Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, December 12

DUNKEL INDEX

NHL

Los Angeles at Montreal
The Kings head to Montreal tonight to face a Canadiens team that is coming off a 3-1 win over Vancouver and is 1-4 in its last 5 games after allowing 2 goals or less in the previous game. Los Angeles is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Kings favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+130).

Game 51-52: Calgary at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 10.948; Pittsburgh 12.632
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-200); Under

Game 53-54: Los Angeles at Montreal (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 12.482; Montreal 11.024
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+110); Over

Game 55-56: Florida at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 10.191; Detroit 12.563
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-200); 5
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-200); Over

Game 57-58: Anaheim at Edmonton (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 10.487; Edmonton 11.331
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+150); Under

Raphael Esparza

Smith / Lara Over 9.5 Rounds

First of all, I'm shocked that they did a round prop for this fight, and this fight has going the distance written all over it. Erislandy Lara is the heavy favorite in this fight, and he is the better fighter, but Mr. Smith has heart, and I see this fight easily going over 9.5 rounds. In Ishe Smith’s last 4 fights, 3 of them have gone the distance, and that one fight that didn't Ishe KO'd Ryan Davis in the 2nd round. No shot in hell will Ishe KO Lara in this fight, and again Lara will carry this fight to the distance. Lara doesn't have the KO power, and I see a slug fest early and both fighters will run out of gas, so again this fight will go the distance and Erislandy Lara wins this fight by decision.

Allen Eastman

Los Angeles at San Antonio
Play: San Antonio

This is one of the worst Lakers teams that I’ve seen in the last 20 years. The Spurs are not going to go easy on this Lakers team while they work out their issues. These two teams are long-time rivals and are not even close this year. The Spurs have won eight of their last 10 games, and they are one of the best home teams in the league. The Spurs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a winning percentage below .400. They dominate weaker teams like the Lakers. Los Angeles is on a 0-4 ATS slide, and they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Spurs should win this one going away.

Scott Spreitzer

Toronto Raptors -9

DeMar DeRozan is still out and it looks like he's going to be for a while. But the Raptors, off a loss to the Cavaliers, get "just what the doctor ordered" on Friday night, a date with the struggling Indiana Pacers. The Pacers have dropped six straight and they rank 28th in ppg and FG percentage. The Raptors are not only on a 4-0 ATS run against the Pacers, including 19-7 ATS in their last 26 meetings at home, but they bounce back well off a loss in general. The Raptors will enter Friday on an 18-4 ATS run off a SU defeat. Indiana will also have to deal with a Toronto team that can still fill the basket even without DeRozan, especially against lessor competition. It's a strong spot for the Raptors and we'll recommend a play on Toronto minus the points.

Stephen Nover

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Play: Minnesota Timberwolves +8½

The spot certainly is right for Minnesota. The Timberwolves catch the Thunder traveling without rest after posing a huge 103-94 nationally televised home win against the Cavaliers.

Kevin Durant has been limited to 30 minutes a game since returning from a broken foot. He may play even less minutes in this game since it's a back-to-back situation for Oklahoma City.

The Thunder do not have a good track record versus bad teams going 1-7-1 ATS the past nine times on the road when facing a foe with a losing home mark.

The key question is are the decimated Timberwolves still good enough to keep this game close enough to cover? The Timberwolves are relying on a lot of youth because of Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Martin all being out. Veteran point guard Mo Williams isn't likely to play either.

But the Timberwolves didn't have any of these players when they held the Trail Blazers to a season-low 38.8 percent shooting in a 90-82 home win this past Wednesday. So the Timberwolves are capable of winning outright by nearly double-digits against an elite opponent if that opponent comes in flat.

Up-and-down rookie Andrew Wiggins has been hot lately shooting 17-of-35 from the field during his last two games.

The Timberwolves have enjoyed good point spread success versus Oklahoma City, too, covering nine of the past 13 times.

Stephen Nover's Featured Package

Jim Feist

Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets
Pick: Philadelphia 76ers

Philadelphia is showing plenty of life (and improvement), on a 5-1 spread run. That included a pair of wins as a big dog each time over Detroit and Minnesota. The 76ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and face a struggling Brooklyn team that is 22nd in scoring, 17th in points allowed. They looked lifeless the last game, a 105-80 loss at Chicago. The Nets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games, 2-6 ATS when playing on 1 days rest. Brooklyn is on an 0-3 SU/ATS run getting smoked by 25, 22 and 13 points! The 76ers are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 vs. the Eastern Conference as well as 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Brooklyn, so grab the visitors.

