SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA
Dallas (15-7, 12-10 ATS) at Miami (11-9, 10-10 ATS)
The Mavericks will try to make it seven straight wins over the Heat when these two square off inside the American Airlines Arena in Miami.
Dallas hasn’t lost to the Heat since their NBA Finals matchup in 2006, winning six straight but going just 2-3-1 ATS. The Mavericks went to Miami and scored a 111-96 win last season, easily cashing as two-point road favorites. They have won three straight in Miami (2-1 ATS) and gone 4-1-1 ATS in their last six trips to South Beach. Furthermore, Dallas is 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings and the road team is on a 7-0-1 ATS run in this rivalry.
Dallas edged the Suns on Tuesday, winning 102-101 but coming up short as a 4½-point home chalk. The Mavs have dropped two of their last three games (0-3 ATS). They are only managing 96 points a game in their last five contests, more than five points behind their overall average of 101.7.
Miami wrapped up a 2-2 road trip (3-1 ATS) with Sunday’s 115-102 drubbing of Sacramento as a 1½-point chalk. Miami has had trouble scoring at home this season, where they are just 4-7 ATS, averaging just 94.1 points a game and shooting just 31.3 percent from beyond the three-point line.
The Mavericks are just 1-5 ATS in their last six overall and 0-4 ATS in their last four against Southeast Division teams, but they are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after getting two days off and 6-2 ATS in their last eight on the road. The Heat are on ATS slides of 4-9 overall, 0-6 at home, 2-7-1 against Southwest Division teams and 4-13 after getting three or more days off.
Dallas has stayed below the total in four straight against Southeast Division teams, but it is on “over” runs of 6-1 on the road, 4-1 on the road against teams with winning home records and 7-1 against Eastern Conference teams. Miami has topped the total in eight of 11 overall and five of six against Western Conference squads, but it is on “under” streaks of 10-4 at home, 16-5 after a straight-up win, 13-3 after a spread-cover and 11-3 against Southwest Division squads. Finally, the “under” has been the play in five of the last seven meetings between these two squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Portland (14-9, 11-12 ATS) at Cleveland (15-7, 11-11 ATS)
The Cavaliers are looking to snap a two-game losing streak when they welcome the Trail Blazers into Quicken Loans Arena.
Cleveland lost back-to-back games on the road Tuesday and Wednesday, falling in Memphis 111-109 in overtime as a 7½-point favorite on Tuesday and following it up with Wednesday’s 95-85 loss in Houston as a three-point chalk. The Cavs had won seven of eight overall and four straight before the brief road trip. They are on a six-game home winning streak.
Portland has alternated wins and losses over its last four games, including Wednesday’s 102-91 win in Indianapolis, cashing as a four-point road favorite. The victory snapped a six-game ATS losing streak for the Blazers, who had also dropped four of five SU.
The Cavaliers have won four straight (3-1 ATS) in this series and eight of the last 10 (7-3 ATS). They scored a 97-92 home win in overtime last season but came up short as a 10½-point favorite. Cleveland is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 series clashes, including 5-1 ATS in front of the home fans.
Portland is 5-1 ATS in its last six against Central Division teams and 8-2 ATS on Friday, but it is on pointspread slides of 1-6 overall, 1-4 on the road, 2-6 after a day off and 6-13 as a road ‘dog. The Cavaliers are on ATS runs of 19-7 on Fridays, 10-3 against Northwest Division foes, 36-17 after a straight-up loss and 8-1 against teams with winning records.
The Blazers are on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 12-5 on the road, 9-4 after a spread-cover, 4-1 on Fridays and 7-2 on the road against teams with winning home records. Cleveland has stayed below the total in four of five overall (all as a favorite), but it is on “over” runs of 4-1-1 after an ATS loss and 4-1 at home against teams with winning road records. In this series, the “under” is 4-2 in the last six matchups.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
Orlando (17-5, 13-9 ATS) at Phoenix (15-7, 12-10 ATS)
The Suns will try to remain perfect at home this season as they take on the Magic at the US Airways Center.
Phoenix opened the season with seven straight home wins (3-3-1 ATS) but they’ve dropped four of their last five overall, including two in a row. So far this week, the Suns got crushed at the Lakers on Sunday, losing 108-88 and coming up well short as a 9½-point underdog, then fell 102-101 in Dallas on Tuesday, though they snapped a four-game ATS losing streak as they cashed as a 4½-point ‘dog.
