Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, December 13

Jim Feist

Timberwolves vs Spurs
Play: Under 205½

San Antonio is on a nice run over the total the last two weeks and into town comes run and gun Minnesota, 3rd in the NBA in points scored, 7th in assists, 21st in points allowed. San Antonio is 11th in the NBA in points scored, tops in assists. After falling 111-100 to NBA-leading Indiana on Saturday, San Antonio (16-4) opened a two-game trip with Tuesday's 116-103 win at Toronto. The Spurs shot 54.9 percent and recorded a season best-tying 30 assists. The over is 6-1 in the Spurs last 7 games following a win and the over is 19-7 in the Spurs last 26 home games. Play the Timberwolves/Spurs over the total.

Kyle Hunter

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder -12

The Los Angeles Lakers are in some serious trouble. With Steve Blake down with an injury, the Lakers are now without their top three point guards. It means that Kobe Bryant, Nick Young, and Xavier Henry will be the point guards for the team on Friday against Oklahoma City. Russell Westbrook should have a huge game here, and the Lakers look out of sync with Kobe back in the lineup. Oklahoma City is far better than the Lakers, and without a true point guard the Lakers are bound to struggle in a big way. The Thunder are much better on the defensive end, and they'll frustrate the Lakers with their aggressive defense. Take Oklahoma City.

Stephen Nover

Charlotte Bobcats vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Charlotte Bobcats +12½

Charlotte has the defense and is in the right situational spot to hang tough against Indiana.

The Bobcats rank second to Indiana in defense allowing only 92.4 points per game. They catch the Pacers in a huge flat spot.

Indiana is off a hugely satisfying 90-84 home win against Miami this past Tuesday. The Pacers knocked off the Heat after returning from a five-game road trip where they took on four Western Conference heavyweights - Clippers, Trail Blazers, Spurs and Thunder. No team has had to face five such elite opponents during a six-game stretch. That takes both a physical and emotional toll.

After this matchup against the Bobcats, the Pacers face improved Detroit in a divisional game and then a rematch on the road against the Heat. This is the Pacers' rest stop. It's going to be hard for them to get fully motivated to play the non-division Bobcats, a team they destroyed in Charlotte three weeks ago by 25 points. The revenge-minded Bobcats will be much more pumped for this matchup than Indiana.

The Pacers could be distracted, too, if Danny Granger makes his season debut. He's been out all season due to a strained left calf. Granger has been targeting this game for his return. There would be an adjustment period if Granger were to play not to mention a rust factor.

Stephen Nover's Featured Package

Rob Vinciletti

Grizzlies vs. Pelicans
Play: Under 193½

This game fits a nice system from the database that has played under 11 of 12 times for short home favorites of less than 5 like New Orleans that scored 90 or more as a home favorite of 4 or less in their last game and covered the spread by 3 points are less and are now taking on an opponent off a spread loss at home in their last game, like Memphis. The Grizzlies have stayed under in 6 of 8 vs teams whom allow 99 or more points per game and the Pelicans 11 of 15 at home when the the total is 190 to 195. Look for this game to play under the total.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Justin Bay

Charlotte Bobcats vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Indiana Pacers -12

Charlotte Bobcats
- Average 89 PPG on road
- Allow 89.6 PPG on road
- .444 win % on road

Indiana Pacers
- Average 96 PPG @ home
- Allow 82 PPG @ home
- Perfect 10-0 @ home
- Average MOV @ home: +14 points

New Jersey Devils vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Play: Pittsburgh Penguins -185

New Jersey Devils
- Average 2.3 goals/game on road
- Allow 2.84 goals/game on the road
- Average 11.1 PP% on road
- Average 92.9 PK% on road

Pittsburgh Penguins
- Average 3.25 goals/game @ home
- Allow 1.9 goals/game @ home
- Average 27.3 PP% @ home
- Average 91.9 PK% @ home

Ray Monohan

Iowa vs. Iowa State
Play: Iowa State -3

I wish they had some more length up front but other than that it is hard not to like this Iowa State team. They play hard, have experienced leadership and know that they want to do out there. They also have a tough home court to overcome which is why I like them as short favourite against the Hawkeyes. Iowa looks much improved and should be a factor in the B10 but this is a hard go on the road in a rivalry spot. The home team is 6-2 ATS in this series.

MADDUX FREEBIE

Boston Celtics -3 vs New York Knicks
(Consensus line has already moved to -3.5, William Hill was already at -3.5 last night, and the side money is still around 90% to Boston.)

