Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Phoenix Suns +7
With fresher legs, having played just 1 game since Dec. 10, the Suns should be able to keep this one within the number. Fresh legs are a huge deal when playing as fast as Phoenix likes to play. In fact, the Suns are 22-10 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 7.5 points in these games. Dallas has played 3 games since Dec. 10. In addition, Dallas has been a poor investment at home. The Mavericks are 15-37-3 ATS in their last 55 home games and 10-25-2 ATS in their last 37 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. While Phoenix leaves plenty to be desired at the defensive end, even poor defensive teams have been able to stick with the Mavs in Dallas. In fact, the Mavs are just 6-21 ATS in home games versus teams allowing their opponents to shoot 46% or better from the floor over the last 2 seasons. Dallas is only defeating these squads by 2.5 points on average. Take the points with Phoenix tonight.
Steve Janus
1* Pacers -8.5
I see excellent value on the Pacers tonight, as they get the Cavaliers a game after they put everything on the line to beat the Heat. Cleveland has covered the spread in just two of their last nine games, and are just 5-9 ATS on the road this season. The Cavaliers are also just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Indiana on the other hand is 13-3 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons, and are 19-8 ATS in home games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. The Pacers are also a solid 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Info Plays
3* Lakers -5.5
Reasons why the Lakers will cover:
1) Los Angeles has simply dominated the 76ers of late, winning seven of their last nine games, including three straight at Philadelphia. The Lakers have won two straight on the road, and are 11-2 ATS in road games off 2 or more consecutive road wins over the last 3 seasons, while the 76ers are just 8-17 ATS in their last 25 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
2) The 76ers are just 13-28 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons, and are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
3) You want to play on - favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Lakers) - a very good team (>=+7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half,as its 62-30 since 1996.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota +9 over PORTLAND
The Trail Blazers have to be considered one of the riskiest teams in the league laying this many points. Brandon Roy is the walking wounded. He can barely walk let alone be effective, as his knees are completely gone. Against the Mav’s in its most recent game, Portland was down 20 points before the Mav’s took their foot off the pedal and allowed the Blazers to creep back in it. This is a Portland team that lacks offense big time and unless they get an absolutely huge game from Wesley Matthews or LaMarcus Aldridge, they’re in big trouble. Prior to their loss in Dallas, the Blazers scored 73 and 78 points respectively against Memphis and San An. The T-Wolves have just six wins in 26 games, which has their stock very low. However, this is a young team with a lot of upside and with at least four guys capable of putting up 20 or more. Kevin Love is a guy you can build a franchise around and with Michael Beasley and Darko Milicic surrounding him, the nucleus of this Minnesota team has been established. Portland returns home from a four-game trip, losers of the final three games. They’re beat up both mentally and physically and there’s a good chance they’ll lose this one outright, let alone cover. Play: Minnesota +9 (Risking 2 units).
Utah –1 over NEW ORLEANS
The Jazz aren’t a good team, they’re a great team with the best guard in the league in Deron Williams. You give Jerry Sloan a scheduling advantage over a reeling team and there’s not a coach in the business more prepped to take full advantage than Sloan. The Jazz are 18-8 overall and 7-3 on the road. They’re just 3-3 over its last six, which works to our advantage here because had they run the table over that stretch they’d likely be a 4½-5 point favorite. Having said that, Utah has been off since Monday and they embark on a four-game trip starting here. There’s little chance the Jazz will come up lame in the first game of this important trip that will take them to the X-Mas break. New Orleans started the year 11-0 but is now just 15-10. They barely squeaked by Sac Wednesday night at home in a game they ended up winning by just three. The Hornets will play their fifth game this week and they’ve looked progressively worse in each start. New Orleans has one guy they can rely on to score and you know for sure that Sloan will have a master plan to contain Chris Paul. The Hornets are not a difficult team to defend against because of its lack of scorers while the Jazz are pretty much impossible to contain with a slew of scorers. These two played once this year and the Jazz crushed them by 18. That’s when the Hornets couldn’t lose. Now their confidence is shattered and the beating here is likely to be worse. Play: Utah –1 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
SPORTS WAGERS
Nashville +1.22 over NEW JERSEY
The equation here is a rather simple one in that when the Devils are favored, we’ll step in against them with anyone not named the Islanders. New Jersey is coming off a shutout win over the Coyotes but so what. Phoenix didn’t show up, Ilya Bryzgalov was terrible and still the Devils didn’t look that good. This is a New Jersey team that offers up nothing as the chalk. A Nashville squad that just keeps coming will most certainly outwork the Devils here. The Preds will also face Jason Arnott for the first time since the long time Pred asked to be traded and that will add to their motivation. Interestingly enough, Ilya Kovalchuk and the Devils play in Atlanta tomorrow night and you know for sure that is on Kovalchuk’s mind. We absolutely love the fact that Martin Brodeur is coming off a shutout, as that has increased the Devils stock but truth be told, Brodeur is a huge liability in the nets. Quietly, the Preds have reeled off four in a row and seven of eight with only loss coming in OT to Atlanta. Over that stretch they’ve beaten both San Jose and Detroit and the fact that they’re a 22-cent dog here is absolutely ridiculous. Big overlay. Play: Nashville +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
Wunderdog
Oregon vs. Virginia
Play: Oregon +7.5
The Virgina Cavs have ventured into Pac-10 country twice this season and have come away a disappointing 0-2, losing by a combined total of 64 points. They stand at 6-3, but when they have faced some teams more of their ilk, they have played poorly. Oregon was taken apart by Duke, but fared very well in their other big game against Missouri, losing by just 3 points. The Ducks are coming on and have covered their last three games. Their bookend forwards Joevan Catron and E.J. Singlar will present some matchup problems for the Cavs. Virginia has struggled against the better teams as mentioned above, which has translated into a 4-9 ATS mark in their last 13 vs. a winning team. I'll like Oregon in this one.