Orlando had its six-game overall (4-2 ATS) and eight-game (6-2 ATS) road winning streaks snapped in Utah on Thursday, losing 120-111 to the Jazz as a 2½-point road favorite. The Magic tighten up the defense on the road, limiting the opposition to 93.6 points a game.
Orlando has already crushed Phoenix once this season, scoring a 122-100 home win back on Nov. 4, cashing as a 7½-point favorite. The Magic have won and covered two straight over the Suns after losing the previous six meetings (4-2 ATS), and they have cashed in each of the last four played in the desert. Additionally, the visitor is riding a 6-2 ATS streak in this series with the ‘dog cashing in 13 of the last 18 meetings.
Despite Thursday’s setback in Utah, the Magic continue to sport several ATS hot streaks, including 7-4 overall, 14-5 against Pacific Division teams, 40-17-1 as an underdog, 5-1 on Friday and 35-16-2 as road ‘dogs. Phoenix is just 1-4 ATS in its last five overall, but it is on positive pointspread runs of 11-5 at home, 16-7-1 as a home chalk, 6-2 after two days off and 7-1-1 on Friday.
The “over” is 5-1 in Orlando’s last six overall and 4-1 in its last five when playing the second night of a back-to-back, but the team is also on several “under” streaks, including 10-5 on the road, 4-0 as an underdog and 10-5 against the Western Conference. The Suns have gone over the posted number in five of eight Friday games, but they are on “under” streaks of 9-1-2 overall, 4-0-1 against the Eastern Conference and 9-2 against the Southeast Division. Finally, in this series, the over is 9-3 in the last 12 clashes, with the last five in a row in Arizona topping the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO
Frank Jordan
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers -9
The Odenless Blazers did well in beating the Pacers last time out but those are the Pacers and now the head to Cleveland to take on LeBron and the Cavaliers. Cleveland on Tuesday and Wednesday lost back to back road games at Memphis and at Houston. As they return home where they are 8-2 they will look for some home cooking to lead them on to victory.
Marc Lawrence
Western Kentucky at Vanderbilt
Prediction: Vanderbilt
The Commodores return to Nashville to take on Western Kentucky at the Sommet Center in the opener of the Sun Belt Classic as they look to get back on the win track Friday night. Vandy enters tonight's fray off an 11-point loss to Illinois knowing they are 3-0 SU and ATS in this series. With the Hilltoppers in off back-to-back wins, but only 1-6 ATS this season, look for the Commies to win in impressive fashion this evening.
Jim Feist
Charlotte Bobcats vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: Under 187½
San Antonio's defense is getting better, on a 4-2 run under the total. They face a slow-down Charlotte team that is second in the NBA defensively allowing 90.6 ppg under coach Larry Brown. They took great price in beating Denver, a high octane offense: "I think our defense has always been good," Gerald Wallace said. They face Tiom Duncan and Gregg Popovich, a duo that takes great pride in defense, too. San Antonio is 3-1 under the total the last 4 games. Play the Bobcats/Spurs Under the total.
Bobby Maxwell
Houston -3 at PHILADELPHIA
I've gone 23-13 with my last 36 FREE selections and tonight I'm on the NBA hardwood for a comp play on Houston as the Rockets lay small chalk in Philadelphia.
The Sixers have dropped 11 straight games and the only thing adding Allen Iverson has done for them on the court is severely hurt their scoring average. I’m playing this Houston team tonight who has won four of their last five (SU and ATS) and who is getting good balanced scoring from everyone in the lineup.
Philadelphia is averaging more fans the last two games with Iverson on the roster, but the offense has managed to average just 84.5 points a game since he returned whereas the offense had scored 100 or more in five of the previous seven. The Sixers lost at home to the Nuggets by 10 as a 6 ½-point underdog and lost at home to the Pistons on Wednesday, falling 90-86 as a 4 ½-point favorite.
Meanwhile, this Rockets’ team showed some outstanding play on Wednesday, beating up the Cavaliers 95-85 in Houston as three-point underdogs. The guard play has been outstanding for Houston as Trevor Ariza had 26 points and Aaron Brooks put in 27 along with six assists.
Houston is 7-2 ATS in the last nine series clashes and the road team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13. I’m going with the Rockets in this one to keep the Sixers struggles continuing.
3♦ HOUSTON
Jeff Benton
Golden State +4 at CHICAGO
Hope you took advantage of Thursday’s easy freebie winner on the Browns-Steelers UNDER the total – I sure nailed that one! For Friday’s free play in the NBA, I’ll take the Warriors plus the points at Chicago.