Doug Upstone

New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics
Play: Boston Celtics -4

On Friday, Play Against road teams like New York, revenging a loss where the opponent (Boston in this case) scored 110 or more points in last meeting, plus has a losing record and the visitor has a win percentage between 25 and 40 percent. What this NBA system proves is bad teams are always the way to go in revenge spots and the last four years they are 16-46 ATS, losing by almost nine points a game.

Brandon Shively

Iowa vs. Iowa State
Play: Iowa +3½

I will say that this is the most anticipated game between these two team in quite a while. With a combined 17-1 SU record and 10-5 ATS record, Iowa and Iowa State are off to a nice season. This is a series that has seen the home team win 9 of the last 10 matchups. Take a closer look and the OVER is 5-0 the last 5 with an average score of the home team (78) and the road team (70). That is 148 points but both teams, especially Iowa have a better offense this year. Iowa is averaging 89 ppg this year and are doing it with a deep bench. Roy-Devyn Marble is the leading scorer and he is only playing 26 minutes a game. The Hawkeyes can go 11 deep and HC McCaffery can put together multiple lineups to matchup vs. different teams.

For Iowa State, the losses were heavy this year but they have did a good job at reloading. DeAndre Kane is a Marshall transfer who is the team's second leading scorer and leading assist man. This is a deep team and this game should be a track meet.

While the home team is 9-1 SU the last 10 meetings, there are three things that I do not like about Iowa State tonight. They live and die by the 3, shooting 27 a game. If these shots are not falling, then they are in trouble. Next is the fact that they only shoot 68.8% from the foul line. And the last big factor is that Iowa is the better offensive rebounding team.
I am seeing Iowa State -3 currently. Please monitor this line and be patient and find this best # for this game in what could be a last possession game. If this dips to Iowa +2.5, then I still like them, but if the line jumps up and Iowa is +3.5 or more, I will advise a solid standard wager on this game.

Bobcats vs. Pacers
Play: Under 183½

As you are probably aware, the Pacers are the #1 team in the NBA in team defense as they are holding opponents to 89 ppg. What you might not know is that Charlotte is the #2 team in team defense at 92.4 ppg. Of course the Pacers are the better team and are shooting a much higher percentage from the floor than the Bobcats and that is why they are a legitimate double digit favorite tonight.

The Pacers just traveled to Charlotte 2 weeks ago and won 99-74. This game went UNDER the total of 181 by 8 points. The UNDER is now 7-0-1 the last 8 matchups between these two teams. Charlotte is averaging only 80 ppg in these games and I expect a similar outcome tonight.

The Pacers are coming off the BIG win vs. the Heat after that tough 5 game road trip out West. I like them to continue winning with defense tonight. The Pacers are only allowing opponents to score 82 ppg at home amazingly. They are an active team that forces turnovers and defends the perimeter well. The Bobcats really struggle behind the arc and I expect the final score tonight to be in the 94-79 range for another easy UNDER.

Trends:
Under is 4-0 in Bobcats last 4 Friday games.
Under is 7-0-1 in Bobcats last 8 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 6-0 in Bobcats last 6 vs. NBA Central.
Under is 9-1-1 in Bobcats last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.
Under is 12-3-1 in Bobcats last 16 overall.
Under is 7-0 in Pacers last 7 vs. NBA Southeast.
Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 Friday games.
Play on : Charlotte/ Indiana UNDER the TOTAL

LT Profits

Charlotte Vs Indiana
Pick: Bobcats +12

We have plays on both the Side & Total of this game between the Charlotte Bobcats and Indiana Pacers. This is the first game that the Pacers have played since beating the Miami Heat 90-84 on Tuesday in a game that they had circled as soon as the schedule first came out, and the win improved Indiana to an NBA best 19-3 including a perfect 10-0 here at home. However, to say that this is a huge letdown spot would only be stating the obvious considering the low profile and the reputation of the opponent. But that could play quite nicely into the hands of the Bobcats, who in case you have not noticed, are a respectable 10-12 in the early going including going 4-5 straight up on the road. Charlotte is 11-5-1 ATS as a dog this season. The Bobcats are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games.

