Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, December 17,2010

Marc Lawrence

Utah Jazz at New Orleans Hornets
Prediction: New Orleans Hornets

Not surprisingly, New Orleans has come back to earth after an 11-1 SU start to the season. Despite a recent skid that has seen them drop nine of thirteen, we'll take a ride down the mighty Mississippi with the hosts in this battle of New Orleans as the Hornets are a profitable 4-2 ATS this season at home as a dog or a favorite of less than five points. They may even take the Jazz by surprise tonight as they didn't put up much of a fight three weeks ago in Utah, dropping a bloody 105-87 decision. That sets the stage nicely for this rematch as the Hornets are 10-6-1 ATS in the series with same-season revenge, including 5-1 ATS when the Jazz own a .660 or greater win percentage. With Utah coming off a same-season revenger with Golden State and just 5-14 SU and ATS on the road after running with the Warriors, we'll fire with the Hornets. We recommend a 1-unit play on New Orleans.

Tom Freese

Heat at Knicks
Play:: Over

New York is 11-5 OVER off a straight up loss and they are 8-3 OVER after allowing 100 or more points in their last game. The Knicks are 5-0 OVER their last 5 home games. New York is 5-2 OVER their last 7 games when playing with one day of rest. Miami is 5-0 OVER vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60%. The Heat are 8-3 OVER their last 11 games when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their last game. The Heat are 6-2 OVER their last 8 meetings in New York.

Rob Vinciletti

Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Dallas Mavericks -7

The Suns qualify in a negative system that plays against road dogs of 5 or more that are off a home favored win at -5 or more and scored 120 or more points, if their opponent is coming off a home game where they shot 50% or better these punch less pups are a 94% go against. Dallas is 14-2 vs teams that average 99 or more points per game, while the Suns are just 6-12 ats as a road dog from +6.5 to +9. Look for the Suns to set here in Dallas tonight.

Jim Feist

Suns vs. Mavericks
Play: Under 210½

An uptempo team against a great defensive one: Who will control the tempo? Dallas is No. 6 in the NBA allowing 93.2 ppg and 7th in the league allowing .437% shooting by opponents. The Mavericks have played 7 games against uptempo teams in Minnesota, Denver, Utah, Houston and Golden State and went 5-2 under the total. Phoenix is on a 4-3 run under the total and Dallas at home will control this tempo, meaning this one is too high. Play the Suns/Mavericks Under the total.

Nelly

Miami - over New York

After some early season struggles the Heat have turned up the intensity to the tune of ten straight wins, going 8-2 ATS in that span. Winning on the road has not been a problem, going 5-0 S/U and ATS in the past five away games and Miami has come up big in the biggest emotional contests, beating the Cavaliers twice as well as winning convincingly against the winning teams the Heat has faced in December. Miami has won in low-scoring defensive battles and in offensive shootouts, looking like the team most expected to see when the big announcement was made. The Knicks have been one of the top ATS teams in the league but almost all of that success has come in road games. New York is just 6-5-1 ATS at home and just 6-6 S/U and while New York is an improved team the Knicks have rarely held up against the elite teams in the league. Out of 16 wins this season New York only has three wins against teams with winning records and only one of those wins came at home. The schedule for New York rates near the bottom in terms of difficulty at this point in the season and despite being six games above .500 the Knicks are barely ahead in point differential. In the last five games the Knicks have allowed 112 points per game compared to 88 allowed by Miami and LeBron James and crew should play well in Madison Square Garden, stepping up to face a hostile crowd with success as they did in Cleveland.

James Patrick Sports

Jazz vs. Hornets

New Orleans has come back to earth after an (11-1) SU start to the season. Despite a recent skid that has seen them drop nine of twelve, we'll back the "Insects" here as the Hornets are (4-2) ATS this season at home as a dog or a favorite of less than five points. They owe the Jazz for a (105-87) setback earlier this season. Big Game James Patrick's Friday NBA complimentary selection is New Orleans Hornets.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder

We've got no problem going against Sacramento, particularly on the road where the 'Queens' are 2-8 SU this season, getting outscored by double digits. They have just two wins since November 10th and they came at home vs. New Jersey and Washington! The Thunder have hit their stride with four straight wins and covers.

Play on: Oklahoma City

LT Profits

Cavaliers / Pacers Over 196

While we get that the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Indiana Pacers are not two of the top scoring teams in the league, we feel that each team has enough holes on the defensive side for the offenses to do just enough for this NBA matchup to reach 200 points combined, which would be safely ‘over’ the total.

