Wunderdog
New York vs. Boston
Pick: New York +6.5
Boston is a good sized favorite, but why? The Celtics have a losing record at home with a bad defense at #28 in points allowed. The Celtics are 3-7-1 ATS at home against a team with a losing road record. New York likes the three-pointer and Boston is second worst in the NBA at defending the three-pointer, allowing 39% shooting. Boston returns home from losses at Washington on Monday and Wednesday in Charlotte. This is a rivalry series and home court has meant little, as the road team is 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings. The Knicks are also 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Boston. Take the points on the Knicks.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Chicago / Portland Under 199: Just don't get this line. I know that Chicago's games have been high scoring of late, but still they have played some bad defensive teams of late and will not be playing a bad one tonight as the Trailblazers have allowed just 95.3 ppg overall, including just 89.3 ppg in their last 4 games, plus they held the Bulls to just 87 points in an earlier meeting this year. The Portland offense has also scored just 92.8 ppg during those last 4 games and while the Bulls have struggled on defense at times this year, they are still a good defensive team and should keep the Blazers in 100 in this one. I really don't expect 100 points from either team in what should be a game that is played in the lower 190s.
MINNESOTA +9 over Oklahoma City: Gotta feel this is a bad spot for the Thunder, who are off an emotional nationally televised game vs Cleveland last night. Even though the Thunder need to keep winning, I just don't see how they can get up for the lowly TWolves in this one, especially with a game vs Phoenix on deck. The thunder are just 2-8 ATS on the road this year and I can see Minnesota making enough baskets to keep this one close.
Rocketman
Philadelphia @ Brooklyn
Play: Philadelphia +7.5
The Philadelphia 76ers travel to Brooklyn to take on the Nets on Friday night. Philadelphia is 2-19 SU on the season while Brooklyn is 8-12 SU overall this year. Brooklyn will be without 29.275 points per game here tonight according to the Rocketman Injury Report numbers. Brooke Lopez is out tonight for the Nets. Brooklyn is 11-24 ATS last 3 years when playing in December. Brooklyn is allowing 100.2 points per game overall this year. The 76ers two wins have both come on the road and both been in their past 4 games. Philadelphia is 13-3 ATS last 16 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Philadelphia is 18-8 ATS last 26 games against the Eastern Conference. Brooklyn is 1-6 ATS last 7 home games. Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS last 8 meetings in Brooklyn. We'll recommend a small play on Philadelphia tonight!
Sam Martin
Iowa State at Iowa
Play: Iowa State
We would have backed Iowa State in this in-state rivalry matchup against the Iowa Hawkeyes as a premium selection, but we have to downgrade this play to a 5* rating with the Cyclones missing Bryce Dejean-Jones with a one-game suspension due to legal issues. Dejean-Jones not only scored 17 ppg but also leads Iowa State in rebounding.
Even with that big loss, we still fee Iowa State is the better team, and we expect this game to come down to the wire with the Cyclones still have a chance to win outright. Iowa State looked very good when they beat Arkansas by 18 points last week while Iowa is overvalued thanks to their high-profile win against an overrated UNC team recently. Don't trust Iowa's offense and Cylcones hang tough in a low-scoring, tight game!
Dave Price
Iowa -5½
Iowa has the edge at home tonight. This is Iowa State's first true road game of the season, and it comes in a hostile environment against an Iowa squad that will be seeking revenge. To make matters worse, the Cyclones will be without second-leading scorer Bryce Dejean-Jones, who has been suspended for the game. Iowa led by double digits late in the game in Ames, IA last season but gave the game away with poor free throw shooting down the stretch. The harsh memory of that collapse will have Iowa highly motivated. Home court has meant a lot in this series as the home team is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings with nine of the wins coming by seven points or more. Iowa is an impressive 41-24 ATS in lined home games under coach McCaffery, including 20-9 ATS in non-conference action.
Jack Jones
Hornets/Grizzlies Under 191.5
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Charlotte Hornets and Memphis Grizzlies. These are two teams that pride themselves on defense, and I believe that defense will shine through in this game Friday.
Perhaps the biggest reason I'm taking the UNDER in this game is that both teams play at very slow paces. Memphis ranks 27th in the league in pace at 94.1 possessions per game, while Charlotte ranks 26th at 94.4 possessions per game. Fewer possessions equal fewer points.
