-2 ATS their last 55 games vs. Pacific Division teams. The Heat are 8-2 ATS their last 10 games as road favorites.

Scott Spreitzer

Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz
Play: Utah Jazz

Utah is off to a 16-7 start, but they're just 9-5 at home after getting knocked around by Miami last time out. But they'll host an Orlando Magic team that's playing their fifth road game and sixth game overall since December 1. Orlando has not fared well of late dropping three straight games. The Magic may be a bit worn out again tonight thanks to a stomach flu that's been traveling around the lockeroom. As it is, the Magic have been a dead-set play-against in tonight's situation, going just 1-5 ATS in the second of back-to-back nights. And thanks to the fact that the Magic should be a little weary for this one, I expect the Jazz guards to make quick work of Orlando's backcourt. Guard Deron Williams and forward Paul Millsap lit-up the Magic in a 104-94 win in Orlando on November 10. Williams had no trouble at all with Jameer Nelson. Besides the matchups, I also like the fact that Utah has had a couple of days off to think about that ugly home loss to Miami last time out. The Jazz normally do well in this spot, currently on an 11-4 ATS run following a loss by at least 11 points. The Jazz are 29-14 ATS off a loss in general. Meanwhile, the Magic back into this one having covered just two of their last 11 road games. Look for Utah to bounce back with a win and cover on Friday night.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Miami Heat at Golden St Warriors

Total mismatch here. Heat have won six straight - all by double digits (average of 16.5 PPG) - and play a Warriors team likely without G Curry. Golden State has just one win since mid-November and it was over Minnesota. Only thing interesting about this game is the chance to hear Bill Simmons on commentary.

Play on: Miami

LARRY NESS

Miami @ Golden State
PICK: Over 204

he Heat have won six in a row (5-1 ATS), averaging 101.3 PPG while shooting 51 percent from the floor. The team likely played its most impressive game of the season Wednesday night, routing the Jazz 111-98 in Salt Lake City. LBJ had 33-7-9, Wade 28 and Bosh 14-9. During the team's six-game winning streak, LBJ's numbers are 26.3-6.2-5.8, Wade's are 23.8-7.8-4.7 and Bosh's 18.0-8.3. THIS is what everyone expected. There is little reason not to think that the Heat will roll over the Warriors. Golden St ranks 28th in points allowed (107.0) and is coming off a three-game road trip in which it allowed 110.0 PPG to Oklahoma City, Dallas and San Antonio. In mid-November the Warriors lost 79-72 at Milwaukee and then in their next game, won 101-97 at home vs Detroit. In the team's 11 games since, just ONCE have the Warriors held an opponent under triple digits, a 104-94 win at Minnesota. The Warriors have allowed an average of 111.3 PPG in their last 11 games with games averaging 212.6 PPG. I see no reason for this game to NOT exceed that number, giving us a comfortable win on the over.

BEN BURNS

Portland @ Phoenix
PICK: Phoenix -5.5

Its still early December but the Suns and Blazers will be meeting for the third time already tonight. I went 2-0 in this season's first two meetings. On "opening night," I won with the Suns/Blazers 'under' the total. More recently, on 12/7, I won with the Blazers, as they earned a 106-99 victory.

Tonight, the situation favors the Suns though. The first two games were both at Portland, where the Suns have long struggled. Tonight's game is at Phoenix, where the Suns tend to play much better. (They're 72-28 their last 100 games here while the Blazers are 49-51 their last 100 on the road.)

Also, the Suns are playing with "double-revenge," having lost both the earlier meetings.

After Tuesday's loss at Portland, the Suns returned home and were beaten by Memphis the next night. Note that they're 18-13-1 ATS (24-8 SU) the past few seasons, when coming off an 'upset' loss.

While the Suns had last night off, the Blazers were busying beating up on Orlando. Its true that they've been a strong team when playing the second of back to back games (one of the reasons this isn't a higher rated play for me) but that doesn't mean that they "prefer" to be in that situation. Note that the Blazers are just 9-15 ATS the last 24 times that they were coming off an 'upset' win. During that stretch, they've also gone 7-11 ATS when listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range.