The Cavaliers rank 12th out of 15 Eastern Conference teams in scoring defense, allowing 102.8 points per game, and they rank 28th out of 30 NBA teams in field goal percentage allowed at a very high 47.9 percent. As a result, the ‘over’ is 7-2 vs. the NBA odds in the last nine Cleveland games overall, and they disturbingly allowed more than 100 points in eight of those nine games.

Looking at the entire season, all Cavaliers’ games are averaging a combined 196.1 points in NBA betting, but when the Cavs go on the road as they are here, that average rises to 203.4 points, easily ‘over’ this posted total. In fact, the ‘over’ is a lucrative 10-4, 71.4 percent in all Cleveland road games this year, compared to just 3-8 at home.

Now the Pacers are averaging a whopping 103.4 points per game at home, so you just know that they are salivating at the thought of taking on this Cleveland defense right now. Indiana is also shooting a good 46.5 percent in their own building, which makes for a tough matchup for a Cavaliers’ defense that is allowing a miserable 49.4 percent field goal success rate on the road on the NBA betting odds.

Interestingly, all five Cleveland starters reached double-digits in a loss to the Miami Heat on Wednesday, while four of the five Indiana starters reached double-digits in a loss to the Los Angeles Lakers that same night. That only increases the likelihood of an ‘over’ in this NBA matchup.

Tom Stryker

Utah @ New Orleans
PICK: Utah -1.5

Utah has alternated wins and losses in its last seven games and, off a 108-95 decision over Golden State, the knee-jerk reaction might be to side with New Orleans in this contest. Not so fast my friend. The Jazz have danced all over the Hornets to the tune of 16-4 SU and 14-5-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings and they're in a position to dominate once again.

On foreign courts, Utah played solid basketball posting a strong 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS record in its last seven games with their lone blemish coming by six points at Dallas. In their last four trips to the Big Easy, the Jazz have posted a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS mark and won by margins of 11, 14, 8 and 11 points respectively.

New Orleans enters this conference battle of a three-point home win over Sacramento. Unfortunately, since ripping off eight consecutive wins and covers to start the season, the Hornets are just 7-10 SU and 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 games including a disturbing 0-7-2 ATS in this role matched up against a foe that checks in with momentum off a straight up win. The Northwest Division in the West has given New Orleans fits too. In their last 41 wars against this division, the Hornets are just 17-24 SU and 13-28 ATS including a jaw-dropping 4-17 ATS in this role coming off an ATS loss.

Jazz All-Star guard Deron Williams is in a zone right now and he's done a number on Hornets guard Chris Paul lately. Head coach Jerry Sloan's troops are playing better basketball and they'll find a way to leave New Orleans Arena with another victory. Take Utah.

Ray Monohan

Nashville Predators vs. New Jersey Devils
Play: New Jersey Devils

I love the value we get here in this spot with the Devils on home ice. The Devils look like they're starting to turn the corner on what has so far been a below-average season, and are 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home. Marty Brodeur recorded his 113th career shutout as the Devils snapped a season-high 5-game skid with a 3-0 victory over Phoenix Wednesday. For all its troubles, New Jersey does own a 5-7-2 mark at the Prudential Center, not great, but getting better. Brodeur (5-12-1, 2.68 goals-against average), will be in net tonight for NJ, and for Nashville we'll see rookie Anders Lindback (8-1-2, 2.16 goals-against average). Rinne (knee) and forwards David Legwand (lower body) and Matthew Lombardi (concussion) are still out for Nashville. The last time these two teams met the Devils came away with a 5-2 victory. I expect more of the same here as Patrik Elias, Kovalchuk, and Arnott will show up tonight, in what should be a low scoring game.

John Ryan

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Los Angeles Lakers -5½

5* graded play on the Lakers as they take on the Philadelphia 76ers set to start 7:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Lakers will win this game by five or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 62-30 ATS for 67.4% winners since 1996. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are very good teams outscoring opponents by >=+7 points per game and is now facing an average team posting a scoring differential of +/- 3 points per game and after leading their last three games by five+ points at the half. 41% of these games have covered the spread by seven or more points. Lakers rank fourth in offensive scoring at 106.4 points per game. Philadelphia is just 13-28 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams scoring 99+ points per game over the last three seasons. Just looking at the ‘flash’ stats and record you can easily see why this is a monumental mismatch. Lakers are 19-7 overall and in first place in the Pacific division. They have posted a 6-1 division record and rank third in the conference and have an 11-5 conference record. The 76ers are just 10-15 overall and in third place in the Atlantic division and have posted a 3-3 mark against divisional opponents. This is arguably the weakest division in the NBA. They rank ninth in the conference and have posted a losing 7-12 conference record. The 76ers have no answer for Pau Gasol and I expect him to have a 25+ point game. Moreover, the 76ers cannot matchup and defend both Gasol and Lamar Odem, who is averaging 15.7 points per game. When the 76ers double team or collapse the defense into the paint it will open up high percentage perimeter shots that the Lakers are knocking down. Take the Lakers.