Rocketman
Boise State @ Utah
Play: Utah -2.5
Both teams come in with identical 6-3 records overall this year. Boise State is 1-5 SU and ATS last 3 years as a road underdog of 3 points or less or a pick. Utah is 17-5 ATS last 3 years against good defensive teams allowing 64 points per game or less. Utah has a strong home court going 5-1 SU this year and 174-33 SU at home since 1997. Utes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss. Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Friday games. We'll recommend a small play on Utah tonight!
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Lakers/76ers UNDER 197.5
The Lakers have played to the Under in 4 of their last 5 and 12 of their last 15. The Under is 9-1 in the Lakers' last 10 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 14-2 in their last 16 Friday games. The NBA gets a lot of betting attention on Friday nights, especially on the public-loving Lakers. The public also loves the Over, and odds makers make sure they inflate the total on Laker games to take advantage. This is one of those instances. Bet the Under.
Jack Jones
Utah Jazz -1
Utah and point guard Deron Williams have simply had Chris Paul and New Orleans' number throughout the years. The the Jazz surging and the Hornets fading, I'll gladly take Utah as basically a pick 'em tonight. Looking to match a career high with his fourth straight game with 30 or more points, Williams will try to help the Jazz post their fifth consecutive victory in New Orleans on Friday night. The Hornets are all too familiar with what he can do. Williams, whose 55.4-percent shooting against New Orleans is his best versus any opponent, scored 27 with 16 assists in a 114-103 victory in the Jazz's last visit to Louisiana on April 9.
Chris Paul contributed 17 points and nine assists in a 105-87 loss at Utah in their only meeting this season as the Hornets lost for the 16th time in 20 matchups with the Jazz. Utah has gone 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings with the Hornets dating back to 2008. New Orleans is 4-9 in their last 13 games overall, also going 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games. Utah has gone 16-5 in their last 21 games overall. The Jazz are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Hornets are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference. New Orleans is 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win. Take the Jazz Friday.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Indiana Pacers -8.5
The Cavs are a lousy 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Indiana has already defeated Cleveland by 11 and 14 points this season. The Cavs are really struggling with 7 double-digit losses in their last 9 games. Lay the points.
Black Widow
1* on Portland Trail Blazers -9
The Blazers are happy to return home after a brutal road trip that featured games against the Mavs, Spurs, Suns and Grizzlies. Now they get one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Minnesota Timberwolves and should have no problem winning by double-digits. Portland is 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS at home this season, limiting opponents to 91.7 points/game. Few teams have been as atrocious as Minnesota has been on the road this season. The Timberwolves are 1-14 SU & 6-9 ATS on the road this year, getting outscored by 13.9 points/game. They are giving up a ridiculous 112.8 points/game away from home. This has been a one-sided series to say the least. The Blazers are 6-0 in their last 6 meetings with Minnesota, winning by 19, 28, 23, 23, 2 and 20 points. So five of their last six meetings with the Timberwolves have resulted in blowouts by 19 points or more. Take the Blazers and lay the points.
Bobby Maxwell
Miami at NEW YORK (+5)
New York proved on Wednesday night that it belonged back in the Eastern Conference playoff picture, taking the Celtics down to the wire in a 118-116 loss inside Madison Square Garden. Tonight they host the Heat and are getting way too many points. Vegas has to inflate the line on the Heat because they are so popular and draw so much money. So let’s play the smart way and take advantage of that over-compensation. Grab the points with the Knicks.