I could use simple logic to defend this selection – that being that the Bulls lost at home to the Nets on Tuesday, then the Nets went home Thursday and lost to the Warriors, therefore it stands to reason that Golden State should win here. Or I could just point out the fact that Chicago stinks and has no business being favored over any team in the league right now.
The Bulls have lost four in a row and nine of their last 10 games, going 1-8-1 ATS along the way. Chicago can’t score (it has been held to 93 points or less seven times during this 10-game stretch, and has scored in triple figures just twice all year, both times tallying exactly 101 points), and the Bulls can’t stop opponents from scoring (101 points or more allowed in eight of their last 10 games after holding nine of their first 10 opponents under triple digits). During their current 1-9 slump, the Bulls have been drubbed by double digits seven times, losing by margins of 15, 19, 24, 19, 14, 32 and – most recently at Atlanta on Wednesday – 35 points.
Granted, the Warriors don’t play much defense themselves – prior to Wednesday’s 105-89 win at New Jersey, Golden State had given up an average of 116.8 in its previous eight contests. But Chicago doesn’t have the offensive capability to take advantage of the Warriors’ defensive ineptness. At the same time, the way the Bulls are playing defense right now, there’s no WAY they’re slowing down Golden State, which averages 108.6 ppg – or 18 ppg more than Chicago!
The Warriors have cashed in 10 of their last 14 overall, 18 of 26 against the Eastern Conference, four of five against the Central Division and five of six as an underdog of 5 points or less. Meanwhile, in addition to its ongoing 1-8-1 ATS slump, Chicago is in pointspread slides of 5-16-1 overall, 1-9-2 as a favorite, 0-9-2 as a home chalk, 2-12-2 after a straight-up loss and 0-5-1 against opponents with a losing record.
4♦ GOLDEN STATE
Dominic Fazzini
Charlotte at SAN ANTONIO -8
Bad call Thursday night on Colorado, plain and simple. I thought the Buffaloes were going to end their road losing streak, but they weren't up to the task. Even with that loss, however, I'm 21-11 over the last 32 days, and I'll rebound today with a win behind the Spurs.
San Antonio has been a bit inconsistent this season, but it still plays solid defense, which will always give the team a chance to win. And Charlotte has shown a tendency to go long stretches without scoring many points this season.
And the Spurs have something to feel optimistic about after Wednesday's 118-106 victory over Sacramento. In that game, both Richard Jefferson and Manu Ginobili, who had been struggling, broke out with big games, scoring 23 and 20 points, respectively. If those two can keep things going, that will make life a lot easier for Tim Duncan and Tony Parker, who are combining for 36.7 ppg this season.
The Bobcats are just 1-8 SU on the road this season, and haven't fared well against San Antonio, going 1-9 SU all time against the Spurs. Charlotte also is 1-4 ATS in its last five games against the Spurs, and 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in San Antonio. The favorite is also 4-1 in the last five meetings between the teams. Take the Spurs to win by double digits tonight.
4♦ SAN ANTONIO
DUNKEL INDEX
Oklahoma City at Memphis
The Thunder look to build on their 9-4 ATS record in their last 13 games as an underdog between 1 and 4 1/2 points. Oklahoma City is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+2)
Game 701-702: New Jersey at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 108.803; Indiana 115.563
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 7; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 3 1/2; 199 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-3 1/2); Under
Game 703-704: Houston at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 118.342; Philadelphia 117.215
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 1; 187
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 3; 194
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3); Under
Game 705-706: Atlanta at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 121.826; Toronto 116.121
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 5 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 707-708: Dallas at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 117.564; Miami 118.910
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 1 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 709-710: New York at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: New York 117.159; New Orleans 119.778
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 2 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 7; 209
Dunkel Pick: New York (+7); Under
Game 711-712: Golden State at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 112.928; Chicago 112.892
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 4; 213 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+4); Under
Game 713-714: Portland at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 115.653; Cleveland 126.868
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 11; 175
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 9; 184
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-9); Under
Game 715-716: Oklahoma City at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 119.476; Memphis 116.622
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 3; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 2; 200
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+2); Over
Game 717-718: Charlotte at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 115.259; San Antonio 124.897
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 9 1/2; 193
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 7 1/2; 187
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-7 1/2); Over
Game 719-720: Minnesota at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 111.301; LA Lakers 126.158
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 15; 205
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 16; 200 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+16); Over
Game 721-722: Orlando at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 124.425; Phoenix 122.595
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 2; 219
