Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, December 16

Rob Vinciletti

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Ottawa Senators
Play: Pittsburgh Penguins

Even with the loss of Super star Sid the Kid Crosby to what appears to more concussion like Symptoms. The Pens still have plenty enough Fire power to stymie an Ottawa team that checks in at 2-6 in December and 4-11 vs winning teams. In games they have revenge they have lost 13 of the last 19. The Penguins are 10-5 in the series winning 5 of the last 7 here. They have handled losing teams winning 8 of 11. Thank God its Friday? Not for the Senators they have lost all four Friday games this season. Look for the Penguins to get the win and remain undefeated on Friday.

Jim Feist

UC Santa Barbara at Washington
Play: Over 150

After battling Duke and Marquette (both losses) last week, Washington gets to come home and step down in competition against UC Santa Barbara. Washington is a strong offensive team and will put its track shoes back on. That's fine with Santa Barbara, a team averaging 79.4 ppg behind a strong offensive duo of Johnson and Nunnally. The over is 7-1 in the Gauchos last 8 non-conference games, as well as 5-1 over the total in their last 6 overall. Washington is on a 5-0 run over the total, as well as 5-0 over in the Huskies last 5 non-conference games. Look for a track meet, Play Santa Barbara/Washington Over the total.

David Chan

Mighty Ducks @ Blackhawks
PICK: Under

The 9-16-5 Anaheim Ducks waddle into Chicago to take on the 19-8-4 Blackhawks.

The Ducks finally got their offense untracked in Wednesday's 4-1 win over the Coyotes; but I was more impressed with their defensive play, where every player on the ice was accountable for getting back on the rush and contesting each and every puck.

And the return of defenseman Lubomir Visnovsky was a big reason why; Visnovsky returned from injured reserve and had an assist and ran the powerplay which racked up seven-shots:

“New coach, new system, and I don’t play in a month—that’s pressure,” said Visnovsky. “Everybody was saying, `Lubo is back, Lubo is back.’ But every shift, I had more confidence in me. … Sometimes it’s still not easy because of the finger, but I have a lot of energy right now. The guys all need to bring energy.”

Goaltender Jonas Hiller only had to make 19-saves.

The Blackhawks are coming off a 4-3 SO win at Minnesota on Wednesday.

Chicago is rolling right now, 7-1-1 in its last nine.

Chicago actually played pretty tight defensively in the victory as the Wild went 17 minutes into the game without a shot, and trailed 21-12 in shots at the second intermission.

The last time these teams met, Chicago won 6-5 in Anaheim on November 25th.

But I see tonight's game being a much more defensive affair.

The Blackhawks return home after a five-game successful road trip; the Ducks are desperately looking to string some wins together, and after a huge defensive effort in front of the home town crowd, hit the road for a tough five game trip, including tomorrow night in Winnipeg.

All signs point to a tight, close-checked contest; I'm playing the under!

WUNDERDOG

Idaho State at Utah
Pick: Idaho St -2.5

This Idaho State team certainly isn't going to turn any heads, or make any postseason tournaments, but this may be and likely will be the worst Utah team of all time. The cupboard is indeed empty. The Utes opened with a win vs. a non Div-1 team in lowly San Diego Christian, struggling at home to a 3-point win. That paved the way for their future struggles, as they are 0-8, losing the eight games by a stunning 171 points. Idaho State has at least shown flashes with a 4-point loss to Oklahoma, and a pair of OT losses to Loyola, Marymount. The Utes don't have a home-court advantage this season and are 1-6 ATS in their last seven here. Go with Idaho State in this one.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Utah +2½

The Utes have lost 8 in a row since winning their opener, but they have an excellent opportunity to end their skid this evening. Utah plays a half-court style that has given the Bengals fits. Consider that Idaho State is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games versus slow-down teams that average 53 or less shots per game. The Bengals are losing to these teams by an average score of 68 to 53. Utah won the most recent meeting with Idaho State 68-56 at home 2 years ago. The Utes have won 4 straight at home in this series with each win coming by 6 points or more. The Bengals haven't shown they can be trusted laying even a small number. They are 12-27-1 ATS in their last 40 games as a favorite of 6.5 or less and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 6.5 or fewer. The Utes, meanwhile, are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less. We'll bet the Utes.