Knicks’ star Amare Stoudemire appeared to hit the game-winner against Boston on Wednesday but after review it showed he didn’t release it in time. He has been a beast since coming to New York, scoring 30 or more points in nine straight games. He’ll need to do it again tonight, but that shouldn’t be a problem against anybody the Heat tries to put on him.
Miami comes in riding a 10-game winning streak and beat the Cavs 101-95 on Wednesday, but came up well short as 16 ½-point favorites. It snapped an eight-game streak of covers for the Heat. They are on ATS slides of 1-6 after a non-cover and 0-4 against Atlantic Division teams.
New York is on several positive ATS streaks, including 18-7-1 overall, 15-5-1 as an underdog, 6-1 after getting a day off, 4-1 at home and 5-1 against Southeast Division teams.
The Knicks came close to establishing themselves as an elite team on Wednesday against Boston, tonight they will do it again. This one will be close all the way, so the smart play is to grab the points with New York. Play the Knicks tonight.
2♦ NEW YORK
Chris Jordan
Miami (-4') at NEW YORK
Kudos to Amare Stoudemire and the New York Knicks.
His old connection with coach Mike D'Antoni - from the Phoenix days - is working and they're rolling, now 2 1/2 games back of second-place Miami in the Eastern Conference.
Time for a wake-up call!
The Knicks are playing great basketball, yes. But the Heat are much better and are flexing their muscles at the right time. They have no intention of slowing down, and won't leading right up to that big game in Los Angeles, on the same day kids will be tearing through presents from jolly ol' St. Nick.
Yes, you better believe this run is being generated by the thought of taking on two-time defending NBA champion Los Angeles at the Staples Center on Chistmas Day. Some may think that's a ludicrous thought; course I could give a damn what anyone else's opinion - or lack thereof - is, since I'm the best handicapper this site has seen.
And when you have motivation like that, knowing you're counting down the days to a showdown with the best player in the league and the defending champs, a team like the Knicks won't derail your run.
So, the Knicks have won eight of nine; the Heat have won 10 straight! And there is no other arena that LeBron James loves to shine - or any marquee player for that matter - than Madison Square Garden.
And since the Knickerbockers exhausted their efforts in an emotionally draining loss to the Celtics on Wednesday, I'll bank on James and company to run away with this one.
Checking some of the betting numbers, I see both teams are on a bevy of ATS streaks, but I like the fact the Heat are on winning runs of 5-0 on the road, 4-0 as the road chalk, 8-1 after a straight-up win, 6-1 when playing on one day's rest, 4-1 in Eastern Conference play and 8-1 overall.
I know we're talking about an entirely different Knicks team now that Stoudemire is in uniform, but you'd have to admit the Heat are a little improved as well. So, it might be worth mentioning, with the old rosters, the Heat are on ATS runs of 4-1 in New York and 4-0 overall in this series.
1♦ MIAMI
Derek Mancini
Miami (-5) at NY KNICKS
I'm prepared to eat some chalk with tonight's Freebie, specifically with the Miami Heat, as they expose the Knicks for what they are - a good, but flawed basketball team.
What's the big difference between these two? Defense, plain and simple. The Heat have banded together, and are playing some of the best D in the NBA right now (88 ppg on 41% shooting L5). The Knicks on the other hand, win without playing any semblence of defense (allowing 112 ppg on 49% shooting). Something's got to give, and that something is the Knicks.
Despite their loss, Knicks backers cashed in against the Celtics and therefore are more than willing to grab the points once again with the home team here. Big mistake, as that Boston loss will linger, from a physical standpoint, but more importantly an emotional one. Knicks played their asses off and still lost, and it's going to be tough to reproduce that kind of effort tonight. Lebron/Wade love playing on the big stage at the MSG, and I expect they'll take advantage of bit of a hangover here for the Knicks.
Obviously, the Knicks have a huge edge at center, but that's fine given the Knicks have no one to match up with the Heat's Big 3. Knicks inability to stop anyone from scoring is going to come back to bite them in the ass tonight, as the Heat simply has too many options. Miami will not allow New York to get out and run like they love, prefering a more methodical approach leaning on their defense and their studs to deliver the win and cover. Lay it with Miami over New York Friday.
2♦ MIAMI
Chuck O'Brien
L.A. Lakers at PHILADELPHIA (+5)
How do you not ride the 76ers right now? All they’ve done is cover 10 consecutive pointspreads and go 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games. That includes eight straight spread-covers at home (going 7-1 SU). The only team to trip up the Sixers in their barn over the past month was the Celtics, who escaped with a 102-101 victory last Thursday, but Philadelphia took the cash as a five-point underdog.
Since starting the season 3-13, the 76ers have ripped off seven wins in nine games, as they’ve clearly become comfortable in new coach Doug Collins’ system, particularly on the defensive end of the court (Philly is allowing less than 88 points per game during its 7-2 SU run).
While the 76ers are playing their eighth home game in their last 10 (only trips to New Jersey and Atlanta), the Lakers are in the midst of a seven-game road journey. Just since last Friday, L.A. has played in Chicago, New Jersey, Washington, Indiana and now Philadelphia. And even though the Lakers have won six of their last seven (including four of five on the trip), they’re just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall and 2-6 ATS in their last eight on the road.
Because of fatigue (both teams playing their third game in four nights), this smells like a tight, low-scoring game throughout. And since the Lakers, who are coming off double-digit wins at Washington and Indiana, have gone nearly a month without three straight spread-covers, the Chuckster is grabbing the points with the best moneymaker in the NBA.
4♦ PHILADELPHIA
Scott Delaney
L.A. Lakers (-5) at PHILADELPHIA
Love Los Angeles tonight, as Kobe Bryant will celebrate his homecoming with a big performance against the Sixers.
Sure, Philly has looked a bit improved, in limiting its last three foes to less than 40 percent shooting.
But tonight the Sixers get a different animal, as the Lakers have surged offensively of late, and come in after shooting 51.2 percent from the field on Wednesday in a 109-94 win at Indiana.
The Sixers won't have an answer for the Lakers' dual threat of Bryant and Pau Gasol, not to mention the return of Andrew Bynum and addition of Joe Smith, who was acquired Wednesday in a three-team trade.
Philly is on ATS slides of 8-17 when hosting teams that win on the road and 8-29 when its catching points at home in this range.
The favorite is also 10-4 the last 14 meetings, while the road team has covered four in a row.
Lay the points with L.A.
1♦ L.A. LAKERS
Michael Cannon
Charlotte (+6') at ATLANTA
Take the points with the Bobcats tonight on the road over the Hawks.
Atlanta is struggling right now. The Hawks have lost three of their last four overall (1-3 ATS) as they try to find a way to get their offense going minus Joe Johnson.
The Bobcats haven’t been playing all that well either, but they’ve had success against the Hawks in this series.
Charlotte is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings with Atlanta.
The Hawks have also struggled at home, going 3-12 ATS in their last 15 at Phillips Arena.
Take the points with the Bobcats for the cover.
3♦ CHARLOTTE
Joel Tyson
Utah (-1') at NEW ORLEANS
Friday's comp play is to take the Jazz as the small road favorite over the Hornets.
Things have really tailed off for the Hornets who were once 11-1, but now stand at 15-10.
Utah starts a 4-game pre-Christmas road swing tonight in the Big Easy, and things have been very big and very easy in this series of late for the Jazz, as Utah has already whipped up on New Orleans by 18 points in late November, and they have won 4 in a row and 8 of the last 9 series meetings both straight up and against the spread.
The Hornets have gone a money-burning 3-13-1 against the line their last 17 games, while the Jazz is 9-4 against the spread their last 13 games.
In this near pick spot, gonna take Utah to topple New Orleans.
5♦ UTAH
Karl Garrett
Oregon at VIRGINIA (-7)
Free play tonight goes in the college ranks as I see the home court advantage really being a plus for the Virginia Cavaliers tonight.
Virginia has taken some lumps this season, but have to give the Cavaliers credit for having the balls to take to the road and play the likes of Washington, Stanford, Minnesota, and Virginia Tech.
The Cavs are off to a 3-0 straight up start, and a 1-0 spread start at home, and tonight that mark will improve, as they take on an Oregon team that has yet to play a game on the road.
I have a feeling the long road trip for the Ducks so close to the Christmas break is going to see Oregon take it on the chin in a big way.
This one may be close for a while, but traveling across 3 time zones to play their first road game of the year will be the Ducks dowfall.
Take Virginia minus the points.
3♦ VIRGINIA
Stephen Nover
Arizona State (-4') at NEVADA
Arizona State is just 4-4, but the Sun Devils still should outclass Nevada in a meeting of Pac-10 versus WAC.
The Wolf Pack are inexperienced and in rebuilding mode. Their only victory in their last eight games was against San Francisco State, a Division II team.
Scoring is a problem for Nevada. The Wolf Pack are averaging only 66.2
points a game. I see them having a lot of problems with Arizona State's complicated matchup zone defenses, a staple of highly-respected defensive guru coach Herb Sendek.
The Sun Devils are just 4-4, but their talent outmatches Nevada's by a big
margin.
Sendek is highly-regarded. Not so with Nevada coach David Carter, who remains unproven.
2♦ ARIZONA STATE