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 2 1/2; 215 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (+2 1/2); Over
NCAAB
Idaho State at USC
The Trojans look to take advantage of an Idaho State team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games as a road underdog between 7 and 12 1/2 points. USC is the pick (-11) according to Dunkel, which has the Trojans favored by 17 1/2. Dunkel Pick: USC (-11)
Game 723-724: Old Dominion at Dayton
Dunkel Ratings: Old Dominion 63.469; Dayton 66.780
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Dayton by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Old Dominion (+5 1/2)
Game 725-726: Middle Tennessee St. vs. Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee St. 49.059; Tennessee 73.149
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 24
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 20 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-20 1/2)
Game 727-728: Iowa at Iowa State
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 53.541; Iowa State 69.847
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (-12 1/2)
Game 729-730: Western Kentucky at Vanderbilt
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 59.857; Vanderbilt 66.954
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 7
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (+11 1/2)
Game 731-732: Idaho State at USC
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho State 46.429; USC 64.116
Dunkel Line: USC by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: USC by 11
Dunkel Pick: USC (-11)
NHL
Chicago at Buffalo
The Sabres look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is 3-7-1 in the last 11 meetings. Buffalo is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Sabres favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+115)
Game 51-52: Florida at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 10.175; New Jersey 12.101
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-210); 5
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-210); Under
Game 53-54: Carolina at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.265; Washington 12.778
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-230); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-230); Over
Game 55-56: Chicago at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.581; Buffalo 11.893
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+115); Over
Game 57-58: Anaheim at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 10.985; Detroit 10.862
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+165); Under
Game 59-60: Edmonton at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.826; St. Louis 12.147
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-140); Under
Game 61-62: Minnesota at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 12.191; Calgary 12.319
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-180); 5
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-180); Under
Game 63-64: Tampa Bay at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 12.190; Colorado 12.006
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 65-66: Dallas at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 10.905; San Jose 11.790
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-180); Over
Tom Freese
Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks
Prediction: Under
Dallas is 11-5 UNDER their last 16 games and they are 5-1 UNDER their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Stars are 10-3 UNDER their last 13 games vs. Western Conference teams and they are 5-2 UNDER their last 7 road games. San Jose is 19-7-4 UNDER their last 30 games after allowing 5 goals or more in their last game and they are 26-10-5 UNDER vs. Pacific Division teams. The Sharks are 8-2-1 UNDER their last 11 meetings with the Stars including going 3-1-1 UNDER their last 5 games in San Jose. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
364 - 257 run 59 %
Free Play Fri USC -11
8)
SPORTS WAGERS
Florida +2.06 over NEW JERSEY
The Panthers are reeling with just one win in its last 10 games but they’re coming off a strong performance in Columbus in which they deserved a better fate. They’ve performed well on the road all year and they could definitely catch the complacent Devils a little flat here. New Jersey is on a roll with four wins in a row and seven wins in eight games. What makes the Panthers so appealing here, besides the tag, is that the Devils will host the Flyers tomorrow night and these Friday night games have a huge history of upsets. This could be another one. Play: Florida +2.06 (Risking 2 units).
Edmonton +1.38 over ST. LOUIS
One has to figure the Oilers to be completely jacked up here. Edmonton will conclude its five-game road trip with a chance to make it a sweep and that gives alone gives them huge incentive for this one. The Oilers will return home after this game and will be off until Tuesday so all focus will be on this game. The Oilers are heating up and again, with a chance for a sweep they may very well play its best game of the trip. The Blue Notes are hit and miss. You can get a great game from them one night and a complete reversal the next. They’re coming off a 1-0 win over Detroit but were badly outplayed. The Blues are allowing the opposition way too many good scoring chances and right now these Oiler snipers are feeling it. Play: St. Louis +1.38 (Risking 2 units).
Golden State +1.72 over CHICAGO
Once again the Bulls offer up no value whatsoever as the chalk. This is a team that really cannot keep pace with the Warriors or anyone else for that matter. They keep getting blown out and no matter how hard they try there’s nothing they can do about it. They have no go-to-guy, they have no inside presence and basically they’re forced to take a ton of low percentage shots. The Warriors get very little respect but this is dangerous team with a slew of good shooters. Despite winning its last game in New Jersey, Anthony Morrow had a bad game in terms of points but there’s little chance of this guy being off two nights in a row. He’s one of the best pure shooters you’ll ever see. Anyway, until the Bulls show us something different, playing against them comes highly recommended. Warriors always come to play and they’re just so much better than this dumpster-fire of a host. Play: Golden State +1.72 (Risking 2 units).