With the Suns at 12-6-2 ATS (16-4 SU) the last 20 times that they were a host in this series, consider laying the points.

Tom Stryker

L.A. Lakers @ Chicago
PICK: L.A. Lakers -1.5

The Lakers have quietly won seven straight against the Bulls with their smallest margin of victory coming by seven points (twice). Head coach Phil Jackson and Los Angeles All-Star guard Kobe Bryant own Chicago and they'll continue their dominance in this series on Friday night.

The fact that LA is off back-to-back pointspread losses helps our cause. As an Eastern Conference guest checking in off a pair of ATS blemishes, the Lakers are a profitable 26-11-1 ATS provided they're matched up against an opponent that checks in off a straight up win. Equally impressive, when going into momentum and battling a foe that enters off three or more straight up victories, LA has been outstanding posting a juicy 20-5-1 ATS record.

Even in the days of Michael Jordan, Western Conference teams have given Chicago fits in the Windy City. In fact, as a non-conference host taking the floor with both teams rested, the Bulls are a soft 58-97-4 ATS including a dismal 15-34-2 ATS in this role checking in with momentum off two or more straight up wins.

One thing the Lakers have been able to do over the years is win on the road. Currently, LA owns a 6-4 SU mark on foreign soil and they visit Chicago, New Jersey, Washington, Indiana, Philadelphia and Toronto in this six-game road trip. The Bulls are the only team that sports a winning record in that bunch and you can be darn sure Coach Jackson is going to challenge his troops here. With the ESPN cameras rolling, the Lakers will pick up a nice win. Take Los Angeles.

SEAN MURPHY

Fairfield @ Siena
Pick: Fairfield +7

Thanks to their ugly 1-3 ATS record through four lined games this season, we're able to grab exceptional value with the Fairfield Stags on Friday night.

The Stags do enter this MAAC showdown with some confidence, having won four games in a row SU. Of course only one of those four games featured a line, and Fairfield took care of business, winning by 20 points as a 5.5-point favorite against Loyola-Maryland.

Siena has been wildly inconsistent so far this season, looking particularly strong in wins over Northeastern and Rider while struggling in its last two games, both losses, against Princeton and Albany.

With that being said, the Saints still own a winning 3-2 ATS record in lined contests this season, and they're certainly being given the benefit of the doubt by oddsmakers here on Friday.

This was a tight series last season. The Stags and Saints met three times with each of those games being decided by eight points or less, and one of them, in the MAAC Tournament, needing overtime. In their lone regular season matchup here in Albany, Siena barely pulled out a 69-67 victory.

Fairfield has been on a major role against conference foes, riding an 11-1 ATS run dating back to last season. The Stags are already off to a perfect start in-conference here in 2010 - as I mentioned earlier they crushed Loyola-Maryland by 20 points last week.

I'll back the stronger defensive team to stay inside an inflated number on Friday night. Take Fairfield.

Ray Monohan

Montreal vs. Detroit
Play: Under 5.5

Montreal netminder Carey Price is on amazing form right now. On the season, he has 17 wins, a 1.92 goals against average, a .936 save percentage and four shutouts. If it weren’t for Tim Thomas, he’d be running away with the Vezina Trophy. The Red Wings are tied for the highest -scoring team in the NHL but are in a skid right now, losing three straight games. Of Montreal’s 11 road games this season, 10 have gone UNDER the total.

JIM FEIST

ORLANDO / UTAH
PLAY: OVER

Orlando plays its best defense at home, but they are long way from home in this one. It's also the second of a back to back spot and look for Utah to run right at the tired Magic legs. Utah has plenty of young legs, led by sparkplug guard Deron Williams, who had 12 assists the last game. But the defense allowed 53% shooting in a 111-98 home loss to Miami as Utah couldn't stop the pick-and-roll. This is the 6th straight home game for rested Utah, so look for them to run. Play the Magic/Jazz Over the total.

