Wunderdog
Sacramento at Phoenix
Pick: Sacramento +6
There is not much to show for the Sacramento Kings on the road ledger, as they are just 2-4 to start the season. Phoenix has been a big surprise at 12-9 so far, but I don't expect that to last as this team has played over their talent level. The Kings are a lot better than their record, and have won two of their last three, and both meetings vs. Phoenix this season. The Kings' last seven vs. a winning team show three wins, and losses by 2, 2, 1 and overtime, and they are also 8-3-1 ATS in their last dozen on the road. The Kings are a much more competitive team than the record shows, so play on Sacramento in this one.
Rocketman
New York @ Boston
Play: New York +4
The New York Knicks travel to Boston to take on the Celtics on Friday night. In my opinion the Knicks have been underachievers so far this season. New York is 5-1 ATS last 6 road games against a team with a losing home record. New York is 7-0 ATS last 7 games on Friday. New York is 4-1 ATS last 5 games in Boston. The Underdog is 4-1 ATS last 5 games overall in this series. The road team is 4-1 ATS last 5 games overall in this series. New York is only 2 1/2 games behind Boston in the Atlantic. Carmelo Anthony is the 2nd leading scorer in the league averaging 25.6 points per game. I'm looking for Carmelo to have a big game here tonight. We'll recommend a small play on New York!
Jack Jones
Phoenix Suns -6.5
The Phoenix Suns are the most underrated team in the NBA this season. They have won three straight heading into this game with the Sacramento Kings to improve to 12-9 straight up and 15-5 against the spread on the year.
Sacramento is just 6-14 straight up and 7-12-1 against the spread in 20 games this season. It did not like how things were going, so it made a big trade for Rudy Gay. While Gay is supposed to play tonight, he only had one day of practice with the team on Thursday, and I look for the Kings to be lost out on the court tonight.
Sure, two of the Kings' six wins this season have come against the Suns, but that's all the more reason to like Phoenix here. There's no doubt that the Suns are going to want revenge on Sacramento, and I fully expect them to get it in blowout fashion at home tonight.
Phoenix is 8-1 ATS versus up-tempo teams who average 83 or more shots per game this season. The Kings are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home. Phoenix is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a win. Bet the Suns Friday.
Jeff Alexander
Memphis Grizzlies +3.5
Memphis has been at its best on the road lately, going 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 away from home. The Grizzlies are even on an impressive 11-4-2 ATS run in road games versus teams that have a winning record at home. The Pelicans are 6-5 at home but just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. They are also a disastrous 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 versus Western Conference opponents. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these division, and I expect this trend to continue.
Dave Price
Iowa Hawkeyes +4
The Iowa State Cyclones have "Hilton Magic" on their side, but it likely won't be enough to cover this number against the Iowa Hawkeyes, who just might be the deepest team in the nation. The Hawkeyes go 10-deep and will eventually wear out an Iowa State squad that plays basically seven guys. Iowa State lives and dies by the three-point shot, and Iowa defends the three well. It ranks 15th in the country in three-point defense, holding opponents to just 26.3% from beyond the arc, and is 11-3 ATS versus teams that attempt 21 or more three-point shots per game over the last two seasons. The Hawkeyes are on a 15-5 ATS run in non-conference play, and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games versus teams with a home winning percentage greater than .600. Take the points.
Joe Gavazzi
Brooklyn Nets +6
We bring down much of our profit in the NBA by following short term momentum. That is exactly what is happening with each of these teams. After a brief run up, Detroit enters at 0-3 SU with a defense that has allowed 114/49 in that timeframe. With no fewer than 5 injured players, the Nets were struggling at the beginning of the week with recent streaks of 3-12 SU and 4-11 ATS. The return of D. Will, Pierce and Garnett means that only Terry and Kirilenko were missing from the Nets lineup. As a result, Brooklyn enters tonight on a 3 game win streak, including last night’s victory at home 102-93 vs. the Clippers. Must reduce this rating a bit, however, with the knowledge that key cog Lopez injured his ankle last night, making his availability and efficiency a major question mark for tonight’s contest.
SPORTS WAGERS
DETROIT -5½ over Brooklyn
Thursday night NBA on prime time TV is the NBA’s version on Monday Night Football. The Association attempts to schedule the best games of the week for Thursday’s doubleheader and last night it was the Clippers at Brooklyn followed by Houston and Portland. The Nets have been an embarrassment so far but last night was an opportunity to step up and silence the critics for a few days and they did exactly that by putting away the Clip Joint in rather impressive fashion. The Nets showed up played hard and won. Don’t expect a repeat here. Brooklyn is a team that is not built to win anything. It's too old, too egotistical, too opinionated and too strong-minded. It's not a good mix. They put Jason Kidd in a situation to fail by trying to lead guys he’s played with and against when he's never led guys off the floor before. One night removed from “proving a point”, the Nets figure to be the same dysfunctional bunch they’ve been on most nights this season.