What really stood out to me when looking into this game was the head-to-head history between these teams. They Hornets and Grizzlies have combined for 181 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings. They have combined for 140, 200, 181, 169, 181, 165 and 178 points in their last seven meetings, respectively.
That's an average of 173.4 combined points per game in those seven games, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 191.5. The Grizzlies beat the Hornets 71-69 in their first meeting this season for 140 combined points. While I don't expect this game to be that low-scoring, I certainly expect it to finish under this total with ease.
Memphis is 28-14 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons. The Grizzlies are 12-3 to the UNDER after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last two years. The UNDER is 9-4 in Hornets last 13 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 5-1 in Grizzlies last six vs. Eastern Conference foes. Memphis is 5-1-1 to the UNDER after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.
Jimmy Boyd
Minnesota Timberwolves +8½
Minnesota snapped their 6-game losing streak with an impressive 90-82 home win over the Trail Blazers as a 10-point underdog on Wednesday and are once again showing great value against a team that comes into the Target Center in a tough spot.
Oklahoma City has got things headed in the right direction with the return of Durant and Westbrook, but I look for them to suffer a letdown here after last night's big win over the Cavaliers at home on TNT. You also have to factor in that the Thunder could limit both of their stars minutes in the second game of a back-to-back.
Oklahoma City has also not been nearly as impressive on the road, where they are just 3-8 SU and 2-10 ATS. I just don't see the Thunder coming out with the intensity needed to come away with a blowout win on the road against a motivated Timberwolves squad.
The Thunder are just 19-31 ATS in their last 50 games when they come in having covered 2 out of their last 3 and just 9-19 ATS in their last 28 road games against up-tempo teams who average 83 or more shots/game.
We also find a great system in play backing the Timberwolves. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a game involving two poor shooting teams (41.5% to 43.5%) and two average rebounding teams (+/3 3 rebounds/game) are 27-7 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 79% system in favor of the Timberwolves.
Triple Threat Sports
FLORIDA (-) over Texas Southern.
We used Florida earlier this week against Yale and the Gators rolled. We expect them to do the same here as they feast on some lesser lights after dropping games to Miami, Georgetown, UNC, and Kansas. Not usually in love with laying such a big number, but our projection is for a 29 point win, so lay the lumber!
OC Dooley
Tenn Chattanooga +4.5
It was exactly a year ago in an ESPN2 Friday night national telecast from the Division I-AA quarterfinal round when the country saw enormous underdog Towson State (+17) travel to Eastern Illinois pulling off a stunning OUTRIGHT upset and one year late I am “taking” the points. One cannot underestimate the significance of tonight’s game for visiting Tennessee-Chattanooga who is making their first appearance in the playoffs in exactly THIRTY YEARS and they just happen to operate with a “spread” offense led by a dual-threat quarterback similar to that of New Hampshire which sets us up for a competitive contest. While the New Hampshire defense has not allowed an opponent to score more than 27 points against them all season they have NOT faced a team like Chattanooga that has such exceptional athletic ability. Chattanooga (Southern Conference Champion) has won SEVEN games in a row and last weekend the offense controlled the football for 43 minutes while on the other side of the field their defense surrendered just 178 total yards. I will admit that New Hampshire has appeared in the Divison I-AA playoff quarterfinals 8 times in the past 11 campaigs but it was not until a year ago when they finally garnered a straight-up triumph. My research indicates that the only time New Hampshire hosted a Quarterfinal game as a #1 seed was way back in 2005 when they lost outright on the scoreboard so I will glady “take” the points in tonight’s ESPN2 national telecast
Harry Bondi
LA Clippers (-2.5) over Washington
Washington will have it’s hands full tonight taking on the NBA’s hottest team. Wizards needed double overtime to beat the Celtics and won at the buzzer in Orlando in its last outing but take a big step up tonight to take on the Clippers, winners of 9 straight! Los Angeles is averaging 114 points during the winning streak and leads the league in field-goal percentage at 48.4% and is second in 3 point percentage at 38.1.Clippers always play well in DC having covered 4 of the last 5 and get their 10 straight win tonight!