Ben Burns

Oklahoma City vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota

I successfully backed the T-Wolves in their last game. Getting double-digits against Portland, they won outright.

In this week's "Spot Bets" column, I mentioned that OKC would potentially be in a tough "spot" tonight.

While Lebron didn't end up playing last night, OKC was still challenged & could easily still be ripe for a letdown.

As mentioned, the T-Wolves stopped the bleeding w/ Wednesday's big win, providing positive momentum.

The T-Wolves are 12-7 ATS their last 19 in the series, 3-2 ATS the last five. None of those five games resulted in an OKC win of greater than 10.

Consider grabbing the generous points.

Ben Burns's Featured Package

LT Profits

Portland vs Chicago
Pick: Over 199.5

The Chicago Bulls have changed their personality this season and thus we may see a relatively high scoring game vs. the Portland Trail Blazers. You see, Tom Thibodeau had put his defensive stamp on the Bulls since becoming their head coach, and they led the NBA in fewest points allowed last season. However, they were also dead last in points scored, and with the Bulls usually suffering early exits in the playoffs, “Tibbs” has allowed some more freedom offensively this year and Chicago is up to 10th in the NBA in scoring at 102.7 points per game and also 10th in Pace Rating with 96.3 possessions, which would have been unheard of in recent seasons. The Blazers are averaging 102.2 points and they should be breathing fire coming off of an ugly 90-82 upset loss to the lowly Timberwolves. The ‘over’ is 10-4-1 the last 15 meetings.

SPORTS WAGERS

Los Angeles +117 over MONTREAL

OT included. We don’t often make dumb bets but our wager against the Canadiens in their last game was truthfully the worst wager we’ve made in five years. Give the Canadiens organization and players all the credit in the world for its dynamic tribute to one of the game’s greatest players who meant as much to the city and people of Montreal as Bobby Orr does to Boston, Gordie Howe to Detroit or Wayne Gretzky does to Edmonton. These rare talents provided joy, excitement and togetherness for their respective cities for years or decades. This was anticipated to be a tear-inducing ceremony and it did not disappoint, beginning with photos of Mr. Beliveau projected on the ice and ending with the spotlight on Mrs. Beliveau, who broke down to the crowd’s rapturous applause for her late husband. For fans at the Bell Center or at home, it was a moment never to be forgotten. Players from both teams tapped their sticks on the ice or applauded. The fans on their feet cheered for longer and more loudly than they would for a Stanley Cup victory and one couldn’t help but feel the hearts within that arena. The Canadiens went out and played their best game of the year by far. They dominated the Canucks and the 3-1 final was flattering to Vancouver. It may as well have been 5-1 because the Canadiens were not going to be denied on this night. It was storybook stuff and once again showed the world what hockey means to Montreal and why it is such a historic and classy organization. This is the hangover night.

In terms of emotion, playing tonight for the Habs will be like playing an exhibition game after winning the Stanley Cup. There is no possible way that the Canadiens can match the emotional level they brought against Vancouver. It wasn’t just one night of emotion either. There was the death of Beliveau in which the arena had been turned into a giant funeral home for two days. Then there was tribute and game for Beliveau and finally the funeral of Beliveau that every player on that Canadiens roster was a part of. This wasn’t just the death of a hockey player; it was the death of a family member. Let us remind you that Montreal had lost six of seven prior to defeating the Canucks and also returned home from a four-game trip and seven road games in their previous eight. Not only is there the emotional toll of the past few days weighing heavily on the Habs but there is a physical toll one must pay for so much travel as well.

The Kings will play their third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs but we couldn’t care less because this team knows a thing or two about grueling schedules in a short time, as their two Cup wins in the past three years will attest to. This Kings have nothing to prove but a rare game in Montreal (they’ve played here once since 2010) figures to get them jacked right up. Let us also remind you that this is the exact same team that won the Cup last year. After a Cup win there is usually some significant turnover in personnel but not for the Kings. Replace Willie Mitchell with Brayden McNabb and the Kings have the exact same team as the one that won the Cup just a few months ago. The Kings have won three of their past five with only losses over that span occurring against Buffalo and Philadelphia, where they allowed just three goals against combined and outshot that pair by a remarkable 72-32 count. The Kings are at the top of their game again with three shutouts over their past seven games and allowing just six goals against in their last five contests. That foolish wager we made against the Canadiens on Tuesday likely gets paid back here with a little interest.