The Pistons have lost three in a row but two were against Western Conference teams, Minnesota and New Orleans, the latter coming in OT. Their other loss was to the Heat, two games after they went into Miami and defeated them. Prior to losing three in a row, the Pistons had won four straight with three of them being by double digits. This is a good team and the arrival of Josh Smith makes them better. The Pistons have managed above-average offensive efficiency by scoring as intended. Only the furiously paced 76ers have averaged more shot attempts in the restricted area this season while only five teams are better than Detroit in converting from deep in the paint. Awkward as the Pistons’ big lineups might be at times, they set a baseline for interior domination and refresh the offense with frequent offensive rebounds. Detroit was bound to have hiccups as a revamped roster and new coach settled in, but the grouping of Greg Monroe, Smith and Andre Drummond has stabilized by playing to its size and strengths. Hell, Drummond put up a stat line this month against Philadelphia (31 points, 19 rebounds and six steals) that the NBA hadn't seen in 23 years. Talent wise, the Pistons are the third best team in the East and there are going to be nights in which they bury the opposition. This is one of those favorable spots.
SPORTS WAGERS
FLORIDA +112 over Washington
OT included. The market has both these teams wrongly valued and we’ll start with the Capitals. Washington is perceived is a pretty decent team, but that evaluation is incorrect. When the Caps win a game it’s usually because their goaltender played better than the opposition’s. It’s a rare game when the Caps actually outplay, outshoot or out-chance their opponent. Washington’s current three-game winning streak is all smoke and mirrors. Against Tampa in their last outing they won 6-5 in OT but were outshot 42-31 and out-chanced 29-18.The Caps ranks second last in the NHL in shots allowed per game, ahead of only the Maple Leafs and we all know how that’s working out for Toronto. The difference is that Washington’s goaltending is worse than the Maple Leafs. This is a team with a weak defense, average goaltending and one good scoring line. Prolonged winning streaks for the Caps will be rare and their current one figures to end here.
The Panthers are perceived as one of the weaker clubs in the NHL but that’s a misconception too. They aren’t a powerhouse yet, but they are still undervalued. The Panthers have shot up the advanced statistic standings from being in the bottom six all the way up to #13 over the past month. The Panthers have outshot six of their past nine opponents, including the Blackhawks once and the Red Wings twice over their last three games. Florida has won three of their past four games with only loss coming against Chicago. Florida’s biggest problem early in the year was the inability to put the puck in but they are starting to score more goals now and the victories are following. This is a team loaded with young and enthusiastic talent and one should never underestimate a talented group of kids when they start rolling. The Panthers remind us of the young Blackhawks team from a few years back right before Chicago exploded onto the scene and in no way should they be a pooch at home against the Capitals.
Andre Gomes
Utah Jazz +10.5
I don't think that Jazz Head Coach Tyrone Corbin is a good coach for several reasons, but at least IMO he made the right decision to not start Favors and Kanter together as these two players are way too similar to share big minutes on the floor (just like the dilemma Howard & Asik @HOU earlier on the season).
Marvin Williams isn't a great player at all but his ability to spread the floor @PF position is working for the Jazz right now as their offense looks more fluid. Marvin had a nice 4-game stretch in which he shot 7-14 FG, 7-11 FG, 6-11 FG & 4-10 FG while hitting at least 2 treys in every game and the Jazz defeated CHI, PHX & HOU in that stretch. Eventually he got injured, missed 4 games (all UTA clear losses) and returned last game just to help the Jazz crush the Kings on the road.
With rookie PG Trey Burke running sharp pick n rolls & better floor spacing, the Jazz went from having Off. Rtg = 96.1 in the first 16 games of the season vs. 114.3 in L8 games! They are not an elite team but they aren't the same pathetic team that started the season.
Tonight they will catch a Nuggets team that enjoyed a nice 3-days rest after being on the road for quite some time. I took them in L3 games (@BOS, @PHI & @WAS) just because they were facing some favorable matchups and their superior depth was a premium factor that really helped them to win the last 2 games. However, although I won L2 plays w/ them I have to say that they looked awful (especially their starting unit) and they were able to win b/c PHI is a terrible team and the Wizards were seriously shorthanded for that game.
I understand that Ty Lawson didn't play in the last 2 games and he is probable for tonight's game, but I think the Nuggets right now are a bit overrated and probably way too much confident, while the Jazz are playing their best basketball of the season with all players healthy.
The Nuggets already faced the Jazz this season and crushed them @UTA 100-81 but that was the time where John Lucas III was starting for the Jazz and playing 34 minutes…. Enough said!
My fair line for this contest is DEN-6/-8 points so we have some edge on the Underdog getting double digits points and therefore I'm taking the Utah Jazz as my Single Dime Play!
Greg Shaker
Iowa St. -3
This is a very good matchup for Iowa State since their opponent will want to run the court just as they do. This is an extremely tough place to win a game for visitors and especially when you are the hated Hawkeyes. This series has seen a lot of home winners and 9-1 over the last 10 in fact have been won by the hosts. I don't see that changing here tonight with the Cyclones playing in front of a very live crowd. This one goes in the No-Brainer Category.