Steve Janus

Cal Santa Barbara +8

My money is on the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos to give the Washington Huskies everything they can handle tonight. Not only do I think the Gauchos will cover the 8-point spread, but I think there is a solid chance they win this game outright.

UC Santa Barbara has already proven they can hang with some very good basketball teams. The Gauchos lost to San Diego State 75-76 in overtime, who are currently 9-2 on the season. In their next game they lost 88-94 in 2OT to then No.20 UNLV. While both of those losses came at home, UC Santa Barbara bounced back with a road win over San Diego in their last game. This team is going to be excited for the opportunity to take on a nationally recognized program in Washington.

The Gauchos feature one of the best scoring tandems that no one knows about. 6-5 senior G/F Orlando Johnson is averaging 22 points and 7 rebounds a game, while senior 6'7 G/F James Nunnally is right behind him at 18 points and 6 boards. They also have a talented senior 6'9 F/C in Jaime Serna, who is averaging 11.5 points and 5 rebounds a game.

There's no doubt the Huskies have some pretty talented players of their own in C.J. Wilcox(16.5 ppg), Terrence Ross (16.5 ppg), and Tony Wroten (14.3 ppg). However, they are expected to be without 7'0 center Aziz N'Diaye, who leads the team in rebounds (8.8) and block shots (2.0). Not having N'Diaye is a huge loss, as they are now very thin inside against all those talented inside players for UC Santa Barbara.

Another reason I think the Huskies are in for a difficult night is the fact that this team traveled cross-country to play two very good teams in Duke and Marquette last week. They then had to fly back and spend the entire week focusing on their final exams. I simply don't think Washington is going to be able to match the intensity of the Gauchos.

UC Santa Barbara is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, while Washington is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite.

Jack Jones

Washington -7½

Washington is primed for a dominant performance tonight at home against Cal Santa Barbara. The Huskies are a much better team than their 4-4 record would indicate, but they have simply fell victim to a very tough schedule in the early going.

Washington's four losses this season have come against Duke, Marquette, Saint Louis and Nevada. Those four teams have a combined 34-5 record on the season. They have lost three straight by a combined 11 points, all on the road or on a neutral court. After playing both Marquette and Duke in their last two games, the Huskies will be battle-tested and ready to take on a much lesser opponent tonight.

Santa Barbara has played a very favorable schedule. They have played six home games compared to just one road game, which resulted in a narrow 65-61 win at San Diego as a 10-point favorite. This is by far their toughest test of the season, and I don't see them being able to stay within double-digits of the Huskies Friday.

Washington is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games after 2 consecutive non-conference games. The Huskies are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 December games. Santa Barbara is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Santa Barbara is 10-27 ATS in their last 37 versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game. The Gauchos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Bet Washington Friday.