Jesse Schule

Miami Heat at Utah Jazz
Pick: Utah Jazz

Utah put an end to a nine game losing streak by upsetting the defending champion San Antonio Spurs at home on Tuesday, and I like their chances of riding that momentum and picking up another win at home Friday as they host Miami. The Heat are at the end of a grueling road trip that has seen them drop five of their last six. They completely ran out of gas in the second half of their last game, losing to Denver by a score of 102-82. Dwyane Wade admitting after the game that his team found itself in a tough spot: "This is the worst back-to-back in the league," Wade said. "You come in to see what you can do. You try to come out and compete. We did that for a half and then it got away from us in the third quarter. It was one of those games." Fatigue should continue to be an issue for Miami just 48 hours later, and this could be a throwaway game before returning home for a stretch that sees them play 8-of-9 in Miami. Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter, Trey Burke and Alec Burks combined for 75 points in the win over the Spurs, and that kind of production from their starters should lead to more wins moving forward for this young team. The Heat have covered the spread just once in their last five trips to Utah, and this doesn't look like a good spot for the visitors.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Steve Janus

Timberwolves/Thunder Over 205½

I think we are seeing some exceptional value here on the total. Minnesota allowed just 82-points in a surprising 90-82 win at home over the Trail Blazers last time out. The key there is they caught Portland in a great spot. The Trail Blazers were in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set and were playing their 3rd road game in 4 days. While the Thunder are playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back, they are fairly rested and simply can't take any nights off right now, as they currently sit in 11th place in the West. Minnesota is on pace to give up 108.8 ppg and I look for their defense to struggle against Oklahoma City, who has scored 100+ in 5 of their last 6. The other key here is the Thunder are not as strong defensively on the road and will be lacking intensity on the defensive side of the ball after last night's big game against the Cavaliers.

System - OVER is 44-16 (73%) in games with a total of 200 or more points, where you have two teams who are shooting just 41.5% to 43.5% from the floor on the season.

Jimmy Boyd

Minnesota Timberwolves +8½

Minnesota snapped their 6-game losing streak with an impressive 90-82 home win over the Trail Blazers as a 10-point underdog on Wednesday and are once again showing great value against a team that comes into the Target Center in a tough spot.

Oklahoma City has got things headed in the right direction with the return of Durant and Westbrook, but I look for them to suffer a letdown here after last night's big win over the Cavaliers at home on TNT. You also have to factor in that the Thunder could limit both of their stars minutes in the second game of a back-to-back.

Oklahoma City has also not been nearly as impressive on the road, where they are just 3-8 SU and 2-10 ATS. I just don't see the Thunder coming out with the intensity needed to come away with a blowout win on the road against a motivated Timberwolves squad.

The Thunder are just 19-31 ATS in their last 50 games when they come in having covered 2 out of their last 3 and just 9-19 ATS in their last 28 road games against up-tempo teams who average 83 or more shots/game.

We also find a great system in play backing the Timberwolves. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a game involving two poor shooting teams (41.5% to 43.5%) and two average rebounding teams (+/3 3 rebounds/game) are 27-7 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 79% system in favor of the Timberwolves.

Trev Rogers

Iowa State vs. Iowa
Play: Iowa -6½

Iowa has come out of the gates strong with an 8-2 mark that includes a win at UNC. Iowa has great depth and experience with 12 players averaging 13 or more minutes per game.

Iowa State is ranked 14th in country, but will be without the services of Bryce Desean-Jones tonight. Bryce is a senior guard who averages over 17 points per game. The ISU players claim they can come together for a win tonight similar to what they pulled off last season in the NCAA Tourney when they eliminated UNC without Georges Niang..... I just do not see that happening.

Iowa comes in with revenge after a 85-82 loss last season to ISU and I believe they are catching ISU at just the right time. Vegas looks to agree as the line has jumped from -5 to -6.5.

Jimmy Adams

Portland Trailblazers vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Portland Trailblazers +2½

The Portland Trail Blazers have been dominant on the road all season, posting a 7-3 mark on the highway. This is a very good spot for Portland, as they’ll be looking to bounce back from an ugly loss to the Timberwolves in their last game. A big key for pulling the trigger in this game is the fact that the Blazers are #1 in the league in rebounding. They have a huge frontcourt which is essential in stopping the gritty Bulls, who pride themselves on defense. The Blazers also have a good defense as well, fully capable of matching the intensity that Chicago brings on that side of the ball.

Joakim Noah is expected to miss this contest with hurt ankles, which will have a huge impact on the Bulls inside. They’re also not protecting their home court very well, with a losing home record so far. Derrick Rose will play tonight, but the Blazers have a nice point guard of their own in Damian Lillard.

Portland just has too much scoring power and size inside not to get the victory here. Getting points is just icing on the cake.