Chris Jordan
My free winner for tonight is on the Indiana Pacers, laying the points to the visiting Charlotte Bobcats in what should be an easy, wire-to-wire winner for the Eastern Conference leaders.
At 19-3, the Pacers have the best record in the NBA, one-half game better than the Portland Trail Blazers, who are 19-4 and pacing the Western Conference. The Pacers remain a perfect 10-0 in Indianapolis, while Charlotte (10-12) is 4-5 on the road.
I will hand it to the Bobcats, they are in the playoff picture and would currently make the cut as the No. 5 seed in a terrible Eastern Conference that has just two teams above .500. In perspective, the West three teams NOT making the playoffs right now that are .500 or better.
Indiana has beaten Charlotte nine straight times the Bobcats have come to town, plus, the Pacers won 99-74 in Charlotte back on Nov. 27, their fourth straight triumph over the 'Cats and 13th in 14 meetings overall. Thus, the Pacers shouldn't be lacking any confidence for this one.
Lay the chalk, this should be over real quick.
4♦ INDIANA
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Warriors over the Rockets.
Houston routed Golden State last week at the Toyota Center, 105-83, but the tables could very well be turned tonight, as the Rockets will be playing their road game just 24 hours after getting beat back in Portland last night, while Golden State was enjoying their Thursday evening idle.
The Warriors have won 7 of their first 9 games at home this season straight up, but they will have to improve on their 1-4 home spread mark their last 5 at Oracle Arena. Golden State will also have to improve on their 1-6 straight up mark against the Rockets the last 7 meetings.
Yes, the numbers look bad for a play on the favored Warriors, but my feeling is the day idle coupled by the fact Houston was involved in that TNT battle last night in Rip City is going to have Kevin McHale's team just a little fatigued come the later stages of tonight's tussle.
Lay the points with the revenge-seeking hosts.
3♦ GOLDEN STATE
Craig Davis
Free play of the day on the OKC Thunder minus the double digits at home against the LA Lakers. At the time of this writing, the Thunder are a solid 12 across the board in Vegas but 13 across the board offshore.
The Thunder rolls!! No, I'm not talking about the Garth Brooks classic, I'm talking about watching this OKC team during their recent run of wins. As I told you earlier this week, I was in the arena for OKC's blowout win over the Pacers and they didn't even bat an eye.
It was their most complete game of the season and since then they've won two more times and look to make it another convincing home win tonight.
They didn't play all that great in Atlanta and still had the third teamers on the floor in the final minutes as they rolled to a nine point win despite the starters not playing all that well.
Then a 16-point rout in Memphis two nights ago just solidified what I've been thinking all season... this is the best team in the NBA. Yes, I realize the Heat are the champs until someone dethrones them, but it was OKC that had a chance to get that job done two years ago and they just couldn't overcome Miami's ridiculous three-point shooting in that series.
You can tell they are more focused this year and on a mission to finish the job.
Take OKC in a 20-point win tonight.
2♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the Golden State Warriors laying a cheap number against the Houston Rockets in Oakland.
As good as the Rockets are, I really don't know if they're set to defend one of the league’s top offensive players after they were just dealt a loss in Portland last night. The Western Conference-leading Trail Blazers loaded up on the offensive surge, and ran away with a 111-104 win over Houston.
Now the Rockets have to deal with Stephen Curry, who's averaged 30.5 points on 48.4 percent shooting and 40.7 percent 3-point shooting in his last six trips to the court. And Curry isn't just shooting the lights out and putting up big numbers on the scoreboard, as he's also dished 9.8 assists per game during that same span.
And the Rockets might want to be careful, as Curry is not only coming into this one after his game-winning jumper beat the Mavericks, but his worst game during this five game run was against these same Rockets, as he scored "a mere 22 points" while committing a rather uncharacteristic eight turnovers.
Oh, and the Warriors lost that game, 105-83. So, revenge is always a good ploy to bank on as well. Golden State hits Phoenix on Sunday, then is back for a date with New Orleans before a home showdown with San Antonio next week.
My money is on the Oaktown boys, as they'll be looking to continue building momentum leading up to the Spurs.
1♦ GOLDEN STATE
Brad Wilton
If you are looking for offense this Friday night in the NBA, check out the Kings and Suns in the Valley of the Sun, as I fully expect Sacramento and Phoenix to engage in one of the higher-scoring contests this Friday night.
Sacramento just combined with Utah on Wednesday for 223 points, as the Kings made it 4 straight Overs on their schedule coming into Friday's action. Phoenix meanwhile has been a definite Over team this season, playing 13 of their 21 games overall Over the posted price. The Suns have been Over the total in their last pair, and 6 of their last 8 overall.
Already the third meeting of the season between the teams, as the teams played a home-and-home in November that saw BOTH games land Over the total to make it a 4-0-1 Over run in the series the last 5 times these Western rivals have faced each other.
Hard to buck those trends, so back the Kings and Suns to head Over the total one more time here on Friday night.
3♦ SACRAMENTO-PHOENIX OVER