Larry Ness

Cal-Santa Barbara +7½

The Washington Huskies opened the month of December with a road game at Nevada (lost 76-73) and then moved on to Madison Square Garden to take on Marquette (lost 79-77) and Duke (lost 86-80). Head coach Romar and his team must be happy to be back home, where the team is 4-0. Romar has been stuck on 199 victories for his stay at Washington but considering the Huskies own a 31-game win streak at home against non-conference opponents, tonight may just be the night he reaches 200. Then again, Santa Barbara is a pretty good team, which is 5-2 to open the season, with both losses coming to quality teams, San Diego St (76-75 in OT) and UNLV (94-88 in double-OT). Led by a dynamic pair of big guards, the 6-5 Johnson (22.1-6.9-3.4) and the 6-6 Nunnally (18.0-5.7), the Gauchos have been to two straight NCAA tourneys. The 6-9 Serna (11.6-4.9) is also a quality player plus New Mexico transfer Garth (3.9-3.3 APG) plus freshman Taylor (4.4-2.9 APG) give the Gauchos a pair of decent PGs. While Washington lost Thomas (16.8-6.1 APG) and the 6-9 Bryan-Amaning (15.3-8.0), as well as two other contributors from LY's 24-win team, there is no shortage of talent at Washington. The starters in the backcourt are Wilcox (16.5-3.9), Ross (16.5-7.0) and PG Gaddy (8.6-5.1 APG) but freshman Wroten (14.3-4.5-3.3) may turn out to be the best of the bunch (he currently comes off the bench). Up front, the 6-8 Gant (8.9-4.1) and the 7-0 N'Diaye (7.1-8.8) give the Huskies a slight frontcourt edge. Washington is the better team but I'm no huge fane of Romar while UCSB's Bob Williams is a 'keeper.' The duo of Johnson and Nunnally keep this one close. Take the points.

DAVID BANKS

UC Santa Barbara / Washington Over

Friday’s small college hoops slate is headlined with a matchup in the Pacific Northwest where the Washington Huskies (4-4, 4-3 ATS) will host the Big West rep UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (5-2, 2-3 ATS) in nonconference action; tip-off from Alaska Airlines Arena is set for 10:00 ET.

The reigning Big West tournament champs put an end to their two-game losing streak their last time out at San Diego where they upended the Toreros 65-61 as 10 point road chalk. The win was the team’s fifth of the season and catapulted them into third place of the Big West Conference behind Cal State Fullerton and Cal Poly SLO. Forward Jaime Serna’s 22 points picked up the slack for the team’s leading scorer, Orlando Johnson (22.1 PPG), who managed just 12 points on three of eight shooting in the team’s lone road win of the season. Already pounding Santa Clara 89-56 (-8) and taking both San Diego State and UNLV to overtime before falling in both contests, the Gauchos look to be a major contender within their conference. UCSB has scored an average of 79.4 PPG (#29) while converting 46.8% of their shots from the field (#66); they've also taken care of business at the free-throw line converting at a 71.3% clip (#85).

The Huskies return home off a decent showing in the Jimmy V Classic taking Marquette to the gun before falling by a lone basket (79-77), and then following it up with a solid showing against the Duke Blue Devils whom they fell to by an 86-80 final count as eight-point underdogs. The pair of defeats dropped them to an even 4-4 SU on the year, but now head coach Lorenzo Romar's kids returns home to the comfy confines of their own arena where they're a perfect 4-0 SU & 2-1 ATS against Georgia State, Florida Atlantic, Portland, and Houston Baptist. Guard Abdul Gaddy might only be scoring an average of just 8.6 PPG, but he’s also dishing off an average of 5.1 assists per game. Benefiting from his passing wizardry has been guards Terrence Ross and C.J. Wilcox who both check in with 16.5 PPG averages. The Huskies have had no problems scoring the basketball (#20 at 80.4 PPG), but the defense has been porous to say the least (#300 at 73.9 PPG).

UCSB has failed to win or cover either of the last two times it was installed an underdog of 8+ points, and stands 2-8 SU & 4-6 ATS in that role dating back to the 2008 season. On the flipside, Washington is 7-3 SU but just 4-6 ATS the L/10 times it was installed 8+ point home chalk. The Gauchos are 5-2 ATS when playing off their L/7 SU wins, but just 1-4 ATS their L/5 versus the Pac-12. U-Dub’s 10-4-1 ATS its L/15 nonconference tussles, but a bankroll depleting 3-7 ATS its L/10 at as a host.