Charlotte Vs Indiana
Pick: Over 183

Taking a look at the Total between the Charlotte Bobcats and Indiana Pacers Friday, with the Pacers in an obvious letdown spot after beating Miami, it may be reflected more on the defensive side with a lack of intensity. Well, the Bobcats may be second to last in the NBA in scoring at 90.5 points per game, but they are slowly climbing after being dead last at the beginning of this week, thanks to scoring 105 and 115 points respectively in back-to-back games vs. Philadelphia and Golden State. If Charlotte continues that shooting, it could serve as a wake-up call for the Pacers, who would realize that they need to pick things up offensively to avoid a major upset. While Indiana is 20th in the NBA in scoring, its 97.7-point average may be enough to help the ‘over’. The ‘over’ is 4-0 in the Pacers’ last four games following a straight up win.

EZWINNERS

Elon +13.5

This is a potential flat spot for #21 ranked Colorado. The Buffalo's come into this game off of a huge home win over then #6 ranked Kansas as Askia Booker connected on a three pointer as time expired to for a 75-72 court storming win. Their next game is against #7 ranked Oklahoma State at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. It will only be natural for these kids to still be on the emotional high from the buzzer beater while thinking ahead to the Oklahoma State game. Elon does not figure to be a team that the Buffs would be looking forward to playing, but the Phoenix can be dangerous. Elon comes into this game at 5-4 but have won three games in a row and are one of the front-runners to win the Southern Conference this year. The Phoenix returned their top six players from last seasons team that won twenty one game. What really makes this Elon team dangerous is the fact that they are one of the best shooting teams in the nation currently ranking 14th nationally in field goal percentage at 50.6%. I expect this one to be a bit closer than expected. Take the points.

DAVE COKIN

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS VS INDIANA PACERS
PLAY: CHARLOTTE BOBCATS +12

Here’s one straight out of Scheduling Dynamics 101. Charlotte travels to Indiana for a meeting tonight with the Pacers, and the Bobcats should benefit from this being a massive dead spot for the home team.

There are worse options than this Charlotte squad right now. They’re better than what many projected, and the proof of that pudding is their impressive spread record to date. Not only are the Bobcats winning more games than was largely expected, they’re also battling hard in lots of the games they lose. Consequently, the Charlotte ATS ledger is loaded with black ink.

The Pacers are obviously the vastly superior team, and under normal circumstances trying to beat them might not be the best idea. But these are most definitely not everyday conditions. Indiana just played and won what was clearly its biggest game of the season to date. They survived a fairly awful first half effort against Miami in which they appeared very tight. But in the second half, the Pacers got rolling and ended up garnering an important win in game they wanted in the worst way.

The Pacers now have home dates with Charlotte and Detroit before heading to South Beach for the rematch with the Heat. I don’t see any way Indiana covers both of these home games as heavy chalk, and there’s a good chance they could come up short against each opponent.

Playing the schedule and situation is vital in the NBA. Here you get the best of both worlds. It was a flat spot to begin with for Indy coming out of the Miami game. The fact they won that game makes this even more enticing. I’ll jump in and will grab the doubles with the Bobcats to at least get the cover tonight.

Jimmy Boyd

New Orleans Pelicans -3½

The Pelicans have put a lot of points on the board this season, and I don't think the Grizzlies defense will be able to slow them down on their home court. Memphis averages just 93.5 points per game while New Orleans has put up 103.4 points per game. The Pelican's defense has been decent, holding opponents to 98.3 points per game.

You should play against road underdogs like Memphis when they are revenging a home loss of 10 points or more and coming off a home loss by 10 points or more. This system is 53-27 (66%) ATS. The last time these teams played the Pelicans handed the Grizzlies an embarrassing 99-84 defeat. Now Memphis is coming off a 116-106 pounding from the Thunder. The Pelicans have won four of their last six games straight up and ATS, and that is a trend that will continue tonight.

Steve Janus

Boston Celtics -4

The Celtics had little to no trouble disposing of the Knicks earlier this season, as they came away with a 114-73 victory in New York. With Boston off back-to-back losses I don't see them overlooking a bad Knicks team that is getting a little too much love for scraping by a Bulls team that was missing nearly all their star players. New York lost at Cleveland by 15 points in their last road game. It's almost as if every time this team wins a game people start to think they are back to playing like the team from a year ago. I just don't see that happening until Tyson Chandler returns from an injury. New York is getting the respect of a team that is playing .500 basketball, instead of the 6-15 (3-7 away) team they really are. New York is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 following a SU win and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after a game where they covered the spread.

There's a key system that backs up the Knicks not getting their revenge on the road. Road teams who have won between 25% to 40% of their games, who are revenging a loss where they opponent scored 110 or more points and the opponent comes in with a losing record are just 16-46 (25.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons!