Matt Fargo
New York Knicks at Washington Wizards
Play: Washington Wizards 2.5
Washington is back home following another winless roadtrip where it went 0-3 to move to 0-12 on the road for the season. Surprisingly the Wizards played their best game against the Lakers in the second game of the trek but paid the price as John Wall was injured and missed the final game against Sacramento where they were blown out by 25 points. The good news tonight is that Wall, along with forward Andray Blatche, are both listed as probable and should be in action Friday. The Knicks are coming off a win over Toronto on Wednesday. I played against New York in that game and the Knicks were unable to cover that number and I will be fading once again for a lot of the same reasons. New York has won six straight games and it is 11-1 over its last 12 games but with that comes public backing and thus, line value on the other side. Included in this streak is an amazing seven straight road wins and covers but this is the first time the Knicks have been favored over this stretch. Another reason I played against New York Wednesday was because of the revenge factor as Toronto was playing win a current season double revenge angle. The Wizards will be seeking some revenge as well as they were smoked in New York by 21 points at the beginning of November. That was the fourth straight win and cover for the Knicks in this series dating back to last season so the Wizards actually have a lot of payback to take care of. The Knicks have been making a killing of late against the books but the majority of this has come in the role of an underdog. They have not had the same success as favorites and they are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games as a favorite of fewer than five points including a 0-5 ATS mark as road favorites of the same parameters. Washington meanwhile has been just the opposite as it is 6-1 ATS as a home underdog of fewer than five points. The home team has covered seven of the last eight meetings. 3* Washington Wizards
Bryan Leonard
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: Portland Trail Blazers +5½
This is the third meeting between these clubs with the Blazers winning 106-92 and 106-99. They have done an outstanding job slowing down the Suns running game as Phoenix has been held to double digits just six times on the entire season. While Portland played last night at home against Orlando they have posted a 3-2 spread mark this year playing without rest.
Phoenix is off back to back losses to Portland and Memphis, the later coming in overtime. Although they were off last night it's still their third game in the last four days. They also played a three in four situation just a week ago against Golden State, Indiana and Washington. So this is a worn down Suns team facing a squad they just haven't matched up well against this year.
Phoenix has permitted 11 of 12 teams to reach triple digits and Portland will look to be physical and slow the pace. We'll gladly back the better defensive squad on a three game winning streak catching an inflated number.
SPORTS WAGERS
Orlando +1.32 over UTAH
Playing against these teams coming off a loss after a long winning streak appears to be a very strong angle. The Jazz had reeled off 10 in a row before the Heat showed up on Wednesday. Now the Jazz will have to somehow regain that energy that drove them to winning 10 straight and chances are they’ll need another couple of games to get it. Furthermore, the Magic come in here with three straight losses and that can’t be sitting well with them. Orlando should have a significant edge on the boards tonight. In fact, through 23 games, Utah is tied for 24th out of 30 teams in average rebounds (39.7) and 18th in opponents’ rebounds (42.2). The poor statistics were driven home Wednesday, when the Jazz were outrebounded 42-28 in a home loss to Miami and gave up 15 offensive rebounds to the Heat. That’s an area in which Dwight Howard thrives. The Jazz are a quality team to be sure, however, the Magic will be desperately hungry tonight and in a game that’s all about match-ups, this one favors the visitor. Play: Orlando +1.32 (Risking 2 units).
GOLDEN STATE +9 over Miami
The Heat are flying high and they’re playing like everyone expected them to before the season began. Not only are they winning, but they’re winning with relative ease and have now won six in a row and counting. This is a great team for sure, however, now that they’ve recaptured the interest of the whole sports world, you’re going to pay a premium when betting on them and that’s something that should be avoided. The Warriors are in a serious funk with one win in its last 11 games. However, don’t think they’re not dangerous because at home, with an always energized and packed house, the Warriors are very dangerous. They play a schoolyard style that is entertaining and fun to watch. There is no doubt the whole team and city will be completely jacked up for this event and there is also no doubt that we’re getting some extra points here due to the current status of both these teams. Buy low and sell high. Play: Golden State +9 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
SAN ANTONIO –4½ over Atlanta
The Hawks are getting a little too much credit after winning seven of its past eight games. During that stretch they have one notable win and that came against the Magic on a night when Orlando was having a horrible shooting night. The Hawks beat them by six when in fact, they probably should’ve beaten them by 20. The rest of the Hawks wins came against New Jersey twice, Memphis, the Raps, Knicks, 76ers and Wizards. They’re supposed to beat those teams but when they play one of the upper tier teams in this league it’s a whole different story. Against the last three quality opponents they faced and that includes the Magic along with the Celtics and Heat, Atlanta scored 80, 77 and 76 points respectively. They’re likely going to run into the same woes tonight against the outstanding defense of the Spurs. San Antonio has very few weaknesses and this just might be the best Spurs team since they were winning championships a few years ago. They’re extremely focused, well coached and they always beat the Hawks when the game is in San An and they usually beat them badly. This one should be no different. Play San Antonio –4½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
SPORTS WAGERS
New Jersey + 1.20 over OTTAWA
Both these teams are in serious trouble but one of them, the Devils, has grossly underachieved while the Sens are probably right where they should be, that is, four games under .500. After the Sens lost again last night, the pressure intensifies tonight against a team that is second last in the entire league with a paltry 18 points. Only the Islanders with 15 points have less. Back to the Sens for a sec. There is a ton of pressure on them to not only win but to score some goals. In fact, the Sens have scored a ridiculous 17 goals over its last 12 games. Now the rumors are running rampant with a coaching change and personnel change too. Also, the Sens will play its third game in four days and fifth game since last Friday while the Devils have been off for three days. That’s a huge advantage for the Devils and it sure doesn’t hurt that they’ve beaten the Sens nine of the last 10 times they’ve met. So, while the Sens need a win badly, so, too, do the Devils. New Jersey is in the perfect spot here to pull the upset. They’ll play on the road with a lot less pressure than the host. The Devils are a .500 team at worst and it’s only a matter of time before they start winning some games. There is just too much talent on this squad to keep losing at this pace and having Martin Brodeur back between the pipes should inspire them even more. Not that Brodeur is great anymore because clearly he’s not. However, his presence adds stability and confidence. A well-rested and underachieving Devils squad has zero excuses here. Nice overlay. Play: New Jersey +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
Triple Threat Sports
Iowa State at Iowa
Pick: Iowa
The short and sweet reasoning for this play is that the home team dominates this series, and in fact has won by double digits each of the last two and three of the last four years. Looking deeper, note that both of these teams are very young, and youth is served at home while struggling away. It not an accident that ISU is 0-2 ATS this season in their only two non Ames games. A (very) recent look at common opponents shows that ISU lost to Northern Iowa while Iowa beat the Panthers by 12, and while Iowa was at home for that one and ISU away, the difference is still telling. Another thing to note is that ISU lost at home to Cal, notable since we rate Cal and Iowa almost identical (#81 and #82) in our national Power Ratings. Finally, a look at the numbers shows ISU is 0-1/0-3/4-10 ATS as away dogs of this price range while Iowa is 3-1 ATS as small home chalk.
Wunderdog Sports
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Edmonton Oilers
Play: Tampa Bay Lightning
The Edmonton Oilers have played poor hockey all season, aside from a recent four game run. That is over and they come into this one vs Tampa Bay off a loss, where they have been 5-11 this season. This is a team that has allowed five or more goals in eight games already this season, making the wins few and far between. The Lightning are 4-3 in their last seven on foreign ice and have taken care of business with a high degree of regularity when they are a modest favorite. The Lightning stand at 13-3 in their last 16 posted as a favorite from -110 to -150 and, as a well rested team, they are 5-1 playing off two days rest. The Oilers are now just 22-55 in their last 77 overall and I'll go with Tampa Bay in this one.
Black Widow
1* on Portland Trail Blazers +5.5
Portland is simply catching too many points tonight against the Phoenix Suns. We'll take the value here as the Phoenix Suns are clearly overvalued, and they simply aren't the same team without Amare Stoudemire. This is a team clearly on the decline while the Blazers are on the rise. Portland has reeled off 3 straight dominant victories, including a 106-99 home win over Phoenix just three nights ago. Most teams don't do well in back-to-back situations, but that's not the case for the Blazers. Portland is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons. The Blazers beat the Magic 97-83 last night and will be fine playing on no rest here. Dating back even further, the Blazers are 39-18 ATS in their last 57 games playing on 0 days rest. Take Portland and the points.
Ross Benjamin
Fairfield @ Siena
Play: Over 132
The Stags would like to impose their slow paced half court style on Siena tonight. However on the Saints home court they will be hard pressed and highly unlikely to do so. Siena has scored 69 points or more in 6 of their 7 games this season. The only game they didn't attain that feat was against Butler. Although Faifield is a solid team in the MAAC they will never be mistaken for Butler in spite of their solid defensive numbers this season. Conversely Siena has also allowed 68 points or more in 6 of their 7 games.
Jack Jones
Indiana Pacers -6
The Pacers are arguably the most improved team in the league this season. Indiana is sitting at .500 this season and they already have wins over the Lakers and Heat on the road which is no small feat. The Charlotte Bobcats got worse in the offseason, and they are sitting at just 8-13 this year. Charlotte is having a terrible time scoring the basketball, putting up just 95.1 PPG this season. They are even worse on the road where they are 3-8 SU & 4-7 ATS this year, scoring only 91.1 PPG.
Indiana is scoring 104.7 PPG at home this season while allowing 96.6 PPG. The Pacers are a very profitable 12-3 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Bobcats are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Central division foes. The Pacers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. loss. The Bobcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Indiana is 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games playing on 1 days rest. Take the Pacers Friday.
Jack Jones
Indiana Pacers -6
The Pacers are arguably the most improved team in the league this season. Indiana is sitting at .500 this season and they already have wins over the Lakers and Heat on the road which is no small feat. The Charlotte Bobcats got worse in the offseason, and they are sitting at just 8-13 this year. Charlotte is having a terrible time scoring the basketball, putting up just 95.1 PPG this season. They are even worse on the road where they are 3-8 SU & 4-7 ATS this year, scoring only 91.1 PPG.
Indiana is scoring 104.7 PPG at home this season while allowing 96.6 PPG. The Pacers are a very profitable 12-3 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Bobcats are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Central division foes. The Pacers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. loss. The Bobcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Indiana is 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games playing on 1 days rest. Take the Pacers Friday.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Lakers/Bulls UNDER 197.5
LA has played to the Under in 9 of its last 11 and Chicago has played Under the total in 12 of its last 15. These are a couple of big market teams that get a lot of betting attention. As a result, the books try to take advantage of the Overs-loving public in these markets. The Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings between these teams and 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago. The Under is also a perfect 9-0 in the Bulls' last 9 games following a S.U. win. We'll play the percentages with a small play on the Under here.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Nuggets/Raptors OVER 217
The books are begging for action on the Under here, but we won't bite. Toronto is a very aggressive offensive team and that bodes well for us tonight. In fact, Denver is 9-1 Over in its last 10 when facing teams that attempt 27 or more free throws per game. We are seeing an average of 224.8 total points scored in these games. In addition, the Over is 6-0 in the Nuggets' last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet the Over in what should be an uptempo game with a lot of foul shots.