SPORTS WAGERS

NEW JERSEY -½ +116 over Dallas

The Stars have won three in a row on the road and will conclude their road trip here tonight. It will be the tail end of back to-backs and third road game in four days after last night’s 3-2 win over the Islanders. Dallas defeated the Rangers 1-0 on Tuesday and in their last three wins they’ve managed just six goals. The reason for the wins was some hot goaltending from newcomer Richard Bachman and they may be pushing him a bit, as he makes another start here. Also note that Dallas had won just four of 13 games prior to this road trip and after three intense games in a row, this assignment becomes a daunting one. New Jersey is coming on. The Devils could be so dangerous if they had reliable goaltending. They work hard and they have an outstanding mix of youth and veterans. They’re creating a ton of chances that are resulting in goals. Ilya Kovalchuk has five goals and five assists in the last nine games. Zach Parise has four goals and eight assists in the last nine games and Calder candidate C Adam Henrique has 11 in the last 10 games. N.J. has won four of its last five games and they’ve scored 17 times over that span. Also note that Travis Zajac returns to the line-up and although he is likely to be eased back slowly, his presence is a big boost. Play: New Jersey -½ +116 (Risking 2 units).

Toronto +120 over BUFFALO

The Sabres continue to struggle and until we see a major improvement in both their play and desire to win, we’ll continue to fade them. Buffalo has three wins in its last 11 games. One of those wins came in OT and another came against Nashville in a game they were dominated in. On Wednesday, the Sabres allowed 44 shots on net by Ottawa and lost 3-2 in OT. That score was flattering to them. This is a team in dissarray. Mentally, they’re just not the same Sabres team we’ve been accustomed to seeing over the years. Buffalo has played with heart and a chip on its shoulder for years and years under Lindy Ruff. That chip is gone and when a team shows a lack of mental toughness, the collapse is not far behind. The Leafs are coming off a 2-1 OT win against Carolina. That score is misleading, as the Leafs had a 29-9 shot advantage at one point and ran into a red-hot Cam Ward. Despite going just 2-2 over its last four, Toronto has played well in all of them. The Leafs are in much better form than Buffalo and offer up all the value in this winnable game. Play: Toronto +120 (Risking 2 units).

John Ryan

Idaho State at Utah Dec
Play: Idaho State

These are two struggling basketball teams that will be looking to use this season to rebuild for future ones. Each team returns just two starters this season and it takes a significant amount of practice time and game experience to develop strong chemistry. In this matchup, Idaho State has some clear advantages that will get them the road win and cover. Both of these teams rank in the bottom third of the nationally rankings. The Utah Utes rank 329th scoring 56.9 points per game, 320th getting just 30.8 rebounds per game, 315th getting 10.2 assists per game, and 266th hitting 40.8% of their shots. They play a slow paced style of game reflected in their much better shooting percentage than points scored. They will work the ball for the best available shot, but given rebounding woes they rarely get enough second chance scoring opportunities. Idaho State Bengals rank significantly higher than the Utes, but are still a team that would struggle against teams ranked in the top-100 of the RPI rankings. The Bengals rank 221st scoring 66.2 points per game, 262nd averaging 33.3 rebounds per game. 184th getting 12.9 assists per game, and 207th making 42.7% of their shots. Idaho State does play about 10 players deep and this serves to develop the bench players and keeps every one fresh during the second half. They are led in scoring by Melvin morgan, who is averaging 12.8 points per game on 38% shooting. He is hitting an excellent 80% of his free throws. The second leading scorer is Chase Grabau averaging 10.7 points per game and is hitting 49% from the field adn 75% form the charity stripe. Utah runs about eight players deep and are completely dependent on senior guard Josh Watkins for offensive production. He is not the prototypical guard at 6-0 and 200 pounds and can post up most defensive guards. He is averaging 17.3 points per game on 45.5% shooting and is hitting 70% from the charity stripe. He is not a strong three point shooter hitting just 28% of those shot attempts. The line for this opened with Idaho State installed as a 1 ? point favorite. The sharps came in and bet Idaho State sending the line to as high as 2 ? points. Most shops currently have Idaho State listed as two point favorites. I don?t see any significant line movement from this point on. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Idaho State will win this game by four or more points. The simulator shows a high probability exceeding 85% that Utah will make between 40 and 46% of their shot attempts. Although this is above their season average, it is not good news. In past games Utah is just 2-10 ATS in home games when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 175-114 ATS over the past five seasons. Play on road teams after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games and with just two starters returning from last season. Of the 289 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 98 of them or 34% covered the spread by seven or more points. This under scores my strong believe that Idaho State will win this game by double digits. Take the Bengals to the bank!