PHOENIX –3 over Orlando
The Suns are very simply a much different team at home than they are on the road. They’re 7-0 at home and just 8-7 on the road. Furthermore, they usually win big at home and in fact, all of its home wins have been by more than the points offered here and most of them have been by double-digits. The Suns are also coming off of a couple of tough game in both Dallas and Lakers and have been off since Tuesday. The Magic are a tough team to be sure, however, they’ll play back-to-back here and its third game in four nights in three different time zones. It might also be worth mentioning that in last night’s loss in Utah, Magic coach Stan Van Gundy approached Rashard Lewis to re-enter the game in the second quarter but Lewis refused to get off the bench. That’s a sign of trouble my friends and when these prima donnas start it could last a long time and it can wreak havoc. Anyway, the situation heavily favors the Suns and with its solid home performances, they’re certainly worth a look tonight. Play: Phoenix –3 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
John Ryan
Western Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Western Kentucky +11.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Western Kentucky as they take on Vanderbilt set to start at 9:30 EST as part of the Sun Belt Classic Tournament. AiS shows a 72% probability that WK will lose this game by 11 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 86-120 for just 42% winners, but has made a remarkable 31.6 units since 1997. Play on neutral court dogs versus the money line off 2 or more consecutive home wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. The average play has been a +176 dog. So, by analogy, imagine playing Black Jack at the casino tonight and things are not going all your way winning 42% of the hands played. Yet, is is your night as the dealer is paying you $1.76 for every winning $1.00 hand played and despite winning just 42% of your hands played you walk out a winner with $31.60 in profits. This is the power of playing dogs that have a solid probability of winning the game in addition to winning ATS. The combination of my fundamental research focused on specific matchups, the technical side that features up to 27-year proven money making systems and solid game dependent angles, and most importantly the gradings provided by the Ai Simulator is why you can trust getting all of my plays in all sports each and every day. Join me tonight and get the information you need to win. Take Western Kentucky.
LT Profits
USC vs Idaho State
The Idaho State Bengals may be nothing special, but the USC Trojans are but a mere shell of their fine teams of recent years, especially offensively, and we do not feel they merit being double-digit favorites over anyone right now.
This line seems based more on reputation than on current performance, as USC has a losing record of 3-4 (1-4-1 against the spread), mainly due to what has been a very disappointing offense. The Trojans are averaging 58.9 points per game on 42.6 percent shooting overall. Furthermore, those figures drop to 55.2 points and 40.6 percent over the last five games, and they managed only 51 points on 18-of-43 shooting vs. a weak Sacramento State team Tuesday.
Also, looking at the adjusted Pomeroy Ratings, USC is averaging just 0.944 points per possession, ranking them a measly 256 out of 347 Division I teams. Furthermore, they have done a terrible job for protecting the ball with a high 25.4 percent turnover rate, ranking 321 in the nation!
Now, the Bengals are just 2-7 with both wins coming in non-lined games vs. non board teams, and yet, they still rank well ahead of USC in PPP at 1.007, even after adjusting for schedule. Besides, Idaho State lost by 10 points to Notre Dame, 12 points to Utah and just five points to Bradley, and we feel that USC is inferior to all of those teams right now.
In short, while USC is still probably the better team here, they do not look to be double-digits better, making Idaho State the logical choice at this line.
Pick: Idaho State +11.5
Dave Price
1 Unit on 76ers +3
Look for Philly to end its 11-game losing streak tonight against a team it has owned. The 76ers are a perfect 4-0 SU & ATS versus the Rockets over the last 2 seasons. They have been an underdog of 5.6 points on average in these games and have won them outright by an average of 6 points. I expect Philly's dominance over the Rockets to continue as it catches them in a letdown spot after a big win over Cleveland. The 76ers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and the Underdog is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings in this matchup. We'll take the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Golden State Warriors +5
I'll take the points with the Warriors as the Bulls are really struggling right now. Chicago is only scoring 90.6 ppg and has allowed 101 or more points in each of its last 4 games. In fact, it just allowed the New Jersey Nets, who are one of the worst offensive teams in the league, to score 103 points against them at home in a loss. Golden State just held that same Nets team to 89 points on the road in an easy win. Chicago has lost 9 of 10 SU and is 1-8-1 ATS in those games. The Warriors are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The Bulls are 0-9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. Can't see the struggling Bulls winning this one by more than 5 points. Bet the Warriors for 1 Unit.