Sam Martin

Iowa State at Iowa
Play: Iowa State

In-state rivals take the court today, and we're going to take the points with the road underdog here tonight. Iowa has already lost four games, including an opening season loss against South Dakota State, and while the Cyclones haven't played a very tough schedule, they play excellent half court offense and defense. In fact, Iowa State has held 6 of their 9 opponents to 37% shooting or worse! Hawkeyes have no confidence with their slow start and a brutal Big Ten Conference schedule coming up, and we think Iowa State steals a win here.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on New Orleans Hornets -3

Expect New Orleans to avenge last month's loss to Oklahoma City at home tonight. The Hornets are a strong 9-2 at home this season where they are winning by 6.7 ppg. In addition, All-Star point guard Chris Paul has never lost to the Thunder on his home floor. The Hornets have won 8 in a row at home in this series with Paul in the lineup. In addition, the Thunder have not looked good on the road lately against inferior opponents. As a result, they are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. It is also worth noting that they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. The Hornets have the big edge on the defensive end tonight. They are only giving up 91.8 ppg while the Thunder are allowing 103.4 ppg. I just don't see OKC getting enough stops to keep the favorite from covering for the 5th time in the last six meetings in this series. Expect Paul to live in the paint with his dribble penetration, leading the Hornets to a win and cover in the process. Lay the points.

Rocketman Sports

New York Knicks vs. Washington Wizards
Play: New York Knicks -2

New York is 14-9 overall this year while Washington comes in with a 6-15 overall record on the season. New York is 11-2 ATS on the road this year. Washington is 1-5 ATS this year against Atlantic Division opponents. New York is scoring 108 points per game overall and 109.4 points per game on the road this season. Washington is allowing 106.6 points per game overall this year. New York has won 6 games in a row heading into tonight's contest. Washington has lost 7 of their last 8 games overall. New York is 7-2 SU and ATS overall vs Washington last 3 years. We'll recommend a small play on New York tonight!

Rob Vinciletti

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: Phoenix Suns -5.5

The Suns come into this one off back to back losses and double revenge for a pair of losses in Portland this season. Now they catch the Blazers off a big home dog win against Orlando last night. The Blazers are 1-4 ats this season after allowing 85 or less points. Even worse for Portland is their record in Phoenix with no rest. They are 0-6 straight up and 1-5 ats in this role. When they play on the road with no rest as an underdog and scored 90 or more as a home dog they are 0-5 straight up and against the spread the last few years. Look for Phoenix to emerge with the win and cover tonight.

LT Profits

Rockets / Bucks Over 196

There is an interesting contrast in styles on the NBA betting odds on Friday night when the Houston Rockets, who normally both score and allow triple-digits, visit the lowest scoring team in the NBA in the Milwaukee Bucks.

The NBA latest line from Bookmaker has the total for this contest set at 196, with the betting odds set at -110.

While the Bucks are averaging a scant 91.2 points per game overall in NBA betting this season, they do have a couple of bona fide NBA scorers, most notably young Brandon Jennings. We feel that the Bucks will get caught up in Houston’s pace here, and let’s face it the Rockets can make any opposing offense look good, and we think the end result will be this NBA matchup getting into the 200s.

The Rockets are simultaneously averaging 105.3 points per game and allowing 105.7 points per contest, and they have been even more wide open on the road this year, where their games averaging a whopping 215.6 points per game combined. Also, the ‘over’ is 6-2-1 vs. the NBA odds in the last nine head-to-head meetings between these clubs here in Milwaukee, and the Rockets’ style of play this year suggests that trend will continue.

Besides, as bad as the Bucks have been offensively season-to-date, they have managed to score points vs. bad defenses lately, such as their 97point outburst vs. the Indiana Pacers in their last game. They even scored 104 points vs. Charlotte and 96 points vs. Orlando, which are two excellent defenses, all within their last six games, so they can easily go over 100 points tonight given the opponent and the expected pace.

Remember that the Rockets are still without Yao Ming, so with no big bodies clogging the lane, go ‘over’ in this NBA matchup.