Black Widow

1* UNC-Greensboro +5

While I will admit that UNC-Greensboro is not a very good team this year, there's no way they should be an underdog at home tonight to East Carolina. Greensboro has played eight road games this season compared to two home games. A schedule like this would be tough for any team in the country. UNC will be looking forward to playing in front of their home fans tonight, where they are 1-1 on the season. UNC has played road games against Tennessee, Georgetown, Florida State and Middle Tennessee State, so it's easy to see why this team is off to a slow start. ECU is 4-4, but they have only played two true road games, which resulted in losses at Campbell and Old Dominion. ECU has lost three straight overall coming in, which is another reason why they should not be favored. The Pirates are 15-34-2 ATS in their last 51 games as a favorite, including 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Wrong team favored here. Take UNC-Greensboro and the points.

Hollywood Sports

Ducks at Blackhawks
Prediction: Over

Chicago (19-8-1-3) will be playing their third game in a row at home after their 6-5 win versus Anaheim on Wednesday. The Blackhawks have played 5 straight games Over the Total that are played with one day in-between contests. Chicago has also played 5 straight Overs as a big favorite of -201 or higher. Additionally, the Blackhawks have seen the Over go 13-5-1 in their last 19 home games. Anaheim (9-16-2-3) is just 2-7-1-3 on the road this season -- and Chicago has played 4 straight games Over the Total at home against teams with a road winning percentage below 40%. The Ducks have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Anaheim comes off a 4-1 win over Phoenix on Wednesday -- and the Over is 6-2-1 in the Ducks' last 9 games played with one day of rest between games. Take the Over in this one.

OC Dooley

Utah +2

We have seen a major line swing in this contest which actually saw Utah open as a one-point home favorite. Since the Utes (1-8) arguably are right now one of the worst teams in the nation, it is easy to see why there has been a sudden shift in the money-line. Utah has yet to defeat a Division I opponent in this transition season with a new head coach, and the average losing margin (19 points per game) has been ugly. But the fact of the matter is that Utah has special MOTIVATION tonight as this team has only three games left before the beginning of Pac-12 conference play and desperately needs a jolt of confidence. Just two days ago reserve guard Glen Dean underwent BRAIN SURGERY to repair what turned out to be a blood vessel malformation. Not only are the Utes playing tonight for a fallen teammate, coach Larry Krsytoviak has said that his troops have had a great week of practice leading up to this contest. The last time Utah was on the floor was one week ago when they dropped a 61-42 decision to highly talented Brigham Young, but according to the head coach this team played hard right down to the final buzzer and displayed energy. The bottom line is that Utah tonight is hosting a “beatable” opponent as Idaho State is 0-for-5 so far when playing on the road. This is the same Idaho State contingent that a year ago posted an ugly 9-20 overall record. Another bad mark against tonight’s visitor is an easy schedule as their toughest opponent is actually “within” their own non-BCS conference, which is NOT a glowing endorsement. My database research indicates that Idaho State is a disastrous 0-7 ATS the past two years when facing a “slow down” offense who averages less than 54 shot attempts per contest. Also long term Idaho State has cost bettors a fortune (1-11 ATS) when taking the court after a game where the defense was scorched for 80+ points on the scoreboard. As mentioned earlier in this analysis Utah is just three games away from entering their maiden campaign as a member of the Pac-12 Conference (courtesy of the football program) and desperately needs a confidence booster. Tonight the Utes rally for a fallen teammate who just underwent a major brain surgical procedure