Larry Ness

Tennessee @ Charlotte
PICK: Tennessee -12 5

Charlotte's first-year head coach Alan Major (long time Thad Matta assistant) has not had an easy time of it this season. The team's best player, the 6-9 Spears (16.0-5.9 LY) has finally been dismissed from the team, following his THIRD suspension over the last two seasons. The 49ers still have some talent though, a transfer Briscoe (14.8-3.6-4.0) and returning guard Green (12.3-4.9-4.0) form a solid backcourt duo. Up front, the 6-10 Jones (6.2-6.7) is flanked by the 6-9 Braswell (10.3-6.7) and the 6-6 Wilderness (7.4-4.8). However, here's the rub. Charlotte is catching the 7th-ranked Vols off their first loss of the season. Tennessee got a HUGE win this past Saturday, upsetting then-No. 3 Pittsburgh, but the "good times" didn't last long, as the Vols were upset 89-82 by Oakland (Michigan) on Tuesday, just the SECOND non-conference home loss in six seasons under coach Bruce Pearl. This game will be played at the Time Warner Arena (home of the Bobcats, not Charlotte's on-campus arena), lessening the 49ers' advantage. The Vols lost big men Chism (12.6-7.2) and Tyler Smith (11.7-4.7) from LY's squad, as well as the 6-7 Prince (9.9-3.7) and guard Maze (9.4). However, while depth is somewhat of a issue for Pearl's squad this year, talent isn't. The 6-7 Hopson (16.5-3.6) is off to a great start, joined by veteran guards Tatum (12.2-3.5-2.8) and Goins (10.3-3.4 APG). Up front, 6-10 center Williams (7.5-8.4) is a traditional 'wide-body,' while the 6-8 Harris (15.4-6.0) is one of the nation's top freshman. The 49ers are in the wrong place at the wrong time, as I expect the Vols to bounce back in a big way. With Spears suspended and Briscoe struggling with an Achilles' tendon injury (scored just eight points on 2-of-11 shooting in his last game), the 49ers are no match for the 'wounded' and angry Vols, who blew a 50-39 halftime lead on Tuesday. Lay the points.

David Chan

L.A. Lakers @ Philadelphia
PICK: Philadelphia +5.5

Rather quietly the Philadelphia 76ers have put together a 10-game covering streak. I'll ride that streak with the 76ers being a solid home 'dog to the Lakers.

This marks Los Angeles' fifth road game in eight days and third game in four nights.

The Lakers have failed to cover in nine of their last 12 games. Opponents get sky high for the two-time defending champs, especially when at home and the oddsmaker often overprices the Lakers since LA is the No. 1 public team.

The 76ers going 10-0 ATS in their past 10 games isn't a total fluke. They are much improved and competitive under Doug Collins. He's done an excellent job of fitting all of the 76ers' diverse pieces getting a strong comeback year from Elton Brand (15.5 points and 8.1 rebounds per game) and helping former UCLA guard Jrue Holiday mature into a solid point guard (14 points and 6.6 assists per game).

Philadelphia has been playing outstanding defense holding its last nine foes to 87.3 points per game. Only once during this span have the 76ers allowed more than 97 points.

The Lakers were among the top two teams in scoring, but they've tallied off a bit recently averaging 98.7 points, which is six points under their team average.

EZWINNERS

Utah Jazz -1.5

After a red hot start to the season the New Orleans Hornets have came back down to Earth. New Orleans has lost seven out of their last ten games and their three wins in that span are against teams that have a combined record of 22-48. The Hornets do not match up well with the Jazz and Utah's point guard Deron Williams has dominated in head to head meetings with New Orleans's Chris Paul and I don't expect this time to be any different. D-Will has posted three straight 30 point games and I won't be surprised to see him do it again in this game. The Jazz have won eight out of the last nine meetings between these two teams and I don't see that changing. Play on Utah.